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MODEL-BASED ENGINEERINGHOW CRITICAL IS SIMULATION FOR A MODEL-BASED ENTERPRISE?

A. Wood M. PanthakiK. Lunney P. SwadlingH. Tummescheit

HOW CRITICAL IS SIMULATION FOR A MODEL-BASED ENTERPRISE?

H. Tummescheit, Board Member, the Modelica Association

NAFEMS.org/SystemsThinking Pervasive Systems Thinking and Simulation RevolutionInSimulation.org/SystemsThinking

• The changing role of simulation in product development and operations

• What is needed for successful simulation in the model-based enterprise?

• What are the missing building blocks for simulation to become pervasive?

Agenda, Part I


The Changing Role of Simulation in Product Design and Operations

Once upon a time, simulation and model-based design was part of rocket science, and only feasible for extravagant projects that could afford it.

That has changed, but still, simulation and model-based design and are by far not as pervasive as they should be.



Today, even coffee-makers are designed using simulation tools, and they may have more on-board computing power than the lunar landing module had in 1969





Today, even coffee-makers are designed using simulation tools, and they may have more on-board computing power than the lunar landing module had in 1969

If we include manufacturing, even diaper production has challenges that by today, require advanced use of simulation. Quote: “The controls of a modern diaper production unit have more lines of code than the Boeing 747 flight software”




Requirements

Design

Validated system



Requirements

Design

Validated system

ModelsCalibration &

V&VOptimization Requirements

compliance

Post-processing &

Analysis

Design iterations by modeling & simulation



Requirements

Design

Validated system



Requirements

Design

Validated system


Instrument Cluster –Head up Display

SoftwareAutosar Builder

Virtual ECU (VAP)

Chassis modelController/ SIMULINK

Environment Modelwith SensorsADTF

Source: presentation by Global Automotive Advisory Group, Modelon, IPG, Dassault Systems

Simulation: from Components, to Systems, and Systems-of-Systems



Requirements

Design

Validatedsystem

ModelsCalibration &


compliance

Post-processing &

Analysis


Digital Twin

https://www.dnvgl.com/article/making-your-asset-smarter-with-the-digital-twin-63328




Requirements

Design

Validatedsystem

ModelsCalibration &


compliance

Post-processing &

Analysis


CTO of Rockwell automation, Sujeet Chand: 10% of opportunity for cost savings during design90% of opportunity is in the maintenance and operations phase.

Digital Twin





Requirements

Design

Validatedsystem

ModelsCalibration &


compliance

Post-processing &

Analysis


Digital Twin


Simulation: from simulation for designto operator training and optimized operations



• Simulation used to be so slow, engineers were glad when a few could be completed in time for decision making.

• Cloud-based or on-prem HPC-clusters allow massive scale-up of computing resources. 10,000s of simulation? Quite feasible.


Simulation: from nominal operation via design for all loading conditionsto robust optimization under uncertainty

*M. Wetter and C. van Treeck (2017). New Generation Computational Tools for Building & Community Energy Systems. Annex 60 Final Report. IEA

Example shows robust design of high-performance buildings using Modelica tools from an IEA Annex 60 publication. Combined renewable energy and building systems need to be robust to a large number of operating conditions (Wind, Irradiation, temperature


• People: We want to get simulation into the hands of more engineers. “Democratization of Simulation”.

What is needed for successful simulation in the model-based enterprise?

People

ProcessesTechnology auto

mat

e

Often called the “golden triangle”How does this relate the current challenges in engineering simulation?


Democratization of simulation requires simplified user interfaces.

Web-apps provide a solution to many of these challenges:

– Easy deployment

– Easy access to other web-based assests(maps, weather, traffic, IIoT data sources)

– Few and simple UI elements

– Open, well understood REST APIs

Who can use advanced simulations?



• Processes: The design of innovative systems requires more collaboration and integration than have been used in the past


People


mat

e




• Processes: The design of innovative systems requires more collaboration and integration than have been used in the past

• Technology: Standards are needed for interoperability. Cloud-based simulation & web-apps, REST-API’s, IIoT & access to operational data for digital twins provide the technologies to support pervasive engineering simulation


People


mat

e



• Scale: Models need to be validated to be trusted. Validation processes and deployment technologies provides the means to bring trusted models from experts to large teams for broad reuse and value creation. From one user to many.


