MARCOscope – Special focus

April 2013

Mind the gap!

(Polish external imbalance)

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

Foreword

2

Polish assets are benefitting from growing interest of foreign investors. Value of marketable treasury securities held by

non-residents hit another all-time high in February, exceeding PLN200bn (almost 37% of the whole issue). This brings

down servicing costs of public debt, which surely is positive news for the finance ministry. Still, inflow of the foreign

capital – apart from benefits – has its negative consequences, like growing foreign debt and increasing vulnerability of

the economy to swings in investors’ moods on the global markets.

Risks related to growing dependency on foreign financing were recently stressed by the NBP Governor Marek Belka. In

his view this is one of the major factors preventing the MPC from more significant monetary policy easing – ultra-low

interest rates are a recognised source of macroeconomic imbalances, and the MPC wants to avoid that.

Macroeconomic imbalances and excessive dependency on foreign financing are main culprits of current crisis in the euro

zone and they make it more difficult to overcome, so these issues are taken under scrutiny of investors and

policymakers. The European Commission has been investigating macroeconomic imbalances of particular EU countries

since February 2012 with use of Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard.

Poland’s standing is rather favourable as compared to other EU countries. We fulfil most of macroeconomic stability

criteria outlined in this scoreboard, with an exemption of two indicators covering external imbalances – average current

account balance and net international investment position. We presented some of the macroeconomic imbalance

indicators for Poland versus other countries in MACROscope in May 2012.

In this publication we are trying to elaborate on external imbalances in the Polish economy, assess their sources, risks

and costs related to this phenomenon as well as think about possible actions, which can put a stop to further swelling of

potential threats.

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Symptoms of external imbalance

3

External imbalance of an economy is showed,

among others, by balance of payments statistics,

reflecting international capital flows due to foreign

trade and investments.

According to Macroeconomic Imbalance

Procedure Scoreboard, two indicators that

exceed threshold levels in case of Poland relate

to balance of payments statistics:

Current account balance – Poland has been

registering current account deficits since mid-90,

temporarily even quite high ones, which means

that the country is a net importer of capital; last

year deficit narrowed to ca. -3.5% of GDP, but 3-

year average exceeded the MIP Scoreboard’s

threshold (between -4 and +6% of GDP).

Net international investment position – is

reflecting accumulated current account balances;

in Poland we see systematically growing negative

net position, reaching all-time high both in

nominal (PLN1048bn or €256bn) and relative

terms (-65.6% of GDP) in 2012.

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Poland’s net international investment position

€bn (lhs) % of GDP (rhs)

MIP Scoreboard

threshold

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Current account balance

€bn (lhs) % of GDP (rhs)

MIP Scoreboard

threshold

Source: NBP, CSO

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

External debt at all-time high

4

Another indicator of external imbalances and of

growing dependency on foreign financing, often

observed by investors, is gross external debt,

which reached all-time high at PLN1129bn

(€276.1bn) in 2012.

External debt in relation to GDP declined slightly

last year (to 70.7%), but still remains close to

historical high.

Strong upward tendency is mainly to blame on

public sector – during last four years debt of this

sector (both in nominal terms and relative to GDP)

more than doubled!

Earlier the non-financial sector (mostly companies)

was also quickly raising its foreign indebtedness.

Value of non-financial sector’s foreign debt

amounted to ca. PLN446bn (28% of GDP) at the

end of 2012. This is by ca. PLN200bn more than

debt of Polish companies in the Polish banking

system. More than half of this amount accounts for

companies’ debt against their shareholders

(mother companies).

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

PLNbn Poland’s gross external debt

PLNbn (lhs)

% of GDP (rhs)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

PLNbn Gross external debt by sectors

NBP

General government sector

Banking sector

Non-public and non-banking sector

Sourc

e:

NB

P

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Negative investment position at all-time high

5

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

PLNbn Net international investment position: main components

Net IIP

Polish direct investments abroad

Polish portfolio investments abroad

Other foreign investments: assets

Official reserves

Foreign direct investments in Poland

Foreign portfolio investments in Poland

Other foreign investments: liabilities

However, net international investment position

is a more complex and universal gauge of

external indebtness. It shows a difference

between total financial assets and liabilities of

domestic entities against non-residents. It

accounts not only for assets and liabilities due to

loans and financial instruments, but also due to

capital (direct) investments.

