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The European Commission’s Knowledge Centreon Migration and Demography (KCMD)

Migration ProfileETHIOPIA

1. Structural Migration Profile2. Flash Migration Profile (January – March 2017)

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EUR 28845 EN

This publication is a Science for Policy report by the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the European Commission’s science and knowledge service. It aims to provide evidence-based scientific support to the European policymaking process. The scientific output expressed does not imply a policy position of the European Commission. Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use that might be made of this publication.

Contact information Giuliana Urso Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography (KCMD) Address: Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi, 2749, VA 21027 Ispra, Italy E-mail: [email protected] Tel.: +39 0332 78 6073

JRC Science Hub https://ec.europa.eu/jrc

JRC 108844

EUR 28845 EN

PDF ISBN 978-92-79-74667-3 ISSN 1831-9424 doi:10.2760/936870

Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017

© European Union, 2017

Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. The reuse policy of European Commission documents is regulated by Decision 2011/833/EU (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39).

For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not under the EU copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holders.

How to cite this report: Sona Kalantaryan, Giuliana Urso, Migration Profile Ethiopia. Structural Migration Profile and Flash Migration Profile (January – March 2017), EUR 2017, doi:10.2760/936870

All images © European Union 2017

Title Migration Profile ETHIOPIA. Structural Migration Profile and Flash Migration Profile (January – March 2017)

Abstract The new generation of Migration Profiles aims at collecting knowledge on migration and development at regular, short intervals (3 months) and with a sub-na tional coverage, providing tailored monitoring and ensuring comparability across countries. It links migration, developmental and humanitarian aspects as well as analyses on the EU strategic role vis-à-vis the third country, including its political, financial and humanitarian support. This publication reproduces the Migration Profile of Ethiopia, including the Structural Migration Profile (2016) and the Flash Migration Profile for the period January - March 2017.

Acknowledgement Maps have been developed by Alfredo Alessandrini (KCMD). The Structural Migration Profile has been realized by Francesco Sermi, Sara Grubanov-Boskovic, Dario Tarchi, Giuliana Urso, with the graphical support of David e Bongiardo. The report has b een reviewed by various KCMD services, namely EEAS, DG DEVCO, DG HOME, DG ECHO. It ha s as wel l benefitted from the results of other EC projects such as the EUaidexplorer (https://euaidexplorer.ec.europa.eu/), the European Media Monitor (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/scientific-tool/europe-media-monitor-newsbrief) and the INFORM Humanitarian Crises and Disasters Risk Index (http://www.inform-index.org/).

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Contents

1. Structural Migra on Profile – end 2016 - [Historical baseline] What? Fundamental informa on on the country’s structural characteris cs, with a yearly and

historical perspec ve and with a map of cri cal areas linked with the interna onal framework (SDGs)

Why? “Must-Know” informa on for the compact plus relevant derived data (including on aid, strategic relevance for the EU) available in a single, easy to interpret infographic. A strategic overview reproducible as a common framework for any country that will ensure consistency and comparability across countries

Where? Structural Migra on Profile Infographic_____________________ p.1

2. Flash Migra on Profile – January /March 2017 – [Quarterly monitoring] What? Updated informa on on the latest developments in the country and of crucial

importance for migra on and development, summarized in few pages and with the support of visualiza on products (maps, melines…). It provides detailed informa on also at sub-na onal level as well as take-away messages

Why? To fill the knowledge gap on targeted informa on in the short-term, allowing to follow up on cri cal situa ons, progresses in interna onal rela on and migra on movements. It provides tailored and swi informa on and analysis useful for the development and monitoring of compacts

Where? Cube - Execu ve Summary______________________________ p.5 EU-Ethiopia rela ons monitoring meline _________________ 6 Map 1: Stock of refugees by region_______________________ 7 Map 2: Es mated flows of refugees by region______________ 8 Map 3: The drivers of Internal Displacement________________ 9 Flash Migra on Profile Analysis Migra on Outline________________________________ p.10 Stressors_______________________________________ 12 Regional Perspec ve______________________________

References__________________________________________

14 16

ETHIOPIA

DEMOGRAPHY

TOTAL POPULATION

POPULATION GROWTH (%)

MEDIAN AGE

CHILDRENPER WOMAN

2016 2050(estimates)

102.4 M 190.9 M

2.5 1.3

18.6(2015)

28.8

4.0(2015)

2.2

HEAD OF STATEMr. Mulatu Teshome

HEAD OF GOVERNMENTMr. Hailemariam Desalegn

NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIESDjibouti; Eritrea; Kenya; Somalia; South Sudan; Sudan

DENSITY101.9 / Km2

RURAL POPULATION80.1%

HDI (2015)174th / 188

INCOME LEVEL GROUP Low income

RELIGIONSEthiopian Orthodox 43.5%, Muslim 33.9%, Protestant 18.5%, traditional 2.7%, Catholic 0.7%, other 0.6%

LANGUAGESOromo 33.8%, Amharic (official national language) 29.3%, Somali 6.2%, Tigrigna 5.9%, other 24.8%

ETHNIC GROUPSOromo 34.4%, Amhara (Amara) 27%, Somali (Somalie) 6.2%, other 32.4%

sour

ces:

Cou

ntry

’s G

over

nmen

t, CI

A Fa

ctbo

ok, W

orld

Ban

k, U

ND

P, U

ND

ESA

MIGRATION OUTLINE

STRATEGIC RELEVANCE OF MIGRATIONFOR ETHIOPIA AND FOR THE EU (stock - country of origin)

sour

ces:

UN

DES

A, U

NH

CR

MIGRANTS

9 691116 615(2015)

753 492(2015)

0.8%OUT OF ETHIOPIAN

POPULATION


MIGRANTS ARE IN EU


REFUGEES ARE IN EU

83 8940.1%

OUT OF ETHIOPIANPOPULATION

REFUGEES

© European Union, 2017

MP version 3.This Structural Migration Profile aims at providing an overview on migration and development in a given country. Kindly note that data refer to the end of the year and are collected from different sources and methodologies. For more details please refer to the Technical Note.

Extraction Date:March 2017

European CommissionKnowledge Centre on Migration and Demography (KCMD)

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mi-gration-and-demography

email: [email protected]

doi:10.2760/022983ISBN 978-92-79-74729-8

MIG

RATI

ON

PRO

FILE

KCMD

ETHIOPIA2016

Addis AbabaAddis Ababa

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Structural Migration Profile

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1

MIGRATION OUTLINE / ETHIOPIAAS

YLU

M S

EEKE

RS

RETU

RN R

ATE

TOTAL RECOGNITION RATE

THE VIEW FROM

EU

IRRE

GU

LAR

CRO

SSIN

GS

18.5% (2013)

13.1% (2014)

9.8% (2015) 9.8% (2016)

2016201520142013

583 591

2 735

3 660

44.1%46.4%43.4%37.5%

6 065(first time applications)

-3.5%+4.2%

+3%

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

35000

2016201520142013

31 201

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2016201520142013

EDUCATION

REFUGEE+SUBSIDIARY PROTECTION

OTHER17%

42%

15%

FAMILYREUNIFICATION

REAS

ON

S

MIG

RA

NTS

22%

REMUNERATEDACTIVITIES

4%28%

25%

19%

66%

7%

6%

sour

ces:

UN

DES

A, U

NH

CR, I

DM

Cso

urce

s: E

uros

tat,

Fron

tex

THE VIEW FROM

ETHIOPIA

78 017ASYLUMSEEKERS

REFUGEES

RETURNEDREFUGEES

MIGRANTS

IDPs

753 492(2015)

1.1 M(2015)

791 616

0

1 948

257 563

83 894SSD

SOMERI

SOMSSD

ERI ISRSAU

USA

KENZAF

USA

(stock of migrants and refugees)

(valid residence permits - TCN)

As resident permit holders, more than 40% of Ethiopians are in the EU for family reunification reasons. Asylum total recognition rates are high at 44.1%.Low return rate.