* Thanks to Rod Dreisbach for this great phrase


• Automate and integrate: Many tools in the market are focused on automation (PIDO-tools). There are still long ways to go for full integration between e.g. systems engineering and simulation tools. Open standards and open API’s are necessary!



days minutesmonths


• Innovate: Simulation at the speed of human thought* is a game changer. Parallel simulations in the cloud, collaboration within and across organizations, access to data from the web through API’s give unprecedented productivity.



redeclare replaceable model extendsBaseProperties(T(stateSelect=if preferredMediumStatesthen StateSelect. prefer else StateSelect.default), p(stateSelect=if preferredMediumStates thenStateSelect.prefer else StateSelect.default), Xi(eachstateSelect=if preferredMediumStates thenStateSelect.prefer else StateSelect.default), finalstandardOrderComponents=true) "Moist air base properties record“;

days minutesmonths secondsyears


• Non-profit Modelica Association: – Provides a family of coordinated

standards for the modeling and simulation of cyber-physical systems.

– All standards definitions are available free of charge to anybody

– Development done in open groups of interested parties

Modelica Standards for Engineering Simulation

• A-causal, object-oriented language & free libraries for physical systems modeling and simulation.

• Transient & steady-state simulation and optimization



• Defines a container and an interface to exchange dynamic models

• Uses a combination of XML files, binaries and C code zipped into a single file

Mechanical

Electrical Fluid Power

Systems

Control

Thermal

FMUs


• Integration of FMUs for SIL & HIL

– The System Structure defined for SIL can be reused for HIL testing

– It becomes possible to reuse more models, configurations, tests, layouts and parameters

– A Data Management tool controls the lifecycle of the SSP


• Describe system configuration, structure, parameters for composite cyber-physical systems

• Components typically FMUs

SIL Integration

SIL Configuration

HIL Integration

HIL Configuration

Data Management

Model Management


Modelica Standards for Engineering Simulation• Real-time communication

protocol between distributed models

• For HiL simulations and communication between models and real systems

(e.g. enginetestbench)

RT SystemNon-RT PC or Computing Cluster

Transport protocol

Communication System

WiredCommunication

(e.g. CAN)

WirelessCommunication(e.g. BlueTooth®)

InterprocessCommunication(e.g. shared mem.)

Distributed co-simulation protocol


• Open Standards: FMI (supported by 140+ tools) and Modelica (10+ tools) have been very successful and are supported by most major vendors.

• Gap: standards bridging the gap between systems engineering and simulation– Minor exception: SysPHs, mapping of Modelica constructs to SysML

https://www.omg.org/spec/SysPhS/About-SysPhS/

– Ongoing research in Europe (ITEA3 EMBrACE) : Mapping from requirements to executable models

• Open Tools:– Getting a weather forecast in your app via an API is natural. What about requesting a simulation in

the same way? Web-API’s for simulations

– Open standards are a prerequisite.

– Currently, the status of interoperability is poor, and between Simulation & MBSE, nearly non-existent

Standards for Engineering Simulation

https://www.omg.org/spec/SysPhS/About-SysPhS/


What are the missing building blocks for simulation to become pervasive?1. Decision makers need to better understand the ROI of simulation and

model-based engineering vs. more traditional methods (tests, document based engineering)

– The devil is in the detail. Simulation based design will often still need some tests, but often simpler and much cheaper tests.


What are the missing building blocks for simulation to become pervasive?1. Decision makers need to better understand the ROI of simulation and

model-based engineering vs. more traditional methods (tests, document based engineering)

– The devil is in the detail. Simulation based design will often still need some tests, but often simpler and much cheaper tests.

2. Democratization of engineering simulation needs to make real progress– Business models and design processes need to evolve to achieve this. Deploying a model-based

design app needs to be quick, easy and affordable.


What are the missing building blocks for simulation to become pervasive?3. Seamless integration between Systems Engineering tools and System

Simulation tools– The state-of-the-art is still quite frustrating




4. Continued development of interoperability standards– ISO 243 (formerly known as MOSSEC) is under development, and so are LOTAR (Long Term

Archiving and Retrieval) standards




4. Continued development of interoperability standards– ISO 243 (formerly known as MOSSEC) is under development, and so are LOTAR (Long Term

Archiving and Retrieval) standards

5. Simulation at the speed of human thought come true– Cloud-based compute resources and good web-apps put this in reach, but we are not quite there

yet

SYSTEMS & SIMULATION PERSPECTIVE ON MODEL-BASED ENGINEERING (MBE)

Kerry LunneyPresident, INCOSECountry Engineering Director,Thales Australia

Photo of Speaker

Philip SwadlingChair, Simulation AustralasiaTechnical Director, AvionicsThales Australia


• An example of MBE –MBE = Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) + Simulation (Sim)

• Challenge is to know the balance between MBSE & Sim on a project –

– What is the breadth & depth of MBSE representations?

