modeling overview iwmm technical team july 28, 2011
DESCRIPTION
Modeling Overview IWMM technical team July 28, 2011. SHC Process at Several Linked Scales. 5-10 year process. Regional (administrative) scale: Linking prioritization and management. Annual process. Regional / Flyway Objectives. Model. Regional / Flyway. Uncertainty. Regional - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Modeling OverviewIWMM technical team
July 28, 2011
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SHC Process at Several Linked Scales
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Flyway Scale: Prioritization
Local Scale:Management
Regional (administrative) scale:Linking prioritization
and management
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Regional / FlywayObjectives
Model
Regional Actions
Local MgmtObjectives
Model
Local Actions
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Predict Observe
Local Mgmt
Regional / Flyway
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Flyway to Region
• How is the flyway model used to inform regional guidance to local scale?
• Flyway Model analysis provides prioritization:– Relative Contribution of locale to flyway “fitness”
for each guild– Answers: How important is habitat quality at a
specific location for the entire migratory path?
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Region to Local
• How does Region use flyway model output to guide local management decisions?
• Regional Allocation routine answers:– What guild(s) should refuge be managing for given
the landscape and location in the migratory flyway?
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Local Scale
• How does local scale incorporate regional output to make efficient decisions?
• Local SDM routine determines:– Optimal management action chosen from a
discrete menu to maximize objective function given expected habitat response to each action
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IWMM Process Flowchart
GIS Analysis Flyway Model
Local Scale Model
Monitoring Data
Regional Allocation
Model
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GIS Analysis
• Create three layers at finest res (e.g. 30 meter)1. Roosting habitat layer2. Forage quality layer3. Disturbance layer
• Layers are integrated to create a summary at node scale (e.g. 20 mile)
Node Quality
RoostingChronic
Disturbance Forage
GIS Analysis Flyway Model
Local Scale Model
Monitoring Data
Regional Allocation
Model
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Integrate GIS layersAtlantic Flyway – 30m Atlantic Flyway - Node
GIS Analysis Flyway Model
Local Scale Model
Monitoring Data
Regional Allocation
Model
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Flyway Model
• Inputs– GIS maps of available
kcals, disturbance, daily gain
– Bird energetic parameters (flight cost, flight speed,…)
– Wintering and breeding sites to determine where birds “start” and “end”
GIS Analysis Flyway Model
Local Scale Model
Monitoring Data
Regional Allocation
Model
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Trajectory of Flock
20 40
20
40
60
80
20 40
20
40
60
80
20 40
20
40
60
80
20 40
20
40
60
80
20 40
20
40
60
80
20 40
20
40
60
80
0
200
400
600
800
1000
GIS Analysis Flyway Model
Local Scale Model
Monitoring Data
Regional Allocation
Model
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Regional Model
• Prioritization– Which guilds should each area (e.g. refuge)
manage for?– By guild, what locations are most important?– What changes can be expected?
• Protection• Acquisition• Habitat loss?
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Linking Flyway to Regional Allocation
Nodes
Refuge
No Action
Low Management
Medium Management
High Management
6743050
6743100
6743150
6743200
6743250
6743300
6743350
Tota
l Fly
way
Bird
Use
Day
s
Management Effort
Determining management contribution1. Virtually improve habitat quality
(e.g. add kilocalories) at each site2. Re-run flyway model3. Compare overall flyway fitness
before and after management4. Identify sites with biggest gains5. Repeat with other guilds
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Determining management contribution
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
GIS Analysis Flyway Model
Local Scale Model
Monitoring Data
Regional Allocation
Model
1. Virtually improve habitat quality (e.g. add kilocalories) at each site
2. Re-run flyway model3. Compare overall flyway
fitness before and after management
4. Identify sites with biggest gains
5. Repeat with other guilds
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Regional Allocation Model
• This information is passed to local scale model• G1 means guild 1 (e.g. dabblers)Refuge Name NodeID Objective
ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge 336 Neither
ACE Basin National Wildlife Refuge 337 G1 refuge
Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge 592 G1 refuge
Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge 593 Neither
Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge 615 G1 refuge
Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge 616 G1 refuge
Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge 637 G2 refuge
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Objectives for Alligator River and Mattamuskeet NWR complexes
• Flyway and Regional models provide refuge specific guidance on objectives that take into flyway dynamics
• These objectives inform local decisions
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Local Structured Decision Making
• More straightforward and is similar to many other local SDMs out there– Time scale: annual– State-and-transition model based on veg
monitoring metrics• Other data correlated?
– Objectives are received from region • what guilds are important
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State DefinitionsSTATE % veg interspersion
1 <34% Low2 <34% medium3 <34% High4 34-66% Low5 34-66% Medium6 34-66% High7 >66% Low8 >66% Medium9 >66% High
Action Effect on %veg Effect on interspersion
Cost
Do Nothing None None Low
Late season draw down
Small probability of decreasing Increase, decrease, or no change
Medium
Early season draw down
Small probability of increasing Increase, decrease, or no change
High
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Local Scale ResultsSTATE % veg interspersion Guild 1 only Guild 2 only Both Guilds
1 <34% Low Do Nothing Early DD Early DD2 <34% medium Early DD Early DD Early DD3 <34% High Do Nothing Early DD Do Nothing4 34-66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD5 34-66% Medium Early DD Early DD Late DD6 34-66% High Early DD Do Nothing Do Nothing7 >66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD8 >66% Medium Do Nothing Early DD Late DD9 >66% High Early DD Late DD Late DD
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Local habitat monitoring
STATE % veg interspersion Guild 1 only Guild 2 only Both Guilds1 <34% Low Do Nothing Early DD Early DD2 <34% medium Early DD Early DD Early DD3 <34% High Do Nothing Early DD Do Nothing4 34-66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD5 34-66% Medium Early DD Early DD Late DD6 34-66% High Early DD Do Nothing Do Nothing7 >66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD8 >66% Medium Do Nothing Early DD Late DD9 >66% High Early DD Late DD Late DD
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STATE % veg interspersion Guild 1 only Guild 2 only Both Guilds1 <34% Low Do Nothing Early DD Early DD2 <34% medium Early DD Early DD Early DD3 <34% High Do Nothing Early DD Do Nothing4 34-66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD5 34-66% Medium Early DD Early DD Late DD6 34-66% High Early DD Do Nothing Do Nothing7 >66% Low Early DD Early DD Early DD8 >66% Medium Do Nothing Early DD Late DD9 >66% High Early DD Late DD Late DD
Linking Flyway and Region to local habitat monitoring
Wallkill River NWR Actions
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Next Steps
• Continue work to link models to monitoring data– Models are likely to be tweaked as protocols change
• Sensitivity analysis• Include additional guilds (shorebirds)
• Work with decision-makers at:– Regional Scale (region, JVs, states)– Local Scale (refuge managers, etc)