MIGRATION PROCESSES AMONG DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:

THE MIDDLE EAST

Nazli Choucri

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

This paper is part of a research project undertaken within the context of the Technology Adaptation Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and is allowed to ap- pear in the Migration and Development Study Group series as a courtesy of the Technology Adaptation Program.

Migration and Development Study Group

Center for International Studies Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

Revised May 1978

MIGRATION PROCESSES AMONG DEVEMPING COUNTRIES:

THE MIDDLE EAST

I. INTRODUCTION:

MIGRATION PROCESSES I N DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Conventional views of migration i n developing countr ies focus on

f i v e types of movements, on the assumption t h a t they represent a l l

1 possible pa t terns : rural-urban migration; seasonal movement; unskil led

labor i n search o f employment opportunit ies; the "brain drain" phenomenon;

and the crea t ion of refugees. Each of these pa t t e rns represents a

p a r t i c u l a r type o f population movement, and empirical evidence serves t o

sus ta in this prevai l ing f ivefold conception. 2

A l m o s t a l l developing countr ies a r e experiencing rapid cityward

movements which have contributed t o urbanization problems s ince the end

of the Second World Seasonal labor within and across nat ional

borders has shaped employment pa t t e rns i n many region^.^ The migration

of unskil led o r semiskil led workers-- such a s Mexican migrants i n the

6 United ~ t a t e s , ~ ~ u r k s and Yugoslavs i n Germany and Austr ia , Algerians i n

~ r a n c e , ' and so forth-- is o f t en regarded a s the dominant pa t t e rn of labor

movement from poorer countr ies . The "brain dra in ," commonly described a s

pul l ing s k i l l e d labor toward advanced s o c i e t i e s , l e d t o a r e l a t e d be l i e f

that s k i l l e d migration always cons t i tu tes a "drain."' F inal ly , everyone

acknowledges the importance of a f i f t h pa t t e rn , namely, p o l i t i c a l refugees,

as those created most dramatically by g rea t c o n f l i c t s i n the Indian sub-

continent and i n Eastern Europe, Pales t ine , and elsewhere. 9

A common charac te r i s t i c of these pa t t e rns of movements-- except

perhaps f o r refugees-- is t h a t they a f f e c t only pa r t i cu la r sec to r s of

society, economy, o r po l i ty ; they a r e undimensional i n the sense of being

motivated l a rge ly by economic incentives o r p o l i t i c a l ones; and they a r e

seldom c e n t r a l t o p o l i t i c a l performance o r economic a c t i v i t i e s i n e i t h e r

sending o r receiving communities.1° In shor t , popular images of in te r -

na t ional migration i n developing countr ies s t i l l view such movements a s

la rgely per iphera l t o t h e cen t ra l i s sues of p o l i t i c a l change and nat ional

development. 11

There i s y e t another d i s t i n c t i v e pa t t e rn of migration t h a t d i f f e r s

markedly from t h e o ther f i v e pa t t e rns and a t the same time c o n s t i t u t e s

a cen t ra l f ea tu re of both p o l i t y and economy f o r donor and rec ip ien t s

a l i k e , namely, labor migration developing countr ies . This pa t t e rn

i s exhibi ted by t h e new movement of workers i n t h e Middle East and by the

underlying p o l i t i c a l and economic imperatives t h a t sus ta in t h i s movement.

The purpose of t h i s monograph i s t o examine recent t rends i n migration

throughout t h e Middle East , i d e n t i f y the major economic and p o l i t i c a l

implications of t h i s movement, develop a conceptual framework f o r modeling

migration, and i s o l a t e the c r i t i c a l policy options f o r t h e countr ies

involved. We s h a l l argue t h a t labor migration i n t h e Middle E a s t is

generated by recent changes i n the p o l i t i c a l economy of the region, t h a t

it transcends narrow demographic concerns, and t h a t it may well shape t h e

p o l i t i c a l and economic fu ture of the area fo r many decades t o come.

The burden of these arguments r e s t s on the extent of migration, i t s

composition, t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n wages and employment oppor tuni t ies ,

savinqs and remittances of migrant workers, government p o l i c i e s f o r regu-

l a t i n g the movement of manpower across t e r r i t o r i a l boundaries, and o f f i c i a l

expectations of the role of migration in development programs. Population

movements in the Middle East may well cast a new light on prevailing

conceptions of migration and reveal the full dependence of economic and

political orders on the nature of labor flows across national boundaries.

11. MIGRATION I N THE MIDDLE EAST

The i s sue of labor migration i n the Middle East has, t o da te , been

largely overlooked by p o l i t i c a l analys ts , economists, and area s p e c i a l i s t s

a l ike . P o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s tend t o concentrate on the c u l t u r a l homogeneity

of the Arab s t a t e s , t h e i r c o n f l i c t with I s r a e l , and the dispute over

petroleum prices.'' Economists typ ica l ly focus on macro-economic performance,

on the e f f e c t s of the new o i l p r i ces , o r on s e c t o r a l problems, f o r one

country o r another.13 And area s p e c i a l i s t s have provided descr ip t ive ly r i c h

analyses of the region bu t expressed l i t t l e concern f o r the apparent impli-

ca t ions of the new labor mvements.14 Yet i n recent years there has been

a marked change i n migration trends with at tendant na t ional a s well a s re-

gional ramifications. That migration i s characterized by a complex network

of flows t h a t i s dominated by Egyptian workers i n o ther Arab s t a t e s .

A b r i e f charac ter iza t ion of migration i n the Middle East may serve a s

an introduction t o the p o l i t i c a l economy of the region and t o the policy

i ssues that inevi tably a r i s e . The d i s t i n c t i v e fea tures of t h i s migration

a r e the following:

F i r s t , it i s a pa t t e rn of flow among developing countr ies; labor

remains within t h e region, r a the r than migrating external ly.

Second, it i s composed ne i the r of s k i l l e d nor unskil led labor alone;

the e n t i r e s t ruc tu re of the labor force i s involved i n and, i n turn , a f fec ted

by t h i s movement.

Third, it is not permanent i n na ture , bu t temporary, generally from

one t o four years.

Fourth, it is generated and maintained by underlying economic and

p o l i t i c a l forces t h a t c rea te the incentives f o r mvement and t h e regulat ions

for sustaining the flows.

Fifth, it is recognized by all parties as an explicit feature of

the political economy of the region, whereby both the political and the

economic dimensions are given -weights.

Sixth, these perceptions in policymaking circles are maintained by

economic imperatives; the supply and demand for labor generate an under-

lying rationale that places pressures on policy responses for regulating

and facilitating the movement of labor.

Together, these six characteristics of migration in the Middle East

generate a pattern that is distinctive to the types of economies in the

region. We shall argue that cultural similarities only contribute to these

patterns, while the interdependence of economic and political factors shapes

the new labor movements and may, in turn, transform both the politics and

the economics of the area in ways that can only have profound consequences. I

The costs and benefits of this migration have been examined elsewhere. 15

Here we focus on characteristic features that bear upon conceptual approaches

to the analysis of migration processes.