Ethiopia is a host country for nearly 800 000 refugees (mainly from South Sudan, Somalia and Eritrea).

ETHIOPIANREFUGEES

ETHIOPIANMIGRANTS

ASYLUMSEEKERS

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2

CRITICAL THRESHOLDSTREND IN TIME(4 YEAR PERIOD)

CRITICAL VALUE(COMPARED TO SAME INCOME LEVEL GROUP COUNTRIES)

INCREASESTABLEDECREASE

Yearly conflict events have risen in the last year (from around 400 to 1 250 in 2016). More than 2/3 of urban popula-tion live in slum, although only 1 out of 5 live in urban areas.

sour

ces:

OCH

A, O

ECD

, JRC

, FAO

, ILO

, UN

ESCO

, WH

O, A

CLED

, Wor

ld B

ank,

IEPAREAS INDICATORS EU INSTITUTIONS TOTAL

DISBURSED AID (€ MIL.)

SOCI

ALEC

ONO

MIC

ENVI

RONM

ENTA

LPO

LITI

CAL

ETHIOPIA / STRESSORS

TOTA

L AI

D 2

015

N/A2016201520142013

EDUCATIONGross enrolment, primary =Gross enrolment, tertiary =Adult literacy rate =

HEALTHUnder-5 mortality rate (per 1000) = Health expenditure per capita = General Government health expenditure (% total health exp) =

URBANIZATIONUrban pop under nat poverty line = Living in slum out of urban pop = Rural pop under nat poverty line =

102.1% (2015)8.1% (2014)

49.0% (2015)

59.2 (2015)$ 26.65 (2014)

59% (2014)

25.7% (2010)73.9% (2014)30.4% (2010)

POVERTYIncome held by lowest 20% =Under poverty line $1.90 p.day =Prevalence of undernourishment =

UNEMPLOYMENTTotal UNEMPL =Male UNEMPL =Youth male UNEMPL =

8.0% (2010)33.5% (2010)

32% (2015)

5.7%3.1%4.9%

DEGRADATIONNatural resources depletion (% GNI)=INFORM risk on natural hazards =

0.1 (2015)4.3 /10 scale

SECURITYYearly conflict events =Political stability =Global Peace Index =

GOVERNANCEGovernment effectiveness =Control of corruption =

1 259-1.5 (2015)

118/163 rank

-0.6 (2015)-0.4 (2015)

23.7%

1.8% OTHER

41.5%

32.1%

1.0%

40.9 38.5

49.4

N/A2016201520142013

7.8

115.3

64.0

N/A2016201520142013

46.7

56.5

36.5

N/A2016201520142013

1.61.88.3

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3

MIGRATION OUTLINE / TUNISIA

sour

ces:

UN

DES

A, U

NH

CRDESTINATIONS(% of total )

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE / ETHIOPIA

INFORM HUMANITARIAN CRISESAND DISASTERS RISK INDEX

sour

ces:

JRC

, Et

al.

Africa

EU

Other

MIGRANTSIDPs &

REFUGEES

Ethiopia (IDPs)

Natural Risk Human Risk

Socio-Economic Risk Vulnerable Groups Risk

Institutional Risk Infrastructure Risk

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

Djibouti Eritrea Kenya South Sudan SudanSomaliaEthiopia

ETH

IOPI

A vs

. NEI

GH

BOU

RIN

G C

OU

NTR

IES

MIGRATION OUTLINE / ETHIOPIA

STRATEGIC RELEVANCE OF FINANCIAL INFLOWS FOR ETHIOPIA AND FOR THE EU

sour

ces:

OEC

D, O

CHA,

Wor

ld B

ank,

UN

CTAD

Remittances are very low as a share of GDP (0.9%).

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

2016201520142013

0.9

% G

DP

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

2016201520142013

3 032

Remittances received (€ MIL.)

FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (€ MIL.)

0

600

1200

1800

2400

3000

2016201520142013N/A154.1

EU institutions total disbursed aid (€ MIL.)(humanitarian + oda)

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4

CUT, FOLD, PASTEFlash Migration ProfileCube - Executive Summary

IMP

OR

TAN

CE

FOR

EU

• A c

ruci

al p

artn

er fo

r the

EU

in u

phol

ding

re

gion

al p

eace

and

sec

urity

in th

e re

gion

• Mai

ntai

ns it

s op

en d

oor p

olic

y ho

stin

g on

e of

th

e la

rges

t ref

ugee

com

mun

ity in

Afr

ica

• The

larg

est b

enef

icia

ry o

f the

EU

TF's

Horn

of

Afric

a w

indo

w

• The

EC

has

disb

urse

d a

prov

isio

nal a

mou

nt

of m

ore

than

€72

mill

ion

(Jan

- Mar

ch 2

017)

• A E

urop

ean

Mig

ratio

n Li

aiso

n O

ffic

er h

as

been

dep

loye

d in

Eth

iopi

a in

Mar

ch 2

017

• Eth

iopi

a ch

airs

the

Khar

toum

pro

cess

, a

regi

onal

dia

logu

e w

ith c

ount

ries

of th

e Ho

rn o

f Af

rica

on m

igra

tion

IMPA

CT

• 25

refu

gee

cam

ps in

5 re

gion

s an

d in

the

ca

pita

l (M

arch

)• W

orld

Foo

d Pr

ogra

m re

port

ed a

cute

m

alnu

triti

on a

nd a

naem

ia (m

ore

than

40%

) in

man

y re

fuge

e ca

mps

• Neg

ativ

e im

pact

on

vege

tatio

n (d

efor

est-

atio

n) a

roun

d ca

mps

as

woo

d is

use

d as

th

e m

ain

fuel

CU

RR

ENT

SITU

ATIO

N

• Eth

iopi

a ho

sts

830

000

refu

gees

from

Su

dan,

Sou

th S

ouda

n, S

omal

ia, E

ritre

a an

d Ye

men

(Mar

ch)

• Dep

orta

tion

of E

thio

pian

s 12

0 pe

rson

s fr

om

Sout

h Af

rica

reac

hed

120

per w

eek

(hal

f of

120

000

Ethi

opia

ns li

ving

in S

outh

Afr

ica

ente

red

the

coun

try il

lega

lly)

