modeling ira accumulation and withdrawals · abstract - empirical analysis of ira accumulation and...

Modeling IRA Accumulationand Withdrawals

John SabelhausCongressional BudgetOffice, Washington,D.C. 20515

National Tax JournalVol. Llll, No. 4, Part 1

Abstract - Empirical analysis of IRA accumulation and withdrawalpatterns is limited because information about IRA balances andflows is not available for a sample of taxpayers. This paper com-bines survey data on IRA balances with individual tax return dataon IRA flows to study IRA accumulation and withdrawal patternsacross cohorts. The analysis shoivs that IRA rules such as penaltiesfor early withdrawals and minimum distribution requirements havepredictable effects on IRAflows. The estimated propensities to con-tribute to IRAs, rollover from p7ensions, and withdrawal from IRAsare used to project IRAflows and balances in the near to mediumterm.

INTRODUCTION

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 changed policy towardsIndividual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) in several ways.

Income limits that determined eligibility for traditional de-ductible lRAs were raised, a new backloaded (Roth) IRA wasintroduced, and education expenses and first time home pur-chases were added to the list of allowable reasons for with-drawing funds from IRAs before retirement without penalty.Since 1997, further modifications to IRA law have been sug-gested, including more reasons for non-penalized withdraw-als and changing minimum distribution requirements fortaxpayers older than 70%.'

Tliere is limited empirical basis for predicting the budget-ary consequences of the proposed rule changes or evaluat-ing how those changes would impact effective taxation ofIRA saving, however, because not much is known about in-dividual patterns of IRA accumulation and withdrawal overthe life-cycle. In aggregate, IRA balances have grown dra-matically, and now account for about one-fourth of all dedi-cated-retirement accounts (employer pensions and indi-vidual accounts). Although IRAs are an important part of totalsaving, little is known about household-level accumulationand withdrawal behavior because micro data on both IRAbalances and flows for the same taxpayers are generally notavailable.

See TIAA-CREF (1998) for a description of minimum distribution require-ments and proposed changes.

865

NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL

This paper combines data on IRA bal-ances from the 1992 and 1995 Survey ofConsumer Finances (SCF) with data onIRA contributions, IRA withdrawals, andlump sum rollovers from pensions to IRAsin the 1992 and 1996 Statistics of Income(SOI) tax return files to analyze IRA be-havior across age groups.' Although in-dividuals carmot be matched across thetwo data sets, inferences can be drawnabout cohort-level hehavior, because ageis a common variable to the two data sets.For example, given IRA balances by agein the SCF and IRA withdrawals by agein the SOI, both the probability of makinga withdrawal and the average withdrawalto balance ratio by age can be computed.

The pattems of cohort-level behaviorobserved by using the two data sets inconjunction are very clear, and suggestthat the various age related IRA rules,such as early withdrawal penalties and

minimum distribution requirements, havefirst-order effects on taxpayer behavior.^Also, the estimated accumulation andwithdrawal pattems are relatively stableover the time periods considered, and aretherefore useful for modeling IRA flowsand balances at the cohort-level. The fore-casting model developed here implies(barring changes in rules such as mini-mum distribution requirements) thatwithdrawals from IRAs will grow rapidlyin the next decade as the large IRA hold-ings of young and middle-age taxpayersare subject to higher withdrawal rates.

AGGREGATE TRENDS IN IRABALANCES AND FLOWS

Aggregate IRA balances were insignifi-cant in 1980, but by the end of 1997, ap-proached $2.0 trillion (Fronstin, 1998).*Table 1 shows the sources of growth in

Year

TABLE 1AGGREGATE IRA BALANCES ANDSOURCES OF CHANGE 1981 TO 1996

(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)End of Year

BalancesDeductible

ContributionsTaxable

WithdrawalInterest &Dividends

EstimatedCapital Gains

Rollovers& Residual

iy«5jsm1987198819891990199119921993199419951996

$234.7319.2389.7451.3546,0634.4773.5863.6993.0

1,079.4U52.01,578.4

$38.237.814.111.910.89.99.08.78.58.48.38.6

n.a.n.a.n.a.11.113.917.620,626.327.133.137.345.5

$14.213.119.823.925.728.725.119.620.323.128.133.5

$S.412.6-3.120.242.0

-11.545.942.829.7

-12.2208.9167,0

$18.421.039.716.830.178.979.745.298.0

100.264.662.8

Sources; Balances are from Fronstin (1998), interest and dividends are unpublished BEA estimates based onaverage market interest and dividend payout rates applied to aggregate IRA balances by asset typecontnbution.s and withdrawals are from various SOI sources, and capital gains are estimated usiAg S&P 500December to December changed applied to the estimated equity share of IRA balances