111. POLITICAL ECONOMY I N THE MIDDLE EAST:

THE DETERMINANTS OF MIGRATION 16

The petroleum c r i s i s of October 1973 has drawn dramatic a t t en t ion

t o the differences among the countries of the Middle E a s t i n terms of s i z e

and wealth.17 Indeed, the most populous countries a r e the poorest i n

natura l resources, and the r i c h e s t countries a r e smallest i n population.

In addit ion, vas t differences e x i s t i n the l e v e l of technological develop-

ment and manpower charac te r i s t i c s . The l a r g e s t countries i n population

s i z e a r e the most developed i n terms of overa l l knowledge and s k i l l s . For

t h e smaller but m r e wealthy countries, manpower a v a i l a b i l i t y is the s ingle

mst important const ra in t on economic development. Over the years these

differences have contributed t o sharp pa t t e rns of migration across nat ional

boundaries and t o the mobility of both s k i l l e d and unskilled labor.

To a large extent the Arab Middle East i s a closed system, i n t h a t

demographic charac te r i s t i c s have not been influenced by large-scale out-

migration. A l m s t a l l movement across nat ional boundaries is within the

region and usually of temporary duration. In t h i s context four types of

migratory s i tua t ions can be delineated, each d i f fe r ing according t o man-

power composition and at tendant implications:

1. Countries t h a t export la rgely s k i l l e d o r professional labor

(Egypt most notably, a s well as Lebanon and Jordan);

2. Countries t h a t import a large o r c r i t i c a l port ion of the labor

force, pa r t i cu la r ly s k i l l e d workers (Kuwait, Saudi Arabia,

Libya, and the Arab s t a t e s i n the Gulf region);

3. Countries t h a t export r e la t ive ly unskil led workers (Algeria,

predominently); and

The demand Eor Egyptian manpower i s reinforced fu r the r by the long-

standing ro le of Egyptians a s mediators between Western technology and Arab

requirements. A two-step flow of technology t r a n s f e r i n the Middle East

has evolved during the pas t twenty years, chaneling flows from the in-

d u s t r i a l s t a t e s t o Egypt and from Egypt t o the o ther Arab countries. The

brokerage r o l e of Egyptians i n technological t r a n s f e r s was reinforced

once more by the increased demand f o r Western technology i n the o i l - r i c h

s t a t e s following the r i s e i n petroleum pr ices .

In addit ion, some noneconomic fac to r s a f f e c t fu r the r the demand f o r

Egyptian labor. I n the area of manpower Egypt's advantage l i e s i n the

c u l t u r a l s i m i l a r i t y t h a t reduces the d i f f i c u l t i e s of accomodation and

adaptation t o an a l i e n environment. Although other Arab s t a t e s import

labor from elsewhere, most notably I ran , Pakistan and India, Egyptian labor

i s c lea r ly more des i rable . So, too, the country ' s t r a d i t i o n a l r o l e of

p o l i t i c a l leadership i n the Middle East i s undoubtedly an important socio-

logica l consideration contributing t o the demand f o r Egyptian labor.

Egypt has long set the l i n e s of regional policy, shaping ideological

debates and serving as the hub of communication throughout the Arab world.

Closely re la ted i s Egypt's pos i t ion as c u l t u r a l leader i n the region,

serving the educational requirements of a11 other Arab s t a t e s .

But the flow of manpower i s only p a r t l y determined by the supply of

Egyptians and the demand i n o ther Arab s t a t e s . Migration has become, f o r

both donor and rec ip ien t , an i n d i r e c t and of ten inadvertent instrument of

foreign policy. Regional p o l i t i c s and migration pa t t e rns a r e inextr icably

intertwined. Times of poor re la t ions among the Arabs were re f l ec ted i n

the decline of migration; occasional inter-Arab detentes accelerated the

flows. For example, the large-scale migration of Egyptians t o Libya

during 1969-1973 and again i n 1975-1976 coincided w i t h t he period of

c loses t Libyan-Egyptian economic and p o l i t i c a l col laborat ion. Since

1973 the i ssue of migrant workers has been used f o r p o l i t i c a l leverage

by both Egypt and Libya. Periodic c o n f l i c t s between the hro countr ies

have drawn a t t en t ion t o the importance of labor wvement f o r both.

In the Middle East p o l i t i c a l objec t ives have long dominated economic

p r i o r i t i e s and shaped economic po l i c i e s . Should migration be e x p l i c i t l y

regarded a s a p o l i t i c a l weapon, the volume of Egyptian workers i n Arab

countr ies could become one of the most ser ious foreign pol icy i ssues

f o r a l l s t a t e s i n the region.

I V . LABOR MIGRATION AND FOREIGN POLICY 19

The common consensus is t h a t Egypt has no t experienced any s izable

in-migration o r out-migration u n t i l t he most recent years. The number of

foreigners res id ing i n Egypt a s recorded i n t h e 1897 census was 112,000.

By 1960 census f igures r e f l ec ted a marginal increase t o 143,000. 20 he

number of Egyptian nat ionals l iv ing abroad was s imi lar ly few. Following

t h e nat ional iza t ions of the Nasser regime, Greeks, I t a l i a n s , Armenians,

Jews, and Egyptians a f f i l i a t e d with t h e ancien rggime l e f t Egypt. In

1965 it was estimated t h a t l e s s than 100,000 were recorded as migrants

i n t h a t yeareZ1 And most of these were working i n Arab countr ies as

teachers and professionals . 22

The revolutionary government es tabl i shed i n 1952 had viewed migra-

t i o n a s an instrument of i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c a l control . Domestic repression

was accompanied by s t r ingen t emigration laws. Obtaining an "exi t v isa"

proved t o be one of t h e most d i f f i c u l t attainments o f any Egyptian seeking

t o leave the country. Strong currency contro ls were i n s t i t u t e d i n an

e f f o r t t o reduce the outflow of cap i t a l . And those fami l iar with Egyptian

i n t e r n a l p o l i t i c s came t o view changes i n emigration regulat ions a s a

r e l i a b l e barometer of domestic tensions. The most severe s t r a i n s i n

domestic p o l i t i c s were between 1961 ( the breakup o f the union with Syria)

and 1967 ( the t h i r d war w i t h I s r a e l ) .

The government's policy i n c o n t r o l l i n g migration t o the West was t o

reduce dependence on the United S ta tes , Great Br i ta in , and France and t o

s igna l grea ter rapprochement with the Soviet Union and the Comunist

countr ies . Migration to the A r a b s t a t e s was a l s o af fec ted by this policy.

On t h e o ther hand, the o the r Arab s t a t e s ' suspicion of Nasser's p o l i t i c a l

motives was re f l ec ted i n a reluctance t o encourage the emigration of

Egyptians.

The Sadat regime l ibe ra l i zed domestic p o l i t i c s and, following the

1973 war, proclaimed an "open door" policy. To the Egyptians it s ign i f i ed

not only the p o s s i b i l i t i e s of foreign investment i n Egypt, but prospects

f o r Egyptian migration abroad. In cont ras t t o emigration r e s t r i c t i o n s i n

e a r l i e r years , the new Sadat migration policy has become s ingular ly "open."

