mobile payment trends 2014

Copyright © 2013 Appinions. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2014 Appinions. All rights reserved.

Digital Mobile Payments An Industry Influence Study

March 2014


The payments market is changing, as smart mobile devices, always-on internet access, disruptive startups, and emerging technologies are challenging the long-standing status quo of the payments world. In March 2014, the Appinions data journalism team looked at the Digital Mobile Payments marketplace to understand the role key companies are playing in terms of influence and which conversations are having a measurable impact. The results revealed clear winners and losers, and stark trends including:

v  Net influence score has nearly doubled since Apple’s Tim Cook discussed his plans.

v  Key players from six different industries have demonstrated influence in this category.

v  Paypal and Square are by far the most dominant mobile payment firms.

v  All traditional payment providers (except MasterCard) and all US Banks are absent.

v  International banks and wireless providers are significantly more influential than US firms. Appinions applies our patented technology to the calculation of a Net Influence Score (NIS) for any person or company who has expressed a topically relevant opinion and elicited a reaction from others. We completed full-text analysis on approx. 2.25 Billion documents between 12/7/13 and 3/6/14 for this research. A more complete discussion of our methodology is included at the conclusion of this report.

Introduction & Key Insights

About Our Research


1.  The 90-Day Influence Trend in Mobile Payments A graph of the daily Net Influence Score (NIS) of all mobile payments conversations.

2.  Mobile Payment Influence by Industry A comparison of the NIS on mobile payments on an industry-by-industry basis.

3.  Top 10 Influential Companies & Top 10 Influential Execs Ranked lists of the highest individual influencer scores on the topic of mobile payments.

Ø  Most Influential Companies By Industry: 4. Payment Tech 5. Device Manufacturers 6. Retailers 7. Banks

8.  When Influencers Speak: Top Payment Tech Themes Summary of the payment companies mentioned most frequently by all mobile payment influencers.

9.  Influence In Perspective: Mobile Payments vs Business Events Comparison of key mobile payment event to other business events in terms of Net Influence Score.

Table of Contents


6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

12/7 12/21 1/4 1/18 2/1 2/15 3/1

Influential Mobile Payment Conversations Surged in 2014, Following Apple’s Interest in Market Entry

Net Influence Score

PayPal contributed 42% of eBay's revenues in Q3 2013, and PayPal expects to process $20B in mobile payments in 2013, a 500% increase since 2011. -PayPal, via SeekingAlpha, 12/11/13

Apple is laying the groundwork for an expanded mobile-payments service, leveraging its growing base of users and the hundreds of millions of credit cards on file.

- Apple, via Wall Street Journal, 1/24/14

“We're just beginning to appreciate the full magnitude and possibilities of the Starbucks mobile payment platform opportunity.”

– Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks, via Daily Finance, 1/29/14

Bank of Beijing Co, a mid-sized lender, announced a partnership with smartphone maker Xiaomi Tech on mobile payments and sales of WMPs and insurance products.

– Bank of Beijing, via Reuters, 2/23/14

MasterCard is planning to acquire digital wallet provider C-SAM, which already powers commercial mobile payments pipelines worldwide, including ISIS in the United States.

– MasterCard, via ZDNet, 2/24/14

0

1 90-DAY INFLUENCE TREND

4


Companies From Six Different Industries are Influencing the Mobile Payments Conversation

Wireless (Network Providers)

Device Makers

Payment Services (Traditional)

Payment Services (Mobile)

Retailers and Services

Financial Institutions

Verizon Vodafone (India) Rogers (Canada) Telus (Canada)

China Mobile (China) Deutsche Telekom (Germany)

OpenTable Starbucks Amazon

eBay Chipotle

Whole Foods

Bank of Beijing (China), Royal Bank of Canada (Canada)

BMO (Canada) HSBC (UK)

Central Bank of Nigeria (Nigeria) Barclays (UK)

ICICI Bank (India) Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (Zimbabwe)

Standard Bank (Kenya)

PayPal LevelUp Braintree Venmo Square Clinkle

UniteU Technologies Seamless Payments AB (Sweden)

Kopo Kopo (Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania)

