mista geopolitics annual report 2017 - sei...wp 5: foresight: sweden in a changing geopolitical...
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ANNUAL REPORT 2017
EDITORIAL TEAM: KEVIN M. ADAMS, BRENDA OCHOLA, AND EVA KRUTMEIJER
THIS ANNUAL REPORT CAN BE DOWNLOADED ONLINE AT WWW.MISTRA-GEOPOLITICS.ORG
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MISTRA GEOPOLITICS ONE YEAR DOWN THE LINE: AN INTRODUCTION BY BJÖRN-OLA LINNÉR
WHAT IS MISTRA GEOPOLITICS?
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT/
RESEARCH HIGHLIGHT/
KEY OUTPUTS/
WP 1: GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY IN THE ANTHROPOCENE
WP 2: IMPACT PATHWAYS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
WP 3: GOVERNANCE RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL RELATED SECURITY RISKS
WP 4: THE INTER-RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SHIFTING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPES AND THE SDGS
WP 5: FORESIGHT: SWEDEN IN A CHANGING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE
BORDERLESS CLIMATE RISKS: MISTRA GEOPOLITICS AT COP23
CLIMATE SECURITY GOVERNANCE: A NEW RESEARCH AGENDA
EVENTS AND PUBLICATIONS
HOW DO WE WORK?
WHO ARE WE?
2017 FINANCIAL SUMMARY
CONTENTS
m i s t r a g e o p o l i t i c s
MISTRA GEOPOLITICS – ONE YEAR DOWN THE LINE A N I N T R O D U C T I O N B Y P R O G R A M M E D I R E C T O R B J Ö R N - O L A L I N N É R
It is a great pleasure to look back and
reflect on our first year of progress in
Mistra Geopolitics. Thanks to the efforts
of the host institution and our partners,
the research programme was officially
launched in early May and was able to
complete, as planned, all necessary
start-up activities to begin our work. For
the first year of mobilizing a large and
diverse consortium, I am extremely
impressed by what has been
accomplished to date.
In only a few short months,
programme researchers have already
displayed broad engagement with the
Mistra Geopolitics agenda, presenting
work that ranges from migration,
mobility, and development in the context
of Africa-EU relations, global climate
policy after the Paris Agreement and
under US President Donald Trump, to
the weaponisation of food security in
Russia and China, and work on
emerging transboundary climate risks.
Mistra Geopolitics has been represented
at a wide range of international
conferences and topically relevant
stakeholder workshops.
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m i s t r a g e o p o l i t i c s
The Mistra Geopolitics website,
www.mistra-geopolitics.org, is flourishing
with updates and insightful comments
from our invited guests, board members,
researchers and PhD candidates. Under
the hashtag #MistraGeopolitics, many
programme participants are not only
reporting from events and announcing
publications, but engaging in societal
and scientific debates. Mistra Geopolitics
researchers have been widely visible as
they have provided commentary on
geopolitics and sustainable
development, including through media
appearances.
In the coming year, we hope to build on
this encouraging start, in part by
heightening our collaboration with
programme partners both in and outside
of academia. We are excited to see new
original research outputs from all across
the research programme, as well as
inspiring interactions with research
school participants. It is with pride and
optimism that I look forward to the future
of Mistra Geopolitics.
Björn-Ola Linnér
Programme Director
Professor in Environmental Change at
Linköping University
While we anticipated that analyses of the
intersections between geopolitics,
security, and environmental change were
topical and timely, we have been
overwhelmed by the profound interest
and widespread support for the
programme. Thus far, we have
participated in activities with numerous
organisations, including the European
Commission Joint Research Centre, the
EU External Action Service, the United
Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, the OECD, the Green
Climate Fund, the Swedish Ministry for
Foreign Affairs, the Swedish Ministry for
the Environment, the Reference Group
for the Swedish Security Council, the
Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency,
and multiple county administrations.
Relatedly, we are continuing to
collaborate closely with our stakeholder
partners, and have recently launched a
Breakfast Seminar series which has
attracted a great deal of interest.
In parallel to our research outputs, the
Mistra Geopolitics Research School
has recruited eight promising PhD
candidates, many of whom are already
contributing to advancing knowledge in
this critical research field. In addition,
three guest PhD researchers from Brazil,
Peru, and Nigeria will join the school in
the autumn of 2018, with the aim of
fostering global collaboration and
capacity-building to analyse and respond
to the geopolitics of sustainable
development.
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We live in a complex world. The Mistra
Geopolitics research programme is designed
to explore, analyse, and understand this
complexity, specifically at the intersection of
sustainability and security.
Could radical emission reductions under the
Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree target affect
the short and medium-term prospects for
human security and development?
How could Russia’s geopolitical calculus be
affected by an accelerating shift toward
renewables and thereby reductions in oil and
gas prices?
Will the combination of shifting demographic
structures in the Middle East and North
Africa and mounting environmental
pressures influence social instability and
encourage transnational migration into
Europe?
WHAT IS MISTRA GEOPOLITICS?
m i s t r a g e o p o l i t i c s
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These questions help to demonstrate the
way that environmental change interacts in
important ways with social, political, and
economic forces. Uncertainties surrounding
our collective future continue to grow, and
there is ample reason to believe that broad
geopolitical shifts will have far-reaching
implications for global governance and the
pursuit of sustainable development. The
dynamic linkage between geopolitical and
environmental change forms the basis of our
work in Mistra Geopolitics, where we aim to
unpack the tension between challenges and
opportunities in this era of unprecedented
social transformation.