The fundamental changes i n regional p o l i t i c s , characterized by a

movement from ideologica l p o l i t i c s t o pragmatic s tances and by Egypt's

willingness t o rel inquish a pos i t ion of dominance i n t h e Arab world, con-

t r ibu ted t o t h e reduction i n inter-&& h o s t i l i t i e s . 23 In e f f e c t , Sadat

had argued fo r an appreciat ion of the new leverages associated with o i l

revenues and recognized t h e consequences of a l i ena t ing t h e o i l - r i ch s t a t e s

by pursuing t h e o ld Nasser s t r a t egy of Egyptian dominance. By accepting,

even arguing f o r , a reduced r o l e i n Arab p o l i t i c s , Sadat al layed h i s

neighbors' suspicions and, more important, i n d i r e c t l y reaffirmed Egypt's

c u l t u r a l and p o l i t i c a l importance t o the o the r s t a t e s i n the region.

This s h i f t i n r e a l p o l i t i k has had s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s upon pat terns

of migration throughout the region. The demand of o the r Arab s t a t e s f o r

s k i l l e d manpower could now be met by the outflow of Egyptians without

immediate p o l i t i c a l obs tac les being interposed. In shor t , while the

increase i n petroleum pr ices and at tendant growth i n surplus revenues of

the o i l - r i ch s t a t e s resul ted i n an immediate growth i n demand f o r s k i l l e d

Egyptians, the a b i l i t y of the Sadat government t o convince neighboring

Arab s t a t e s of i ts benign p o l i t i c a l i n t e n t s was undoubtedly the most impor-

t a n t f ac to r d i r e c t l y responsible f o r increased migration.

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compared with 500,000 Kuwaitis. It was not u n t i l t he war of 1973 t h a t

a marked and accelera ted increase i n Egyptian migration took place.

Although prec ise f igu res a r e not avai lable from Egyptian sources, educated

guesses of t o t a l migrants range from 225,000 t o 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 , ~ ~ and possibly

a s high a s one mi l l ion o r 10% of Egypt's t o t a l labor force . The 1976

census places t h i s f igure a t 1.4 mi l l ion .

Egyptians tend t o move f o r s h o r t periods. Exis t ing r u l e s and reg-

u l a t ions a r e such t h a t they re inforce shor t durat ions. Should these

change, it i s l i k e l y t o be l a rge ly i n response t o economic pressures i n

Arab s t a t e s , no t t o p o l i t i c a l pressure exerted by the government of Egypt.

I t i s c l e a r t h a t Egyptian manpower comprises the backbone of the educated

personnel i n the Arab count r ies of t h e Gulf a rea . I n addi t ion t o the

continuation of these t rends , unskil led workers have a l s o been migrating

t o the Gulf. To t h e ex ten t t h a t such flows p e r s i s t , they may wel l cons t i -

t u t e a n e t d ra in on Egyptian manpower resources a t some l e v e l s , one t h a t

might impact upon the s k i l l e d and perhaps the unski l led components of the

labor force .

A s noted e a r l i e r , Egypt has no o f f i c i a l migration policy. I n e f f e c t ,

the government i s promotional i n its o r i e n t a t i o n and even i m p l i c i t l y encou-

raging. However, discernable migration-controlling p o l i c i e s are apparent

i n the r ec ip ien t countr ies . The posture of the Arab s t a t e s has been one of

dependence upon the Egyptians coupled with caution a t times bordering on

suspicion, i f not h o s t i l i t y . Kuwait, f o r example, has e f f e c t i v e l y segregated

i t s c i t i z e n s from the a l i e n population, and it has developed an i n t r i c a t e

system of regula t ions t o safeguard t h i s segregation. To the extent t h a t s

immediate "solut ions" l i e i n separa t ing the a l i e n work force and preventing

its effective integration into the body politic, a two-class system will

be consolidated, leaving the migrant Egyptians essentially politically

disadvantaged in their host countries. In short, what the other Arab

states will do will inevitably affect the Egyptians. Similarly, Egyptian

policies may well have reverberating effects.

V. MODELS OF MIGRATION: A SELECTIVE REVIEW

These observations of labor migration in the Middle East are

largely descriptive, pointing out characteristic features and some

policy implications. Indeed, much of what is written on migration is

25 descriptive. Yet to fully understand the process of migration and

identify appropriate policy interventions, it is necessary to develop

a formal representation of its characteristic features. There have

only been a few efforts to model the movement of population.26 Most

are piecemeal, focusing on a single aspect, and do not provide an

overall framework for understanding the interdependence between sending

and receiving communities. This section reviews ten studies pertaining

to models of migration. Our purpose is to draw appropriate lessons

for developing countries, taking into account the characteristics of

both donors and recipients.

Each of the studies reviewed here yielded specific insights into

the nature of migration processes. They are all analyses of cityward

movements; almost nothing systematic has been done on interstate migra-

tion. Clearly, models of rural-urban migration are only partly relevant

to migration among developing countries, but they yield important infor-

mation regarding the generic process of population movement. The

individual contributions of these studies are underlined, to indicate

their most useful features.

The point of departure is a survey of research on internal migration

in the United States by Michael Greenwood, which reviews the evidence

regarding the determinants and consequences of cityward movement. 27

Greenwood differentiates between models of gross migration and models

of n e t migration and synthesizes what has been found with respect t o

the e f f e c t s of d is tance , income, psychic cos t s of migration, information,

and individual c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t r e l a t e t o the decision t o migrate.

In the review of consequences Greenwood notes the ef f ic iency of market

mechanics i n r ed i s t r ibu t ing labor resources, and the e x t e r n a l i t i e s

associated with migration, and h igh l igh t s the ambiguities i n both these

respects .

While most e f f o r t s t o iden t i fy the determinants and consequences of

migration a r e i n terms of s ing le equation est imates, the re i s a simulta-

ne i ty i n the process t h a t remains not f u l l y explicated. That i s sue i s

ra ised more cen t ra l ly i n another a r t i c l e i n which re en wood" c r i t i c i z e s

the assumption of many migration models, namely, t h a t although there a r e

var iables which influence migration, migration i n t u r n does not have an

e f f e c t upon these var iables . The purpose of t h i s second study i s t o

undertake an empirical ly based examination of quan t i t a t ive d i f ferences

i n the parameter estimates of f ive d i f f e r e n t models a s the e f f e c t s of

migration on socioeconomic and demographic var iables a r e i so la ted .

Although he r a i s e s the simultaneity i s sue a s i d e n t i f i e d i n h i s c e n t r a l

question of concern, the est imation procedure employed is ordinary l e a s t

squares ( O L S ) . The OLS est imates produce biased parameter estimates

when s imul tanei t ies a r e known t o e x i s t and when there a r e lagged endo-

genous var iables . Greenwood does not employ such var iables , y e t does

seek t o untangle the e f f e c t s of bu i l t - in s imul tanei t ies . But by simply

recognizing t h a t OLS est imates a r e biased, Greenwood made important con-

t r ibu t ions t o the development of generic migration models.

