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25925 Telegraph Road, Suite 350 Southfield, Michigan 48098-5724 Phone: 248.952.6401 Fax: 248.952.6404

www.oesa.org

Young Leadership Council 5 Kick-off Meeting Minutes October 20, 2016

OESA Conference Center, Southfield, Mich.

Members Present:

Daniel Vella II, Controller, Bridgewater Interiors, LLC Matthew Letzmann, Shareholder, Brooks Wilkins Sharkey & Turco PLLC Marina Cacciutti, Finance Manager, Brose North America, Inc. Cassandra Traynor, Human Resource Manager, Brose North America, Inc. Chad Easton, Senior Manager, Sales, DENSO International America Stephen Pawlowski, Director, Sales, Eaton Rebecca Wangelin, Sales Manager, Eaton Ahmed Abdelmomen UAP Manager IMM, Faurecia North America Joe Damman, Sales Manager, Faurecia North America Mike Dudek, Commodity Purchasing Manager – CVE, Faurecia North America Cory Ruzzin, Program Manufacturing Leader, Faurecia North America Dawn Zuidema, Business Unit Manager, GHSP Raquel Mendoza Cano, Senior Advanced Manufacturing Engineer, Henniges Automotive Sumeet Gurnani, General Manager, Engineering & Design, Hinduja Tech, Inc David Daughtry, Engineering Manager, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Mike Kassian, Sales Manager, Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Kirk Ross, Sales, Lacks Enterprises, Inc. Andrea Toyryla, Human Resource Manager, MAHLE Behr USA Inc. Dan Huff, Engineer Manager, Mann+Hummel USA, Inc. Adam Trella, Business Development Manager, Mubea NA Inc. Steven Wegner, Customer Group Manager, Nemak Aaron Henry, Launch Manager, North American Stamping Group, LLC Joseph Gatliff, Consultant, Plante Moran PLLC Kevin Clay, Director, Customer Program Operations, Pridgeon & Clay Inc. John Knoebel, Sales Manager, Renaissance Manufacturing Group, LLC Anson Abraham, Lead Project Manager and Customer Chief Engineer, Robert Bosch LLC Steve Tashman Project Manager, Robert Bosch LLC Dustin McDonald, Plant Manager, Shiloh Industries, Inc. Robert Levine, Manager, Stout Risius Ross, Inc. Eric Austria, Program Manager, Purchasing, Toyoda Gosei North America Corporation Ninon Casillas, Legal Counsel, Valeo North America, Inc Sreeniwas Ranganathan, Chief Engineer, Visteon Corporation Randall Peck, Senior Counsel, Warner Norcross & Judd LLP Brandon King, Vice President, Senior Broking Specialist, Willis Towers Watson John Romain, Manager, Yazaki North America, Inc.

MINUTES

Young Leadership Council 5 Minutes – October 20, 2016 of 4

Guests: Christy Roadknight, Sales Excellence Manager, Eaton Luke Hugel, Chief of Staff, Office of the President, Robert Bosch LLC Thomas Kowal, Regional Commercial Director, TI Automotive Charles Chesbrough, Executive Director, Strategy, Research and Senior Economist, OESA Frank Venegas, Chairman & CEO, Ideal Group, Inc. Legal Counsel: David DeVine, Shareholder, Butzel Long Staff:

Ginger Juncker, Executive Director, Programs and Member Services, OESA

David Johnson, Manager, Communications, OESA Julie Fream, President and CEO, OESA

Keiyania Mann, Manager, Councils and Member Services, OESA

I. Welcome and Introduction Ginger Juncker, Executive Director, Programs & Member Services, OESA opened the meeting at 10:00 am welcoming members to the kickoff for YLC5. She reviewed the OESA antitrust guidelines and introduced David DeVine, Butzel Long, as antitrust counsel for the YLC5. Ginger also shared an overview of OESA and the Councils.

II. Alumni Insight Thomas Kowal, Regional Commercial Director, TI Automotive (YLC1), Luke Hugel, Chief of Staff, Office of the President, Robert Bosch LLC and Christy Roadknight, Sales Excellence Manager, Eaton, (YLC3) Thomas, Luke and Christy each provided an introduction sharing why they said yes to the invitation of presenting to the YLC5 council members. The alums followed by asking the group to consider two questions: Why do you think you are here? (Answers included: only person like me, broader view of industry, learn from others, have gaps in leadership / bench strength) What do you think your company wants from you? (Answers included: industry knowledge, raise the talent level; bigger picture view; become a thought leader.)

III. Member Roundtable For this first roundtable, the time was dedicated to learning about one another. Each member introduced themselves, sharing their name, company, and personal and professional highlights.

IV. An Industry Outlook and the Metrics Behind It Charles Chesbrough, Executive Director, Strategy, Research and Senior Economist, OESA began by sharing his overall view and approach to outlooks: Hope for the best and plan for the worst. He then provided an overview of not only what the industry will look like, but also how members can glean insight from various pieces of data. Parts of the economy are doing well, but other parts are not. The biggest issues continue to be debt: both for students and the government. Charles addressed questions dealing with the economic impact of the upcoming election; what is likely to happen over the next 6 months to the US Dollar; as well as views on NAFTA. His presentation is attached.