MasterCard SinglePoint VeriFone

Apple Google

Microsoft Samsung

Xiaomi (China) Motorola

Broadcom

2 MOBILE PAYMENTS INLUENCE BY INDUSTRY


A Diverse Set of Companies & CEOs Are Driving Influential Conversations on Mobile Payments

NIS Top 10 Most Influential Executives 242 Tim Cook - CEO, Apple 104 Howard Schultz - CEO, Starbucks 80 Carl Icahn - CEO, Icahn Enterprise 32 Lucas Duplan - CEO, Clinkle 30 Caroline Potter - Chief Dining Officer, OpenTable 29 Mark Egerman - Co-Founder, Cover 27 Ben O Dwyer - Founder, CardFellow 26 David Marcus - President, Paypal 23 Tiffany Fox – Sr. Director, Corporate Communications, OpenTable 22 John Donahoe - CEO, Paypal

NIS Top 10 Most Influential Companies

330 Apple 198 PayPal 152 OpenTable 80 Starbucks 70 MasterCard 55 Amazon 46 eBay 40 Google 29 Bank of Beijing (China) 27 Verizon

Most Influential Opinions

3 THE TOP 10 INFLUENCERS

Mobile payment is an area that has “intrigued” Apple and mobile payment is figured in the company’s thinking around Touch ID.

-  Tim Cook, CEO, Apple, via TechCrunch

PayPal contributed 42% of eBay's revenues in Q3 2013, and PayPal expects to process $20B in mobile payments in 2013, a 500% increase since 2011.

-PayPal, via SeekingAlpha

Apple is laying the groundwork for an expanded mobile-payments service, leveraging its growing base of users and the hundreds of millions of credit cards on file.

- Apple, via Wall Street Journal

“We're just beginning to appreciate the full magnitude and possibilities of the Starbucks mobile payment platform opportunity.”

– Howard Schultz, CEO, Starbucks, via Daily Finance


Among Payment Players, PayPal Leads in Influence, While Visa and AMEX Have Zero Impact

0.0

0.0

1.7

3.4

3.6

6.2

6.6

8.1

8.7

10.6

12.4

17.4

69.7

197.8

0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0

MasterCard takes a leadership role through an acquisition of C-SAM and a series of partnerships, such as the one with German telecom companies.

PayPal has had more influence than all the other

companies combined

Visa and Amex missing from the conversation.

Net Influence Score

4 INDUSTRY SURVEY: Payment Companies


Among Device Mfgs, Apple Dominates With Nearly Ten Times the Influence of Google

0.2

0.9

2.4

2.9

7.8

9.9

11.6

13.5

16.9

23.5

26.9

39.5

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Xiaomi Tech disrupts the Chinese market.

Net Influence Score

5 INDUSTRY SURVEY: Device Manufacturers

330.2

Leading national wireless network providers are proving to be key

partners across the globe in implementing mobile payments. Is Verizon going to help establish the

standard for the U.S.?

Deutsche Telekom’s influential opinions are about their operations in Germany.


Leading Edge Retailers Are Testing Programs And Making An Impact In The Payments Conversation

9

3.7

11.2

38.9

46.5

55.4

80.5

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Whole Foods

Chipotle

OpenTable

eBay

Amazon

Starbucks Starbucks is doubling down on its mobile payments business, as we reported in a recent edition of our Payments Insider newsletter.

- Starbucks, via Business Insider, 1/31/14

Amazon is hoping to sell retailers a Kindle-based retail checkout system, likely positioned like Square and other providers of mobile credit card reader systems.

- Amazon, via Wall Street Journal, 1/29/14

eBay is pushing the envelope in digital payments and could even eliminate the need for a point-of-sales system because of its global reach and innovation.

- eBay, via Motley Fool, 12/31/13

Whole Foods announced early Tuesday that it has partnered with Square to bring Square Register and Square Stand to select Whole Foods stores around the country.

- Whole Foods, via the Street, 2/11/14

Officials at Chipotle Mexican Grill, which has offered mobile ordering since 2009, said last week they plan to invest $10 million to further develop its mobile platform, including adding mobile payment.

