millennials inside the beltway - hickok cole · 2017-11-10 · from monthly rent for taxes and...

MILLENNIALSINSIDE THE BELTWAYOPTIMISTIC URBANISTS | ULI WASHINGTON

COPYRIGHT URBAN LAND INSTITUTE WASHINGTON | HICKOK COLE ARCHITECTS 2015

INTRODUCTION

SURVEY OVERVIEW

HOUSING

NEIGHBORHOOD AMENITIES

TRANSPORTATION

RECOMMENDATIONS

38% of DC Metro population are Millennials 25,000 Millennials moved into the District 2011-2014

14,774 units absorbed in DC metro in 2015 (5,907 historic avg)10,300 units to be absorbed annually in 2016, 2017, 2018 14,000 units to deliver in 201610,000 units to deliver in 2017


THE CASE

Pro-creative class:77% of family earnings spent locally

$55,000/year spent on children by families in top income brackets

$1 spent on children -> $2 economic impact

Creative class:No discernible relationship with improved economic health

30-34


strongest demographic indicator of economic health

families increase economic activity & create greater long-term stability for cities

CREATIVE VS PROCREATIVE

statewide


FAMILIES IN CITIES: SOCIAL BENEFITS

Parents contribute to social and civic health and stability of cities

Each additional 10 minutes of commuting time reduces civic engagement by 10%

Increased walking and activity levels decreases health risks like obesity

Compact, urban neighborhoods are more sustainable than traditional suburbs

Cities that are designed forkids are designed for all


INTRODUCTION

SURVEY OVERVIEW

HOUSING


TRANSPORTATION

RECOMMENDATIONS

77% Caucasian

ULI SURVEY RESPONDENT

53% are 30-37 62% female

DEMOGRAPHICS

1,344 total participants

11% African American

8% Hispanic

4% Other

47% are 20-29 38% male


61% single

7% part time

68% own vehicles

5% live with family

12% have kids

17% in MD

MILLENNIALS AT A GLANCE 39% married/partnered

1% stay at home

84% employed full time

4% in school

62% live in DC

21% live in VA

67% rent

28% own

24% have roommates


Compared nationally, the DC metro Millennials sample is...

Skewed female 62% DC metro VS 51% US

Are in 30-37 age range53% DC metro VS 43% US

Employed full time 84% DC metro VS 62% US

parent

STRONG INCOME LEVELS

DC metro Millennials earn more than US average

$66,636 - DC metro median income

$48,125 - National median income

DC

National

8%

29%

18%

24%

36%

27%

19%

12%

19%

8%

Inside the Beltway

National

<$35,000 $35-49,999 $50-74,999 $75-99,999 >$100,000


Inside the Beltway vs National

Of those expecting kids in 3 years:

30% definitely raise family inside Beltway 19% probably30% maybe21% no (8% DC residents)

77% living in DC and 41% in inner suburbs would stay in DC if there was greater certainty that kids would attend good public/charter school

60% not involved in neighborhood, community, religious, civil, political activities

FAMILIES & CIVIC INVOLVEMENT

12% have children. Of those, 60% have 1 child



INTRODUCTION

SURVEY OVERVIEW

HOUSING


TRANSPORTATION

RECOMMENDATIONS

RENTERS INSIDE THE BELTWAY

Respondents highly satisfied with current housing

67% currently rent; 28% own; 5% live with family

By 2018:

60% expect to still be living “inside the Beltway”

63% expect to own

37% expect to rent

38% 1 BR

21% 3+ BR

37% expect to rent

58% expect to

move outside Beltway

to afford to buy

$1,945 median rent

(in District vs $1,3907

US median)

28% 2 BR

13% Studio

46% plan to buy

house/condo

67% rent now

40% of renters in 20’s

have roommates

72% can’t afford to

live alone

60% expect to remain in

current unit for < 1 year


US 2013 American Community Survey

3+YEARS

OWNERS INSIDE THE BELTWAY

28% own

8 out of 10 owners inside the Beltway are first-time buyers

Nearly 1/2 of owners have lived in their current dwellings for less than 2 years

60% own in District 40% own in MD/VA inside Beltway

33% received gifts from parents to finance ownership

59% ownership good long-term

investment

43% high prices inside Beltway not a deterrent

70% “very satisfied” with

ownership


72% from DC

66% from MD/VA

inside Beltway

17% from MD/VA inside Beltway

23% from DC

12% from outside DC metro

11% from outside DC metro

INTRODUCTION

SURVEY OVERVIEW

HOUSING


TRANSPORTATION

RECOMMENDATIONS


40% rate non-grocery neighborhood shopping as “fair to poor”

1/5 favor shopping at small, independent stores in their neighborhood

60% live within 10-minute walk of full-service supermarket; 80% rate it good to excellent

65% rate “lots of restaurants” as a desirable neighborhood quality

SHOPPING, ENTERTAINMENT, & GROCERY

70% live within a

15-minute walk of a non-grocery

shopping area


PARKS 40%

say parks are an important asset they do not want to lose

42% At least once a week

32% Once or twice a month

17% Rarely or never

9% Less than once a month


INTRODUCTION

SURVEY OVERVIEW

HOUSING


TRANSPORTATION

RECOMMENDATIONS


10% bus only

19% of commuters

3% of commuters26% commute

5% of commuters use other

47% of commuters use public transit

65% metro access is 1 of top 3 reasons for selecting or staying in residence

50% own bikes (but only 13% use them daily)