V. Leadership from My Perspective Frank Venegas, Chairman & CEO, Ideal Group, Inc. shared his views on life as well as leadership. He stressed that we all have to ‘learn things, find things and make your mark.’ His drive and focus comes from being an innovator – always looking at things differently and trying to determine how he could improve the things that “bugged” him. Frank stated the most important thing is to always create – do something that makes you different. Before taking questions, Frank reminded the group that people have helped you get here – so help someone else. Leadership from My Perspective is a recurring segment in our YLC meetings, this open forum gives members the opportunity to engage in a candid discussion about leadership with an industry leader.

VI. Getting Down to Business

Ginger Juncker, Executive Director, Programs & Member Services, OESA began with the goals for the Young Leadership Council. She then shared dates for 2017 and explained the opportunities members have to attend other OESA events. Ginger then kicked off a group exercise on member goals for YLC5 including topics, speakers and the program itself. Below are member responses:

What do you want out of your YLC Membership?

o Networking

o Leadership Insights

o Alternative Peer Perspectives

o Motivational presentations

o Benchmarking

o Work/life balance

o Become more strategic

o Organization wide change – becoming an influencer

o Be a more effective manager, leader

o Learning and Managing relationships with Suppliers and OEMs

o Change Management and effecting change

o Public vs. Private Companies. Differences, challenges and opportunities

o Sharing experiences and challenges, etc.

What activities/topics would you like to see?

o Work Life Balance

o Tools and Approaches for working with different generations (millennials,

boomers)

o Creating your own personal brand

o Charting your career path

o Navigating corporate politics

o Influencing corporate change

o Mentoring star performers

o Mexico, shift and trends

China too

o Labor Relations

o Talent retention, developing and keeping star performers

o Long term market innovations, 10-20+ years

o Leadership skills


o Regional differences, US vs International

o Current insight on new regulations (CAFÉ, etc.)

o Cross Functional Processes

o Strategies to motivate and coach teams

o Change management

VII. Wrap Up and Adjournment Julie Fream, President and CEO, OESA closed the meeting at 4:45 p.m. by sharing how she sees the Young Leadership Council. It is the beginning of your relationship with OESA, and it’s a great opportunity for you to take a deep breath and get above the day-to-day dealings of the automotive industry. She also thanked council members for their participation. Next Meeting date: February 2nd 2017 Meeting Schedule: May 4th; August 17th; November 15th. *meeting minutes are intended to be used as a supplement to the overall meeting content.

Join. Engage. Advance.


OESA YOUNG LEADERSHIP COUNCIL 5

KICK-OFF MEETING

October 20, 2016

OESA Conference CenterOESA Wifi Network: OESA Guest Password: oesaGuests!

Supporting Partner:


WELCOME

Ginger Juncker,

Executive Director, Councils and Member Programs, OESA

2


ANTI-TRUST GUIDELINES

• Approved agenda for each meeting. Stick to the agenda.

• Complete and accurate minutes.

• Business conducted at formal meetings--no side-bar conversations.

• No agreements, discussions or understandings concerning:

• Prices, discounts, terms or conditions of sale

• Profits, margins, cost data

• Market shares, sales territory, markets

• Selection, rejection, termination of customers or suppliers

• Restricting territories, markets, or customers

• Any matter inconsistent with the exercise of independent business judgment in pricing of services and products, dealing

with customers and suppliers, and choosing markets in which to compete

3


AGENDA

4

9:30 a.m. Registration and Networking

10:00 a.m.

Opening - Ginger Juncker, Executive Director, Councils and Member

Programs, OESA

• Welcome and Introduction

• OESA & Council Overview

10:30 a.m.

Alumni Insight

Thomas Kowal, Regional Commercial Director, TI Automotive (YLC1)

Luke Hugel, Chief of Staff, Office of the President, Robert Bosch LLC (YLC3)

Christy Roadknight, Sales Excellence Manager, Eaton (YLC3)

11:00 a.m.Member Roundtable Discussion

Ginger Juncker, Executive Director, Councils and Member Programs

12:30 p.m. Buffet Luncheon


AGENDA CONTINUED

5

1:15 p.m.

An Industry Outlook and the Metrics Behind It

Charles Chesbrough, Executive Director, Strategy, Research and Senior

Economist, OESA

1:50 p.m. Stretch Break

2:00 p.m.Leadership from My Perspective

Frank Venegas, Chairman, Ideal Shield LLC

3:00 p.m. Networking Break

3:15 p.m.Getting Down to Business

Ginger Juncker, Executive Director, Councils and Member Programs

4:45 p.m. Closing

5:00 p.m. Reception


OESA & COUNCIL OVERVIEW Q&A

Ginger Juncker,


6


ABOUT OESA

7

CHAMPIONING THE BUSINESS INTERESTS OF THE AUTOMOTIVE OE SUPPLIER COMMUNITY:Founded in 1998, the Original Equipment Suppliers Association (OESA), serves as the voice of the automotive supplier

and a valuable resource for member organizations. Throughout the supply chain and on legislative and regulatory

issues, OESA represents the collective voice of suppliers.

EXCLUSIVELY FOR AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS:

Supplier membership is exclusive to original equipment automotive suppliers that directly provide components,

tools, materials and services to the OE light vehicle industry.

STRENGTH IN NUMBERS:

Membership is comprised of approximately 350 Tier 1,2, and 3 automotive suppliers with North American OE

sales that range from $10 million to $5+ billion. Affiliate members support the supplier community with thought

leadership, industry analysis and other key information.