HOW CAN OUR WORK CONTRIBUTE?
The overall goal of Mistra Geopolitics is to
critically explore the interaction between
geopolitics, security and environmental
change. In a world characterized by growing
uncertainties, the programme will contribute
new knowledge while demonstrating
opportunities created by innovation and
technological development in a number of
areas.
The broad nature of this complex challenge
requires an inter-disciplinary approach. The
programme brings together diverse
disciplines and research approaches
spanning peace and conflict, human
security, global environmental change, and
the effectiveness of domestic, regional, and
global governance.
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CLIMATE SECURITY GOVERNANCE: A NEW RESEARCH AGENDABy: Lisa Dellmuth and Maria-Therese Gustafsson, Stockholm University
Societies worldwide are increasingly
confronted by a new wave of security
challenges posed by climate change, such
as droughts, wildfires and hurricanes.
Human and state security risks posed by
climate change are often transnational and
therefore require viable and effective
intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) to
manage. IGOs such as the African Union,
Asian Development Bank, European Union
(EU), International Organization for
Migration, and United Nations (UN) High
Commissioner for Refugees (HNHCR) have
over the past two decades increasingly
engaged with climate security risks.
The growing importance of IGOs in this area
raises a number of questions. Which IGOs
address climate security risks? How, why,
and to what extent do traditional security
organizations such as the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) or the UN
Security Council deal with climate change?
How have these IGOs interpreted their
mandates differently to address climate
security risks more effectively? To what
extent has the UNHCR expanded its work to
help climate migrants and refugees? When,
how, and why do IGOs interact with non-
governmental organizations, private
transnational regulatory organizations, and
public-private partnerships to address
climate security risks? To what degree must
IGOs with mandates in different policy areas
(e.g. development, environment, health,
migration, and security) collaborate with
other organizations in order to effectively
address climate change?
Previous research on global climate security
governance has only insufficiently addressed
these questions. Existing studies have
R e s e a r c h h i g h l i g h t SOURCE: Dellmuth, L.M. et al. (2018).
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revealed that climate change is increasingly
talked about both in connection to state security
and human security, sometimes called the
“securitisation” of climate change. IGOs have
increasingly responded to these challenges
through the creation of working groups and the
assessment of climate risks.
In terms of state security, the absence of an
international agreement has prevented the UN
Security Council from addressing climate
security challenges, and some analysts have
therefore suggested that EU may be better
suited to address these challenges due to its
comprehensive approach to security.
In terms of human security, several UN agencies
have made efforts to counteract the adverse
effects of climate change by to larger extent
emphasizing the importance of people-centred
and right-based approaches. However, although
global climate security is increasingly attracting
scholarly attention across the environmental
social sciences, we still know little about when
and why IGOs address climate security
challenges, and how they can do so effectively.
The Mistra Geopolitics programme has an
important role to play in addressing this research
need. Under Work Package 3, and in
collaboration with other programme activities, we
will address the questions of when and why
IGOs address climate security challenges, and
how they can do so effectively. This work will
identify all IGOs engaging in climate security
governance since the 1990s, quantitatively map
these
organizations and their governance
responses, explain variation in governance
responses across roughly 50 IGOs in
different policy areas, and identify pathways
to effective climate security governance
through field studies.
Findings on the effectiveness of different
types of governance responses will
contribute to evidence-based policy advice
that will be tested in stakeholder dialogues
conducted by Work Package 5. The results
will also include high-quality data on
governance responses that can be combined
with data from Work Package 2 on global
resource flows in order to understand how
and when these flows are matched with
governance responses.
Taken together, this work is at the forefront
of environmental social science research
and will advance theory on the conditions
under which IGOs can effectively address
climate-induced challenges for human and
state security.
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MISTRA GEOPOLITICS AT COP23: BORDERLESS CLIMATE RISKSBy: Kevin M. Adams, Stockholm Environment Institute
Borderless climate risks have the potential to
severely hamper or completely roll-back
progress made on building resilience through
climate change adaptation. Can they be
addressed in the follow-up of the Paris
Agreement’s global goal on adaptation?
This concern was the convening force
behind the UNFCCC Side Event at COP23
titled: A Global Adaptation Goal and
borderless climate risks: Strengths and limits
of the Paris Agreement. The following are
key insights from the event, co-organised by
Mistra Geopolitics to collaborate with
researchers, practitioners, and policy-makers
both inside and outside the programme.
1. TRANSBOUNDARY AND
TELECONNECTED RISKS
Traditionally, climate risk is closely linked to
the direct impacts of climate change, like
increased flooding, drought, heat waves, or
extreme weather events. Yet, according to
Magnus Benzie, SEI Research Fellow and
Mistra Geopolitics Researcher in Work
Package 2, this view makes several critical
omissions. “By focusing primarily on climate
impacts within national borders, both policy-
makers and researchers have tended to
overlook the ways that climate change in one
part of the world can affect people in
another,” Benzie said.