•“A N

atio

n W

ithou

t Vio

latio

ns” c

ampa

ign

anno

unce

d by

Sau

di A

rabi

a to

giv

e re

side

ncy

and

labo

r law

vio

lato

rs 9

0 da

ys to

leav

e th

e co

untry

with

out p

enal

ties

affe

ctin

g ap

prox

. 70

0 00

0 irr

egul

ar m

igra

nts

from

Eth

iopi

a

Ethi

opia

- M

P Fl

ash,

Jan

uary

/Mar

ch 2

017

STR

ESSO

RS

• Sta

te o

f Em

erge

ncy

in O

rom

ia re

gion

has

be

en e

xten

ded

for 4

mon

ths

from

30/

03/1

7• U

nsta

ble

situ

atio

n on

bor

ders

, suc

h as

an

atta

ck o

n th

e Gr

and

Ethi

opia

n Re

nais

sanc

e D

am; i

nten

sifie

d ac

tivity

of A

l Sha

baab

Som

ali

Isla

mis

t mov

emen

t and

sep

arat

ist

Oga

den

Nat

iona

l Lib

erat

ion

Fron

t in

the

Jara

r reg

ion;

28

kill

ed, 4

3 ch

ildre

n ki

dnap

ed b

y So

uth

Suda

nese

arm

ed g

roup

s• 5

.6 m

illio

n ar

e fo

od in

secu

re d

ue to

dro

ught

s• 3

80 0

00 a

gro-

past

oral

hou

seho

lds

at a

hig

h ris

k of

sta

rvin

g du

e to

low

live

stoc

k pr

ices

al

ong

with

incr

ease

d ce

real

pric

es

• A s

mal

l num

ber o

f wel

l-doc

umen

ted

retu

rn

case

s w

ere

subm

itted

to th

e Et

hiop

ian

auth

oriti

es a

s a

pilo

t to

test

coo

pera

tion

on

mig

ratio

n an

d as

a b

luep

rint f

or fa

ster

retu

rns

to

be p

erfo

rmed

in th

e fu

ture

• Nai

robi

Dec

lara

tion

on S

omal

i Ref

ugee

s (2

5 M

arch

201

7): E

thio

pia

pled

ged

to e

xpan

d its

O

ut-o

f-Ca

mp

Polic

y to

all

refu

gees

, pro

vide

wor

k pe

rmits

to th

ose

with

per

man

ent r

esid

ence

ID

• UN

HCR

has

incr

ease

d its

fund

ing

requ

irem

ents

to

add

ress

the

need

s of

the

disp

lace

d in

Afri

ca;

up to

€14

6 m

illion

requ

ired

for E

thio

pia

• Em

erge

ncy

seed

dist

ribut

ion

by F

AO

AC

TIO

NS

TAK

EN S

O F

AR

PO

TEN

TIA

L EV

OLU

TIO

N

Ethi

opia

- M

P Fl

ash,

Jan

uary

/Mar

ch 2

017

• UN

HCR

and

ARR

A ar

e id

entif

ying

pos

sibl

e si

tes

for n

ew c

amps

and

dev

elop

ing

a Co

ntin

genc

y Pl

an to

resp

ond

to f

utur

e flo

ws

• Eth

iopi

a w

ill c

oope

rate

with

the

Regi

onal

O

pera

tiona

l Cen

tre

to f

ight

traf

ficki

ng a

nd

smug

glin

g •

Ethi

opia

n po

pula

tion

will

incr

ease

by

87%

re

achi

ng 1

90.9

mill

ion

by 2

050

(UN

PD

proj

ectio

ns)

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5

JAN FEB MAR

29

31

3

22

2

8

16

27

17

EU - ETHIOPIA RELATIONS MONITORING 2017

European Commissioner for Interna-tional Cooperation"Ethiopia has become a place of refuge for hundreds of thousands of people fleeing problems at home. We commend its open door policy despite the strains placed on Ethiopian hosting communities. The country also faces the challenge of climate change. Many millions of Ethiopians are suffering due to the current droughts and are in urgent need of food assistance. These are immense challenges that no community and no country can, or should, face alone.[…]”

UK Minister for Department for International Development “If the jobs aren’t there, young Africans who are educated will want to migrate. They will want to have better prospects and futures elsewhere. …So we need to support these [countries] in Africa to industrialise. If you think about the long-term benefit, many of the countries we are working with right now will become our trade partners as well.” International Development Priti Patel met Ethiopian government officials

Chancellor of Germany A. Merkel said the bloc should consider supporting countries like Ethiopia “to set up humane possibilities for giving people shelter,” so that those fleeing countries like Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan did not make their way farther north, or onward to Europe.

Head of EU Delegation in Ethiopia "The strategic approach of Regional Development and Protection Programme Ethiopia is to promote integrated solutions, which will benefit both refugees and host communities to ensure a more coordinated and sustainable use of funding and also to create greater self-reliance, stimulate socio-economic development and reduce tensions between refugees and host communities related for instance to scarcity of resources" .

Third Progress Report on the Partnership Framework on Migration Ethiopia will actively cooperate with the EU Trust Fund supported Regional Operational Centre to fight against trafficking and smuggling. It will also benefit from an additional Facility to support Sustainable and Dignified returns and reintegration and assist stranded migrants.

Italian Ambassador in Ethiopia “As long as we create better investment and job opportunity, we also might reduce the pressure of irregular migration” .Italy has extended € 500 000 as a contribution to the multi-donor initiative for private sector development in Ethiopia.

UK Foreign SecretaryDuring his visit to Ethiopia met with Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and Foreign Minister Workneh and discussed regional security and expanding cooperation in areas such as migration, development, investment and trade.

HRVPF. Mogherini met Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and opposition members.F. Mogherini outlined the broad areas of cooperation, from economic investments to the common work better manage migration and support the efforts of Ethiopia as a major host of refugees.

Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management''The European Union is responding immediately to the needs arising from the severe famine in South Sudan and the dire droughts in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya. […].'' The EC announced additional EU support of € 165 million, of which € 65 million to respond to the serious droughts in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya.

Finland Minister for Foreign Trade and Development''Finland will channel € 755 000 to Ethiopia to help those in need of emergency assistance”.

Head of Ethiopia's National Disaster Risk Management Commission “Last year, (we were)... able to mount the biggest drought response operation in global history[…] Today we need that partnership once again as we face a new drought”

Ethiopian Prime Minister“Ethiopia will continue its efforts towards ensuring peace and security in the region”

ARRA on “Out-of-Camp” policy “[…]The out-of-camp policy has enabled refugees who need special medical attention and refugees with serious protection concerns” ARRA Deputy Director“We believe that giving only food ration is not enough, so we have to find alternative solutions, some sort of durable solutions so that the refugees can start to make their living by their own.”

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6

Knowledge Centre on Migra on and Demography – Migra on Profiles 7

January - March 2017 Ethiopia - Flash Migra on Profile

Map

1: S

tock

of r

efug

ees b

y re

gion

Ethi

opia

hos

ts o

ne o

f the

larg

est r

efug

ee p

opul

aon

in A

fric

a, m

ainl

y fr

om th

e ne

ighb

ourin

g co

untr

ies (

Sout

h Su

dan,

Som

alia

and

Erit

rea)

. So

uth

Suda

nese

are

mai

nly

host

ed in

Gam

bela

, Som

alia

n in

Som

ali,

Eritr

eans

in T

igra

y an

d Af

ar, S

udan

ese

in B

enes

hang

ul G

umu.