LED BY SUPPLIER INDUSTRY EXECUTIVES:

OESA’s interests are guided by a board of directors consisting of CEOs from member companies of all sizes.

STAFF THAT WORKS FOR MEMBERS:

Members enjoy direct access to a staff of dedicated association employees in Detroit and 6 in Washington, D.C.


ABOUT OESA

8

OESA's mission is to champion the business interests of automotive original equipment (OE) suppliers. Since 1998, the Association has been addressing issues of common concern and advocating on behalf of the supplier community throughout the supply chain and in Washington, D.C.

OESA is one of four divisions of the Motor & Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA). All divisions are represented by MEMA’s advocacy and emerging technology expertise.

MOTOR & EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION

The MEMA network is the most powerful, respected, and effective voice for the supplier industry.

It represents motor vehicle and mobility suppliers, parts manufacturers and remanufacturers.


OTHER MEMA DIVISIONS

9

HEAVY DUTY MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION

HDMA represents OE and aftermarket parts suppliers that participate in class 4-8 commercial vehicles

and/or 50+ hp off-highway vehicles. Members operate in every segment of the heavy duty market—from

components, service equipment and tires to chemicals, lighting and accessories.

AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SUPPLIERS ASSOCIATION

AASA represents automotive aftermarket suppliers that manufacture, distribute, retail and install vehicle

parts, chemicals, equipment and accessories.

MOTOR AND EQUIPMENT REMANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION

MERA represents remanufacturers, their suppliers, and professional services firms operating primarily in

the automotive and heavy-duty, off-road (HDOR) aftermarket.


MEMA INTERFACE, ADVOCATE, AND SUPPORT FOR

SUPPLIERS IN D.C.

Supplie

r M

em

ber

Com

panie

s

OESA, AASA, MERA, and HDMA are Member Focused Associations and are Divisions of MEMA

10


OESA Global Supplier Relationships

11

OESA cultivates and maintains relationships with automotive associations and government agencies on an ongoing basis with the

objective of addressing issues of common concern and fostering global supplier network opportunities.

Join. Engage. Advance. 12

OESA MEMBERSHIP


OESA is the only trade association dedicated to addressing the commercial issues that affect

automotive suppliers by fostering collaboration throughout the supply chain, organizing forums

for networking, information exchange, best practice & knowledge sharing.

• OEM Town Hall meetings with:

• 30+ Annual Industry topic focused events

• 16 Peer Group Councils (Each meeting 4 times per year)

• Regular Industry Forecasts and outlooks

• Exclusive Publications

• Dedicated team to address Regulatory and Legislative issues

WHY OESA?


OESA OEM & GLOBAL EVENTS

OESA global events and webinars bring relevant industry insight to the forefront, and offer members the opportunity

to have direct dialogue with OEM and other industry stakeholders. All OESA event agendas are member driven;

they highlight the industry’s new opportunities and address challenges.

14

GM Town Hall

NISSAN Town Hall

TOYOTA Town Hall

VW Town Hall

FCA Town Hall

HONDA Town Hall

FORD Town Hall

N.A. International Auto Show Tours

Doing Business in China Webinar

Annual Canada/U.S. Automotive Dinner

Operational & Financial Performance of OEMs and Suppliers:

AlixPartners Global Automotive Outlook™


OESA TOPICAL EVENTS & WEBINARS

15

RECALLS: The Suppliers New Role

Annual Canada/U.S. Automotive Dinner

OEM Terms and Conditions and Current Legal Issues

Commodities Conference

South Carolina Regional Meeting: Expanding Supplier Opportunities

West Michigan Regional Meeting

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY BEST PRACTICES: Protecting and

Strengthening Your Competitive Advantage

Quarterly Digest & Industry Outlook

MEXICO: Myths, Realities & Opportunities

Legal Trends Conference

CYBERLIABILITY: Understanding Risk & Strategic Direction for Boards &

Executive Officers

Consumer Electronics Show Preview

Harbour Results Inc. Vendor Tooling Study Update

California Regional Meeting

Annual OESA Conference

Member-driven and supplier-centric, OESA topical events and webinars address hot topics and important industry

issues.


OESA BOARD OF DIRECTORS

OSCAR ALBIN │ Executive President

INA, National Association of Automotive Parts Manufacturers in Mexico

PAUL BARNETT │ President

Principal Manufacturing

JAMES BRADBURY │ President

Grand Rapids Controls Company LLC

LAURENT BRESSON │ President and Global CEO

Nexteer

FRANÇOISE COLPRON │ CEO North America

Valeo

DAVID C. DAUCH │ Chairman and CEO

American Axle & Manufacturing

JACQUI DEDO │ Co-Founder

Aware Mobility LLC

PAUL DOYLE │ CEO

Coastal Automotive

JOHN DUNN │ President and CEO

The Americas Plastic Omnium Auto Inergy

DOUGLAS J. GRIMM │ President & COO

MPG Inc.

MICHAEL HAUGHEY │ President

North American Stamping Group

RAMZI HERMIZ │ President and CEO

Shiloh Industries, Inc.

DON MANVEL │Chairman and CEO

AVL Americas

LON OFFENBACHER │President and CEO

Inteva Products

MICHAEL ROBINET │Managing Director

IHS Automotive

WES SMITH │ President and CEO

E & E Manufacturing Co., Inc.