A r e l a t ed study of s ignif icance i n r e f l e c t i n g upon the ana ly t i ca l

s t ruc tu re of the migration process i s by Theodore Lianos who proposes

a stocks and flows approach t o m i g r a t i ~ n . ' ~ The bas ic argument is t h a t

i n modeling migration the e f f o r t should take i n t o account not only the

determinants of the flows but a l s o the determinants of the stocks from

which the flows a r e generated. That perspective assumes the existence

Of time lags i n the labor market which cause t h e stocks to accumulate

before any movement takes place. Lianos p o s i t s two types of lags: re-

sponse lags and information lags. The former is a stock deplet ing lag ,

the l a t t e r a stock formation lag. The e f f o r t is essen t i a l ly an econo-

metric approach t o a dynamic system formulation.

The d i s t i n c t i o n between stocks and flows is somewhat d i f f e r e n t from

the d i s t inc t ion between movers and nonmovers posi ted by Peter Morrison. 30

Morrison uses a Markov speci f ica t ion f o r modeling movement, based on the

concept t h a t individuals have d i f f e r e n t thresholds t o the decision t o

migrate. Lianos, on the o ther hand, assumes impl ic i t ly t h a t eventually

the e n t i r e stock could be depleted and does not recognize differences i n

the threshold t o mve .

Of the many migration models focusing on i n t e r n a l movement one e f f o r t

i s pa r t i cu la r ly relevant because it employs Egyptian data and seeks t o

ident i fy the determinants of labor migration i n ~ g y p t . ~ ~ This study,

a l s o by Greenwood, recognizes the paucity of empirical da ta on developing

countries and seeks t o obtain observations from the 1960 census of Egypt

f o r an analys is i n s u f f i c i e n t d e t a i l a s t o be comparable t o s tudies on

in te rna l migration i n the United S ta tes . The object is t o examine the

variables t h a t e f f e c t individual decisions t o migrate and t o estimate

the magnitude of the influence of each fac to r on aggregate labor supply.

Greenwwd found t h a t distance is an important hindrance t o in te rna l

migration, that there is movement from low wage to high wage areas, that

movers are attracted to regions with large populations and high urbaniza-

tion, but that there is also a tendency toward interurban movement. , Also of interest is a study by E. Drettakis that seeks to explain

changes in the employment of migrant workers in West Germany from 1961

to 1 9 7 2 . ~ ~ The Drettakis analysis tries to explain migration solely as

a function of unfilled job vacancies. While limited in its scope, it

draws attention to the role of employment opportunity (and related

variables) in determining migration.

Bhagwati and Partington's analysis of the "brain drain" issues

cited above33 reviews much of the literature and empirical studies that

bear directly on such drains. More general studies of international

movements are not emphasized in their survey.

A broader-based attempt to explain migration is proposed by Wilkinson

to explain labor migration from Europe to the United States, 1870-1914. 34

He focuses on output level of the U.S. and of the sending country, as

well as real wage differences between them. Two models are specified,

one in which the dependent variable is the equilibrium flow of labor to

the U.S. from the country of origin, and the second in which the depen-

dent variable is normalized with respect to the population of the whole

country. These variations have direct relevance to migration in the

Middle East since the population levels of sending and receiving countries

are substantially different, as is the directianal equilibrium flow of

labor.

A human capital perspective is adopted by Comay, who focuses on

35 migration of professionals. The specific application is with respect

to the migration of engineers and scientists to Canada from the United

States . The model focuses on the individual decisions to migrate.

Migration i t s e l f i s modeled as an investment which the individual seeks

t o maximize i n the country of or ig in . The core of the speci f ica t ion

comprises expected cos ts , expected benef i t s , the discount rate, and the

l i fe t ime earning span foreseen a t each age. That speci f ica t ion i s then

reformulated i n two forms, one simply addi t ive , and one representing the L

decision t o move wherein t h e probabi l i ty of migrating is a function of

employment opportunity i n t h e United Sta tes , sa la ry d i f f e r e n t i a l s , ex-

pected U.S. sa lary , o ther composite fac tors , and a random er ro r term.

This study draws upon e a r l i e r work which indicated tha t , among profession-

a l s only des t inat ion employment opportunit ies a r e s igni f icant .

Finally, there a r e two s p e c i f i c contributions by Ruth Fabricant t h a t

a r e worthy of emphasis.36 She dist inguishes between the supply and de-

mand f o r migrants and spec i f i e s wage r a t e s a s the adjustment mechanism.

Then she formulated t h e obstacles t o migration i n terms of a b a r r i e r

function. Since many of the obstacles to migration are re la ted t o the

ru les and regulat ions t h a t governments impose, t h i s conception of "bar-

r i e r " may be a useful way of formally representing t h e r o l e of government.

This review of migration models is not exhaustive by any means.

But it focuses e x p l i c i t l y on those s tud ies t h a t a r e d i r e c t l y relevant t o

the development of a generic model of population movement among develop-

ing countries. These s tud ies provide important clues f o r modeling both

the s t ruc tu re and process of migration. The clues are building blocks

f o r an ana ly t i ca l speci f ica t ion of labor movements across nat ional boun-

dar ies . Since the re fe ren t world t o be considered, the Middle East, is

a natura l laboratory of d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n demographic, economic, and

s o c i a l charac te r i s t i c s , it w i l l be possible t o inves t igate e x p l i c i t l y the

effects of different factors cited in the literature and their signifi-

cance as determinants (or consequences) of migration.

V I . MODELING MIGRATION< NG DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:

TOWARD A GENERIC REPReSENTATION

The purpose of developing a quant i f iable model of population

movement among developing countries is t o provide a framework i n which

to incorporate those economic, demographic, and policy variables c r i t i c a l

i n shaping both t h e individual decision t o migrate and the macro-societal

adjustments t o such decisions. It should a l s o allow f o r a representation

Of the at tendant interdependence between donor and rec ip ien t countries.

Modeling migration i s , i n our view, important f o r four reasons:

1. To understand the overa l l cha rac te r i s t i c fea tures of population

movement among developing countries;

2. To del ineate w i n t e r v e n t i o n s are most relevant to obtain

desired outcomes;

3. To iden t i fy where policy interventions might be appropriate;

4 . To determine the s t ructure of p o l i t i c a l and economic inter-

dependence between sending and receiving countries. The more

complex t h a t interdependence, t h e greater the need f o r con-

ceptual ass is tance i n c la r i fy ing its critical features.

Figure 1 represents a set of hypotheses about the process of migra-

t i o n among developing countries-- from both r u r a l and urban areas t o

foreign des t inat ions . The f igure depic ts generic processes and spec i f i e s

linkages among variables t h a t can be t e s ted against empirical data.

Note t h a t it incorporates the major clues provided by the t en models re-

viewed, namely: determinants and consequences of movements; stocks and

flows; simultaneity and at tendant interdependence; wage d i f f e r e n t i a l s ;

employment opportunit ies; human cap i t a l ; adjustment mechanisms; and

various b a r r i e r s t o migration.

For i l l u s t r a t i v e purposes the hypotheses depicted i n Figure 1 draw

upon movements between Egypt and Kuwait, as h ighl ight ing the most s igni-

f i c a n t f ea tu res of migration among countr ies of t h e Middle East . The na-

t u r e and extent of labor migration between these two countr ies dramatizes

its importance f o r both donor and rec ip ien t .