The

m

ost a

ffect

ed re

gion

s are

Som

ali (

245,

923)

and

Gam

bela

(353

,876

). Ga

mbe

la h

osts

a n

umbe

r of r

efug

ees c

ompa

rabl

e to

its n

aon

al

popu

laon



M

ap 2

: Es

mat

ed fl

ows o

f ref

ugee

s by

regi

on

The

esm

ated

inflo

w o

f ref

ugee

s was

inte

nse

from

Sou

th S

udan

(app

rox

27 0

00) i

ncre

asin

g th

e st

ock

of S

outh

Sud

anes

e by

8.1

%. T

he

esm

ated

flow

of S

omal

ians

(5. 0

00) a

nd E

ritre

ans (

6 00

0) w

as m

ore

mod

est.

The

maj

ority

of a

rriv

als w

ere

to G

ambe

la (2

5,03

3), T

igra

y (8

,054

) and

Som

ali (

4,68

9) re

gion

s acc

oun

ng fo

r 98,

3% o

f tot

al inflo

w. T

he h

igh

num

ber o

f eve

nts a

nd fa

tali

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1. High level mee ngs. A series of diploma c missions both at EU and Member State levels took place from January to March (see Timeline). Economic development and poli cal stability in the region have been iden fied as key factors for managing migra on [2]. 2. Financial inflows. Ethiopia con nued to be a crucial partner for the EU in upholding regional peace and security in the region. To support this role the Commission provides substan al support to resilience, refugees and job crea on implemented through the EU Emergency Trust Fund (EUR 119.5 million) [3]. EU's main purpose of financial aid is to provide support for socio-economic development, democracy and human rights [4]. In par cular, the 11th EDF na onal envelope of €745 M for Ethiopia is the biggest for the ACP region and it focuses on a variety of development issues, namely food security and sustainable agriculture, transport / phasing out to energy, and health. During the first quarter of 2017, the EC (DEVCO and ECHO) has disbursed a provisional amount of more than EUR 72 million.1 In 2016, according to the es mates provided by the World Bank, Ethiopian diaspora sent home USD 641.9 million (around EUR 609 million) remi ances, which cons tutes less than 1 percent of GDP [5]. 3. Impact on EU. According to the informa on provided by Eurostat from the beginning of 2017, 925 Ethiopians asked for asylum in EU MSs, which demonstrates an increase of the flow by 11% compared with the same period in 2016 [6]. Most of the applica ons were lodged in Germany (42%) and France (18%). Two thirds of the flow are young men (18-34). Of 699 arrivals to northern Aegean islands (in January 2017) 12 were from Ethiopians [7]. 4. Migra on management. Ethiopia maintains its open door policy and hosts one of the largest refugee community in Africa [3]. According to the third Progress Report on the Partnership Framework on Migra on, as chair of the Khartum Process, Ethiopia provided a construc ve contribu on to Vale a Senior Official’s mee ng [8]. Ahead of EU leaders mee ng in Malta, Italy announced se ng up a fund to help African countries to control their external borders; Ethiopia is considered as a poten al partner in this project [9]. Moreover, Ethiopia is comple ng a pilot project on return, which will serve as a model in the future [8]. The country will also benefit from a new facility to support sustainable and dignified return and reintegra on. A Strategic Engagement sectoral dialogue on migra on is expected to start soon. The country will cooperate with the Regional Opera onal Centre to fight against trafficking and smuggling [10]. Following an agreement reached between the Italian government, the Italian Bishops Conference (CEI) and the Sant'Egidio Community, Italy is going to open a new humanitarian corridor with Ethiopia to rese le 500 individuals from refugee camps (for the most part Eritreans, Somalis and South Sudanese)[11].

1. Demographic projec ons. Ethiopia is among the nine countries which are expected to be responsible for much of the overall increase of world popula on between now and 2050. According to UNPD projec ons, by the middle of the 21st century, Ethiopian popula on will increase by 87% reaching 190 869 million. Despite the expected drop in fer lity rate, popula on growth will be mainly driven by posi ve dynamics of infant mortality and life expectancy [12].

1. Refugees in Ethiopia. Ethiopia is one the largest receiving countries in Africa for refugees mostly coming from Sudan, South Soudan, Somalia, Eritrea and Yemen[13]. As of 31 March 2017 the country hosts

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829 925 refugees in 25 refugee camps in 5 regions and in the capital [14]. The es mated increase of Eritrean refugees in the country for the first quarter of 2017 was 6 192 (see map 2). The flow was more intense during January and February, 150-200 Eritrean refugees crossed the Ethiopian border daily (39% were minors, 14% of whom unaccompanied or separated). Responding to Administra on for Refugee and Returnee Affairs (ARRA)’s urgent request, IOM began transpor ng refugees from the border to Endabaguna recep on centre (20km from the border) and further to camps in Tigray [15]. Approximately 70 people per day were arriving from Somali, mainly from Bay region, (5 118 from the first three months of 20172). Most of them are relocated to Bokolmanyo, Buramino, Hilaweyn, Kobe and Melkadida refugee camps (88 % are women and children) [18]. According to UNHCR, the number of South Sudanese refugees crossing daily the Ethiopian border (mostly through Pagak town) increased from 103 (in January) to over 600 (in March). They are coming mainly from Upper Nile State (Nasir, Longechuk or Mathiang, Ulang and Maiwut Coun es) and Jonglie State (Uror, Akobo and Ayod Coun es) driven by conflict and food insecurity. Most of them are reallocated to Nguenyyiel – a refugee camp in Gambela opened in October 2017, where 87% are women and children, of which many unaccompanied or separated. The observed rate of arrivals is the highest for the recent years[19]. Taking into account the intensified flows, UNHCR and ARRA were reviewing the capacity of Nguenyiel camp, iden fying possible sites for new camps, considering the possibility of realloca ons to Benishangul- Gumuz Region and developing a Con ngency Plan to respond to future flows [20] (see map 1). 2. Migra on Policies. A recent report by Overseas Development Ins tute indicates that although Ethiopia provides safe shelter to refugees from neighbourhood countries, the poten al impact is being undermined by the fact that refugees living in Ethiopia are denied the right to work [21] [22]. Ethiopian government is commi ed to further improve the level of protec on and assistance provided to refugees and encourages the interna onal community to step up its support to communi es hos ng them. The Government introduced an “out-of-camp policy” and granted ample opportuni es for many refugees especially those in need of special medical a en on or with serious protec on concerns [13]. Deputy Director of ARRA Zeynu Jemal stated that ARRA is looking for durable solu ons beyond distribu ng food ra ons that can lead refugees to self-reliance [23]. On March 17, Afar inhabitants in Gobaad region (As Eyla village) demonstrated against a project which would enable Somali/Issa IDPs to take up residence in Bakare. Earlier, the tradi onal chief of a village in the Gobaad region, expressed his concerns regarding the project to the government, which however was le without response (see map 3) [24]. 3.Irregular migra on. Irregular migrants leaving from Ethiopia use Djibou , Somaliland and Sudan as their transit routes. Amhara, Oromia, Tigray and Southern Na ons, Na onali es and People's states are the regions where a large part of irregular migrants come from. Metema and Humeral transit routes are used by those heading to Sudan; Kenya, Tanzania and Malawi are used to reach Egypt, Israel and Libya and Djibou and Somaliland are used by those leaving for Saudi Arabia [25]. While more than 1 000 undocumented Ethiopians have already been deported from South Africa during the 6 preceding months, recently the deporta on rate increased reaching 120 per week (half of 120 000 Ethiopians living in South Africa entered the country illegally) [26]. According to IOM every month up to 12 000 migrants are arriving onto the shores of the Gulf of Aden with the hope of making their way to Saudi Arabia. Enforced returns have also occurred from Saudi Arabia, especially a er the country has ghtened rules on irregular migra on in late March this year. “A Na on Without Viola ons” campaign was announced by the Saudi Arabia government with the aim to give residency and labor law violators 90 days to leave