ARMANDO TAMEZ │ CEO

Nemak

JIM TEETS │ President and CEO

ADAC Automotive

NIGEL THOMPSON │ President and CEO

Yazaki North America, Inc.

JAMES VERRIER │ President and CEO

BorgWarner Inc.

DIRECTORS

Join. Engage. Advance.17

Chief Executive Officers (CEO)Jan. 11, May 2, Sept. 5,Dec 6

CEOs get the opportunity to query each other and other leading industry executives on various topics at

each meeting. Dialogue from recent CEO Council meetings covered capacity; finding, hiring, and retaining

qualified employees; and the impact of recent changes in healthcare laws.

Small & Medium Enterprise Presidents (SMEP)Mar. 23, Jun 15, Sept. 21, Dec. 14

SMEP meetings address the unique challenges facing suppliers with less than $150 million in annual

revenue. Subject matter experts and roundtable discussions cover a wide range of strategic and tactical

issues from a “small” business perspective. Recent topics have included global expansion, capital markets,

raw material and energy markets, and product development processes

Sales Executives (SEC)Feb. 23, Jun. 22, Sept. 7, Dec. 7

Each meeting offers supplier sales executives the opportunity to query OEM representatives, network with

industry peers, address commercial issues, and share best practices.

Chief Purchasing Officers (CPO) Jan 19, Apr. 20, Aug. 10, Nov. 9

Recent council discussion topics include make/buy decisions, material market forecasts and inventory

hedging strategies. CPO members also weigh in on issues such as conflict minerals and purchasing

organization benchmarks.

Product & Technology Development (PTD)Feb. 16, Jun. 1, Sept. 26, Nov. 2

PTD council meetings focus on short- and long-term product development trends at supplier companies –

with a particular focus on innovation. Recent topics include the future of automotive materials, advances in

3-D printing, and the costs/benefits of new safety technology.

Chief Information Officers (CIO)Mar. 7, Jun 6, Sept 12, Dec. 5

Focused on information technology (IT), the CIO council provides a common forum for members to

exchange ideas on various topics, such as developments in cloud computing, IT organization and design,

and cyber security.

Chief Financial Officers (CFO)Mar. 16, Jun. 22, Sept 20, Dec 7

This council explores a wide range of corporate and strategic risk and compliance issues. Recent focus

areas include tooling audits, revenue recognition, ERP implementations, and vehicle production outlooks.

Communication Executives (CEC)Feb. 8, Apr. 26, Aug. 23, Oct. 25

A forum for senior automotive communication executives to discuss strategic communications issues and

share best practices. Recent topics include social media, internal communications, and media relations.

OESA EXECUTIVE PEER GROUP COUNCILS (2017 DATES)

Join. Engage. Advance.18

Warranty Management (WMC)Mar. 30, Jun. 29, Sept. 28, Dec. 12

A unique automotive-specific forum for warranty professionals to discuss such issues as warranty

management data systems, and cost-recovery negotiations. Typically, an OEM representative

addresses the group at each meeting.

Environment, Health & Safety (EH&S)Feb. 9, May 11, Aug 24, Nov. 30

Members review and comment on regulatory and legislative issues related to health, safety, and the

environment, and provide policy input. Council members conduct numerous benchmarking surveys and

invite outside experts to speak on a broad range of issues. Members also share best practice

information on safety performance improvement, energy use, and sustainability.

Legal Issues (LIC)Jan. 17, Apr. 11, Jul. 11, Oct. 10

In-house counsel from supplier member companies discuss pressing legal issues, such as industry

terms and conditions, product liability, and intellectual property protection. The council also weighs in on

the ongoing analysis of OEM terms and conditions, and topics from other ad-hoc committees

Human Resources (HRC)Jan. 26, Apr. 27, Jul. 20, Oct. 19

The HRC draws on the specialized expertise of HR directors from member companies. Roundtable

discussions offer lively dialogue relevant to members. The council conducts surveys on topics ranging

from incentives for expatriate assignments to benefit coverage and corporate policies.

Automotive Public Relations (APRC)Jan. 25, Apr. 26, Jul. 12, Oct. 25

The APRC is a network of communications and public relations professionals dedicated to the

advancement of the automotive industry and their profession. The council serves as a networking and

information resource with the unique focus of promoting the automotive industry.

Young Leadership (YLC)YLC 4:Mar. 9, Jun. 8, Sept. 7

YLC 5: Feb. 2, May 4, Aug 17, Nov. 15

YLC provides a forum for member companies to develop and retain high-potential employees. Areas

covered include negotiating, customer service and leadership. Graduates are more prepared for added

responsibility and equipped for the next step in their career.

Government Affairs Committee (GAC) The GAC consists of motor vehicle parts manufacturers and remanufacturers, both small and large, that

serve every major segment of the motor vehicle industry. The GAC determines the key legislative

priorities of MEMA at the federal and state levels.

OESA EXECUTIVE PEER GROUP COUNCILS (2017 DATES)


CREATING A YOUNG LEADERSHIP COUNCIL

• Feedback from OESA Board and CEO Council

• OESA members regularly discuss the importance of talent attraction and

retention

• Recognize the need to cultivate hi-potential employees (outside of the company)

• OESA members looking for new ways to recognize and reward

accomplishments

• Broaden the view of the automotive industry

19


YOUNG LEADERSHIP COUNCIL

• Provides a forum to develop and retain key personnel on a management track or

otherwise considered to be a high potential employee.