The contr ibution of Figure 1 is t h a t it spec i f i e s within the same

framework both the major determinants and the consequences of migration.

This formulation enables us t o t r a c e the r o l e and c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of both

donor and rec ip ien t .

Figure 1 incorporates t h e hypothesis t h a t the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the

donor country contr ibute i n determining the p o t e n t i a l migrants ( the stock

v a r i a b l e ) , while the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the r ec ip ien t country shape t h e

flow of labor. A t t he same time a b a r r i e r function is incorporated t o re-

f l e c t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t a c t u a l migration w i l l be tempered and contro l led

by governmental in tervent ions .

The inc lus ion of both r u r a l and urban sources of migrants i s designed

t o capture the empirical observation t h a t i n t h e Middle E a s t migration is,

i n some cases, a two-step flow-- from r u r a l t o urban areas and then from

urban areas t o foreign des t ina t ions . However, s ince Egyptian f e l l a h i n

have been observed i n the labor markets of Libya and t h e Sudan, the hypo-

t h e s i s t h a t flows may e x i s t between r u r a l a reas and foreign locat ions

cannot go untested. The inc lus ion of the r u r a l work force a s a poss ib le

determinant of t he stock of p o t e n t i a l migrants i s designed t o enable

t e s t i n g of the impact of the rural-foreign flow, important i n some coun-

tries of t h e Middle East.

FIGURE I :

THE MIGRATION PROCESS

Births per 1,000 Total _ _ Rural Females / - Population .,

/'

Bir ths per 1,000 / Urban Females

Potent ia l Rate o f Potent ia l Urban .-. Urban Rura 1 Urbanization Workforce Population t-1 Workforce .

, ~-

Urban ' \ / 1. 2.. Student Employment I Population i n Egypt Per Capita Income Rur a 1

i n Egypt ,Workforce Education

1 I I !

I k ,!,

Wage :i L-C Urban S k i l l e d i \! -

+ ~,

ffiwait - Wage ~ g y p t ~+ Workers 4-- --- -- Urban - Rural Potent ia l ~ Urban Wage Rate

Potent ial - Actual .~. -- / i Migrants Workforce Migration t-1

, k., 7 .\.

,/' Urban U n s k i l l e d 4 7

..~J---, I ! ', _/ Construction P Workers 1 N Act iv i ty 1 ~ /-

.- A/---

Domestic _-- Wages ..A

/--

,./*.*

'1 natura l iza t ion , ,' - . . . .. .

Tax on t-1 \. ~ncome - Barrier C----- - Residency Law

' 1 i i Total At t r i t i on - Earnings

r t-1

c, \ . Immigration Law

!% ?r , \ -

\ ..-- ,

\, Employment 1 -R~ '>Actual Construction ' Migrant ,L, i n . --Activity i n Kuwait

Wages Kuwait Remitted 4

L

\Tax on Manual ,. Remitted Wages

' '\ Government Employment Employment i n Kuwait i n Kuwait

Figure 1 is in the nature of a research agenda: we intend to esti-

mate the parameters of a system of simultaneous equations following the

initial specifications in the Figure. The jointly dependent variables

are noted in boxes, while the independent and exogenous variables are

simply listed at the tail of the arrows. The Figure is presented here

as an illustration of the characteristics of the model of the process

of migration which this proposed study seeks to develop and employ, as

a framework for evaluating the gains and losses to donor and recipient

of the movement of labor across national boundaries. The specific link-

ages in Figure 1 should be interpreted as initial hypotheses. This

specification of population movement is only a first step toward formal

modeling.

We propose to obtain empirical estimates of the coefficients through

the use of regression analysis. Since our purpose is to capture some of

the simultaneity in the process, and since our specifications include

lagged endogenous variables, ordinary least squares will not provide

consistent estimates of the "true" parameters. Employing two-stage

least squares in conjunction with generalized least squares (to correct

for the bias in the parameters introduced by serial correlation in the

disturbances) will provide the most consistent estimates of the coefficients. 37

The migration process depicted in Figure 1 is thus presented here as an

illustration of the type of structure that is suggested by synthesis from

the relevant literature and with direct applicability to the laboratory of

the Middle East. At this stage we cannot justify strongly any single or

specific link in that figure. Each is predicted on an underlying empirical

or theoretical rationale. The modeling task is to test the validity and

reliability of these linkages, respecify the equations as appropriate, and

d ~ u o sy qy qse3 aTppgq aqq 30 sayxqunos aqq 30 asou U I .ua~qoxd snoyxas

e asod T T ~ . sasueaqyax q u e x b y 'XaaamoH -sxead Xquamq qsed a m qseaT

l o 3 suoyqeaxasqo sayxas auyq aheq d~quasaxd am T axnljyj uy saTqeyxea

aqq 30 q s w rod . d q y ~ y q e ~ y e ~ e eqep 07 uyeqxad say%~nsy33yp ray lo

.asuanbasuoo ~ ~ m s

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qnq auyq uy quyod due qe aaou 02 pasodsyp sy 7eqq asxoj x o q q axyqua ay l

qou sy qy dqy~enqse uy aouys . ( , , Y ~ o ~ s , , ay l lases a m d~uounuoo axour sy

se l o ) s q u e x 6 y ,,Teyquaaod,, a m paugap d~yxoqoe3sraes >ad se seq auo ON

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-saoau q e m s a y a ~ n s y 3 ~ y p ~eoyxydua pue Tenqdasuoo srseq auos axe a x a w

.sayxepunoq Teuoyqeu ssoxoe x o q e ~

30 m o ~ 3 ay l adeqs X~auyoC quaydyoax pue xouop 30 ssyasyxaqsexeqo >em uy

ssasoxd aaTqsPxaauy d ~ q b y q e sy uoyaexbyur a7aqsxaquy ' q se3 aTppgq ay l $0

axaauos Teoyxydua aqa U I ' sdyqsuoyae~ax uoyqenba aT6uys aupmxa xo saTq

-eyxea (axou xo) om2 uaamaaq uoyqeyoosse Teoyqsyqeqs a m lo3 qsaq 'arnqexa

-?TI a m uy UOUMOO axOUI S T se 'qou pue axnqsnxqs axyqua a m 30 sxaqaurexed

a m aqmuyasa oq a s d o x d aM uoseax syqq x o ~ 'sauauoduoo xaylo uy sabupqs

(Teaaax xo) aaexauab ( T T T M uaqao eue) deu Tapou ay l 30 auauoduoo auo uy

sabuew .uoyqeoy3yoadsax qoea b u y m o ~ ~ o g amqsnxas axyqua aqa aqeuyqsaax

very recently that governments have developed institutions for mnitoring

the flow of remittances. It is also difficult to distinguish remittances

from other capital flows or from flows under import systems, such as the

"own import" system in Egypt (whereby individuals can import consumption

and capital goods from foreign earnings, bypassing any government regula-

tions providing such imports do not exceed L.E. 5000). To develop empiri-

cal series for remittances will necessitate looking closely at data from

the Central Banks, the Ministries of Economy and of Finance, and other

government agencies.