– Where is the focus for Sim?

– What is the level of fidelity of the Sim?

• Must remember the feedback loop between MBSE & Sim

From a Systems-Thinking Approach

Model Based Engineering (MBE)

MBSE Sim


• Requirements interpretation

• Architecture development, incl -– Multiple viewpoints, eg safety, security, reliability, resilience

• Mission threads & operational scenarios – development & verification

• Boundary conditions –– Interfaces

– States & modes transitions

– Information exchange

• Overall performance measurements

• Integration challenges

• System level “what ifs”

Benefits

• Digital engineering enabler

• Improved system design

• Reduce rework

• Improved knowledge transfer

• And many more

When MBSE is Favourable


MBSE

Sim


• Detailed analysis is required in a specific area of concern

• When testing in the real operational environment is limited/not possible

• The user experience is key –– Human Factors

– Safety

– Workload

– Automation vs semi-automation vs manual

• Development & execution of scenarios are criticality

• Risk of failure is high

• Mission level and/or capability “what ifs”

Benefits

• A safer environment to try “what ifs”

• Cost effective alternative

• Preservation of human life

• Increased confidence & flexibility

• Better decision making

When Sim is Favourable


MBSE

Sim


• Healthcare system provides many relevant examples– COVID-19 modelling done at the local area, city and country levels

(and international) to aid decision making

• Use of modelling and simulation is growing in importance with increased pressure on health budgets and expectations of improved outcomes

• Principles of systems thinking very important in this context

– Ensure all stakeholders are considered

– Important to understand relevant processes & external interfaces

– Even seemingly simple situations quickly become very complex

• Example of use of modelling and sim in the design of a new hospital, or in planning upgrades

Modelling and Sim at the Enterprise Level


Example – Hospital Services Enterprise

SOI

Wider SOI

Environment

Wider Environment

Hospital Services

Real Estate

HealthcareProviders

PatientsIT

Supply Chain

HospitalPolicies

NationalRegulations

StateRegulations

Pharmaceuticals/Dispensary

Utilities

Road Access

Transportation

Support Staff

Network

Facilities

Air Access

Education Levels

Admin StaffHospital Services:• Emergency Care• Intensive Care• Non-intensive Care• Day Patient Care• Diagnostics• Training• Research


Example – Hospital Services Primary InterfacesEmerg’y

Care X X X X X X X X X X

Intensive Care X X X X X X X X X

X Non-IntenCare X X X X X X X X X

X X Day P’tCare X X X X X X X X

X X X X Diagnostic X X X X X X X

X X X X X Training X X X X X X X

X X X X X X Research X X X X X X

X X X X X X X Admin Staff X X X X X

X X X X X X X X Support Staff X X X X

X X X X X X X X X H’th Care Providers X X X

X X X X Pharm’l / Dispens’y X X X

X X X X X X X X X X X IT X X X

Utilities X X

X X X X X X X X X X X X X Facilities X

X X X X X X X X X X X X X Patients


Example – Hospital Services Primary InterfacesEmerg’y

Care X X X X X X X X X X

Intensive Care X X X X X X X X X

X Non-IntenCare X X X X X X X X X

X X Day P’tCare X X X X X X X X

X X X X Diagnostic X X X X X X X

X X X X X Training X X X X X X X

X X X X X X Research X X X X X X

X X X X X X X Admin Staff X X X X X

X X X X X X X X Support Staff X X X X

X X X X X X X X X H’th Care Providers X X X

X X X X Pharm’l / Dispens’y X X X

X X X X X X X X X X X IT X X X

Utilities X X

X X X X X X X X X X X X X Facilities X

X X X X X X X X X X X X X Patients

Non-IntenCare


Example – Non-Intensive Care Services Model

Patient Arrives

Patient Leaves

Admit Patient Accommodate Patient

Monitor Patient Treatment? Surgery?