Climate impacts can flow across borders via
several different ‘pathways.’ These include
shared biophysical flows like shared rivers or
ecosystems, trade flows, financial flows like
investment, and flows of people as patterns
of mobility, migration, and tourism change.
Importantly, these borderless climate risks
do not always occur among neighbours;
transboundary risks may inspire regional
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R e s e a r c h h i g h l i g h t
cooperation when the impacts are localized,
but risk can also be teleconnected, linking
countries and people who are relatively far
away from one another. By considering the
borderless dimensions of climate impacts,
we are presented with a quite different view
of vulnerability to climate change, raising
important questions for the way we adapt,
both nationally and as a global community.
2. ADAPTATION AS A GLOBAL PUBLIC
GOOD
Throughout the conversation, a potent and
recurring example was rice trade between
exporting countries like Thailand, Vietnam
and India, and heavily import-dependent
countries like Senegal. Extreme weather
events that impact rice exporters like
Thailand cause price hikes, which makes
food security in Senegal vulnerable to
climate impacts beyond its own borders.
Taking trade relationships like these as a
focus, Oliver Schenker, from the Frankfurt
School of Finance and Management, argued
that climate adaptation should be considered
a global public good with important benefits
for both importers and exporters.
Using economic modelling, Schenker’s work
suggests that when developing countries
receive adaptation finance and are able to
optimize their adaptation, the benefits are
felt all across the globe. There is a collective
interest in financing adaptation, a statement
strongly seconded by panellists Mizan Khan,
a climate finance negotiator from
Bangladesh, and Maria Banda, who is on the
faculty of law at the University of Toronto.
3. BORDERLESS CLIMATE RISKS UNDER
THE PARIS AGREEMENT
Recognizing the potentially significant role of
borderless climate risks, as well as the
collective interest in addressing them, what
provisions or instruments exist under the
Paris Agreement to help take these into
account? According to Annett Möhner, Team
Lead for the Adaptation Committee at the
UNFCCC Secretariat, National Adaptation
Plans may be one potential avenue for
beginning to identify and assess borderless
climate risks. Some countries have already
begun to do this, though teleconnected risks
are rarely considered. Additionally, as
methodologies are developed for assessing
progress toward the Global Goal on
Adaptation and performing the Global
Stocktake in 2023, there is an opening to
raise awareness about these risks, and think
about how they may be meaningfully
incorporated into stocktaking efforts.
Likewise, as Åsa Persson, Senior Research
Fellow at SEI and Mistra Geopolitics Work
Package 2 Leader noted, addressing
borderless climate risks intersects with
discussions about climate finance, and there
is a need to think carefully about how to
manage these risks while not re-allocating
resources away from countries vulnerable to
direct climate impacts. Dustin Schinn,
Climate Change Specialist at the Global
Environmental Facility (GEF), agreed, and
suggested that countries needed to be in the
“driver’s seat” for addressing borderless
climate risks, and should be supported by
finance and global coordination.
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4. NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN
Given the country-driven nature of the Paris
Agreement, it is also important to consider
that the UNFCCC may not be the only venue
for capturing and addressing borderless
climate risks. Despite Senegal’s interest in
bolstering Thai rice production, adaptation
must be country-driven and Thailand may
rightly choose to focus on other adaptation
priorities of national importance.
Rebecca Nadin, head of the Risk and
Resilience Programme at the Overseas
Development Institute (ODI), suggested that
there is the potential to learn from other UN
conventions like the UN Convention to
Combat Desertification or the UN
Convention on Biological Diversity, or to
mainstream climate considerations into the
multitude of existing water resources
treaties. Similarly, Sara Venturini, Policy
Analyst at Acclimatise, argued that trade
agencies, financial institutions, and private
sector actors may have a substantial role to
play in this regard, especially given their
high capacities for complex risk assessment.
5. RESEARCH FOR THE FUTURE OF
BORDERLESS CLIMATE ADAPTATION
Moving forward, there is a strong call for
more knowledge and research in this area
from policymakers and academics alike. It is
especially necessary to develop
methodologies, indicators, and indices to
raise awareness about the potentially
significant impacts of borderless climate
risks, especially those that are
teleconnected. Strong calls were made to
produce specific case-studies, as well as to
develop meta-analyses that locate
commonalities, help to identify best-
practices, and foster collaboration.
This sentiment is perhaps best captured by
John Firth, CEO at Acclimatise, who during
the panel discussion remarked: “climate
change has caused us to embark on a
complex experiment that we do not entirely
understand. New teleconnections may arise
as we continue to grapple with how we
should adapt to our changing world – work in
this area will need to be iterative and
ongoing.”
RIGHT:Borderless climate risks are distributed heterogeneously around the globe
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HOW DO WE WORK? Mistra Geopolitics is an interdisciplinary research programme which brings
together researchers from different fields of expertise to combine their intellectual
skills. This is an effective, and sometimes challenging approach, but necessary
when it comes to understanding the complex world we live in. The programme
comprises five interrelated work packages (WPs).
m i s t r a g e o p o l i t i c s
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W o r k P a c k a g e 1
GOVERNANCE AND SECURITY IN THE ANTHROPOCENE H O W D O E S O U R U N D E R S T A N D I N G O F S E C U R I T Y S H I F T I N T H E A N T H R O P O C E N E ?