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the country without penal es. This process became effec ve as of March 29, and would affect approximately 700.00 Ethiopian irregular migrants [27]. Out of 105 971 (as of mid-November 2016) migrants, asylum-seekers and refugees who had arrived in Yemen from the Horn of Africa, 88 667 were Ethiopians and 17 293 Somalians[28]. European Parliament members expressed their concern regarding 65 asylum seekers (mainly Ethiopians) who were arrested, lashed, and deported (40) from Khartoum a er a peaceful protest over a significant rise in visa fees [29]. 4. Assistance to refugees. World Food Program reported acute malnutri on and anaemia (more than 40%) in many refugee camps in Ethiopia [30] [39]. A new project3 funded by the WB aims at improving the living condi ons of refugees in five refugee hos ng Ethiopian states[31]. UNICEF Ethiopia asked for EUR 105 million for its Humanitarian Appeal for children in 2017, out of which 16.4 million is planned to be used to provide assistance for refugees [32].

1. Opposi on/Oromia. UN Secretary General men oned the pivotal role Ethiopia plays in ensuring peace and security in the region calling it “exemplary”[33]. However, it is an origin country for poli cal refugees too. Amnesty Interna onal invited the new Chairperson of African Union to priori se the issues of human rights as in the past pro-democra c demonstra on and ac vists were oppressed by security services in several member states including Ethiopia [34]. The reason was the intolerance the government demonstrates towards the poli cal opposi on in Oromia region where excessive and lethal forces were used against protesters [35]. While ini ally the demonstrators were protes ng against the capital’s development scheme that could poten ally force farmers off their lands, later the protests expanded into demonstra ons against poli cal restric ons, calls for human rights, democracy, and jus ce, spreading across the country[36]. On March 3, Ethiopian opposi on leader Merera Gudinat (the Oromo Federalist Congress from the Oromia region) pleaded not guilty in court. He was arrested in November 2016, accused of backing a terrorist group [37]. Poli cal and ethnic tensions and security problems have constantly increased since November 2015, in Oromia and, since July 2016, in the Amhara region. A State of Emergency (SoE), ini ally announced on 9 October 2016 for an ini al dura on of 6 months has been extended a further 4 months on 30/03/17. The implementa on direc ve outlined measures restric ng freedom of expression, assembly, and movement, right to protest or strike. Officially, 26.000 people have been detained under the SoE, of whom most have reportedly been released a er up to 3 months in "re-educa on camps"[38]. 2. Unrest at borders. On March 1 the government announced that an a ack on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam close to the border with Sudan and Eritrea had been stopped. According to the UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS) the security situa on is "sensi ve and unpredictable" in Somali Na onal Regional State (SNRS) due to intensified ac vity of the Somali Islamist movement Al Shabaab; there have been deadly clashes between members of the Somali and Oromo communi es. [39]. Separa sts from Ogaden Na onal Libera on Front (ONLF) in the Jarar region were ac ve too. In Gambela region the security situa on has worsened due to South Sudanese armed groups composed of more than 1 000 Murle bandits who crossed the border, killing 28 persons and fleeing with 43 children. Later the Ethiopian army freed 6 kidnapped kids [40]. Similar a acks a year ago in the province's Jikawo and Lare areas resulted in more than 200 dead and 160 kidnapped children out of which only 100 were returned [41].

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1. Youth unemployment ini a ves. One of the reasons why Ethiopian youth is looking for employment opportuni es elsewhere is unemployment, recently tackled by various ini a ves. The first one concerns the agriculture sector and aims at crea ng coopera ve farming (Coop) through grouping adjacent individual areas and transi ng into agricultural mechaniza on. Coops are supposed to involve young workers including high school and college graduates, who besides being remunerated will feel empowered due to their contribu on to the change in the farming industry. The success of the project is condi onal on the willingness of individual farmers to par cipate in the ini a ve [42]. The second ini a ve aims at addressing two main challenges contribu ng to youth unemployment in urban areas: (i) labour market inefficiency - inability of the labour market to absorb the excess supply of young individuals and (ii) lack of proper mechanisms enabling matching jobs with the right workers. It implies crea ng unemployment insurance unions and job centres that can favour youth training and facilitate job matching [40]. 2. Aid support. The UK has increased its support to Ethiopia by an extra EUR 13.6 (£11.5) million, which will be used to provide around 800 000 people with lifesaving clean water, basic food, emergency nutri on to malnourished children (25 000),vaccina on and treatment to ca le (600 000). Finland will provide EUR 755 000 aid to help people in need of emergency assistance [43]. The Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and the European Investment Bank (EIB) have signed their fi h coopera on agreement for providing technical assistance to microfinance in ACP countries including Ethiopia on 23 January 2017. The agreement envisages a EUR 3.6 million envelope for the next three years targe ng regions affected by migra on through projects suppor ng young people, developing access to educa on, micro and small enterprise projects [44]. Italy donated EUR 500 000 to the mul -donor ini a ve for private sector development in Ethiopia[45]. The European Union (EU) and the Netherlands, in coopera on with Ethiopia and UN partners and implemen ng consor a have launched a EUR 30 million program to address protec on and development challenges of both refugees and host communi es in the country. The Regional Development and Protec on Programme in Ethiopia focuses on Eritrean and Somali refugees and their host communi es in Tigray, Afar, and Somali Regional States [46]. The Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI) men ons that thanks to UK government’s innova ve work in Ethiopia 30 000 jobs were created for refugees [47]. While OCHA will reduce its spending by at least EUR 18.5 million (10 %), which will affects it ac vi es in several countries including Ethiopia, some private donors are stepping in[48]. H&M donated approx. EUR 3 million collected during the Christmas period in its 4000 stores to support UNHCR work with refugee kids by providing school supplies worldwide including Ethiopia [49]. Similarly, IKEA started a three-year ini a ve that aims at increasing awareness of children’s rights to play [50].