The SOI files used here have information about the age of the taxpayer from Social Security records. Theinformation on taxpayer age is not available on the public-use SOI filesMost theoretical analysis of how IRAs should affect overall saving focuses on the trade-off between the sub-stitution effect from eliminating fhe tax on the return to saving and the windfall effect for taxpayers alreadysavmg above the IRA limits; see, for example, Burman, Cordes, and Ozanne (1990), More recent theoreticalanalysis in a stochastic setting suggests an important role for penalties, however; see Immhor iglu Imrohorogluand Joines (1998). For various empirical estimates of how IRAs affect saving, see the symposium consisting ofEngen, Gale, and Scholz (1996), Hubbard atid Skinner (1996), and Poterba, VenH, and Wise (1996)For discussion and estimates of the share of saving done through iRAs over time, also see Gale and Sabelhaus(1999).

866

Modeling IRA Accumulation and Withdrawals

IRAs from 1985 through 1996. The valuesfor end of year IRA balances are taken fromFronstin (1998). The deductible contribu-tions and taxable withdrawals are takenfrom published and author tabulated Sta-tistics of Income (SOI) micro data." Theinterest and dividends are unpublishedNational Income and Product Accounts(NIPA) estimates based on average mar-ket interest and dividend payout ratesapplied to beginning-of-period IRA bal-ances by asset type." The capital gains areestimated by applying the Standard andPoor's 500 stock index to the estimatedequity share of IRA balances, also takenfrom FronsHn (1998)/ The final column,estimated rollovers and residual, is theamount needed to reconcile each pair ofend of year balances with the reportedflows and estimated gains during the year.

Prior to the limits on deductible contri-butions in the Tax Reform Act of 1986,most of the growth in IRAs was associ-ated with deductible contributions toIRAs, though interest and dividends werealso important. More recently, stock mar-ket gains are the primary source ofgrowth, accounting for over 30 percent ofgrowth in 1995 and 1996 alone. Deduct-ible contributions have stayed almost flatin nominal terms since the option to makedeductible contributions was significantlycurtailed by the 1986 Tax Reform Act, sothat the share of growth accounted for bycontributions has dwindled to near zero.

The remaining source of growth inIRAs, for which no direct data are cur-rently available, is rollovers from 401(k)and other pension plans.** As indicated,the last column of Table 1 is the differencebetween the two end of year balances andall measured flows during the year, andis thus the sum of rollovers and estima-tion/measurement errors. In particular,the estimates include the errors associatedwith assigning capital gains incorrectly,and thus the residual plus rollover com-ponent is negatively correlated with theestimated gains component. In general,however, the data suggest that rolloversare running something near but less than$100 billion amiually, which is generallyconsistent with the estimates in Yakoboski(1997).

IRA WITHDRAWAL RATES BY AGE

To analyze IRA withdrawal behavior atthe household level one needs informa-tion about balances and withdrawals fora micro sample. Because those data are notavailable, the analysis in this section com-bines two micro data sources that togetherhave the requisite information to produceestimates of withdrawal rates across agegroups. Family-level IRA balances aretaken from the 1992 and 1995 SCF and tax-payer-level IRA withdrawals are takenfrom the 1993 through 1996 SOI microfiles.^ Although individuals cannot be

' The IRA withdrawal data are only available after 1988 because Form 1040 lumped pension and IRA distribu-tions together prior to that year.

' See Park (1996) for a general discussion of NIPA reconciliation of taxable and non-taxable income flows,which is the basis for this estimate.

" The equity share is estimated by summing mutual fund and direct stock holdings in IRAs from Fronstin(1998), and dividing by total IRAs. However, because the data is instimtionally based, and some money heldin mutual funds and brokerages is not invested in stocks, the S&P growth rate is applied to only 80 percent ofthe mutual fund and stock holdings in each year.

« The most promising source of data on rollovers from pensions to IRAs is the Form 1099R retirement incomedistribution and 5498 IRA information returns provided to taxpayers, as used and described in Yakoboski(1998, 1997, and 1994). The link between information returns and Form 1040 in the SOI sample is still in anascent stage, however, and no data are available for recent years.