W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R
The first work package sets the frame for an inquiry into the relationships between geopolitics
and sustainable development. It investigates how political drivers, risks and security threats of
global environmental change are construed today, and what the implications are for our
understanding of security and geopolitics. This work package also involves future prospects,
which will be explored through stakeholder dialogues.
Malin Mobjörk is a Senior Researcher and Director of SIPRI’s
Climate Change and Risk Programme. Malin’s work focuses on
the intersection of climate change, security and development and
how policy organizations are responding to climate-related
security risks.
MALIN MOBJÖRK
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R e s e a r c h e r s
O N G O I N G R E S E A R C H
K e y P u b l i c a t i o n
CAMILLA BORN EVA LÖVBRAND
DAN SMITH JIAYI ZHOU
S E N I O R P O L I C Y A D V I S O R I N E 3 G ' S C L I M A T E D I P L O M A C Y T E A M
D I R E C T O R O F S I P R I R E S E A R C H E R A T S I P R I A N D P H D S T U D E N T I N T H E M A T I C S T U D I E S A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
A S S O C I A T E P R O F E S S O R O F E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
Zhou, J. (2017). National Climate-Related Security Policies
of the Permanent Member States of the United Nations
Security Council. SIPRI Working Paper.
ANTHROPOCENE MEETS POLICY:
TRAVELLING NOTIONS OF
ENVIRONMENTAL RISK AND SECURITY
How is the Anthropocene staged as a
geopolitical drama in the study and practice
of international politics? Researchers Malin
Mobjörk and Eva Lövbrand have set out to
address this question as part of work
package one and presented preliminary
findings from a forthcoming paper at this
year's annual conference. Their work draws
inspiration from the field of
critical geopolitics, which suggests that
geopolitics itself is a discursive practice in
which the analytical frames employed by
intellectuals and practitioners are of central
importance. This particular study utilizes an
extensive review of the scholarly and policy
literatures, in the hopes of comparing the
ways that the Anthropocene is invoked in
each body of work. Ultimately, this paper
hopes to better understand how the
Anthropocene contributes to the production
and practice of international politics.
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W o r k P a c k a g e 2
IMPACT PATHWAYS IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXTW H A T A R E T H E M A I N I N D I R E C T C L I M A T E E F F E C T S F O R S W E D E N ?
W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R
Work Package 2 analyses the magnitude and kind of transnational impacts a small export dependent
country like Sweden is likely to face, as well as how this translates into risks and opportunities. The
research focuses on broadening our approach to climate impacts, in particular by focusing on three
pathways: trade of goods and services, people (specifically migration), and armed conflicts.
Åsa Persson is a senior research fellow at SEI. Her research
interests include environmental policy-making processes in
Sweden and Europe, global environmental governance in relation
to climate change adaptation, and the notion of planetary
boundaries. In 2018, Åsa will serve as Programme Co-Director.
Magnus Benzie will replace her as Work Package leader.
ÅSA PERSSON
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R e s e a r c h e r s
O N G O I N G R E S E A R C H
K e y P u b l i c a t i o n
MAGNUS BENZIE
DENNIS TÄNZLER NINA VON UEXKÜLL
2 0 1 8 W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R ; R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I
A S S I S T A N T P R O F E S S O R I N P E A C E A N D C O N F L I C T R E S E A R C H A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y
D I R E C T O R O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L C L I M A T E P O L I C Y A T A D E L P H I
Hall, N., and Persson, Å. (2017). Global Climate
Adaptation Governance: Why is it not Legally
Binding? European Journal of International Relations.
CHANGING LANDSCAPES:
CONCEPTUALISING THE GEOPOLITICS
OF DECARBONISATION
Decarbonisation is not a linear process, but
rather can be disruptive and contested.
Understanding this fraught transition is one
aim of adelphi's Dennis Tänzler's research,
who argues that achieving a just transition
will involve complex negotiations and trade-
offs between multiple objectives. With this
backdrop, Tänzler's team is working to
identify "smooth," "challenging," and "fragile"
transformers in order to support
decarbonisation across a diversity of geopolitical
contexts, accounting for exposure to climate
risks, the potential for energy diversification, and
the level of policy ambition.
Building on this work, the research team hopes
next to select case study countries in which to
explore potential future trends under ambitious
climate action scenarios and business-as-usual
approaches. This will help to identify proactive
foreign policy approaches that can the European
Union maximise synergies and contain risks as
we approach 2030.
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JOAKIM PALME
P R O F E S S O R I N G O V E R N M E N T A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y
W o r k P a c k a g e 3
GOVERNANCE RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTAL RELATED SECURITY RISKSH O W D O W E G O F R O M C L I M A T E C H A N G E T O P O L I T I C A L C H A N G E ?
W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R
This work package examines how, why, and with what consequences global governance systems
are able to respond to processes of geopolitics and environmental degradation, and the
conditions under which these responses are legitimate and effective. Until now, relatively little has
been understood about how political institutions relate to policy changes that concern sustainable
development, security, and welfare.
LISA DELLMUTH
Lisa Dellmuth is an Associate Professor of International Relations at
the Department of Economic History and International Relations, at
Stockholm University. Her research focuses on fiscal policy, economic
inequality, and public opinion; legitimacy in global governance; and
global climate security governance.
