modeling multiple ecosystem services and tradeoffs at
TRANSCRIPT
Modeling multiple ecosystem services and tradeoffs at landscape scales
Erik Nelson, Guillermo Mendoza, James Regetz, Stephen Polasky, Heather Tallis, D Richard Cameron, Kai MA Chan, Gretchen C Daily, Joshua Goldstein, Peter Kareiva, Eric Lonsdorf, Robin Naidoo, Taylor H Ricketts, and M Rebecca Shaw
December 2008
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Decision-maker questions
– What places provide the most ecosystem services?
– How would likely management scenarios affect different ecosystem services and biodiversity?
– What landscape pattern would optimize ecosystem services now and under likely scenarios?
– Who should pay whom under a proposed PES program, and how much?
InVEST
• Spatially explicit modeling tool – Multiple services– Ecological production functions – Economic valuation techniques
• Inputs:– Land use / land cover map, future scenarios– Data tables, GIS layers
• Outputs:– Biophysical production and economic value– Maps, trends, balance sheets, tradeoff analyses
• Product of Natural Capital Project
Testing ground: Willamette Valley, OR
Three scenariosof Land use change
Willamette Basin Partnership
Services / Attributes Considered
• Carbon sequestration
• Water quality
• Storm peak mitigation
• Soil conservation
• Biodiversity
• Market returns to landowners *
Comparing scenarios
More
Less
Mapping changes
Nelson, et al. in press. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
ArcGIS toolbox
http://invest.ecoinformatics.org
Key Points
• Services differ– spatial distribution– response to scenarios
• Strong spatial patterns in increase/decrease– distributional effects– management priorities
• Little evidence of trade-offs overall– Conservation scenario typically best– Market value only exception– (but that’s a big one)
Exploring tradeoffs
Exploring Tradeoffs
Nelson, et al. in press. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
Monetizing additional services
• Requires beneficiaries, locations, valuation techniques
• Three outputs• Potential supply:
• typical maps: sources• Realized supply
• actually provides benefits to someone• Value
• economic valuation of realized supply
Example: Soil conservation
• Potential supply:• sediment retention
• Realized supply• sediment retention
upstream of dams• Value
• avoided costs of dam dredging
• Same potential supply layers drive multiple values
Example: Water supply
• Potential supply:• water yield
• Realized supply• net water yield upstream
of hydro plants• Value
• value of additional power
Take homes
• Mapping multiple ecosystem services possible
• Scenarios allow assessment of tradeoffs
• Payments in theory can change these tradeoffs
• Valuation needs beneficiaries
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Thanks…NatCapKai ChanChris ColvinGretchen DailyHelen FoxPeter KareivaChuck KatzErik LonsdorfBruce McKenneyGuillermo MendozaBelinda MorrisRobin NaidooErik NelsonNasser OlweroSteve PolaskyJim RegetzSusan RuffoRebecca ShawHeather TallisChristine TamBuzz ThompsonMichael Wright
Willamette ValleyWillamette Partnership
SupportNSF-NCEASLeverhulme TrustPackard FoundationMacArthur FoundationMoore FoundationRoger and Vicki SantPeter and Helen Bing…
www.naturalcapitalproject.org
Now: can ask policy questions!
• How well will payment programs work?– changing landowner choices with PES
• Simulate different payment programs– predict landowner response– if payments exceed opportunity costs, land enrolled– different budgets
• Track improvements in two benefits– Species conservation– Market returns
Tradeoff Curves
Nelson et al. PNAS. 2007
Tradeoff Curves
Nelson et al. PNAS. 2007
• Different policies have different effects• None come close to efficiency frontier
Policy simulations
• 3 simple payment programs: – All: all landowners eligible for payments– Carbon: restrict to land that could convert to forest– Riparian: restrict to land along riparian corridors
• If payment exceeds WTA, landowner enrolls
• Various budget levels – $1 million– $5 million– $10 million
Willingness to accept payment
• How big a payment is needed for landowner to switch from current land use to conservation?
• “Opportunity costs” of conservation
REALLY Exploring Tradeoffs
• Plot full tradeoff curve for two benefits:– Species conservation: terrestrial vertebrates – Market returns: commodities and value of rural-
residential housing development
• Question:– Which landscape patterns maximize joint production?
• Explore full scenario space
Polasky, et al. 2008. Biological Conservation