V I I . FROM MODELING TO POLICY ANALYSIS

Within the context of Figure 1 one can iden t i fy a var ie ty of

policy interventions t h a t could a f f e c t the flow of labor across nation-

a l boundaries. Indeed, each of the independent variables can be the

t a r g e t of government po l i c ies . The most appropriate representations of

policy interventions are those located close t o the b a r r i e r function,

where governments have the most d i r e c t leverage on population movement.

The f ive pa t t e rns of migration described i n the introduction of

t h i s paper provide informative, though marginally useful , clues f o r

generating an i n i t i a l assessment of possible policy interventions on

both s ides of the flows. Migration processes -developing countries

a r e su f f i c ien t ly d i s t i n c t i v e t h a t policy "importation"-- from other

pa t t e rns of migration-- can only be a point of departure i n any assess-

ment of policy options.

Typically, governments have found it d i f f i c u l t t o regulate ru ra l -

urban migration. The incentives f o r movement v i r t u a l l y a l l work i n the

d i rec t ion of the c i t y . Therefore, unless concerted e f f o r t s a r e made t o

enhance employment opportunit ies i n r u r a l areas o r t o equalize wages be-

tween r u r a l and urban centers , cityward movements i n t h e Middle East w i l l

not abate and may continue t o be a prime source of labor f o r foreign de-

s t ina t ions . Effor ts t o develop a l t e rna t ive urban centers and t o " red i s t r i -

bute" population are still i n the b luepr in t s tage.

The migration of unskilled and semiskilled workers (e.g., Mexicans,

Turks, Yugoslavs, Algerians, and Portuguese) provides b e t t e r ins igh t s

i n t o s e t s of appropriate policy interventions f o r regulat ing population

movements among developing countries. The Turks have opted f o r a

"rotating" principle, whereby groups of workers are sent to Europe and

38 are expected to return. They are viewed as "guests" by the receiving

country. The Algerians have opted for a similar approach but sought to

integrate their migration policies more closely with their overall rela-

39 tions with France.

To a large extent the present patterns of policy intervention in

the Middle East reveal similar features. Egypt officially supplies certain

categories of workers to other Arab countries and in turn contributes to

the setting of conditions for their employment. Egyptian nationals are

viewed as "guests," in accord with the Arab predisposition to regard the

citizens of the individual states as "brothers."

Policy interventions for regulating illegal migration are less re-

levant to the Middle East today since most movements are legal4' and those

that are not remain unpublicized lest they embarrass any of the Arab go-

vernments. Many states in the region maintain officially that there

ought not be any barriers to migration among Arab states. In actual fact

there can be strong barriers, most notably in Gulf countries.

Finally, there are the responses to refugees. Since the Palestinians

constitute a high portion of the total population of Kuwait, Jordan, and

to a lesser extent, Lebanon, the refugee issue has always been of concern

to all Arab governments. Assimilation has been a policy only in Jordan

and Kuwait. In other countries the Palestinians are considered primarily

as nationals in their own right. At the present time the predisposition

in the Middle East is not to distinguish between policies designed to reg-

ulate the movements of labor and those directed specifically to regulating

the flow of refugees. The disposition now, unlike the early 19501s, is to

focus on nationals and view the Palestinians as nationals of a state

to be.

In the Middle East migration typically plays a central role in the

development plans of countries that depend heavily on imported labor.

Even prior to the increase in oil prices in October 1973, these countries

had placed strong emphasis on migration-related policies. For example,

the First Five-Year Plan of Kuwait (1967/68-1971/72) stressed the need

for regulation of migrant workers and for the development of guidelines

covering general population issues,41 thus legitimizing the government's

concern for the political and economic implications of its continued re-

liance on migrants. Of the eleven goals specified in the plan four were

concerned directly with population and migration:

1. Increasing the Kuwaiti population to a majority status;

2. Assuring a Kuwaiti majority in the labor force;

3. Creating employment opportunities and expanding the size of the

citizen labor force;

4. Restricting the use of migrant labor except in highly skilled

and technical vocations, to be balanced by the exit of equivalent

numbers of unskilled foreign workers.

At the same time official Kuwaiti government policy was to provide

incentives for its young citizens to study abroad so as to eventually

constitute the required Kuwaiti majority in professional vocations.

Since the end of the first Plan period the government has regulated

further the flow of skilled manpower. As long as Kuwaiti salary scales

are several times that of other Arab states, as long as the government

seeks to collaborate economically and politically with its neighbors, and

as long as it tries to grow faster economically than its own population

increase will permit, a policy of reducing the net inflow of migrant

workers is unlikely. Partial restrictions may well evolve, and these

may be specific by country of origin, but so far restrictive policies

have not been of this kind.

Planners in Kuwait are intuitively aware of the social, economic,

and political implications of the demographic structure of the country,

and good statistics are kept, yet there is an insufficient appreciation

of the effects of restrictive or, alternatively, expansionary migration

policies. Indeed, the contradiction between the country's avowed com-

mitment of resources for Arab development42 and the restriction of Arab

workers is not fully understood. The persistence of conflicting objec-

tives, such as rapid economic development and manpower self-sufficiency,

highlights the problems generated by alien workers in Kuwait. The Ku-

waiti predicament is shared by other Arab countries that depend upon

citizens of other countries for their professional manpower.

For the donor countries, most notably Egypt, migration has tradi-

tionally been overlooked as an issue in development planning. At least

four sets of comprehensive plans have been formulated since Egypt adopted

planning as an instrument for defining economic priorities and develop-

ment objective^,^^ yet none refers to migration; and only the last plan draws attention to the importance of demographic factors in the country's

development. Aside from an occasional recognition of the potential im-

portance of Egypt's manpower as a national resource, its workers abroad

have usually been ignored. There are signs of change;44 in 1975 and 1976,

the government signed labor protocols with Libya and Qatar governing con-

ditions for the exportation of Egyptian labor. But aside from these two

agreements and a s e t of ad hoc procedures with o ther Arab countries Egypt

still has no concerted migration policy.

The growing interdependence among the countries of the Middle East,

created i n large p a r t by the increasing flow of Egyptian labor, has created

a s i t u a t i o n where the search f o r mutually benef ic ia l po l i c ies is becoming

more s a l i e n t . From the donor's perspective a t l e a s t four policy options

emerge, w i t h varying implications f o r the rec ip ients .

F i r s t is a policy of levying a t ax on individual migrant earnings.

This p o s s i b i l i t y has been suggested i n various c i r c l e s , but never ser ious ly

entertained e i t h e r i n the Middle East o r elsewhere. The d i f f i c u l t i e s of

r a i s ing and co l l ec t ing such a tax a r e extensive, given the problems of

control , monitoring migrant earnings, and devising means of extract ion.

Furthermore, such a tax would produce t h e same macro-economic e f f e c t s a s

capturing remittances.

Second is a b i l a t e r a l state-based agreement which would e n t a i l an

overa l l charge from the Egyptian government t o rec ip ient countries f o r

the employment of Egyptian manpower. That charge would depend upon the

composition of migration, i ts durat ion, the t a x s t ructure of the rec ip ien t

country, and possibly the value of remittances.