Negative positions means that liabilities of a

country versus other countries are higher than its

assets, hence the country is a net debtor.

Data show that swelling external imbalance of

Poland is mostly relevant to inflow of foreign

direct investments.

Recently we recorded a considerable increase in

importance of other foreign investments (mainly

loans) and portfolio investments (growing

engagement of foreign investors in Polish debt

securities).

The value of foreign portfolio investment in

Poland amounts to ca. 156% of Polish FX

reserves.

Domestic investments abroad are still paltry.

Source: NBP

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Domestic savings deficit = surplus of non-residents

6

An alternative way to look at negative investment

position is to analyse domestic financial

accounts.

Financial accounts are reflecting balance of

financial assets and liabilities of particular

institutional sectors. Sum of net financial assets

(assets minus liabilities) of domestic sectors and

non-resident is as a rule equal to zero

If net assets of all domestic sectors are above

zero, then the country shows a financial surplus,

which can be lend/invested abroad. Otherwise the

country needs to import capital. Sum of net

financial assets of domestic sectors is equal to net

international investment position.

Data on financial accounts show that accumulation

of net debt vs. non-residents in the Polish

economy was mainly caused by growing

indebtedness of non-financial sector (companies)

and public sector, with balanced financial

institutions’ sector and marked surplus of

households sector.

-1600

-1200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1200

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

20

12

q3

mld zł Net financial accounts by institutional sectors

Domestic sectors together

Non-residents

Non-financial companies

Financial institutions

General government

Households

Source: Eurostat, NBP

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Poland on the global map of debt

7

How does Poland compare versus other countries

in terms of the foreign debt?

According to McKinsey Global Institute report, in

2010 Poland was the 10th most indebted country

in the world in terms of nominal value!

In relation to GDP the situation is a bit better, but

Poland belongs to countries with moderately

high external imbalance.

In spite of that, Poland has stayed relatively

resistant to the global financial crisis and volatile

investors’ mood. What is more, currently the

Polish market is perceived as "a regional safe

haven in CEE" (Moody's).

On the other hand, Moody’s has pointed out that

high external imbalance is one of the main reason

diminishing possibility of Poland’s rating upgrade.

The level of gross external debt in Poland and

negative net international investment position are

not yet as high as in the periphery of the euro

area. However, it seems that further growth of

these statistics would not be favourable for the

economy, moving Poland towards the risk zone.

Net International investment position (IIP) and gross

external debt, 2011 (% of GDP)

Source: IMF

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Excessive investments or too small savings?

8

An accumulation of external debt is, basically, a

consequence of the imbalance between domestic

investments and savings.

If domestic investments exceed savings

persistently (as in Poland) then import of foreign

capital is needed to finance investments. This is

reflected in current account deficit, which is being

accumulated in growing negative investment

position.

The level of gross investments in the Polish

economy – at 21% of GDP on average during the

last two decades – is more or less in line with

average of OECD countries or EU countries.

However, it is significantly lower than average for

emerging markets (ca. 27%) or CEE countries (ca.

25%).

At the same time, the level of savings (18% of

GDP) is significantly below the average for both

developed (20-21% of GDP) and emerging

countries (ca. 27% of GDP, in CEE region above

22%).

It suggests that the source of imbalance in Polish

balance of payments lies not in excessive growth

of investments, but in too low domestic savings.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

% PKB

Savings and investments vs balance of payments

Gross investments Gross savings Current account

Source: IMF

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Low assets of households in Poland

9

If we want to answering the question which sector of economy is the most responsible for gap in domestic savings,

we should look at financial accounts, but in international comparison .

Polish enterprises are less leveraged in comparison with situation in other European countries – Poland is among

five countries of EU with the lowest negative net assets of this sector to GDP ratio. What is more, this relation

remained more or less stable in last several years (Poland’s companies did not borrow excessively).

The level of net debt of Poland’s central and local governments, despite significant growth in last four years, has

remained relatively moderate.

However, the most interesting in international comparison are relatively low net assets of households (in the

relation to the scale of the economy), not only in Poland, but also in other countries of the CEE region versus the

developed countries.

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

% of GDP Net financial assets by institutional sectors (2011)

Non-financial companies Financial institutions

Central and municipal institutions Households

Domestic net financial assets

Source: Eurostat

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Low households’ savings external imbalance?