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R e s e a r c h e r s
O N G O I N G R E S E A R C H
K e y P u b l i c a t i o n
KARIN BÄCKSTRAND ANDREAS DUIT
MARIA-THERESE GUSTAFSSON
ECE KURAL SANNA LUNDQUIST P H D S T U D E N T I N I N T E R N A T I O N A L R E L A T I O N S A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y
P R O F E S S O R I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y
P O S T D O C T O R A L R E S E A R C H E R I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y
P H D S T U D E N T I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y
P R O F E S S O R I N P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E A T S T O C K H O L M U N I V E R S I T Y
Dellmuth, L.M., et al. (2017). Intergovernmental
Organizations and Climate Security Challenges: Implications
for Academic Research and Policymaking. SIPRI Fact Sheet.
THE LIMITS OF CIVIL SOCIETY:
ECOLOGICAL FACTORS, POLITICS, AND
PARTICIPATION IN REGIONAL FISHERIES
MANAGEMENT ORGANISATIONS
While a large literature in environmental
social science suggests that higher levels of
environmental degradation lead to greater
participation among civil society actors (CSOs)
in international fisheries management, new
work by Lisa Dellmuth and colleagues suggests
that this may not be the case. Using a statistical
analysis that spans nine international fisheries
management organizations, this work explores
alternative explanations for CSO participation.
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ANTON AHLÉN P H D S T U D E N T I N G O V E R N M E N T A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y
W o r k P a c k a g e 4
THE INTER-RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN SHIFTING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPES AND THE SDGSW H A T A R E T H E C O N S E Q U E N C E S O F A C H I E V I N G T H E 2 0 3 0 A G E N D A ?
W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R
Work Package 4 focuses on how resource dynamics and geopolitical interests affect strategies for
sustainable development and how these strategies may in turn impact the geopolitical arena. By analysing
relationships between the various goals in the 2030 Agenda, we will deepen our understanding of the
synergies and conflicts embedded within our pursuit of sustainable development across the globe.
Bengt Johansson is a senior lecturer in Environmental and Energy
Systems studies at Lund University. His research deals with the
transformation of the energy system, with a specific focus on how
energy and climate policies affect this transformation.
BENGT JOHANSSON
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R e s e a r c h e r s
O N G O I N G R E S E A R C H
K e y P u b l i c a t i o n
HENRIK CARLSEN
ANDRÉ MÅNBERGER
HÅVARD HEGRE
NINA WEITZ
S E N I O R R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I
P R O F E S S O R I N P E A C E A N D C O N F L I C T R E S E A R C H A T U P P S A L A U N I V E R S I T Y
R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I
A S S O C I A T E S E N I O R L E C T U R E R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L A N D E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S A T L U N D U N I V E R S I T Y
Weitz, N., Carlsen, H., Nilsson, M. and Skånberg, K. (2017).
Towards Systemic and Contextual Priority Setting for
Implementing the 2030 Agenda. Sustainability Science, 1–18.
GLOBAL METAL FLOWS IN THE
RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION
The transition to sustainable societies will
require significant amounts of metals and
other key materials to produce new critical
technologies. In this study, André Månberger
and colleagues find that while the reserves
of 11 key metals are sufficient to support the
needed development of solar and wind
power, as well as electric motors, other sub-
technologies may be stifled and alternatives
required. Metal accessibility is likely to
constrain the growth rate of certain
technologies and can be difficult to increase.
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BJÖRN-OLA LINNÉR
P R O F E S S O R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
MARIA JERNNÄS
P H D S T U D E N T I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
W o r k P a c k a g e 5
FORESIGHT: SWEDEN IN A CHANGING GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPEW H A T A R E T H E O P P O R T U N I T I E S A N D R I S K S F O R S W E D I S H A C T O R S ?
W O R K P A C K A G E L E A D E R
The fifth work package will bring together research from the other work packages in an iterative co-
creation process involving project stakeholders and seek answers to the key questions of the
programme. It will provide opportunities to discuss innovation and business development as ways
to strengthen Sweden’s competitiveness. The co-creation process will include developing
“explorative” scenarios of possible alternative futures, which will serve as the basis for analysing
options and identifying strategies.
Victoria Wibeck is a Professor in Thematic Studies at Linköping
University. The aim of her research is to analyze the challenges
and opportunities associated with new and emerging
technologies, as information moves from the scientific arena and
is recontextualised in political decisions, media, and the everyday
lives of citizens.
VICTORIA WIBECK
20
R e s e a r c h e r s
O N G O I N G R E S E A R C H
K e y P u b l i c a t i o n
KEVIN ADAMS KARL HALLDING
TIM SULJADA
TINA NESET
KARIN ELIASSON P O L I C Y A N A L Y S T A N D P R O J E C T M A N A G E R A T S E I
R E S E A R C H A S S O C I A T E A T S E I
S E N I O R R E S E A R C H E R I N T H E M A T I C S T U D I E S A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
P H D S T U D E N T I N T H E M A T I C S T U D I E S A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
S E N I O R R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I
Carlsen, H., Klein, R. J. T. and Wikman-Svahn, P.
(2017). Transparent Scenario Development. Nature Climate
Change, 7(9).
PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE FIRST
ROUND OF MISTRA GEOPOLITICS
FOCUS GROUPS
Given the centrality of the co-creation
process to Mistra Geopolitics, one key aim of
the research programme is to understand
the opportunities and challenges percieved
by Swedish actors as they navigate the current
geopolitical context to pursue sustainable
development. The rich results from stakeholder
focus groups will help to inform the
development of the explorative scenarios, as
well as influence the direction of other research
activities ongoing across the programme.
21
ERIC KEMP-BENEDICT S E N I O R S C I E N T I S T A T S E I
The greatest asset of Mistra Geopolitics is the internationally-renowned team of experts
that make the programme work. The Mistra Geopolitics management team, supported by
the Board, are responsible for facilitating the programme’s widespread success, built on
the hard work, critical analysis, and innovation of work package leaders, researchers,
and programme partners.
Mistra Geopolitics combines theory testing and development with a co-creation
approach, where a variety of stakeholders from public, private and civil society sectors
are actively involved to improve the research design and ensure that theoretical
perspectives as well as empirical research are relevant for the people who translate
them into policy and action.
WHO ARE WE?
m i s t r a g e o p o l i t i c s
R e s e a r c h s c h o o l
Mistra Geopolitics includes a Research School in order to train the next generation of scholars in methods,
theories, and data collection for advanced analysis of geopolitics and sustainable development. It includes
doctoral students enrolled in the Mistra Geopolitics programme, as well as external graduate students,
including 3 PhD students from partner countries in the Global South. The Research School constitutes a
meeting point where doctoral students, researchers and the scientific advisory board interact.
22
B O A R D
CHAIR OF THE BOARD
LENA EK
C H A I R O F S Ö D R A , S W E D E N ’ S L A R G E S T F O R E S T - O W N E R A S S O C I A T I O N . S H E A L S O S E R V E D A S M I N I S T E R F O R T H E E N V I R O N M E N T F R O M 2 0 1 1 T O 2 0 1 4 .
HALA MOHAMMED
V I C E C H A I R O F T H E S W E D I S H R E D C R O S S
BOARD MEMBERS
CAROLINE ANKARCONA
P R O J E C T M A N A G E R A T T H E R O Y A L S W E D I S H A C A D E M Y O F E N G I N E E R I N G S C I E N C E S
ANNIKA MARKOVIC
P E R M A N E N T R E P R E S E N T A T I V E O F S W E D E N T O T H E O E C D A N D U N E S C O .
ROBERT EGNELL
H E A D O F D E P A R T M E N T F O R S E C U R I T Y , S T R A T E G Y A N D L E A D E R S H I P A T T H E S W E D I S H D E F E N S E U N I V E R S I T Y .
23
PROGRAMME DIRECTOR
m a n a g e m e n t t e a m
BJÖRN-OLA LINNÉR
P R O F E S S O R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
CO-DIRECTORS
KARL HALLDING
S E N I O R R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I
ÅSA PERSSON
2 0 1 8 C O - D I R E C T O R ; S E N I O R R E S E A R C H F E L L O W A T S E I
EVA LÖVBRAND
A S S O C I A T E P R O F E S S O R I N E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G E A T L I N K Ö P I N G U N I V E R S I T Y
24
COMMUNICATIONS
EVA KRUTMEIJER
C O M M U N I C A T I O N S L E A D ; S E N I O R C O M M U N I C A T I O N A D V I S O R A N D S C I E N C E C O M M U N I C A T O R , F O U N D E R O F E K K O A B , S T O C K H O L M
BRENDA OCHOLA
C O M M U N I C A T I O N O F F I C E R A T S E I
P R O G R A M M E M A N A G E R ; P O L I C Y A N A L Y S T A N D P R O J E C T M A N A G E R A T S E I
TIM SULJADA
PROGRAMME MANAGER
A S S I S T A N T P R O G R A M M E M A N A G E R ; R E S E A R C H A S S O C I A T E A T S E I
KEVIN ADAMS
m a n a g e m e n t t e a m
25
K E Y O U T P U T S P A R T N E R S
RESEARCH PARTNERS
STAKEHOLDER PARTNERS
26
R E V E N U E S
Management 37%
Communication 7%
WP1 4%
WP2 6%
WP3 14%
WP4 17%
WP5 15%
2 0 1 7 f i n a n c i a l s u m m a r y
M I S T R A
T O T A L R E V E N U E S
C O - F U N D I N G F R O M P R O G R A M M E P A R T N E R S
5 7 4 9 3 2 4 S E K
1 4 0 8 2 3 3 S E K 7 1 5 7 5 5 7 S E K
E X P E N D I T U R E S A L A R I E S
T R A V E L
4 8 8 8 5 8 4 S E K
2 7 0 8 9 S E K
1 1 3 7 2 1 S E K
4 6 0 5 0 9 S E K
2 3 8 7 5 8 S E K
C O N S U M A B L E S
O T H E R D I R E C T C O S T S
P U R C H A S E D S E R V I C E S
I N D I R E C T C O S T S 1 3 8 3 8 9 6 S E K 7 1 5 7 5 5 7 S E K T O T A L E X P E N D I T U R E
C A S H F L O W O P E N I N G B A L A N C E
D I S B U R S E M E N T S F R O M M I S T R A
0 S E K
- 7 1 5 7 5 5 7 S E K
1 0 2 9 2 9 2 5 S E K C O - F U N D I N G F R O M P R O G R A M M E P A R T N E R S 1 4 0 8 2 3 3 S E K P R O G R A M M E E X P E N D I T U R E
4 5 4 3 6 0 1 S E K C L O S I N G B A L A N C E
E X P E N D I T U R E B Y W P
27
K E Y O U T P U T S
E V E N T S E V E N T T I T L E D A T E R O L E W P
S T O C K H O L M F O R U M O N P E A C E A N D D E V E L O P M E N T 0 3 - 0 4 M A Y 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D W P 1