" The SCF is actually conducted in the summer and early fall of the respective years; the balances were "aged"to the end of each year using monthly S&P 500 values and the Fronstin (1998) estimate of the share of IRAbalances held in equities. For a description of the SCF surveys see Kennickell, Starr-McCluer, and Sunden

867


matched across the two data sets, infer-ences can be drawn about cohort-level be-havior, because age is a common variableto the two data sets.

The most direct way to estimate thebehavioral propensities of interest usingthe two data sets is to compute the ratioof the relevant SOI flow-variable to therelevant SCF balance-variable by age. Forexample, given information about thenumber of taxpayers making withdraw-als at a certain age in the SOI and infor-mation about the number of families hold-ing IRAs at the same age in the SCF, theestimated propensity to withdrawal is justthe ratio of the two numbers. However,sampling variability complicates mat-ters—the sample sizes are too small tosupport such detailed estimates.

The solution to the sampling-variabil-ity problem used here is to "smooth" thedata series across the age distribution. Thevalues of IRA balances, withdrawals, andother statistics of interest for each pointin the age distribution are presented as"kernel-smoothed" values of all thepoints in the age distribution within a fiveyear age band, with differential weightsapplied to points in the age band basedon distance from the point being esti-mated. For example, the total withdrawalestimate for taxpayers 30 years of age isthe weighted sum of withdrawals for tax-payers aged 26 to 34, with age 30 gettingthe highest weights, ages 29 and 31 next

highest, ages 28 and 32 next, etc. Thissmoothing approach shows differences inbehavior across age groups with less sen-sitivity to sampling variability, thoughsome of the changes in behavior that oc-cur at discrete points in the age distribu-tion (59'A and 7O'A) are consequentlyblurred.

The kernel-smoothing technique, ap-plied to IRA balances in the SCF and tax-able IRA withdrawals in the SOI, is usedto produce the distributions of with-drawal rates by age shown in Figure 1.'"The fraction of balances withdrawn fromIRAs declines slightly with age in therange where withdrawals are penalized,from 2 to 3 percent when taxpayers are intheir 30s to 1 to 2 percent when taxpayersare in their 50s. Withdrawal rates rise, asexpected, for taxpayers 59'/; or older whoface no penalties—but the increase is notvery large—the kernel-smoothed pointestimate for the age 65 withdrawal rate isless than 4 percent of balances. The sig-nificant jump in withdrawal rates occurwhen taxpayers cross the age 70'/: thresh-old, at which point minimum distributionrequirements become applicable.

Figure 1 also shows that the overallwithdrawal rates for 1993 and 1996 arenearly identical across the age distribu-tion." One way to test the stability of therelationship over this period is to sepa-rately calculate withdrawal propensitiesand average withdrawal to balance ratios

(1997). There is also a slight difference in the sampling units of the SCF and SOI: the SOI is on a tax-retumbasis, wbile the SCF is based on "economic units." The main difference is that young, dependent fiit-rs in theSOI would show up as part of their parent's economic unit on the SCF, so dependent filers are excluded fromthe SOI in this analysis. The other difference is single filers living together who would characterize them-selves as an economic unit on the SCF-this group is not too large, and in any case, does not hold a lart-e stcKkof IRAs. ' "

The IRA balances in the SCF have been scaled up so that fhe aggregate IRA balances in the SCP match themstiturional aggregates in Fronstin (1998) that are reported in Table 1. The end of year SCF IRA balance for1992 was $808.7 billion, while the Fronstin (1998) estimate was S8f)3.8. By 1995, however, the SCF total balancehad grown to only $1,078.4 billion, while the Fronstin (1998) value reached $1,352-0 billion. Survey-basedaggregates are often lower than institutional measures, for a variety of reasons. In this case, it is probablyattributable to the massive surge in stock prices that raised IRA balances more than survey respondents real-ized, and thus the proportional adjustment seems appropriate.

Of course, some of this stability is to be expected because of the smoothing techniques applied to the data.However, it is important to keep in mind that these are two distinct sets of cross-sections for the two years.

868

ModelinglR A Accumulation and Withdrawals

Figure 1. Ratio of IRA Withdrawals to IKA Balances by Age

0

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75Age

by age using the 1993 SCF and SOI datasets, then use those to predict 1996 tax-able withdrawals. That ex-post simulatedvalue is $44.8 billion, which is only 1.7percent below the actual $45.5 billion levelof withdrawals.