10

Comparison of international data shows a rather

clear relation between households’ savings and

scale of external imbalance (as measured by net

international investment position).

In countries, where net (and gross, actually)

financial assets of households are relatively high as

compared to GDP, high negative international

investment position are scarce – but obviously

possible given excessively leveraged enterprises or

public sector.

Thus, increase of Polish households’ savings

seems crucial to decrease external imbalance in

longer term.

At the same time, net debt of other sectors is

important as well. Fiscal consolidation and lower

public debt will surely contribute to curbing

imbalances, but – as data show – this does not

solve the problem. On the other hand, it is difficult to

expect major deleveraging of the companies sector,

also due to the fact that it is not highly indebted.

Netherlands

Denmark

Germany Belgium Finland

Italy Czech Republic

Slovenia Slovakia

Poland Romania

Cyprus Greece Spain

Latvia Hungary

Portugal Ireland

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

50

100

150

200

250

Inte

rna

tio

na

l in

ve

stm

en

t p

ositio

n (

% o

f G

DP

) Net financial assets of households (% of GDP)

Net financial assets of households vs net international investment position in the EU

countries (2011)

Source: Eurostat

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

From the other side: sources of current account deficit

11

We should also take a glance on the Poland’s

external imbalances from the other side:

If negative investment position is due to current

account deficit, present since mid-90., then what

caused this deficit? And can it be reduced?

For a long time, trade deficit – negative balance

of goods and services – was the main driver of

current account deficit.

From 2004 on, another element has become

important: increasing negative income balance.

Vicious circle: the more negative the

investment position is, the higher the

outflows of capital (incomes on invested

funds) become. This trend will continue!

Goods and services balance has markedly

improved recently – we are recording a surplus

instead of a deficit! Key question: is it a cyclical

adjustment or a persistent phenomenon?

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

€bn Current account deficit: main components

Current accountGoods and services balanceGoods balanceServices balanceIncome balanceCurrent transfers balace

Source: NBP

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Excessive imports or too low exports?

12

In order to assess if the recently observed

improvement in trade balance is persistent, it is

worth asking if the Poland’s trade deficit was due

to weakness of exports or to excessive import

growth.

Historical data show not only a lack of statistically

significant positive relation between annual

changes of goods/services balance and growth of

exports, but also suggest a reverse relation – most

considerable deterioration of trade balances was

usually accompanied by a quite quick increase of

exports.

This is suggesting that problems with trade

deficit do not stem from too weak exports.

Probably it is excessive imports to be blamed, as

their considerable declines during economic

downturns were improving trade balance (but only

temporarily).

Polish exports of goods and services were doing

well recently and this is shown by the rising share

in domestic GDP and in global foreign trade over

last years.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-10 -5 0 5

10

15

20

Exp

ort

s o

f g

oo

ds a

nd

se

rvic

es –

an

nu

al

ch

an

ge

(€

bn

)

Goods and services balance – annual change (€bn)

Exports vs trade deficit

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Share of Polish exports in GDP and in global trade

exports / GDP (lhs)

Poland's share in global trade (rhs)

Source: NBP, CSO, IMF

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

What was the source of success of Polish exports?

13

The source of success of Polish exports in last

two decades was mainly the low-cost advantage.

Polish companies managed to keep labour costs

under control – during over a dozen of years the

real unit labour costs decreased the most in the

whole EU. This was due to fast increase in

productivity, as its growth rate nearly doubled the

wage growth.

This was also supported by a slight appreciation

of real effective exchange rate.

Polish companies competed by low costs in

sectors of relatively low manufactured goods.

We became a cheap producer of components to

final goods – over a half of Polish exports

consists of intermediate goods.