S T A C Y D . V A N D E V E E R L E C T U R E : C L I M A T E P O L I T I C S A F T E R P A R I S A N D U N D E R T R U M P
1 0 M A Y 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
C L I M A T E A D A P T A T I O N G O V E R N A N C E W O R K S H O P 2 2 - 2 4 M A Y 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
E U G L O B A L C O N F L I C T R I S K I N D E X W O R K S H O P 3 1 M A Y 1 7 P A R T I C I P A T E D W P 2
L O N G - T E R M S T R A T E G I C A N A L Y S I S K I C K - O F F M E E T I N G
0 7 J U N 1 7 P A R T I C I P A T E D
U N I T E D N A T I O N S S E C U R I T Y C O U N C I L R E F E R E N C E G R O U P
0 9 J U N 1 7 P A R T I C I P A T E D
2 7 J U N 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D H I G H - L E V E L S E M I N A R I N B E I J I N G
C A R B O N D R A W D O W N P O L I C Y W O R K S H O P 0 8 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
S W E D I S H R A D I O “ K L O T E T ” O N E U - C H I N A C L I M A T E R E L A T I O N S
1 8 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
S W E D I S H E N V I R O N M E N T A L P R O T E C T I O N A G E N C Y 2 1 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
P A R T I C I P A T O R Y S C E N A R I O S S E M I N A R F O R V Ä S T R A G Ö T A L A N D C O U N T Y A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
3 1 A U G 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 5
W O R L D S E C U R I T Y I S S U E S J O I N T R O U N D T A B L E 0 4 S E P 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D W P 1 ; W P 3
I N D I R E C T I N T E R N A T I O N A L I M P A C T S O F C L I M A T E C H A N G E O N S W I T Z E R L A N D
2 6 S E P 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 2
S I M O N D A L B Y D I S T I N G U I S H E D L E C T U R E 1 2 O C T 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
T E C H N O L O G I C A L D E V E L O P M E N T , G E O P O L I T I C A L A N D E N V I R O N M E N T A L I S S U E S I N O U R E N E R G Y F U T U R E
2 4 O C T 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 1
T H E F U T U R E O F T H E P A R I S C L I M A T E A G R E E M E N T 0 3 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
W P 2
S E C U R I T Y I M P L I C A T I O N S O F C L I M A T E C H A N G E – H I G H L E V E L D I P L O M A T I C F O R U M
0 8 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D W P 2
W P 2 A G L O B A L A D A P T A T I O N G O A L A N D B O R D E R L E S S C L I M A T E R I S K S : C O P 2 3 S I D E E V E N T
1 5 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
O U T C O M E S F R O M C O P 2 3 I N T E R V I E W 1 6 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
O U T C O M E S F R O M C O P 2 3 I N T E R V I E W 1 7 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
O U T C O M E S F R O M C O P 2 3 I N T E R V I E W 1 8 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
S W E D I S H T E L E V I S I O N ’ S S C I E N C E S T U D I O 2 0 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
W P 2
2 8 N O V 1 7 P R E S E N T E D L E G I T I M A C Y A N D A C C O U N T A B I L I T Y O F P O L Y C E N T R I C C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E
I N D I G E N O U S E N V I R O N M E N T A L G O V E R N A N C E C O N F E R E N C E
2 9 - 3 0 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
M I G R A T I O N S E M I N A R W I T H R A I N E R M Ü N Z 2 9 N O V 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
D A V I D V S . G O L I A T H 2 . 0 S E M I N A R W I T H O E C D 0 6 D E C 1 7 C O - O R G A N I S E D
P L A N E T A R Y S E C U R I T Y C O N F E R E N C E 2 0 1 7 1 2 - 1 3 D E C 1 7 P R E S E N T E D
W P 3
W P 3
28
K E Y O U T P U T S p u b l i c a t i o n s
F U L L C I T A T I O N
A D A M S , K . M . ( 2 0 1 7 , D E C E M B E R 1 2 ) . T H E H O L Y G R A I L O F C L I M A T E P O L I C Y ? [ B L O G P O S T ] . R E T R I E V E D F R O M : H T T P : / / W W W . M I S T R A - G E O P O L I T I C S . S E / C O M M E N T S - I N S I G H T S / T H E - H O L Y - G R A I L - O F - C L I M A T E - P O L I C Y /
A D A M S , K . M . ( 2 0 1 7 , D E C E M B E R 1 8 ) . R E S I L I E N C E B U I L D I N G A T R I S K ? F I V E K E Y I N S I G H T S F O R A D D R E S S I N G B O R D E R L E S S C L I M A T E R I S K S [ B L O G P O S T ] . R E T R I E V E D F R O M : H T T P : / / W W W . M I S T R A - G E O P O L I T I C S . S E / C O M M E N T S - I N S I G H T S / R E S I L I E N C E - B U I L D I N G - A T - R I S K - F I V E - K E Y - I N S I G H T S - F O R - A D D R E S S I N G - B O R D E R L E S S - C L I M A T E - R I S K S /B Ä C K S T R A N D , K . A N D K U Y P E R , J . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . T H E D E M O C R A T I C L E G I T I M A C Y O F O R C H E S T R A T I O N : T H E U N F C C C , N O N - S T A T E A C T O R S A N D T R A N S N A T I O N A L C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E . E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I T I C S 2 6 ( 4 ) : 7 6 4 - 7 6 8 .
