ministry of regional development - european parliament · ministry of regional development 2....

MINISTRY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

1

Impact of cohesion policy Impact of cohesion policy on Polish economyon Polish economy

June 19th,

2013

Paweł

Orłowski Undersecretary of State in PolishMinistry

of Regional

Development

Ministry of Regional Development


2

ImpactImpact

ofof

thethe

EU EU fundsfunds

on on thethe

GDP GDP raterate

ofof

growthgrowth

In

the

period

2007‐2012,

Poland

was

the

country

with

the

highest

GDP

growth

in

the

European

Union

with

annual

average of about 4.0%

vis‐a‐vis

0.4% in the EU‐27. Polish

economy

remained

on the path of economic growth even in

the crisis years of 2009 ‐

2010. In 2012,

Poland,

with the

GDP growing

by 1.9% (as opposed

to

0.3% in the EU‐27)

was in

the

group

of

growth

leaders

together

with

other

NMS (Slovakia, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia). The

access

to the

EU funds

essentially

contributed

not only

to the

relatively

high economic

growth

but also

to avoiding

recession in 2009.

It

is

estimated

that

the

EU

funds

allowed

the

GDP

growth

in

2012

to

be

higher

by

about

0.8‐1.1

pp,

than

in

the

scenario

without

EU

funds.

According

to

economic

models,

in

2004‐2015

GDP

growth

is

higher

about

0.7

pp.

than

in

the scenario without the inflow of EU funds.

GDP rate of growth in the years 2007‐2012, selected EU‐27 countries

-20,0

-15,0

-10,0

-5,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

Estonia Lithuania Latvia Poland Sweden Slovakia EU-27

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


3

GDP GDP changeschanges

inin

thethe

EUEU

Poland

has

recorded

the

higest

GDP growth, i.e. thanks

to the

highest

cohesion

policy’s

monetary

transfers

in

the

country’s

history.

GDP per capita (PPS)In 2011 (EU‐27=100)GDP per capita (PPS)In 2011 (EU‐27=100)

PKB per capita (PPS)w 2011 r. (UE-27=100)

127 do 271 (5)

109 do 127 (5)

85 do 109 (5)

67 do 85 (6)

46 do 67 (6)

Średnioroczne tempo wzrostu PKB w latach 2007-2012

3,9

Austria

Belgia

Bu³garia

Cypr

Republika Czeska

Niemcy

Dania

Estonia

Hiszpania

Finlandia

Francja

Wielka Brytania

Grecja

Wêgry

Irlandia

W³ochy

Litwa

Luksemburg

£otwa

Malta

Niderlandy

Polska

Portugalia

Rumunia

Szwecja

S³owenia

S³owacja1,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,1

0,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,80,8

1,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,61,6

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

1,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,2

1,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,2

-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5-0,5

0,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,4

-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1

0,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,4

0,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,40,4

0,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,2

-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1-3,1

-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8-0,8

-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2-0,2

-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9-0,9

1,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,21,2

1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111

-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6

1,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,81,8

0,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,60,63,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,93,9

-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6-0,6

1,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,31,3

1,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,41,4

0,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,20,2

3,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,43,4

0 200 400

kilometry

�ród³o: Eurostat

GDP per capita (PPS)In 2011 (EU‐27=100)

to

to

to

to

to

Average

GDP growth

in

the

years

2007‐2012

Source: Eurostat

km


4

ImpactImpact

ofof

thethe

EU EU fundsfunds

on on thethe

levellevel

ofof

GDP per capita (GDP per capita (atat

PPS) PPS) comparedcompared

to to thethe

EUEU‐‐27 27 averageaverage

In

the

period

2007‐2011,

the

gap

between

Poland

and

the

EU‐27

average

level

of

GDP

per

capita

(in

PPS)

decreased

markedly ‐

by

12

pp.

Due

to

the

relatively

high

rate

of

GDP

growth,

Poland

was

the

EU

leader

in

term

of

the

speed

of

convergence

in

economic

development. The

impact

of

the

EU

funds

on bridging

of

the

gap

is

estimated

at least 15‐20%.

Nevertheless, the difference in

the

level of development between Poland and the EU remains

significant (in

2011 Poland’s

GDP per capita was about

64% of the EU‐27

average).

It

is

expected

that

in

2015,

the

progress

in

„catching‐up”

process

due

to

the

EU

funds

will

amount

to

5.0

pp.,

allowing

Poland to

reach

70% of

the

EU‐27 average

level of GDP per capita.

GDP per capita PPS (EU-27=100) in

selected

countries

0

20

40

60

80

100

Poland Romania Slovakia Bulgaria Latvia Malta Lithuania

2006 2012

11

10

8

5

8

1112


5

ImpactImpact

ofof

thethe

EU EU fundsfunds

on on investmentinvestment

raterate

The

investments

in

infrastructure

and

support

to

enterprises

financed

from

the

EU

funds

contribute

significantly to the revival of investment activity in Poland, leading to

both

higher growth rate of gross

fixed capital formation and

to an

increase in

the rate of investment.

Since the increase in investment takes

place simultaneously

with

the

GDP growth, the

resultant

impact

on the

level

of

the

investment

rate

is

not straightforward. However, simulations

show that investment

growth

is faster,

leading

to an

estimated increase in the investment rate of

about 2,6‐4,3 pp. compared

to a scenario without

the

EU funds.