• YLC members can expect to leave this two-year program well-rounded,

prepared for increased responsibility, and equipped for the next step in their

career with the member company.

20


PRESENTATION

Alumni Insight

Thomas Kowal,

Regional Commercial Director, TI Automotive (YLC1)

Luke Hugel,

Chief of Staff, Office of the President, Robert Bosch LLC (YLC3)

Christy Roadknight,

Sales Excellence Manager, Eaton (YLC3)

21


ALUMNI INSIGHTS

• Why do you think you are here?

• What do you think your company wants from you?

22


Why was YLC beneficial for us?

“It’s not what you know it is who you know”

• Benchmarking, industry understanding

• Other professionals are going through what we are i.e. life balance

• Networking (connections for future jobs and problem solving)

What did we learn?

“Work on the business not in the business” – M&A

• Insight into what our executives do

• Learned about tools i.e. market studies etc.

• Gained leadership tools, from leading industry trainers – ie. Presentation, motivating teams, change management.

• How to better network at industry events

• To take advantage of opportunities of learning i.e. meeting CEO’s, visiting companies & learning from our peers about how they tackled problems

• Learned leadership principles from heads of our industry

23

ALUMNI INSIGHTS


YOUNG LEADERSHIP COUNCIL ROUNDTABLE

Member Introductions

• Name

• Company

• Professional and personal highlights

24


AN INDUSTRY OUTLOOK AND THE METRICS BEHIND IT

Charles Chesbrough, Executive Director, Strategy, Research

and Senior Economist, OESA

26



US ECONOMIC AND

AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK

Q4 2016

Charles ChesbroughExecutive Director: Research, Analysis and Senior Economist

Original Equipment Suppliers Association

And Some Tricks To Help See It


• US Economic Outlook

• Status of Light Vehicle Demand and Supply

• Long-term Trends and Concerns

28

Agenda


• Real GDP – Economic signals mixed; Consumer confidence and many

sectors improving, but strong dollar hurting trade and energy crash impacting

investment. Growth weaker this year; next year improves from consumer

spending.

• Monetary Policy – FED expected to continue to raise interest rates, delayed

by weak global conditions and US labor market. Key Question: Do rising

wages support tightening?

• Fiscal Policy – Spending higher 2016 thanks to recent budget deal,

contributing to growth for first time in years, however the upcoming elections

creating massive uncertainty, and another fiscal cliff approaching in December

• Consumption – Real consumer spending keeping economy out of recession

- improving from higher net worth and wages, with low energy prices

contributing.

• Housing – Plenty of recovery left to go (Starts only at 2/3 of pre-crash

averages) however pace of growth now moderating as recovery enters later

stage.

• Employment – Job creation slowing, but still positive. Initial claims at 40 year

lows suggesting market tightening – should put upward pressure on wage

rates.

1.5

2.2

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

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03

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05

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07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

Real GDP Growth (%)

US: Economic OutlookNo recession forecasted but possibility continues to rise

Source: Wells Fargo assumption


-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

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00

20

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US: ConsumptionSpending growth is strong and trending higher; tighter labor markets will continue to support

30

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (monthly, annual change)

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of US

economic activity, and is now growth well above

overall economic growth rate of 2%. Other factors

holding back GDP – not consumers.


US: Housing MarketLots of recovery to go for new construction; Home prices gaining steam

Source: US Census Bureau, Wells Fargo

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

Single-Family Multi-Family

Housing Starts (millions)

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

Median, Existing Houses Median, New Houses

Median Home Sale Price (thousand US$)

Existing Home prices now above pre-recession

peaks; New Home prices much higher – demand

strong, new construction supply low

Source: US Census Bureau

Still far below pre-recession

levels – lots of upside will support

more employment/spending

Multi-Family construction much

greater share since recession


30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

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20

08

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Manufacturing index Nonmanufacturing index

Source: Institute for Supply Management, monthly survey data

Co

ntr

ac

tin

g

Ex

pa

nd

ing

ISM Purchasing Indexes (monthly, 50 = neutral)

• Manufacturing emerges modestly from

recessionary levels while Services makes

large gains on ordering activity.

• Services much larger share of US economy –

this is a metric to keep watching as it may be

an early signal of the next downturn.

US: Purchasing Managers’ IndexesBoth Services and Manufacturing showing recent improvement


$1,363

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

15%

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Loans Outstanding - L Annual Growth - R

Total Student Loans Outstanding (millions US$)

Source: Federal Reserve, Student Loans Outstanding

Now over 1.3 trillion $, up 175%

over last decade.