Conduct Treatments

Conduct Surgery

Ready to Leave? Discharge PatientYes

Yes

Yes

No

No

No

Process

Key:



Patient Arrives

Patient Leaves



Conduct Treatments

Conduct Surgery


Yes

Yes

No

No

No

Regulations, Policies,Referrals, Schedules,

Insurances, Procedures,…

Policies, Procedures, Rosters, Security,

Patient Care Program, …

Policies, Procedures,Rosters, Data

Management, Patient Care Program,…

Policies, Procedures, Rosters, Schedules,

Security, Privacy, Patient Care Program,…





Controls

Process

Key:



Patient Arrives

Patient Leaves



Conduct Treatments

Conduct Surgery


Yes

Yes

No

No

No











Admin Staff, IT Business Systems Reception Area,

Waiting Area, Building Access,

Utilities,…

Support Staff, Healthcare Providers, IT Business Systems,

IT Healthcare Systems, Beds,

Ward/room, Waiting Area, Utilities,…


IT Healthcare Systems, Medical

Equipment & Drugs, Dispensary, Utilities,…



Equipment & Drugs, Dispensary,

Treatment Rooms, Utilities,…



Equipment & Drugs, Dispensary, Theatre/

Recovery Rooms, Utilities,…



Admin Staff, IT Business Systems


Utilities,…

Controls

Resources/Enablers

Process

Key:



Patient Arrives

Patient Leaves



Conduct Treatments

Conduct Surgery


Yes

Yes

No

No

No











Admin Staff, IT Business Systems Reception Area,


Utilities,…


IT Healthcare Systems, Beds,

Ward/room, Waiting Area, Utilities,…



Equipment & Drugs, Dispensary, Utilities,…



Equipment & Drugs, Dispensary,

Treatment Rooms, Utilities,…



Equipment & Drugs, Dispensary, Theatre/

Recovery Rooms, Utilities,…



Admin Staff, IT Business Systems


Utilities,…

Controls

Resources/Enablers

Process

Key:

Cloud Services?

Architecture?


• Discrete Event Modelling is modelling a system/process as a series of occurrences over time (or discrete events)

• A system can be represented by various behaviours and functions in a discrete event model - such as state machines or statistical functions

A Key Tool - Discrete Event Simulation

Entities/Objects

Series of Events/Processes

Set of Decisions


• Example from UK – Hospital Operations Modelling Dashboard– Used by hospital managers to visualise existing scenarios, predict impact of future demand,

manage layout changes, analysis impact of changes on cost, patient wait time and facility utilisation

– Uses Rhinocerus 3D modelling tool for visualisation and an agent–based simulation tool

– Critical requirement was that the tool needed to be easy to use, with minimal training

• Need to balance patient waiting time, maximising use of available space and keep costs within budget

• First step was to capture data regarding the “as is” situation

Modelling an Emergency Department

From Modelling & Simulating Hospital Operations in a 3D Environment , Greenroyd FL, Price A, et al, proceedings of 2017 Winter Simulation Conference


• Three alternative scenarios modelled, with the objective of reducing patient wait time without adding cost

– no change

– Additional rooms for triage

– New process, same rooms

• Metrics used– Number of patients waiting

– Total treatment time per patient

• Results indicated adding rooms actually increased average wait time, while alternative process reduced time

From Modelling & Simulating Hospital Operations in a 3D Environment , Greenroyd FL, Price A, et al, proceedings of 2017 Winter Simulation Conference

Modelling an Emergency Department (ctd)


• Another multidimensional optimisation problem

• Modelling and simulation used to optimise training system design, for example:

– Number of instructors

– Number of classrooms

– Number and types of training media (eg simulators)

• To achieve a required throughput of students

• Model used to review robustness of potential solutions against:

– Instructor unavailability due to illness

– Unavailability of training media

Modelling a Training System

THANK YOU!

Kerry Lunney CPEng EngExe ESEPThales Australia Country Engineering Director / Chief EngineerINCOSE President [email protected]

Philip Swadling Thales Australia Technical Director, AvionicsChair, Simulation [email protected]

Hubertus Tummescheit, PhDBoard Member, Modelica AssociationEmail: [email protected]

THANK YOU!

Q&A(PLEASE SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS USING THE Q&A PANEL ON THE RIGHT)

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