Still, staying in this role in long time horizon may

be difficult regarding the demographic changes –

relative labour costs will have to increase.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115Real unit labour costs in EU (1Q2000=100)

PL CEE3 BALT EZ-CORE PIIGS

Source: Eurostat, for Greece and Portugal total for wage- and non-wage costs is presented

PL - Poland; CEE3 – Czech Rep., Slovakia, Hungary; BALT – Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia; EZ-CORE – Austria,

Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany; PIIGS – Greece, Spain, Ireland,

Portugal, Italy

0

10

20

30

40

50

Nor

way

Sw

eden

Den

mar

k

Bel

gium

Luxe

mbo

urg

Fra

nce

Net

herla

nds

Fin

land

Aus

tria

Ger

man

y

Irel

and

EA

17

Italy

EU

27

Gre

at B

ritai

n

Spa

in

Cyp

rus

Gre

ece

Slo

veni

a

Mal

ta

Por

tuga

l

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Slo

vaki

a

Hun

gary

Pol

and

Lativ

ia

Lith

uani

a

Rom

ania

Bul

garia

Hourly labour costs in €, 2012

Wages Non-wage costs

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

… and what fuelled imports?

14

The source of increasing external imbalance in

the euro zone’s peripheral countries before the

crisis was excessive internal demand that was

financed by inflow of cheap foreign capital. In

Spain the capital was financing the real estate

sector while in Greece and Portugal it was

attracted mainly by consumption.

In Poland (particularly after joining the EU) we

faced roughly the same situation – credit

expansion in 2005-2008 + rising inflow of EU

funds + high inflow of direct and portfolio

investments and foreign loans. This may be

described as a combination of Greek and Spanish

scenario: inflow of capital was financing

consumption and construction sector (real estate

+ infrastructure).

Still, this process was less rapid and did not last

that long as in the euro zone’s peripheries (it was

terminated by 2008/2009 financial crisis).

The structure of inflow of foreign investments was

additionally supporting the domestic market and

not the export oriented sectors – relatively small

part of these investments was transferred to

production sectors (share of foreign direct

investments streamed to manufacturing declined

from more than 60% in mid-90 to ca. 35%

recently).

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

bn USD Inflow of foreign direct investments to Poland

tradable goods tradable services nontradables

Source: OECD

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

What are the conclusions?

15

External imbalance of the Polish economy – reflected in current account deficit and rising foreign debt – is a structural

problem resulting from low domestic savings. In particular, low (as a ratio to GDP) net financial assets of Polish

households.

Increase of net domestic financial assets is necessary to improve Polish international investment position.

Visible increase of savings of households seems to be the key to prevent further increase of external imbalance in the

long run. This may be hard to achieve given clear decline of propensity to save of households recorded during last few

years – in 2H 2012 close to zero!

This case is probably one of main reasons why the Monetary Policy Council wants to keep real interest rates in positive

territory. Still, it is hard to judge whether the level of real interest rates had key impact on households’ propensity to

save and whether the increase of rates (and to what level?) could reverse this process.

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1Q

00

4Q

00

3Q

01

2Q

02

1Q

03

4Q

03

3Q

04

2Q

05

1Q

06

4Q

06

3Q

07

2Q

08

1Q

09

4Q

09

3Q

10

2Q

11

1Q

12

4Q

12

Saving rate of households and real interest rate

Gross saving rate

WIBOR3M/CPI

It cannot be excluded, that the source of low rate of

savings is the low rate of payment for labour efficiency.

Along with the process of catching up the level of life,

this prompted households to increase credit in order to

consume more. Thus, for higher households' savings

higher level of income may be required (but this is the

long-term perspective).

But this questions the continuation of the model relying

on low costs of production.

In these circumstances, from the point of view of

balance of domestic savings, the both fiscal

consolidation and public debt reduction seem to be

crucial and desired.

Source: CSO, BZ WBK

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

What are the threats of excessive imbalance?

16

What are main threats resulting from an excessive external imbalance?

First, the risk of financial crisis – high imbalance increases the country’s sensitivity for swings of foreign investors

moods and rising costs connected with possible lower trust of the markets. In severe situations, investors may

refuse to roll over the debt and this may lead to a sudden stop of capital inflow and may need fast adjustment on

the current account balance which often leads to recession.

Fortunately, the level of external balance in case of Poland – though it is not low – does not rather make

materialization of such scenario likely. Common measures of risk followed by investors (ratio of currency

reserves to short-term foreign debt, ratio of short-term foreign debt to GDP) are not at alarming levels.

Second, rising costs for the economy – the more capital invested in a country, the more must be paid each year

to foreign investors as a return on investment. This is reflected in rising negative balance of incomes and rising

difference between GDP and GNP: in Poland this is already PLN70bn per year (4.5% of GDP).