COHORT-LEVEL IRA CONTRIBUTIONSAND ROLLOVERS

Given withdrawal rates estimated us-ing the SCF and SOI data sets together,the other ingredients needed for a cohort-level model of IRA flows and balances areon the accumulation side. Two sources ofgrowth that have a behavioral componentare contributions to IRAs and rolloversfrom pensions to IRAs. Contribution ratesand average contributions by age can bemeasured directly using the SOI, androllovers from pensions can be estimatedusing the gap between gross and taxablepension distributions on the SOI, becauseuntaxed distributions are mostly attribut-able to IRA rollovers.

Figure 2 shows the fraction of tax re-turns with IRA contributions by age onthe 1996 SOI, along with average contri-butions by age for those making contri-butions, both smoothed across the agedistribution. The fraction making contri-butions is generally low across the agedistribution, because of restrictions asso-ciated with income limits and pensioncoverage. There is some increase in con-tribution rates after age 50, and rates dropto zero after age 7QA' when deductiblecontributions are prohibited, The averagecontribution also rises slightly just beforeretirement, but the effect of the limits oncontributions ($2,000 per taxpayer) is evi-dent.

Figure 3 shows the same statistics forrollovers from pensions to IRAs, but herethe values are estimated using the gapbetween gross and taxable pension distri-butions. One cannot be certain about thefraction being rolled over, but the smallerthe taxable amount relative to the grossamount, the more likely it is to be a

869


Figure 2. IRA Contributions by Age, 1996

10

0

Average Contributions(Right Scale)

Percent MakingContributions(Left Scale)

2,500

2,300

1,500

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75Age

Figure 3. Estimated Lump-Sum Rollovers by Age, 1996

4

3

= 9

Q.

1

0

.54.53.5

2.51.50

Average Rollover(Right Scale)

Percent WithRollovers

(Left Scale)

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

030 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75

Age

870


rollover event. Thus, the estimation pro-cedure applied here is that if taxable pen-sions are less than 25 percent of gross pen-sions for a given taxpayer, the gap be-tween gross and taxable is assumed to bea rollover. One situation in which this as-sumption could be invalid is when thegross pension distribution represents areturn of after-tax employee contribu-tions; the 25 percent approximationshould exclude those cases, however, be-cause few if any pensions have after-taxemployee contributions accounting formore than 75 percent of total contribu-tions.'^ In addition, the 25 percent cutoffgenerates estimates of aggregate rolloversthat are consistent with the values inTable 1.

The estimated fraction of taxpayerswith pension to IRA rollovers is lowerthan the fraction making contributions,but average rollovers are much higher. Italso makes sense that the fraction of tax-payers with rollovers rises sharply aroundage 50, which is the point in the life-cyclewhen cash-outs of retirement or thrift sav-ing plans associated with ending of careerjobs are most likely to occur.

Table 1 and Figure 3 together suggestan interesting perspective on IRA growthin the last few years: IRAs have boomedin large part because they are a convenientplace for taxpayers to put their employer-sponsored pension wealth upon retiring.It appears that taxpayers are choosing notto take their accumulated pension wealthin the form of an annuity when they re-tire, and, given the observations on IRAwithdrawal behavior reported in the lastsection, choosing to leave those rolled-over balances in the IRA until forced tomake withdrawals. If rollovers from pen-sions to IRAs were not permitted, muchof the impending boom in taxable IRA

withdrawals projected in the next sectionwould be characterized instead as an im-pending boom in pension withdrawals.

PROJECTING IRA FLOWS ANDBALANCES

The cohort-level analysis of accumula-tion and withdrawal patterns above is putto use in this section to build a model forprojecting aggregate IRA flows and bal-ances in the near to medium term. Themodel does not attempt to explain whyaccumulation and withdrawal rates varythe way they do across age groups; theyare simply taken as given. This suggeststhat the model is useful for simulatingoutcomes under current law (because be-havior can be assumed constant) or insimple policy experiments where reason-able assumptions about changes in behav-ior can be introduced.

The model forecasts taxable withdraw-als across age groups in future years byapplying the estimated withdrawal ratesto IRA balances by age, where future bal-ances are in turn solved for by accumu-lating contributions, rollovers, and earn-ings forward using SCF balances in 1995as the starting point. The model gener-ally projects strong growth in taxable IRAwithdrawals, because the underlying dis-tributions of IRA balances and with-drawal rates by age interact such that IRAwithdrawals will continue to grow rap-idly even if the return to IRA assets slowsfrom its recent pace. The projected stronggrowth is also fairly insensitive tochanges in the age at which penalty-freewithdrawals can begin or the age atwhich minimum distribution require-ments kick in, again, because of the dy-namic link between current and futurewithdrawals.