B Ä C K S T R A N D , K . , K U Y P E R , J . , L I N N É R , B . O . , A N D L Ö V B R A N D , E . ( E D S ) . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . N O N - S T A T E A C T O R S I N G L O B A L C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E : F R O M C O P E N H A G E N T O P A R I S A N D B E Y O N D . S P E C I A L I S S U E , E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I T I C S 2 6 ( 4 ) : 5 6 1 - 5 7 9 .
C A R L S E N , H . , K L E I N , R . J . T . A N D W I K M A N - S V A H N , P . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . T R A N S P A R E N T S C E N A R I O D E V E L O P M E N T . N A T U R E C L I M A T E C H A N G E , 7 ( 9 ) .
D E L L M U T H , L . M . , G U S T A F S S O N , M . T . , B R E M B E R G , N . , A N D M O B J Ö R K , M . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . I N T E R G O V E R N M E N T A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N S A N D C L I M A T E S E C U R I T Y C H A L L E N G E S : I M P L I C A T I O N S F O R A C A D E M I C R E S E A R C H A N D P O L I C Y M A K I N G . S I P R I F A C T S H E E T .
D E L L M U T H , L . M . , G U S T A F S S O N , M . T . , B R E M B E R G , N . , A N D M O B J Ö R K , M . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . I N T E R G O V E R N M E N T A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N S A N D C L I M A T E S E C U R I T Y : A D V A N C I N G T H E R E S E A R C H A G E N D A . W I L E Y I N T E R D I S C I P L I N A R Y R E V I E W S : C L I M A T E C H A N G E , E 4 9 6 .
H A L L , N . , A N D P E R S S O N , Å . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . G L O B A L C L I M A T E A D A P T A T I O N G O V E R N A N C E : W H Y I S I T N O T L E G A L L Y B I N D I N G ? E U R O P E A N J O U R N A L O F I N T E R N A T I O N A L R E L A T I O N S , 1 3 5 4 0 6 6 1 1 7 7 2 5 1 5 7 .
J E R N N Ä S , M . , A N D L I N N É R , B . O . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . H O M O G E N E I T Y O R D I F F R A C T I O N ? A D I S C U R S I V E C A R T O G R A P H Y O F T H E P O S T - P A R I S P O L I C Y L A N D S C A P E . E A R T H S Y S T E M S G O V E R N A N C E C O N F E R E N C E 2 0 1 7 .
L Ö V B R A N D , E . , H J E R P E M . , A N D L I N N É R , B . O . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . M A K I N G G L O B A L C L I M A T E G O V E R N A N C E G L O B A L . H O W U N G L O B A L C L I M A T E S U M M I T R Y C O M E S T O M A T T E R I N A C O M P L E X C L I M A T E R E G I M E , E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I T I C S 2 6 ( 4 ) : 5 8 0 - 5 9 9 .
N I L S S O N , M . , A N D P E R S S O N , Å . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . P O L I C Y N O T E : L E S S O N S F R O M E N V I R O N M E N T A L P O L I C Y I N T E G R A T I O N F O R T H E I M P L E M E N T A T I O N O F T H E 2 0 3 0 A G E N D A . E N V I R O N M E N T A L S C I E N C E & P O L I C Y , 7 8 , 3 6 - 3 9 .
S T O C K H O L M E N V I R O N M E N T I N S T I T U T E . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . M I S T R A G E O P O L I T I C S : S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y , S T A B I L I T Y , A N D C O M P E T I T I V E N E S S F O R S W E D E N I N T H E A N T H R O P O C E N E . S E I F A C T S H E E T .
W E I T Z , N . , C A R L S E N , H . , N I L S S O N , M . A N D S K Å N B E R G , K . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . T O W A R D S S Y S T E M I C A N D C O N T E X T U A L P R I O R I T Y S E T T I N G F O R I M P L E M E N T I N G T H E 2 0 3 0 A G E N D A . S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y S C I E N C E , 1 – 1 8 .
Z H O U , J . ( 2 0 1 7 ) . N A T I O N A L C L I M A T E - R E L A T E D S E C U R I T Y P O L I C I E S O F T H E P E R M A N E N T M E M B E R S T A T E S O F T H E U N I T E D N A T I O N S S E C U R I T Y C O U N C I L . S I P R I W O R K I N G P A P E R .
29
M I S T R A G E O P O L I T I C S L I N N É G A T A N 8 7 D S E - 1 1 5 2 3 S T O C K H O L M + 4 6 8 3 0 8 0 4 4 I N F O @ M I S T R A G E O P O L I T I C S . O R G
F U N D E D B Y : H O S T E D B Y :