Growth rate decline - still high

Annual Growth

US: Debt Problems – Students and Uncle SamExplosion in debt hindering young buyers; Government debt impacting confidence and investment

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

-1,600,000

-1,400,000

-1,200,000

-1,000,000

-800,000

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Budget Deficit - L Total Debt % of GDP - R

Budget Balance (billions US$) Federal Debt % of GDP

Big Problem? Federal Debt

now $19 trillion

Or No Problem? Long term

bond yields remain < 3%


Source: US Energy Information Administration

US: Gasoline PricesPrices remain low relative to pre-Oil collapse, but now rising – pump price up 30% since February

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

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92

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96

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98

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00

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02

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08

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Retail Gasoline ($/Gallon) Weekly Price Change

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

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94

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96

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98

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Weekly Change - R

Price Volatility

1990s Avg 0.74%

2000s Avg 1.86%

2010s Avg 1.41%


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

US: Manufacturing - New OrdersStrong dollar, weak trade impacting manufacturing; Recent trend appears recessionary

35

Durable Goods Annual Change (3 month average)

Source: US Census Bureau – monthly, seasonally adjusted


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

$2,500

$2,700

$2,900

$3,100

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

US: Investment Business is pulling back since Q3 2015 peak; Recession approaching? History suggests Yes

36

Real Gross Private Domestic Investment (billion US$, quarterly)


Business investment now contracting –

collapse in energy sector having

significant implications.

Annual Change (quarterly, percent)

Historically, negative investment

growth occurs during recessions.

Recent data suggests economy now

re-entering contractionary period.


Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

US: Employment ConditionsEmployment conditions strong – concern is that economy doesn’t stay at these levels for long

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Initial Claims (4 week moving average)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Unemployment Rate (%)

3.8 years

5.69.8

11.16.5

9.6


1.0

2.0

1.2

2.8

1.6

2.7

8.4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Ma

r'7

0-N

ov'7

0

Jul'7

4-M

ay'7

5

Ma

r'8

0-J

ul'8

0

Jul'8

1-D

ec'8

2

Jun'9

0-J

ul'9

1

Feb

'01-A

ug'0

3

De

c'0

7-F

eb'1

0

Total Jobs Lost Manufacturing Jobs Lost

Service Jobs Lost

Recession Job Losses (millions)

Source: IHS Economics, US Department of Labor

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Job Creation (thousands, 12m average)

Source: Monthly, non farm payrolls, seasonal adjustment, BLS

US: Job CreationLayoffs different this past downturn – service sector dominated; Job creation remains strong

Positive job creation since October 2010 – longest stretch

in history - 14 million total since end of recession.



US: Wage Growth ObstaclesParticipation near 40 year lows – limited skills keeping folks away, but that may be changing

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Labor Force Participation Rate %

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

No High School Diploma

Some College

HS Graduate

College Graduate

Unemployment Rate % by Education Level

Participation now increasing

from 38 year lows



US: Job Market5.9 million openings; Quits rising too – workers gaining confidence, wages to follow

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Total Non-Farm Manufacturing

Openings: Jobs Open Per 100 Employed (3m average) Quits: Jobs Quit Per 100 Employed (3m average)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Total Non-Farm Manufacturing

Job opportunities strong – at 16 year highs –

well above pre-recession levels

Quits continue to rise, although within manufacturing they

remain relatively low. Higher worker confidence will force

business to raise wages to reduce turnover.


Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Production Non-supervisory

US: Labor Market WagesWage growth weak since recession; FED watching closely as a potential inflation “spark”

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

$22

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Average Earnings $/hr - L Annual Change 3m avg - R

Average Hourly Earnings (monthly) Annual Change (3m average)

Average Annual

Wage Growth

1986-2009: 3.2%

2010-2016: 2.1%


US: Inflation Energy prices keeping CPI low, but CORE just above FED 2% target

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

CPI Annual Change CPI Less Food & Energy

Consumer Price Index (monthly, annual change)



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

Federal Funds%

10-Year Treasury%

30 yr Mortgage%

Effective Federal Funds Rate (%, overnight)

Source: IHS Economics, current quarterly forecast

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Key Interest Rate Forecasts (%)

FED raised rates during 1970s

inflation, then lowered 1980-2015

to spur growth – never raised to

create growth

Global weakness + poor wage

growth impacting rate decisions

Cost of borrowing

to rise across

economy – vehicle

affordability to

weaken.

US: Interest RatesPace of increases slowing due to weak wages and exports; FED walking a tightrope

Source: Federal Reserve Bank





44

Agenda


4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Total Car Light Truck Column2

45

“Keep America

Rolling” “Employee Pricing

For All”

“Cash For

Clunkers”

Monthly Sales (SAAR, millions)


US: New Light Vehicle SalesPace has slowed since Q4, but still on track for record high

• Monthly sales SAAR fell to 16.9 in August from 17.9m in

July. Sales have slowed significantly from Fall 2015 when

market was moving at 18m pace.

• YTD sales up 0.4% - suggesting a record high of 17.5m in

2016: Light Truck sales up 7.6% while Car sales down

8.7% (only 39% share in September, 40% share YTD vs

45% last year)

• Light trucks leading market to record highs – popularity of

new CUV products, coupled with low gas prices and

strong buying conditions, supporting consumers’

purchases of larger, more expensive vehicles.

• Similar market seen in 2000s when rise of new SUVs, and

strong incentive activity and robust housing sector, led

consumers to choose light trucks over cars.

• Car share, which has fallen below 40% over recent

months, should regain some ground as market slows in

coming years. Consumers will seek affordability – lower

purchase price and ownership costs – as gas prices and

interest rates rise.