'* The distribution of non-taxablf pension benefits is very skewed towards taxpayers where virtually the entiredistribution is untaxed, suggesting a rollover took place, [n 1996, about 90 percent of non-taxable withdraw-als occurred for taxpayers for whom less than 25 percent of the gross distribution was taxable, and about 80percent for whom less than 10 percent was taxable.

871


A few more identifying assumptions areneeded to complete the model of IRAflows and balances. Population weightsfor the forecast period are assigned usingdemographic projections for Social Secu-rity." Contribution and rollover rates byage are set using the 1996 SOI, and theaverage values are aged forward using anassumed growth rate of 4 percent, whichis the growth rate of average wages forthe last few years. The model uses actualdata on interest and dividends paid toIRAs along with levels for the S&P 500 toestimate overall returns for 1997 and 1998,the first two simulation years. For yearsafter 1998, the model baseline assumes areduction in IRA returns to a level roughlyequal to the current AAA corporate bondrate, which is 7 percent.

The simulations are also simplified byfixing withdrawal propensities and aver-age withdrawals relative to average bal-ances across four broad popula t iongroups corresponding to the distinctionsindicated by Figure 1.'"' The four broad

age groups are younger than 30, 30 to 58,59 to 69, and 70 or older. The propensityto make a withdrawal is 11.8 percent forthe youngest group, 8.8 percent for the 30-58 year old group, 28.2 percent for the 59to 69 year old group, and 93 percent forthe group 70 and older. However, the frac-tion of balances withdrawn (given a with-drawal) falls dramatically with age, from43.1 percent for the youngest, 18.2 percentfor those 30 to 58, 13.2 percent for those59 to 69, and 9.2 percent for those over 70.

Even with the conservative estimates onfuture rates of return, the underlying mi-cro-dynamics of IRA accumulation andwithdrawal suggest strong growth in boththe number and dollar value of taxableIRA withdrawals in the near to mediumterm. Table 2 shows that the number ofreturns with IRA withdrawals can be ex-pected to grow at a 5-6 percent rate in thenext few years, and total withdrawals canbe expected to cont inue growing atdouble-digit rates. Note that taxable with-drawals are expected to grow faster than

TABLE 2IRA AGGREGATE BALANCE AND WITHDRAWAL PROJECTS

Year

1993199419951996

1997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

Number ofReturns WithTaxable IRAs(Thousands)

4,3834,7775,2565,831

6,1956,5496,8997,2477,5787,8958,1948,4768,7439,0039,2779,5469,787

PercentChange

9-010.010.9

6.25.75.45.04,64.23.83-43,23-03.02.92.5

Total Taxable IRAWithdrawals

(Billions)

27,08133,10637,31745,539

56,32071,2668737797,195

107,868119,208131,124143,717156,8! 2170,401184,668199,783215,750

PercentChange

22.312.722.0

23.726.522.611.211.010.510.09.6y.i8.78.48.28.0

End of YearIRA Balances

(Billions)

9931,0791,3521,599

1,9672,3442,5362,7372,9493,1723,4073,6533,9124,1834,4674,7645,078

PercentChange

15.08,7

25.318.3

23.119.28.27-97-77.67.47.27.16.96,86.76-6

' The aging factors used here are from the 1997 Social Security Actuaries mid-range population projections.' The results are insensitive to whether the kemel-smoolhed or group-leve! parameters are used in the simuia-

tions.

872


aggregate balances through most of theforecast period, as the large holdings ofIRAs by younger and middle age taxpay-ers become subject to higher withdrawalrates.

Figure 4 shows how sensitive the fore-cast is to the assumed rate of return. If thereturn to IRAs is 150 percent of the AAAbond rate—still well below recent experi-ence—the model predicts withdrawalswill climb to near $300 billion by 2009,nearly 50 percent higher than in thebaseline. Even if the return to IRAs is only50 percent of the current AAA bond rate,the large stock of existing IRAs and ex-pected strong flow of rollovers combinedwith aging of the balances suggests with-drawals well above those in any extrapo-lation-based forecast.