68% own automobiles, only 26% report driving to work/school

COMMUTING 28% metro

9% metro + bus


alone by car carpool

walk or bike forms of transportation

39% frequently use taxi substitute (Uber or Lyft) late at night; after partying; to access places ill-served by public transit

14% use bike sharing systems “a lot”

5% use car sharing systems once/week (Zip Car or Car2Go)

OTHER TRANSPORTATION METHODS


INTRODUCTION

SURVEY OVERVIEW

HOUSING


TRANSPORTATION

RECOMMENDATIONS


CALL TO ACTION


LANDUSE & ZONING

AFFORDABILITY & FINANCING

TECHNOLOGY & BUSINESS

OPPORTUNITIES

PRODUCT TYPES

DAY CARE & SCHOOLS

LAND USE & ZONING

Zoning for accessory units & pop-ups

Bonus density for family-sized units

Expedited permitting for family-friendly unit mixes

Urban Family overlay around schools

Downpayment assistance for families

Tax relief for family home buyers


PRODUCT TYPES

Internal courtyard

2 + 2 + 2 units

Aggregable units

Family mixed-use

Shared amenities

Micro-condos

Compact design


Purchase Price $700,000 $800,000 $900,000 $1,000,000(Downpayment (@ 20%)) ($140,000) ($160,000) ($180,000) ($200,000)Mortgage $560,000 $640,000 $720,000 $800,000

Payment (@ 4%) $2,674 $3,055 $3,437 $3,819Taxes $450 $521 $591 $662Insurance $100 $100 $100 $100Total Monthly Payment $3,223 $3,676 $4,129 $4,582

Required Annual Income $117,212 $133,676 $150,140 $166,604Assumes 33% Of Gross

Gross Monthly Income $9,768 $11,140 $12,512 $13,884(Less 28% Withholding) ($2,735) ($3,119) ($3,503) ($3,887)Net Income $7,033 $8,021 $9,008 $9,996(Less House Payment) ($3,223) ($3,676) ($4,129) ($4,582)

Remaining Income For Expenses $3,809 $4,344 $4,880 $5,415

Required annual income based on housing prices

+ + + + +

Location of family-friendly homes sold under $825,000 in last 12 monthsSOURCE: MRIS, REDFIN


FAMILY-FRIENDLY HOMES IN N.E.

Hill East, H Street, Trinidad, Eckington, Brookland, Bloomingdale

Family-friendly rentals niche product

Balance of land cost, density, potential rents, high concentration of families, high row house pricing

3BR2BR/Den 3BR/Den2BR

Monthly Rent

Implied Price*


Implied purchase price of family friendly rental units @ $3.50psf

* Assumes deductions from monthly rent for taxes and insurance

950 SF

1,100 SF

1,250 SF

1,350 SF

Monthly Rent:

Implied Price*:

Req’d Income:

Downpayment (20%):

$3,325

$722,458

$120,909

$144,492

$3,850

$838,412

$140,000

$167,682

$4,375

$954,366

$159,091

$190,873

$4,725

$1,031,669

$171,818

$206,334

$3.50/sf+ rents in well-located DC neighborhoods

Renters in that range could buy upwards of $1,000,000 home if can afford downpayment

Highly-educated DC millennials are ridden with student loans

Savings for downpayment limited

$4,400

$4,600

$4,800

$950,000

$1,000,000

$1,050,000

$4,200 $900,000

$4,000 $850,000

$3,800 $800,000

$3,600 $750,000

$3,400 $700,000

$3,200 $650,000

$3,000 $600,000Mon

thly

Ren

t

Imp

lied

Pur

chas

e Pr

ice

DAYCARE & SCHOOLS

Incentivize day care operators

Business opportunities for childcare providers

Easy access to school information

School liaison for parents

Share facilities with community

Locate near public transportation


RECREATION

Share resources with schools, parks

Utilize City’s historic and artistic assets to expose children to educational opportunities

Child-friendly publications that alert parents to family exhibits at museums, discounts, activities


SAFETY

Messaging at child level to safe routes

Visible cameras along routes

Pre-paid transportation pass that allows kids universal access to buses, trains, taxis

Emergency children’s call boxes

Designated safe car on metro and buses


TECHNOLOGY

Uber school

List serves, message boards for parents

Nanny-share

Online deliveries for groceries

Online resources for parents “shopping” for schools - classroom photos, test scores, enrollment process

Online hub for locating tutors, activity instructors


• City Talent: Keeping Young Professionals (and their kids) in Cities, Forest City Enterprises and CEOs for Cities, 2007.

• Creative Class or Procreative Class: Implications for Local Economic Development Policy, Laura Reese, 2012.

• Downtown Families, Sarah Snider Komppa, 2013.

• Focus Group: Families in the City, ULI Washington, 2015.

• The Economic Importance of Families with Children, Mildred Warner and Rebecca Baran-Rees, 2012.

• Millennials Inside the Beltway, ULI Washington, 2015

SOURCES


millennials inside the beltway - hickok cole · 2017-11-10 · from monthly rent for taxes and...

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