US: Housing Starts and Light Vehicle Sales

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Housing Starts SA LV Sales SAAR

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau

Housing Starts (thousands) Light Vehicle Sales (millions)


US: Housing Starts and Light Vehicle SalesSectors recovering at different speeds; housing has a long way to go

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Housing Starts - L LV Sales - R

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau

Housing Starts (thousands,12m avg) Light Vehicle Sales (millions,12m avg)

• Sectors are highly correlated – as expected: both

expensive products requiring confident, employed

buyers; dependent on interest rates

• Sectors’ timing has changed: Housing bubble in

mid-2000s didn’t lift vehicle sales – they had already

peaked years earlier

• Vehicle sales have had a strong V shaped recovery

and have reached all time highs while housing still

has a long way to go to reach previous peaks.

• More recovery in housing will only help vehicle

sales – more construction jobs, more economic

activity will support greater demand.


US: Consumer Sentiment and Light Vehicle Sales

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

UM Sentiment LV Sales SAAR

Consumer Sentiment Light Vehicle Sales

Sources: University of Michigan sentiment survey, 1966=100, US Bureau of Economic Analysis


US: Consumer Sentiment and Light Vehicle SalesOptimism improving since recession but still far below pre-2001

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Consumer Sentiment - L LV Sales - R

Incentive

Bubble

Consumer Sentiment (12m avg) Light Vehicle Sales (millions,12m avg)

Sources: University of Michigan sentiment survey, 1966=100, US Bureau of Economic Analysis

• A strong relationship exists between vehicle

sales and consumer sentiment. Confidence is

an important contributor to a robust vehicle

market - potential buyers must be confident in

their own economic situation before taking on a

big purchase like a new vehicle.

• Vehicle sales now exceed pre-crisis levels while

confidence still remains slightly behind, and is

far below the levels seen in the late 1990s/early

2000s when a strong economy and record high

equity markets ruled. In a post 9/11 world,

confidence may never exceed previous peaks

again.

• Labor agreements of early 2000s contributed to

an “Incentive Bubble” for the industry due to the

OEs’ price discount strategy: real demand fell,

but Detroit 3 UAW contracts required labor be

paid, utilized or not, less loss to build the

vehicle and employ large discounts support

sales


y = 2.9656x - 0.0683R² = 0.3429

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

50

US: Scatterplot of Economic Growth and LV SalesStatistically – a strong relationship, as expected, but now changing

Real GDP Growth (quarter, YOY)

LV

Sa

les

(q

ua

rter,

YO

Y)

Simple Regression Model:

Each 1% economic growth lifts sales 3%,

No growth – market contracts nearly 7%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Quarterly Data (1977 – 2016)


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

LV Sales Growth - L GDP Growth - R

51

US: Economic Growth and Light Vehicle SalesStrong relationship historically, but some divergence since 2009 recession

LV Sales Growth (quarterly, YOY) GDP Growth (quarterly, YOY)

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sales growing at much faster rate since

recession – new products, aggressive

financing lifting market above “normal”

Simple Regression Model:

Each 1% economic growth lifts sales 3%,

No growth – market contracts nearly 7%


US: Auto Loan Credit ConditionsCredit quality remains strong, but availability may be slowing down

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

Loans Outstanding - L Annual Change - R

Motor Vehicle Loans Outstanding (billion $) Annual Change (%)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Quarterly Data, Source: Experian, monthly data

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

First Mortgage Default Consumer Credit Default

Auto Loan Default

S&P/Experian Default Indices

Credit peaked in Q4 2005 –

long before recession began

Low default rate may explain

why auto credit has been so

strong since recession


14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Lease Share Fleet Share

Lease and Fleet Share of New Registrations

Source: IHS Automotive, GVW<10K, Light Vehicle Registrations Data – March 2016

US: Lease and Fleet ShareLow monthly payments driving market success; Recent Fleet increases may be warning sign

• Leasing has been a driving force for the

vehicle market’s recovery since the

recession – now approaching 30% of all

new sales.

• Strong used vehicle prices have supported

strong residual values which has allowed

for aggressive leasing – however used

prices now weakening, increasing OEM

leasing costs.

• Fleet sales – generally less profitable –

have been less important during the

recovery phase, however they have

jumped in 2016, suggesting a need by

OEMs to act more aggressively to reduce

inventories.


4.33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, commercial bank 48 month loan rate,

65.61

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Interest Rate 48 month loan (percent) US Average Loan Length (months)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank, New Car Loans at Finance Companies

US: New Vehicle FinancingLow rates and long terms keeping monthly payments low


-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Stronger Demand for Auto Loans

Tighter Standards for Auto Loans

Net

Res

po

nd

en

ts “

Ye

s”, in

pe

rce

nt

Sources: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Loan Officer Survey, 4 quarter average

$28,140

$24,500

$25,000

$25,500

$26,000

$26,500

$27,000

$27,500

$28,000

$28,500

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

US Average Amount Financed Auto Loan Availability

For a 4%, 5 year loan of $28K,

each 1% increase in rates adds

$13 to monthly payment, or

about $800 total.

FED rate increases may add

$2,000+ over near-term

US: Borrowing Conditions VulnerableConsumers spending all loan “savings”; Banking survey suggests change is coming

Jumped from -3 to

+8 last quarter


US: Light Vehicle Sales OutlookForecast varies among firms – if/when recession is key assumption

Annual Sales (millions)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

History PWC-Autofacts IHSMarket LMC Wells Fargo

• Year to date sales are up 0.5% over last year – at

this pace sales will reach a new peak over 17.5m

– however the pace has been slowing and many

expect the second half of the year to be weaker

than the first half.