Figure 5 shows the projected effect oftwo prototype policy changes on taxableIRA withdrawals. The policies consideredare (1) lowering the age at which penalty-free withdrawals can be made from 59V2to 55'/2, and (2) raising the age at whichminimum distributions must begin from70V2 to 75V2. The first simulation assumesthat people age 55 to 58 will change theirwithdrawal behavior to match those 59 to

69, which means they will have a higherwithdrawal propensity but lower averagewithdrawal (given a withdrawal). Thesecond simulation assumes people age 70to 74 will behave like those 59 to 69, whichmeans a lower withdrawal propensity(they are no longer required to make with-drawals) but slightly higher average with-drawal. As expected, lowering the pen-alty-free withdrawal age raises taxablewithdrawals, and lowering the minimumdistribution age raises taxable withdraw-als.

The effects of the two pol icy changes arenot that dramatic, however, because of thedynamic link between withdrawals overtime. If more withdrawals occur earlywhen the penalty-free withdrawal age islowered, there are fewer balances to bewithdrawn in the future. This result de-pends crucially on the fact that all balanceswill eventually get withdrawn in themodel, either by the account holder or adescendent who (by law) will make tax-able withdrawals at very high rates. Thus,raising the minimum distribution agewould temporarily delay but ultimatelynot change the impending revenue boomfrom accumulated IRA balances.

Return=10.5%

Figure 4. Sensitivity of Projected Taxable IRA Withdrawals to Rate of Return

350300

<n 250I 200i= 150" 100

500

Base Case

Return=3.5%

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008Year

873


Figure 5. Effect of Two Policy Changes on Projecfed Taxable IRA Withdrawals

350 n

300

§200= 150' " lOO

50

0

Lower Penalty-FreeWithdrawal Age

Base Case ^i}>^^^^^^^^^

^>>^r^^^^^^" Raise Early^^^^.-ri':'^^ Distribution Age

1 l l l l 1 : ' 1

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008Year

Acknowledgments

The views expressed here are those ofthe authors and do not necessarily reflectthose of the Congressional Budget Office.The author thanks David Weiner, PaulYakoboski, Jack VanDerhei, and threeanonymous referees for comments andassistance.

REFERENCES

Burman, Leonard, Joseph Cordes, and LarryOzanne.

"IRAs and National Saving." National Taxjournal 43 No.3 (September, 1990): 259-83.

Engen, Eric M., William G. Gale, and JohnKarl Scholz.

"The Illusory Effects of Saving Incentives onSaving." journal of Economic Perspectives 10

No. 4 (Fall, 1996): 113-38.Fronstin, Paul.

"IRA Assets Grew by 23 Percent During 1997."In EBRl Notes 18 No. 12; 3-7. Washington:Employee Benefits Research Institute, 1998.

Gale, WiUiam G., and John Sabelhaus."Perspectives on the Household SavingRate." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

(April, 1999): 181-224.

Hubbard, R. Glenn, and Jonathan Skinner."Assessing the Effectiveness of Saving In-centives." journal of Economic Perspectives 10No. 4 (Fall, 1996): 73-90.

Imrohoroglu, Ayse, Selahattin Imrohoroglu,and Douglas H. Joines.

"The Effect of Tax-Favored Retirement Ac-counts on Capital Accumulation." AmericanEconomic Rcvieio 88 No. 4 (December, 1998):749-68.

Kennickell, Arthur B., Martha Starr-McCluer,and Annika E. Sunden.

"Family Finances in tbe U.S.: Recent Evi-dence from the Survey of Consumer Fi-nances." Federal Reserve Bulletin 83 No. 1Oanuary, 1997): 1-24.

Park, Thae S."The Relationship Between Personal Incomeand Adjusted Gross Income." Survey ofCurrent Business 76 No. 5 (May, 1996): 55-7.

Poterba, James M., Steven F Venti, andDavid A. Wise.

"How Retirement Saving Programs IncreaseSaving." journal of Economic Perspectives 10No. 4. {Fall, 1996): 91-112.

TIAA-CREF."Distributions from Retirement Plans: Mini-mum Requirements, Current Options, andFuture Directions." Research Dialogues No.

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57. New York: Teachers Insurance and An- ington: Employee Benefits Research Insti-nuity Association-College Retirement Equi- tute, August, 1997.ties Fund, 1998. Yakoboski, Paul.

Yakoboski, Paul. "Retirement Program Lump-Sum Distribu-"IRAs: Benchmarking for the Post-TRA '97 tions: Hundreds of Billions in Hidden Pen-World." EBRI Notes 19 No. 12. Washington: sion Income." EBRI Issue Brief No. 146.Employee Benefits Research Institute, 1998. Washington: Employee Benefits Research

Yakoboski, Paul. Instihite, 1994."Large Plan Lump-Sums: Rollovers andCashouts." EBRI Issue Brief No. 188. Wash-

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