1. Drought. Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa in general are experiencing a severe drought. The prognoses are not op mis c as forecasts suggest scarce rainfall, which implies a sharp decline in harvests and livestock produc vity [51]. While El Nino affected northern and western Ethiopia, a new drought is threatening southern and South-eastern pastoral areas: Oromia, Somali and Southern Na ons, Na onali es and Peoples' Region (SNNP) [52]. It is es mated that if only one quarter of expected rainfall is received, this puts 5.6 million people of Southern and South-Eastern regions of Ethiopia (but also 6.4 million in neighbouring Somali and Kenya) in need of food assistance as the droughts are expected to con nue having nega ve effect on livelihood, households assets, food security (low cereal and seed

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stock, low milk and meat produc on) [51][53]. According to informa on provided by FAO one-quarter of all districts in Ethiopia are officially classified as facing a food security and nutri on crisis: 435 000 children are suffering severe acute malnutri on; 1.7 million children, pregnant and lacta ng women are experiencing moderate acute malnutri on [54]. The screening conducted by MSF indicates that the malnutri on rate among children under 5 reached 77 % (5 mes higher than the WHO emergency threshold of 15 %)[55]. In the neighbouring Somali region the lack of food due to drought is further aggravated by the ac ons of Islamist groups (Al Shabaab) who are taxing the popula on, seizing their food and animals. This makes the popula on cross the Ethiopian border and head towards Dollo Ado camps o en travelling 20 days on foot (on average 3000 individuals per month). According to a FAO report herders are forced to sell animals due to the shortages of pasture and water causing livestock deaths and reduced body mass [54]. This is expected to have nega ve impact for the coming years as for Ethiopian households - restocking a er the loss of half of ca le takes four years in the absence of adverse condi ons [52]. The Deputy Prime Minister men oned that Ethiopia has managed to save lives of more than 10 million ci zens due to efforts the government makes to respond to the drought, thanks to a sustainable green economy program [56].

1. Sudan. IOM is urging countries of the Horn of Africa to collaborate and develop a policy framework with integrated solu ons capable to respond to irregular migra on in the region [25]. Sudan is a source and transit country for migrants (Eritreans and Ethiopians and Somalians) heading towards Europe. The government put efforts to prevent irregular movements by delivering iden fica on documents to undocumented foreigners to monitor their movement in the country [57]. Sudan’s Rapid Support Force has prevented an opera on to smuggle 64 illegal migrants (including some Ethiopians) who intended to cross the desert to Libya. In January RSF claimed that it had handed over 1 500 alleged illegal migrants to the interior ministry since July 20164 [58]. The sum paid to the traffickers could reach EUR 3 700 (4000 USD) per person [59]. In addi on, during the mee ng that took place in March in Khartoum the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sudan and the Ethiopian Ambassador to Sudan discussed consular and migra on related ques ons as well as reviewed means to boost coopera on in the field of border management [60]. 2. Nairobi Declara on. During the Special summit on refugees of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) (March 24-25), the leaders of East African countries pledged to facilitate the free movement of Somali refugees in their countries, calling for alterna ves to camps for the refugees [61] and allowing refugees to work [62]. The Declara on on Durable Solu ons for Somali Refugees and Reintegra on of Returnees in Somalia complemented by an Ac on Plan is an important step in the field of migra on related regional coopera on [63].

1. 1. Poli cal tensions around dam on the Nile River. Egypt strongly opposes the Ethiopian Grand Renaissance Dam (the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa, $4.7 billion) due to the reduc on of water flowing to Egypt that it implies [64]. There were reports regarding an agreement between South Sudan and Egypt to arm Ethiopian opposi on to sabotage the construc on of the dam in Ethiopia, however South

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Sudan’s Ambassador stated that his country wants good rela on with both countries [65]. The issue of Nile waters was also discussed between the Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemeriam and Ugandan president Museveni during the visit of the former to Uganda in March. President Museveni called for fair use of Nile waters and invited Egypt to sign the Nile Basin Co-opera ve Framework Agreement of 2011 [64]. 2. Humanitarian response. During the Summit of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance Ethiopia was honoured along with other seven African countries for their leadership in the fight against malaria. It was men oned that the significant reduc on (40%) of disease incidence was achieved with “poli cal commitment, adequate financing and implementa on of technically sound and evidence-based vector control and case management interven ons” [66]. UNHCR has increased its funding requirements to address the needs of the displaced in Africa; it is expected that the planned assisted popula on by the end of 2017 is 70% higher than it was previously iden fied cons tu ng of 3 026 300 individuals. The revised UNHCR funding requirement for Ethiopia is EUR 146 million[67]. 3. Green Polices. During the high level event on the humanitarian situa on in Ethiopia, held at the UN Economic Commission for Africa on the margins of the 28th Summit of the African Union on Demographic Dividend, Deputy Prime Minister of Ethiopia Demeke Mekonnen commi ed to work with its neighbours to search for longer-term responses to the recurrent challenges of drought in the region [68]. Droughts throughout East Africa led to an increase in prices for cereals (in some regions prices doubled) and to a decrease in prices for animals placing a par cularly heavy burden on households in pastoral regions [69]. On 22 February 2017, Ethiopia, Djibou , Kenya and Somalia signed the Mogadishu Declara on on Regional Coopera on on the Current Drought calling for “interna onal collabora on and regional partnership between governments, civil society, aid organiza ons, business and interna onal donors” [70]. In February 2017, a UN agency announced that a million trees are to be planted in Ethiopia to fight deforesta on around refugee camps hos ng South Sudanese refugees. The ac on aims at mi ga ng the nega ve impact on the environment as hundreds of thousands refugees almost en rely rely on wood for fuel [71]. In March 2017, IOM organized a training for 150 South Sudanese refugee households to inform refugees and host communi es in Gambela on the impacts of deforesta on and the need to replenish vegeta on. The refugees were provided with seedlings of trees to help revive and maintain the forest and local vegeta on cover [72]. 4. Regional coopera on. Mekelle, the capital of Tigray region, hosted the 18th session of the conference on development of the joint Sudanese-Ethiopian borders on February 16. The session discussed issues pertaining to farming in the joint border areas, trade and smuggling. The governor of Gadaref State (Sudan) stated that the Sudanese delega on would seek to retrieve the agricultural lands confiscated by Ethiopian farmers, but also to enhance trade exchanges par cularly a er establishing the free-trade zone at the Al-Galabat border area [73]. Djibou an and Ethiopian intelligence services are coopera ng to prevent the movement of Al-Qaeda and other militant groups that aim at destabilizing Ethiopia as well as fight Al-Shabaab and to build up the capacity of Somalia's army [74]. Ethiopian Foreign Minister Dr. Workneh Gebeyheyu and President Uhuru Kenya a of Kenya discussed the implementa on of bilateral trade, investment, effec ve implementa on of transport and transit network project, integrated border development programs, regional peace and security (in South Sudan and possibili es of working with the new government in Somalia) as well as coopera on on border controls between the two countries[75].

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European Union, SWD(2017) 163 final, May 2017. [4] European Commission / Government of Republi of Ethiopia, ‘Na onal Indica ve Programme for Ethiopia 2014

to 2020’, Ref. Ares(2014)2070433, Jun. 2014. [5] ‘Personal remi ances, received (current US$) Ethiopia.’, The World Bank Data, 2016. [Online]. Available:

h ps://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.CD.DT?end=2016&loca ons=ET&start=2016&year_high_desc=false.

[6] ‘Eurostat Asylum and first me asylum applicants by ci zenship, age and sex Monthly data (rounded) [migr_asyappctzm].’, Eurostat 2017. [Online]. Available: h p://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=migr_asypenctzm&lang=en.

[7] Athens News Agency, ‘Refugees and migrants arrivals on Greek islands significantly down in February’, 01-Feb-2017.

[8] ‘Ethiopia. Ac on and Progress Under The Migra on Partnership Framework. June 2016 - March 2017’, European External Ac on Service, Factsheet, Mar. 2017.