• Forecasting firms are in general agreement on the

current year, but the outlook varies greatly over

the near-to-mid term.

• Some firms expect 2015 or 2016 to be the peak of

this cycle with sales slowing from here due to

higher oil prices, saturated market, less credit

availability, and a mild recession next year.

• Other firms are more optimistic and expect sales

to rise in 2017 and remain strong in 2018 with

continued job creation, stronger wages, and low

interest rates all supporting a robust market.

Trend: 1968-2008

Rising 125K/year


0

4

8

12

16

20

24

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

1-Shift 2-Shift 3-Crew/Shift NA Production

Production Capacity by Shift

Source: IHS Automotive, variable capacity estimate and production forecast, July 2016

North America: Light Vehicle Production ForecastImportant trends emerging – more variable capacity and more Mexico share

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

20

23

Canada Mexico US

Share of Region Production





58

Agenda


The Long-Term Automotive OutlookA new path may be emerging that will impact vehicle demand

59

Vehicle Demand

Technology

Applications

CO2

Regulations

Traffic/Congestion

Consumer &

Societal Trends

Alternative

Fuels


20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

New Buyers Used Buyers

All

Average Length of Ownership (months)

Source: IHS Automotive, Light Vehicle Registrations Data

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

Miles Traveled - L Miles Per Person - R

Source: Dept. of Transportation

Miles Traveled (trillions) Per Person Usage (000s)

Usage remains muted since recession

– still recovering

US: Consumer Behavior ChangingConsumers “investing”: keeping vehicles longer and using them less


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

19

00

19

10

19

20

19

30

19

40

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

Sources: IHS Automotive, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration Statistics, LV+HV

Motor Vehicles in Use Per 1000 People

Great DepressionWorld War 2

Great Recession

Gulf War I

No One Two 3+

vehicle

svehicle

vehicle

s

vehicle

s1960 21.5% 56.9% 19.0% 2.5%

1970 17.5% 47.7% 29.3% 5.5%

1980 12.9% 35.5% 34.0% 17.5%

1990 11.5% 33.7% 37.4% 17.3%

2000 9.4% 33.8% 38.6% 18.3%

2010 9.1% 33.8% 37.6% 19.5%

US Census Household Ownership Survey?

Disruptive

Technology

Shared/Autonomous Technologies

Ownership Impact:

US has experienced rapid changes before –

1960s to 1980s the largest

Today: If 10% of households changed

categories, ownership quickly reverts to 1980

levels – no car households rise by 5 million

US: Vehicle OwnershipAmerica loves cars – does the romance continue?


LEADERSHIP FROM MY PERSPECTIVE

Frank Venegas, Chairman, Ideal Shield LLC

63


LEADERSHIP FROM MY PERSPECTIVE

Ideal Shield recently featured by Google

Click here to view.

64

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NFBXSsRDr3U


GETTING DOWN TO BUSINESS

Getting Down to Business –

Council operations, objectives and deliverables

Ginger Juncker,


66


YOUNG LEADERSHIP COUNCIL

• Provides a forum to develop and retain key personnel on a

management track or otherwise considered to be a high potential

employee.

• YLC members can expect to leave this two-year program well-

rounded, prepared for increased responsibility, and equipped for the

next step in their career with the member company.

67


YLC5 2017 MEETING DATES

Next Meeting Date: February 2, 2017

2017 Meeting Dates:

• March 4

• August 17

• November 15

68


YLC ACTIVITIES – PARTICIPATE IN OESA EVENTS

• Gain an in-depth understanding of the automotive industry

• Attend OESA events

• At a significant discount (Annual Conference), or without cost to you

• Some limitations, registration required

• Remove the barriers of cost/budget concerns

• Attend other OESA Council meetings (invited)

• CEO Council meeting – January 2017

• Read OESA event notices; event calendar

69


LAST OEM TOWN HALL OF 2016

70

Dec. 2 Register Now! – Limited Space

Ford Town Hall Meeting

Ford Headquarters, Dearborn, MI


UPCOMING EVENTS

71

Oct. 21Register Now!

OESA Terms & Conditions Meeting

MSU Management Education Center, Troy, MI

Nov. 2Register Now! YLC Pricing

2016 OESA Annual Conference

COBO Center, Detroit, MI

Nov. 10Register Now!

OESA and Harbour Results Inc. 2016 Automotive Tooling Update

The Dearborn Inn, Dearborn, MI

Dec. 14

Save the Date!

West Michigan Regional Meeting

Grand Valley State University Eberhard Center, Grand Rapids, MI


OTHER IMPORTANT ITEMS TO NOTE

73

The YLC Website

Registering for Council Sessions

Registering for Events

- it’s always with Keiyania

YLC Billing Invoice

- it’s coming to YOU

http://oesa.org/Councils-Committees/Young-Leadership-Council

https://oesa.org/

http://oesa.org/Councils-Committees/Young-Leadership-Council


YOUNG LEADERSHIP COUNCIL GOALS

• What do you want out of your YLC Membership?

• What activities/topics would you like to see?

74



OESA YOUNG LEADERSHIP COUNCIL 5

KICK-OFF MEETING

October 20, 2016

OESA Conference Center

Supporting Partner:

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