Modeling Civil Disorder

Phil GravesComputer Systems Research, 2007-8

Fourth Quarter Progress

Fixing police adjustment bug Adding simple reporter Adding geographically-oriented

statistics Pro-government legitimacy modifier Anti-government grievance modifier

Original Model Visual

Relative random distribution of active/inactive agents

Revolt Reporter Added reporter to determine when the

system was in civil disorder Easy to do within NetLogo framework Variable (Boolean) REVOLT to be of use

when possibly augmenting/decrementing government effectiveness in times of revolt

First objective on the recommended list

Government Legitimacy Modifier Nearby jailed agents increase

government legitimacy Adjusted from the extant base

(which is altered with the slider) Meant to help the model make

sense geographically Simulates a domino effect during a

government “offensive” against rebels

Grievance Modifier

Nearby active (rebelling) agents increase grievances against the government among inactive agents

Allows for a geographical effect of actually delineated regions of control

Looks less like a bloody mess and more like what actually happens in real life

Effects and Usage of Geographically Oriented Modifications More useful for

planners Serves as a

foundation for further work in two directions

Adding new geographically oriented features

Ethnic groups Heartlands Terrain

Altering government and rebel efficiency in times of “revolt”

Domino effect