High external imbalance is also a threat to long-term economic growth. High accumulated negative investment

position constrains the pace at which level of development of rich countries can be reached – clear acceleration

of potential growth would likely require increasing investments. Amid low domestic savings and already high

negative investment position this would surely lead to further increase of external imbalance to levels that may be

perceived as dangerous.

Additionally, the case of external imbalance has to be taken under consideration regarding the preparations

before entering the euro zone. It has to be stressed, that entering the euro zone with structural external

imbalance it will be hard to change this situation because (a) competitiveness of exports cannot be increased

through the exchange rate channel, (b) lower real interest rates will not support domestic savings, (c) entering the

euro zone may intensify the inflow of foreign capital and the situation from 2005-2008 may be repeated i.e.

financing the excessive expansion of domestic demand and making the imbalance even more significant.

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Doomed to more debt?

17

While the external imbalance may increase quite fast (Ireland needed only 2 years to increase its external negative

position from -26% to -100% of GDP), its reduction is usually a long, difficult and costly process. The problem of

countries with high debt is, among others, rising costs of servicing foreign debt (reflected in negative income balance).

This is also the case of Poland, where the negative balance of income became most important element of current

account deficit. This constrains room for halting the increasing foreign debt.

In order to stop further increase in negative net international investment position, the negative income balance should

be offset by (at least) equal surplus in balances of goods and services, current transfers and in capital account. Under

current circumstances (i.e. assuming current transfers and capital accounts similar to these from one year ago), this

means that Poland requires a surplus in goods and services account at €5bn (1.3% of GDP). Currently this does

not seem to be achievable, even taking into account the recently seen improvement in net exports.

Of course, stabilisation of net international investment

position relative to GDP requires smaller surplus – relying on

the pace of the economic growth. In the table beside we

present minimal levels of goods and services account (as %

of GDP), which allow a stabilisation of net IIP relative to GDP,

given different scenarios of (a) nominal economic growth and

(b) surplus in current transfers and capital accounts.

However, even more considerable adjustment would be

necessary to lower, not just to stabilise, the external

imbalance – e.g. to reduce net IIP to 35% of GDP in 20 years’

time, goods and services accounts should be higher by 1.0-

1.5pp than these shown in the table.

Moreover, it is worth noting that inflow of EU funds, which

currently makes up the bulk of current transfers and capital

accounts is likely to shrink in medium-term, and this will make

the reduction of external balance more difficult.

0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

2.0 2.6 2.1 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 -0.4

3.0 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0

4.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.1 -1.6

5.0 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -1.3 -1.8 -2.2

6.0 0.0 -0.5 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9 -2.4 -2.8

7.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -2.9 -3.4

8.0 -1.2 -1.7 -2.1 -2.6 -3.1 -3.5 -4.0

Sum of current transfers and capital accounts (% of GDP)

No

min

al p

ace o

f G

DP

gro

wth

(%

of

GD

P)

Goods and services balance necessary to stabilise

net IIP/GDP ratio

Estimates are based on assumption that annual net income rate of foreign

investors (relation to income balance to net IIP) will remain stable at ca. 6%,

which is an average level from last few years.

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

BZ WBK economic reports

18

Daily report Eyeopener (Polish and English version) – everyday morning information about current economic and market events, globally and in Poland. One page of text only.

Weekly economic reports (Polish and English version) – summary of week in economy and on financial markets, forecasts and expectations about the upcoming week. Separate pages dedicated to macro, FX market and interest rate market.

Monthly report MACROscope (Polish and English version) – summary of current views on the Polish economy and financial markets, includes short-term forecasts.

Rates and FX Outlook report (only English version) – detailed forecasts of market indicators – exchange rate, money market, IRS market, bond market.

The FX technical analysis (only Polish version) – technical analysis of the EURPLN usually published at the beginning of the each month and additionally updated in case of the biggest changes of market situation.

Instant comments (Polish and English version) – analysis after the releases of Polish macro data, MPC

meetings etc.

TO SUBSCRIBE: ekonomia@bzwbk.pl or http://skarb.bzwbk.pl/english/economic-analysis

Rates and FX Outlook – April 2013 MACROscope Special focus – April 2013

PLN m

Disclaimer

19

This publication has been prepared by Bank Zachodni WBK S.A. for information purposes

only. It is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument.

Information presented in the publication is not an investment advice. All reasonable care has

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