Investment rate (%)

18,1 18,219,7

21,6 22,321,2

19,9 20,2 19,4

3,4 3,4 3,9 4,2 4,6 5,2 5,6 5,74,6

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total investment rate Public investment rate


6

ImpactImpact

ofof

thethe

EU EU fundsfunds

on on thethe

employmentemployment

raterate

(15(15‐‐64)64)

In 2012 the employment rate amounted to 59.7% and in recent years (since 2008)

remained stable. At the same

time,

an

average employment rate in the EU‐27 fell from 65.8 to 64.2%.

At the time of

Poland’s

accesss

to the EU, the

country was

characterized

by the lowest employment rate

in

the

EU, and

until

the

end

of

2012

it

has

recorded the highest growth rate

of

this

indicator

‐

by 8.3 pp.

The

EU funds

stopped

the

employment

rate

in

Poland

from

falling

even

in

the

times

of

crisis.According

to the

models, it

is estimated that

in

2012

the use of

the

EU funds led to the

growth

of

the employment rate by

2,6‐3.5 pp. In the entire

2004‐2015 period the

average

annual

impact of cohesion policy amounts

to about 1.6‐2.4 pp.

40

50

60

70

EU-27 Portugal Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovakia Ireland Bulgaria Romania Spain Malta Italy Hungary Greece

2006 2011

Employment

rate

in

the

selected

EU‐27 countries


7

ImpactImpact

ofof

thethe

EU EU fundsfunds

on on thethe

unemploymentunemployment

raterate

In

recent

years,

the

unemployment

rate

(annual

average)

in

Poland

stood

at

roughly

the

EU

average.

The

crisis

has

contributed

to

the

rise

in

the

unemployment

rate,

though

in

2012

(at

10.1%

in

Poland)

this

indicator

was lower than the EU‐27 average (10.5%). In the

period 2007‐2012 Poland recorded

the

second

biggest drop

(3.8

pp.) following

the

Germany

(4,8 pp.).

The

EU funds allowed

to moderate

the

growth

in

the unemployment rate in 2012. According to the models,

in

2012 the

unemployment rate was lower thanks to EU funds

by 3.5 – 3.9 pp.,

while

in the years 2004‐2015

the

average

annual

impact

of

cohesion

policy

on

the

reduction

in

unemployment

rate

will

amount

to

2.1‐

2.5. pp.

Unemployment

rate

in

selected

countries

EU‐27

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

Poland Hungary Bulgaria Estonia Portugal Slovakia Ireland Lithuania Latvia Greece Spain EU-27

2006 2012


8

Cohesion

Policy

implemented

in

V4

countries

brings

also

measurable

direct

and

indirect

benefits

to

other

EU

Member

States

(including

in

particular

those

who

contribute

the most to the EU budget);

These

benefits

result

both

from

the

growing

involvement

of

foreign

contractors

(11%

of

total

benefits)

in

projects

implemented

in

V4

counties,

as

well

as

from

the

increased

demand

for

goods

imported

from

such

countries

(89% of

total

benefits);

Each

net

euro

invested

under

the

Cohesion

Policy

by

EU15

comes

back

in

the

form

of

additional

exports

of

61

cents.

It

is

estimated

that

for

certain

countries

this

result

is

much

higher.

TransnationalTransnational

effectseffects

ofof

CohesionCohesion

Policy Policy implementationimplementation::

Comparison of total benefits of EU15 to net contributions of individual

EU15 countries, in the part related to the implementation of the

Cohesion Policy in V4

Source: Assessment of benefits obtained by EU‐15 countries as a result of Cohesion Policy implementation in Poland ‐

2010

update

–

research commissioned by the MRD and implemented by the Institute of Structural Research (2010)


9

TransnationalTransnational

effectseffects

ofof

CohesionCohesion

Policy Policy implementationimplementation::

Comparison of total benefits of EU15 to net contributions of individual

EU15 countries, in the part related to the implementation of the

Cohesion Policy in V4

The

greatest

macroeconomic

benefits

are

expected

for Germany; this result

is

arising

from

the

fact

that

Germany

is

the

largest

trading

partner

of

all

four V4 countries;

EU

Cohesion

Policy

has

a

balancing

role

for

the

economies–

its

effects

in

the

form

of

additional

export

are

not

very

much

sensitive

to

the

emergence

and

scale

of

economic

crisis;

Additional

exports

are

dominated

by

medium tech

products

(60%);

Considerable

share

of

high

tech

products

(22%)

is

a

proof

of

a

very

advantageous

structure

of

additional

exports.

Source: Assessment of benefits obtained by EU‐15 countries as a result of Cohesion Policy implementation in Poland ‐

2010 update– research commissioned by the MRD and implemented by the Institute of Structural Research (2010)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

DE IT NL FR UK AT IE BE SE ES FI DK PT LU GR

2008‐2015 2004‐2008

Estimation of the additional exports from EU15 to V4 countries as a

result of the Cohesion Policy 2004‐2015 (EUR billion at 2005 prices)


10

MinistryMinistry

ofof

RegionalRegional

DevelopmentDevelopment WspWspóólna 2/4 lna 2/4 StreetStreet

WarsawWarsaw, , PolandPoland www.mrr.gov.plwww.mrr.gov.pl www.funduszestrukturalne.gov.plwww.funduszestrukturalne.gov.pl

ThankThank

youyou

veryvery

much much for for youryour

attentionattention

Ministry

of

Regional

Development

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