[9] ‘Italy sets up fund to help African countries stop migrants’, Reuters, 01-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.reuters.com/ar cle/us-europe-migrants-italy-idUSKBN15G4GR. [Accessed: 20-Jun-2017].

[10] European Commission, ‘Commission reports on progress under the migra on partnership framework and increased ac on along the Central Mediterranean Route’, 02-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-369_en.htm. [Accessed: 23-Jun-2017].

[11] Hiiraan Online, ‘Humanitarian corridor with Ethiopia to open’, 12-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2017/jan/139814/humanitarian_corridor_with_ethiopia_to_open.aspx. [Accessed: 14-Sep-2017].

[12] UN DESA, ‘World Popula on Prospects, The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables.’, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Popula on Division.

[13] AllAfrica, ‘East Africa: UNHCR Hails Ethiopia’s Refugee Handling’, AllAfrica, 18-Feb-2017. [14] ‘Ethiopia Refugees and Asylum-seekers (as of 31 March 2017)’, UNHCR, Apr. 2017. [15] IOM, ‘IOM Provides Transport, Access to Aid for Eritrean Refugees in Ethiopia’, Interna onal Organiza on for

Migra on, 01-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.iom.int/news/iom-provides-transport-access-aid-eritrean-refugees-ethiopia. [Accessed: 28-Jun-2017].

[16] ‘Ethiopia Refugees and Asylum-seekers (as of 31 January 2017)’, UNHCR, Feb. 2017. [17] ‘Ethiopia Refugees and Asylum-seekers (as of 30 November 2016)’, UNHCR, Dec. 2016. [18] Addis Fortune, ‘Refugees Arrive in Ethiopia’, 11-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available:

h ps://addisfortune.net/ar cles/refugees-arrive-in-ethiopia/. [Accessed: 28-Jun-2017]. [19] IRIN, ‘Can aid come in me to avert famine in Somalia?’, IRIN, 06-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available:

h ps://www.irinnews.org/feature/2017/03/06/can-aid-come- me-avert-famine-somalia. [Accessed: 26-Jun-2017].

[20] ‘Ethiopia sees surge in refugees from South Sudan, UN says - Sudan Tribune: Plural news and views on Sudan’, 19-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?ar cle61930. [Accessed: 05-Jul-2017].

[21] R. Malle and et al, ‘Journeys on hold How policy influences the migra on decisions of Eritreans in Ethiopia’, Overseas Development Ins tute, Feb. 2017.

[22] Thomson Reuters, ‘No work means Ethiopia is no home for refugees - report’, 02-Mar-2017. [23] Ethiopian News Agency, ‘Response to Refugee Needs to be Done Developmentally: ARRA’, 25-Feb-2017.



[24] Africa Intelligence, ‘Afars against opening door to Issa refugees’, 24-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/corridors-of-power/2017/03/24/afars-against-opening-door-to-issa-refugees,108227408-BRE. [Accessed: 25-Sep-2017].

[25] ENA, ‘IOM to compile integrated policy against illegal migra on in HoA’, 06-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/social/item/2518-iom-to-compile-integrated-policy-against-illegal-migra on-in-hoa. [Accessed: 14-Sep-2017].

[26] De Birhaner, ‘A Thousand Ethiopians deported from South Africa in 6 months’, De Birhan, 14-Mar-2017. . [27] arab news, ‘90-day amnesty granted to residency, labor violators in Saudi Arabia’, Arab News, 19-Mar-2017. [28] ‘UN News - Yemen: Ongoing humanitarian crisis adding to migrants woes, says UN migra on agency’, UN

News Centre, 18-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=55992#.Wc5xb1uCyUk. [Accessed: 29-Sep-2017].

[29] The Guardian, ‘EU urged to end coopera on with Sudan a er refugees whipped and deported’, The Guardian, 27-Feb-2017.

[30] ‘Severe Food Shortages Hit Africa’s Refugees Hard - UNHCR And WFP Warn’, World Food Programme, 20-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.wfp.org/news/news-release/severe-food-shortages-hit-africas-refugees-hardunhcr-and-wfp-warn. [Accessed: 22-Jun-2017].

[31] The Ethiopian Herald, ‘Ethiopia: World Bank Funds U.S.$100 Million Refugee Project’, The Ethiopian Herald (Addis Ababa), 02-Jan-2017.

[32] ‘Pri Patel will double public dona ons to the Disasters Emergency Commi ee East Africa Crisis Appeal this weekend’, Disasters Emergency Commi ee, 18-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.dec.org.uk/press-release/pri -patel-will-double-public-dona ons-to-the-disasters-emergency-commi ee-east. [Accessed: 28-Sep-2017].

[33] ENA, ‘Hailemariam, Guterres Discuss Na onal, Global Issues’, 29-Jan-2017. [34] Al Jazeera, ‘Leaders gather to elect AU chair, re-examine key issues’, 29-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available:

h p://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/01/leaders-gather-elect-au-chair-examine-key-issues-170129050912231.html. [Accessed: 18-Sep-2017].

[35] Amnes Interna onal, ‘“Poli cs of demoniza on” breeding division and fear’, 22-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/02/amnesty-interna onal-annual-report-201617/. [Accessed: 19-Sep-2017].

[36] Ayyaantuu News, ‘One Year Anniversary of Oromo Protests Against Land Grabs’, 03-Nov-2016. . [37] ‘Ethiopian opposi on leader pleads not guilty to incitement charges’, Reuters, 03-Mar-2017. [38] African Arguments, ‘Never Again? Inside Ethiopia“s ”retraining" programme for thousands of detained

protesters’, 26-Jan-2017. [39] African Intelligence, ‘Order prevails in Addis but borders are on fire - Issue 1446 dated 10/03/2017’, The Indian

Ocean Newsle er, 10-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.africaintelligence.com/ION/corridors-of-power/2017/03/10/order-prevails-in-addis-but-borders-are-on-fire,108225476-ART. [Accessed: 25-Sep-2017].

[40] Reuters, ‘Ethiopian army frees six children kidnapped by South Sudan gunmen’, Reuters, 17-Mar-2017. [41] ‘Ethiopia reports deadly raid by gunmen from South Sudan’, Al Jazeera, 15-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available:

h p://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/03/ethiopia-reports-deadly-raid-gunmen-south-sudan-170315130515870.html. [Accessed: 25-Sep-2017].

[42] ‘Unemployment insurance unions: job crea on for the youth that works’, The Reporter, 14-Jan-2017. [43] ‘Focus on famine in Africa and Syrian crisis - Finland channels over EUR 61 million in humanitarian aid -

Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland: Current affairs’, Government of Finland, Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, 27-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://formin.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?conten d=359919&contentlan=2&culture=en-US. [Accessed: 28-Sep-2017].

[44] EIB, ‘Renewed coopera on between Luxembourg and the EIB marks ten years of partnership suppor ng micro and small enterprises in ACP countries’, www.eib.org, 21-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available:



h p://www.eib.org/infocentre/press/releases/all/2017/2017-009-une-coopera on-renouvelee-du-luxembourg-et-de-la-bei-scelle-10-ans-de-partenariat-au-sou en-des-micro-et-pe tes-entreprises-dans-les-pays-acp.htm. [Accessed: 16-Jun-2017].