- Chipotle, via Nations Restaurant News, 2/10/14

Net Influence Score

OpenTable announced a pilot program that allows mobile device customers to pay their checks at participating restaurants in the San Francisco area.

- OpenTable, via TMC Net, 2/11/14

6 INDUSTRY SURVEY: Retailers


International Banks Demonstrate Influence, While US Banks are Noticeably Absent

0.3

0.5

1.2

1.5

2.0

5.1

10.0

24.7

28.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (Zimbabwe)

Central Bank of Nigeria (Nigeria)

HSBC (UK)

Standard Bank (Kenya )

ICICI Bank (India)

Barclays (UK)

BMO (Canada)

Royal Bank of Canada (Canada)

Bank of Beijing (China)

Central Bank of Nigeria

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe

Net Influence Score

7 INDUSTRY SURVEY: Banks


93

202

319

383

487

536

748

1682

1851

0 500 1000 1500 2000

LevelUp

Venmo

Clinkle

Isis

Cover

Google Wallet

Stripe

Square

PayPal

When Influencers Talk About Mobile Payments, PayPal and Square Get the Most Attention

11

Influence Score of conversations

8 TOP PAYMENT TECH THEMES

Square garnered a lot of attention for a company that itself has earned relatively little influence (See page 7). They’re getting

about 15x more attention than comparable companies.


Apple’s Announcement, While The Most Influential Event in Mobile Payments, Garnered Only Moderate Reaction

As Compared With Other Business News

1,560

2,931

4,040

4,918

6,097

11,191

12,091

15,561

17,421

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

Launch of Pebble Steel

LG's launches 4k TV at CES

Apple Announces Interest in Mobile Payment

Samsung's Launches 4k TV at CES

Google Acquires Nest

Lenovo Acquires Motorola

CVS Announces It Will Exit Cigarette Business

Microsoft Announces a New CEO

Comcast Announces Plans to Acquire TWC

Measured Influence From Recent Business Events

Net Influence Score

9 INFLUENCE IN PERSPECTIVE


Appinions Methodology Appinions measures influence by completing a full-text analysis on hundreds of millions of documents representing opinions from offline and online news sources, blogs, forums, and social media. Our patented technology measures the ability to generate significant reactions and attention, which we represent as an Influence Score assigned to people, companies, themes, or topics. In this report we looked at over 200 million opinions (within over 2 billion documents reviewed) between December 7, 2013 and March 6, 2014.

What is an Influencer? An influencer is a person, brand or company that expresses a contextually relevant opinion that is meaningful enough to elicit reactions from others. Appinions reviews full-text from online, offline, and social sources, and calculates influence scores for each person or company who shared an opinion which generated a meaningful reaction. A meaningful reaction is a comment, quotation, link, like, or other responsive act. Our scoring algorithm considers: 1.  Which people or entities reacted to an opinion, weighted by their respective influence on that topic; 2.  What is the credibility of the outlet where the reaction was published or consumed; and 3.  The volume of reactions generated based on the opinions of that influencer over the past 60 days.

Someone who publishes their opinions frequently, even if in high-profile locations, would not be considered an influencer if other people don’t react to those opinions in a meaningful way.

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About Appinions Appinions is an influence marketing platform. Our software enables marketers to identify, manage, and analyze the impact of influence in their business. Appinions reveals the people, topics, content, and sources that are having a measurable impact on any marketplace. Fortune 1000 clients use Appinions to strategically drive their content marketing, executive influence, product launch, events, and more.

Customers

Oracle, Dell, Xerox, PwC, Aflac, Nissan, and American Airlines are among the companies that rely on Appinions to keep them aware and engaged. Appinions also publishes reports with partners such as Forbes, USA Today, and The Economist.

Technology

The Appinions platform is built on more than a decade of research conducted at Cornell University. It’s patented technology extracts and aggregates opinions from more than 25 million articles every day including offline media, newspapers, magazines, blogs, forums, and social networks, and determines influence rankings based on reactions that have been generated.

To learn more, or schedule a personal conversation:

visit http://www.appinions.com

or write us at [email protected]


Appinions Inc. 18 East 41st Street New York, NY 10017 www.appinions.com [email protected] (646) 532-3062 Twitter: @appinions

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