mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ...€¦ · social interactions in place as of...

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 15

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• According to data from Johns Hopkins University, the number of new recorded cases

on September 14 – coming in at 195,764 – was the lowest 24 hour total since July

13. However, this number is misleading as no data was provided for India – currently

recording the highest number of new cases on a daily basis worldwide. This was the

same case for fatalities on September 14, with India providing no data for the

proceeding 24 hours.

• The average daily increase in cases across the past week in the United Kingdom has

stood at over 3,000 per day for the past three days. This is the first time the country

has recorded a sustained breakout in cases of the coronavirus since May 13, when

the country remained in full lockdown. The government is hoping new restrictions on

social interactions in place as of September 14 will contribute to a slowdown in case

growth.

• France recorded its largest daily increase in cases since April 12 on September 14,

with 22,977 new cases added to the total. The number records cases across the

weekend of September 12 and 13 when no new cases were reported. The average

number of fatalities from COVID-19 across the past week was recorded at 32 per day

on September 14. This is the highest average daily increase across a week since

June 22.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 15. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

14-Jun 14-Jul 14-Aug 14-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Data correct as of 1000BST September 15. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain,

Sweden and the UK not available. No new case or fatality data from India on September 14.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases in Past 24

Hrs

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past 24 Hrs

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 29,190,588 195,764 19,870,431 927,249 3,376 3.2 0.94%

Argentina 565,446 9,909 428,953 11,667 315 2.1 2.13%

Australia 26,739 47 23,577 816 0 3.1 0.20%

Belgium 94,306 851 N/A 9,927 2 10.5 0.87%

Brazil 4,345,610 15,155 3,770,138 132,006 381 3.0 0.67%

Canada 140,098 1,458 123,120 9,229 9 6.6 0.61%

Chile 436,433 1,685 407,725 12,013 64 2.8 0.40%

China 90,219 22 85,102 4,735 1 5.2 0.02%

Colombia 721,892 5,573 606,925 23,123 199 3.2 1.03%

France 425,870 22,977 90,432 30,958 55 7.3 2.16%

Germany 263,222 1,485 235,034 9,356 2 3.6 0.53%

Hong Kong 4,971 14 N/A 101 1 2.0 0.24%

India 4,846,427 0 3,859,399 79,722 0 1.6 1.79%

Iran 404,648 2,619 348,013 23,313 156 5.8 0.57%

Italy 288,761 1,008 213,950 35,624 14 12.3 0.50%

Japan 75,914 268 66,901 1,455 7 1.9 0.72%

Mexico 671,716 3,335 564,053 71,049 228 10.6 0.75%

Peru 729,619 6,787 573,364 30,710 184 4.2 0.80%

Russia 1,064,438 5,414 881,693 18,573 56 1.7 0.51%

Saudi Arabia 326,258 607 303,930 4,305 37 1.3 0.21%

Singapore 57,454 48 56,802 27 0 0.05 0.10%

South Africa 650,749 956 579,289 15,499 52 2.4 0.25%

South Korea 22,391 106 18,878 367 4 1.6 0.63%

Spain 593,730 27,404 N/A 29,848 101 5.0 1.77%

Sweden 86,505 0 N/A 5,846 0 6.8 0.16%

UK 371,125 2,621 N/A 41,637 9 11.2 0.84%

US 6,553,399 33,826 2,474,570 194,493 422 3.0 0.56%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Belgium

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000


Canada

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000


India

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Japan

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 15, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 14. Countries in descending order of new cases: US, Spain, France, Brazil, Argentina,

Peru, Colombia, Russia, Israel, Philippines.

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 14. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Spain, Israel, Bahrain,

Costa Rica, France, Montenegro, Argentina, Peru, Bahamas, Kuwait. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 14. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama,

Chile, Kuwait, Peru, Brazil, US, Israel, Oman. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 14. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: US, Brazil, Argentina,

Philippines, Mexico, Colombia, Peru, Iran, Indonesia, Spain.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 15. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Argentina, Costa Rica, Peru,

Bolivia, Colombia, Suriname, Chile, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eswatini, Bahamas. Countries with population below 100k

excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 15. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,

Bolivia, Chile, Brazil, Ecuador, UK, Italy, US. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ...€¦ · social interactions in place as of...

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