[45] ‘Italy Donates 500,000 Euros to Enhance Private Sector’, ENA, 08-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/social/item/2858-italy-donates-500-000-euros-to-enhance-private-sector. [Accessed: 26-Jun-2017].

[46] Fana Broadcas ng Corporate, ‘FBC - Refugees, host communi es in Ethiopia to benefit from €30mln regional development, protec on programme’, 22-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.fanabc.com/english/index.php/news/item/8214-refugees,-host-communi es-in-ethiopia-to-benefit-from-%E2%82%AC30mln-regional-development,-protec on-programme. [Accessed: 22-Jun-2017].

[47] ‘UK aid over Mediterranean migra on “some distance from measurable impact” -’, Belfast Telecom, 10-Mar-2017.

[48] ‘EXCLUSIVE: UN humanitarian wing OCHA lays off 170, starts overhaul’, IRIN, 16-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.irinnews.org/inves ga on/2017/01/16/exclusive-un-humanitarian-wing-ocha-lays-170-starts-overhaul. [Accessed: 15-Jun-2017].

[49] U. N. H. C. for Refugees, ‘H&M Founda on donates $3.3 million [£2.7 million] for educa on for refugee children’, UNHCR, 24-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.unhcr.org/news/press/2017/1/58871c8c7/hm-founda on-donates-33-million-[£27-million]-for-educa on-for-refugee.html. [Accessed: 26-Sep-2017].

[50] ‘Corporate partnerships: Ikea links up with six chari es in play push’, Third sector, 06-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.thirdsector.co.uk/ar cle/1421868. [Accessed: 20-Jun-2017].

[51] ‘With crises set to worsen, what are aid groups’ priori es for 2017?’, Reuters News, 03-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://af.reuters.com/ar cle/commodi esNews/idAFL5N1ET19Q. [Accessed: 29-Sep-2017].

[52] ‘New drought risks in Ethiopia put recovery at risk’, FAO, Jan. 2017. [53] ‘Millions of people face food shortages in the Horn of Africa’, FAO, 29-Jan-2017. [Online]. Available:

h p://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/468941/icode/. [Accessed: 19-Jun-2017]. [54] ‘Worst Drought in Decades Drives Food Price Spike in East Africa | Inter Press Service’, Inter Press Service, 15-

Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.ipsnews.net/2017/02/worst-drought-in-decades-drives-food-price-spike-in-east-africa/. [Accessed: 22-Jun-2017].

[55] ‘USD 110 million needed for humanitarian appeal to children’, Capital Ethiopia Newspaper, 13-Feb-2017. [56] ‘UN Chief rallies support against drought in Ethiopia’, Ethiopian News Agency, 30-Jan-2017. [57] ‘1.5 million foreigners seek to travel to Europe: Sudanese official - Sudan Tribune: Plural news and views on

Sudan’, Sudan Tribune, 26-Feb-2017. [58] Sudan Tribune, ‘Sudan’s SRF mili a arrests 1500 illegal migrants near Libyan border’, 08-Jan-2017. [59] ‘Sudan’s RSF arrests 64 illegal migrants near Libyan border - Sudan Tribune: Plural news and views on Sudan’,

Sudan Tribune, 24-Jan-2014. [60] ‘Sudanese FM receives Ethiopian ambassador in Khartoum’, Ethiopian Broadcas ng Corpora on, 15-Mar-

2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.ebc.et/web/ennews/-/sudanese-fm-receives-ethiopian-ambassador-in-khartoum. [Accessed: 04-Jul-2017].

[61] ‘East African countries pledge to integrate Somali refugees’, EBL News, 25-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://eblnews.com/news/world/east-african-countries-pledge-integrate-somali-refugees-68075. [Accessed: 05-Jul-2017].

[62] ‘East African bloc: Members to allow Somali refugees to work’, Associated Press, 25-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/03/25/east-african-bloc-members-to-allow-somali-refugees-to-work.html. [Accessed: 05-Jul-2017].

[63] ‘Nairobi Declara on on Somali Refugees’, IGAD, 25-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://igad.int/communique/1519-communique-special-summit-of-the-igad-assembly-of-heads-of-state-and-government-on-durable-solu ons-for-somali-refugees. [Accessed: 03-Oct-2017].



[64] ‘Nile: Region engages in a flurry of diplomacy’, The East African, 09-Mar-2017. [65] ‘South Sudan ambassador dismisses ri with Ethiopia’, Business Insider, 24-Jan-2017. [66] ‘Uganda hailed on refugees and campaign against malaria, child marriages’, The Independent, 31-Jan-2017. [67] ‘UN agency revises funding requirements to tackle Africa’s worst displacement crisis’, UN News Service

Sec on, 20-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=56010#.WUPcmJKGOUk. [Accessed: 16-Jun-2017].

[68] ‘High-level event on the humanitarian situa on in Ethiopia’, Permanent Representa ve of Ethiopia to the UN at Geneva and other Interna onal Organisa ons, 06-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.ethiopianmission.ch/2017/02/06/high-level-event-on-the-humanitarian-situa on-in-ethiopia/. [Accessed: 13-Oct-2017].

[69] ‘Drought is pushing food prices up sharply in East Africa’, FAO, 14-Feb-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/470220/icode/. [Accessed: 22-Jun-2017].

[70] ‘Ethiopia taking measures to mi gate new drought’, Embassy of Ethiopia in Belgium, 09-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h p://ethiopianembassy.be/en/2017/03/09/ethiopia-taking-measures-to-mi gate-new-drought/.

[71] ‘U.N. to plant 1 million trees to fight deforesta on near Ethiopia refugee camps’, Reuters, 08-Feb-2017. [72] ‘South Sudanese Refugees Trained on Environment Conserva on at Jewi Camp, Ethiopia’, Interna onal

Organiza on for Migra on, 17-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available: h ps://www.iom.int/news/south-sudanese-refugees-trained-environment-conserva on-jewi-camp-ethiopia. [Accessed: 04-Jul-2017].

[73] ‘Ethiopia-Sudan border development conference kicks off on Thursday’, Sudan Tribune, 14-Feb-2017. [74] ‘Djibou expanding, consolida ng rela ons’, The Ethiopian Herald, 07-Mar-2017. [75] ‘Ethiopia, Kenya Keen to Boost Bilateral Rela ons’, Ethiopian News Agency, 11-Mar-2017. [Online]. Available:

h p://www.ena.gov.et/en/index.php/poli cs/item/2873-ethiopia-kenya-keen-to-boost-bilateral-rela ons. [Accessed: 28-Jun-2017].

1 Development and humanitarian data on migration are extracted from EU Aid Explorer (h ps://euaidexploprer.ec.europa.eu ). Data for development are from IATI registry; EU ins tu ons repor ng in the analyzed months include DEVCO and FPI; ECHO is included in Humanitarian count. Data for humanitarian aid are from EDRIS informa on system. Extrac on date: 13.10.2017. 2 An estimate based on the reports by UNHCR [14], [16], [17] 3 The project is a part of Development Response to Displacement Impact Project in Horn of Africa (approx. EUR 93 million.) 4 In 2016, Public declara ons released by RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan on the paramilitary group's opera ons along the Sudan-Libya border also suggest higher figures (h ps://www.dabangasudan.org/en/all-news/ar cle/commander-eu-should-express-gra tude-to-sudanese-rsf ).

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