minnesota demographic change
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Minnesota Demographic Change. Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration October 2005. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful , (Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road). Our economy no longer depends on our resource base - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Minnesota Demographic Change
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Mn Dept of Administration
October 2005
Minnesota Has Been Very Successful, (Especially For A Cold Weather State at the
End of the Road)
• Our economy no longer depends on our resource base
• Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average
• We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators
• Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success
Minnesota Is Now Substantially Above Average In Per Capita Personal Income
0.948 0.954
1.0891.078
0.90
0.95
1.00
1.05
1.10
Per Capita Income Per Capita DisposableIncome
Rat
io M
n t
o U
S
1950
2004
US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 1950 Mn was 1.87% of US total personal income. In 2004Mn was 1.89% of US total personal income
Minnesota Has Made Great Strides In Education Since 1950
35%
6%
91%
31%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
At Least A HighSchool Diploma
BachelorsDegree Or More
Percent of People Age 25+
1950 2003
Census
Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Social/Economic Indicators
• 4th lowest poverty rate
• 3rd percent of 16-64 employed
• 1st percent with health insurance
• 1st home ownership
• 8th median family income
• 10th in personal income per capita in 2004 - 25th
in 1960
• 11th Per capita disposable income
• 4th percent of children in married couple families
• 2nd percent with at least high school diploma
• 1st United Health Foundation ranking of state healthiness
• 3rd Kids Count 2005
Selected indicators for 2004
Minnesota is Growing—Rapidly For The Frost Belt
• Minnesota adds about half a million people per decade—713,000 by 2020
• Census Bureau has us growing faster than any other Midwest and northeast state
• Projections have us maintaining our 8 congressional seats
Minnesota is Prosperous, But…
We still have people in need and those people can get lost in a sea of prosperity
Part of the reason we are so special is that we are not very diverse. This is changing
Aging will move our attention away from issues of children and youth
Our future depends in great degree on how we resolve disparities especially in education and health
Many Social/Economic Indicators Are Related And Also Related To Big
Demographic Trends
1. Suburbanization
2. Aging
3. Increased diversity
Sources Of Minnesota Population Change 2000-2004
Immigration Accounts For 33% Of Growth
126,925
60,274
-7,728
181,466
-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Natural Increase
InternationalMigration
Domestic Migration
Total Change
Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut
• Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the state
• Suburban ring is spreading outward
• 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation
• Rural and central city declines sine 1950
• Population growth is related to economic growth—huge differences exist in life experiences and prosperity
Population Change
Loss
Gain Under 1,000
Gain 5,000 to 1,000
Gain More Than 5,000
Population Change 2000-04Census Bureau Estimate
Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation
• It is not normal for a society to age
• Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond
• By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double
This Decade And Next Will See Dramatic Differences In Growth In Key Age Groups
-0.2%
0.1%
2.3%
5.4%
1.0%
0.4%
-0.5%
1.3%
3.0%
0.3%
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
E-12 Education (5-17)
Higher Education (18-24)
Long-Term Care (85+)
Retirement (60-64)
Prime Working Age (16-64)
Average Annual Growth Rate
2005-10 2010-20
Minnesota Births 1926 to 2003
0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
100000
Births
Deaths
Minnesota’s Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in 2011
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-24
65+
5-17
Census counts & State Demographer projection
Minnesota is Growing More Diverse
• Minnesota is not very diverse—13% minority v US 32%
• Over half of total population growth this decade is minority.
• Diversity also means culture, language, religion, national origin—all changing
Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation
4.1%
6.3%
5.8%
8.8%
8.7%
24.4%
8.1%
12.8%
8.7%
12.5%
13.5%
32.1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Iowa
Minnesota
North Dakota
South Dakota
Wisconsin
United States
Percent Population of Color
2003
1990
Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2003 Census Bureau estimate
Students Of Color Are Increasing While White Students Are Declining
-41,938
12,367 13,510
3,381522
-12,158
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
White Black Hispanic Asian Am Indian Total
Ch
ang
e E
nro
llm
ent
1999
to
200
3
Mn Dept of Education data
Change In Minnesota School Enrollments 1999-00 to 2004-05 By Language Spoken At Home
-43,974
25,460
-18,514
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
English Speaking
Total Non English
Total K-12 Students
Number Of Immigrants Admitted With Intended Residence of Minnesota
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
Most Of Minnesota’s 339,000 Foreign Born People Entered The US In Since 1990
2000 or later20%
1990-9941%
1980-8921%
Before 198018%
Net Number
Zero
1 to 100
100 to 500
500 to 1000
1000 to 5000
5000 to 18,000
Immigration 2000-02Five-State Area County Population
Age Distribution of Minnesota’s Foreign Born & Total Populations
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Under
55
to 9
10 to
14
15 to
19
20 to
24
25-2
9
30-3
4
35-3
9
40-4
4
45-4
9
50-5
4
55-5
9
60 to
64
65-6
9
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
485
+
Foreign Born Total
2000 Census 5% PUMS
The Top Ten Countries Account For 55% Of Minnesota’s Immigration In 2004
Somalia 1,445
Ethiopia 798
India 707
Mexico 692
Philippines 569
Vietnam 503
Kenya 488
China 469
Liberia 468
Russia 302
Dept of HomelandSecurity
Non-English Speaking Students: While Minneapolis and St. Paul have the largest numbers, some
smaller districts also have substantial proportions
34.2%30.3%
29.6%29.7%29.4%
41.1%29.3%
39.1%9.8%
3.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Brooklyn Center
Butterfield
Minneapolis
Lynd
Richfield
St. Paul
Sleepy Eye
Worthington
State 04-05
State 93-94
Percent of Students in 2004-05
Source: Mn Dept of Education data
Health Care Costs Will Crowd Out Other Spending And Investment , Both Private
And Public
116153
224241
264275
490
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
1993 1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2014
NH
E i
n B
illi
on
s
State/Local
Federal
Private
Heffler, et al., Health Affairs, Feb 2005, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services