A t h i r d p o s s i b i l i t y is to develop a consortium of major i n t e r e s t s o r

pa r t i e s pa r t i c ipa t ing i n the flow of manpower, by industry, a c t i v i t y , o r

occupation, and devising exchange po l i c ies t o be agreed upon, and imple-

mented, a t the s t a t e level .

A four th policy option is t o formulate a ba r r i e r function on the

b a s i s of in ternat ional ru les and regulat ions t h a t e s tab l i sh state-based

contributions t o manparer development on a regional bas is . In t h i s event

a l l pa r t i c ipa t ing countr ies i n t h e Middle East w i l l become involved i n

devising the means and procedure of exchange.

Options two, three , and four place the migration i s sue i n an i n t e r -

dependence context and seek t o employ labor movements a s t h e foca l point

of an overa l l exchange among the countr ies of the Middle East. That ex-

change would be designed t o enable each country t o c a p i t a l i z e on its re-

spect ive c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n the broad p o l i t i c a l economy of the region.

The guiding p r inc ip le f o r defining the nature of such an exchange is t h e

following: t o f ind a procedure f o r channeling nat ional resources t o sup-

p o r t services t h a t benef i t t he region d i r e c t l y o r i n d i r e c t l y without

jeopardizing nat ional objec t ives . The underlying precept i s t o t a x human

c a p i t a l movement and t o organize physical c a p i t a l flows so a s t o a f f e c t

and/or maintain human c a p i t a l flows. (Figure 1 thus represents only t h a t

p a r t of an overa l l exchange framework t h a t pe r t a ins t o manpower flows.)

From the donor's point of view the major incent ive f o r such an ex-

change perspective-- a s opposed t o a pol icy taxing t h e earnings of indi-

vidual migrants o r a policy of ignoring the migrants-- i s t o p ro tec t i t s

pos i t ion of labor advantage. The importance of Egyptian knowledge and

s k i l l s i n the area may be of s h o r t durat ion unless at tendant i n s t i t u t i o n s

a r e expanded e f fec t ive ly . Unless t h a t r o l e i s protected and u t i l i z e d as

a nat ional resource, i t s usefulness f o r developmental purposes w i l l be

short- l ived.

From the perspective of the other Arab countr ies , the major incent ive

fo r such an exchange is the p o s s i b i l i t y of encouraging short- and long-

term s k i l l r ed i s t r ibu t ion i n the region. Planning f o r technological change

may be f a c i l i t a t e d with the assurance of orderly access t o regional s k i l l s .

Such an exchange will facilitate the ordered channeling of the existing

two-step flow of the transfer of technology in the Middle East -- from the advanced industrial states to Egypt and from Egypt to other Arab

countries -- and will lead to more rational approaches to the utilization of existing skills for national growth and regional development.

VIII. CONCLUSION

Labor migration in the Middle East is creating new bargaining power

for all countries involved. How that power is used will have not only

national implications, but regional implications as well. To fully

appreciate the demands thus placed upon all governments it is important

to understand the characteristic features of such movements, the inter-

dependence imbedded in the structure of migration among these countries,

and the basic policy options available to donors and recipients.

Migration among the countries of the Middle East is created by the

political economy of the region and, in turn, will generate greater

interdependence among sending and receiving comunities. The policy

options adopted by each must be coordinated such that the costs and be-

nefits of population movement will be equitably distributed. The ex-

changes are complex, and any unilateral interventions may result in greater

costs than benefits. All countries in the Middle East are beginning to

appreciate the prospects of c o m n gain from regulated access to the

region's labor force. This appreciation is a necessary step toward the

development of a more viable exchange.

Notes

1. This judgment is based on works included i n Robert Berrier

and Thomas Wolf, In ternal Migration: A Selected Bibliography

(Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Center f o r In ternat ional Studies,

Migration and Development Study Group Monograph, 1975) and on a

search f o r e n t r i e s on migration i n the NASIC computerized

l i b r a r y r e t r i e v a l system, which includes the da ta base of the

Smithsonian Science Information Exchange, prepublicat ion infor-

mation, and worldwide journal coverage i n s o c i a l science and

humanities subjects . This search was undertaken a t MIT, then

cross-checked with the l i b r a r y of the Carolina Population Cen-

ter, University of North Carolina.

2. An exce l l en t review of migration pa t t e rns and re la t ed analyses

was prepared by the United Nations, Department of Economic and

Social Affa i rs , The Determinants and Consequences of Population

Trends: New Summary of Findings on In terac t ion of Demographic,

Economic and Social Factors (New York: United Nations, 1973),

esp. Volume I.

3. Joan M. Nelson, Migrants, Urban Poverty, and I n s t a b i l i t y i n

Developing Nations (Cambridge, Mass.: Center f o r In ternat ional

Affa i rs , Harvard University, 1969); Joan M. Nelson, Temporary

Versus Permanent Cityward Migration: Causes and Consequences

(Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Center f o r In ternat ional Studies, Migration

and Development Study Group Monograph, 1976); Wayne A. Cornelius, Jr.

"The P o l i t i c a l Sociology of Cityward Migration i n Latin America:

Toward Empirical Theory," i n Francine F. Rabinovitz and F e l i c i t y

M. Trueblood (eds . ) , Latin American Urban Research, Volume I

(Beverly H i l l s , Cal i f . : Sage Publicat ions, 1971), pp. 95-147;

Wayne A. Cornelius, Jr., "The Cityward Movement: Some P o l i t i c a l

Implications," i n Douglas A. Chalmers (ed . ) , Changing Latin Amer-

i ca : New In te rp re ta t ions of Its P o l i t i c s and Society, Proceedings

of the Academy of P o l i t i c a l Science, Volume 30 (1972), pp. 27-41;

among others .

4. For example, see P.J. Imperato, "Nomads of the Niger," Natural

History, 81: LO (1972), pp. 60-69, 78-79.

5. Wayne A. Cornelius, Jr., I l l e g a l Mexican Migration t o the United

Sta tes : Recent Research Findings, Policy Implications, and Re-

search P r i o r i t i e s (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Center f o r In ternat ional

Studies, Migration and Development Study Group Monograph, 1977).

6. Nermin Abadan-Unat ( ed . ) , Turkish Migration (Leiden, t h e Netherlands:

E . J . B r i l l , 1974); P. Kliner, "The Theoret ical Models f o r Empirical

Sociological Research of In ternat ional Migration, Some Yugoslav

Papers." presented a t the 8th World Congress of t h e In ternat ional

Sociological Association, Lubljana, 1974; Ursala Mehrlander,

"Fr ic t ion and Conf l ic t Resulting from the 'Human Resource' Problem

i n Europe" (Boston: Contribution t o the Conference on Confl ict

and the Emerging In ternat ional System, May 4-6, 1977); Suzanne

Paine, Exporting Workers: The Turkish Case (Cambridge: Cambridge

University Press, 1974); O l i Hawrylyshyn, Is Ethnic i ty a Barr ier

t o Migration? The Yugoslav Experience (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT

Center fo r In ternat ional Studies, Migration and Development Study

Group Monograph, 1976).

7. Stephen Adler, Migration and In ternat ional Relations: The Case

of France and Algeria (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Center f o r In ter -

nat ional Studies, Migration and Development Study Group Monograph,

1977).

8. Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Martin Partington (eds.) , Taxing the Brain

Drain: A Proposal (Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Company,

1976); and Walter Adams (ed . ) , The Brain Drain (New York: MacMillan,

1970) . 9. See, f o r example, Table 8-6, e n t i t l e d , "Refugee Population of the

World by Area of Asylum and Origin, 1965-66," i n W i l l i a m Petersen,

Population, 2nd ed. (London: MacMillan, 1969), pp. 284-285; H.

Barakat, "Palest inian Refugees -- Uprooted Community Seeking Re-

pa t r i a t ion , " In ternat ional Migration Review, 7:2 (Summer 19731,

pp. 147-161.

10. Yugoslav migration is a notable exception. Thus these generaliza-

t ions .

11. Population movement is seldom, i f ever , t r ea ted i n t e x t s on poli-

t i c a l development o r on economic development. The Department of

P o l i t i c a l Science a t MIT o f f e r s a graduate specia l iza t ion i n

P o l i t i c a l Demography a s p a r t of the regular degree program. In

that context s tudents are exposed t o research and analysis of

population movements. But t h i s is an unusual option i n graduate

programs i n P o l i t i c a l Science.

12. See the essays i n Paul Y. Hammnd and Sidney Alexander (eds.) ,

P o l i t i c a l Dynamics i n the Middle East (New York: American Elsevier ,

1972) as i l l u s t r a t i v e of t h e p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t ' s perspectives

on the Middle East.

13. For example, Robert Mabro and Samir Radwan, The Industrialization

of Egypt 1939-1973 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1976); Charles A.

Cooper and Sidney S. Alexander (eds.), Economic Development and

Population Growth in the Middle East (New York: American Elsevier,

1972); among others are good illustrations of the economists' dis-

regard for labor migration in the region.

14. Peter Manfield, The Middle East: A Political and Economic Survey,

4th ed. (London: Oxford University Press, 1973); Elizabeth Monroe,

The Changing Balance of Power in the Persian Gulf (New York:

American Universities Field Staff, 1972). A notable exception is

Richard J. Ward, "The Long Run Employment Prospects for Middle

East Labor," Middle East Journal, 24x2 (Spring 1970). pp. 147-162.

15. This section is adapted from Nazli Choucri,

the Middle East: A Problem for Whom? (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Center

for International Studies, Migration and Development Study Group

Monograph, 1977).

16. See Choucri, The New Migration in the Middle East: A Problem for

Whom?

17. For a survey and analysis of these changes see Nazli Choucri,

International Politics of Energy Interdependence: The Case of

Petroleum (Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath, 1976), esp. Ch. 4.

18. The largest noncitizen group in Kuwait is composed of Jordanians

and Palestinians. Kuwaiti authorities view these two groups as

one, given the composition of Jordan and difficulties in differen-

tiating among Palestinian citizens of Jordan and Jordanian citizens.

The census of 1970 lists Jordanians and Palestinians as comprising

20% of the total population, an increase from the 16.6% enumeration

in the 1965 census. The next two groups are Iraqis and Iranians.

The former constituted 5.5% of the population in 1965 and decreased

slightly to 5.3% by the 1970 record. The latter also decreased

between 1965 and 1970, from 6.6% to 5.3%. At the same time the

increase of Egyptians was from 2.4% to 4.1%. This change, though

small, was prior to the marked growth of migration to Kuwait fol-

lowing the 1973 war. The growth in Egyptian migration in conjunc-

tion with the decline in Iraqi and Iranian migration is likely to

place Egyptians in a w r e dominant position in Kuwait.

19. This section is adopted from Choucri, The New Migration in the

Middle East: A Problem for Whom?

20. M.A. El-Badry, "Trends in the Components of Population Growth in

the Arab Countries of the Middle East: A Survey of Present Informa-

tion," Demography, 2 (1965), pp. 140-186.

21. A. Gritly, Population and Economic ILesources in U.A.R. (Cairo, 19621,

cited in El-Badry, "Trends in the Components of Population Growth in

the Arab Countries of the Middle East," p. 158.

22. Although this is a c o m n view, iterated also by El-Badry in "Trends

in the Components of Population Growth in the Arab Countries of the

Middle East," pp. 140-186, there has been some employment of relative-

ly unskilled labor in Libya.

23. See Choucri, International Politics of Energy Interdependence; for

a comparative analysis of changes in inter-Arab conflicts see Ijaz

Gilani, "The Politics of Integration and Disintegration: The Develop-

ment of Pragmatic Arabism from Khartoum to Rabat (1967-74). A Study

of Inter-Arab Relations" (Ph.D. dissertation, MIT Department of

Politi.ca1 Science, 1977).

24. The Economist (November 13, 1976), p. 85

25. Berrier and Wolf, Internal Migration.

26. One of the most noteworthy efforts is Michael P. Todaro, "A Model

of Labor Migration and Urban unemployment in Less Developed Coun-

tries," American Economic Review, 59:l (March 19691, pp. 138-148;

see Janet Rothenberg Pack, "Models of Population Movement and Ur-

ban Policy," IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics,

SMC-2:2 (April 1972), pp. 191-195, which reviews critically the

migration specification in J.W. Forrester, Urban Dynamics (Cambridge,

Mass.: MIT Press, 1969) and subsequent works by scholars in this

tradition. Perspectives on migration all have their origins in

the "push" and "pull" concepts and attendant formalizations that

owe a debt to Samuel Stouffer. See Samuel A. Stouffer, "Inter-

vening Opportunities: A ~heorfi Relating Mobility to Distance,"

American Sociological Review, 5:6 (December 1940), pp. 845-867;

for a review of these concepts see W.H. Hutt, "Immigration Under

Economic Freedom," Economic Issues in Immigration, Institute of

Economic Affairs, Readings in Political Economy, No. 5 (1970),

pp. 17-44.

27. Michael Greenwood, "Research on Internal Migration in the United

States: A survey," Journal of Economic Literature, 13:2 (June 1975),

pp. 397-433.

28. Michael Greenwood, "Simultaneity Bias in Migration Models: An

Empirical Examination," Demography, 12:3 (August 1975), pp. 519-536.

Theodore P. Lianos, "A Stocks and Flows Approach to Migration,"

American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 52:3 (August 1970).

pp. 442-443.

Peter Morrison, "Theoretical Issues in the Design of Population

Mobility Models," Environment and Planninq, 5:l (1973). pp. 125-134.

Michael Greenwood, "The Determinants of Labor Migration in Egypt,"

Journal of Regional Science, 9:2 (1969), pp. 283-290.

E.G. Drettakis, "The Employment of Migrant Workers in West Germany

1961-1972: ~n Econometric Analysis," Applied Economics, 8(1976),

pp. 11-18.

See Bhagwati and Partington (eds.), Taxing the Brain Drain.

Maurice Wilkinson, "European Migration to the United States: An

Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Labor Supply and Demand," Review

of Economics and Statistics, 52:3 (August 1970), pp. 272-279.

Yochanan Comay, "Migration of Professionals: An Empirical Analysis,"

Canadian Journal of Economics, 5:3 (August 19721, pp. 419-429.

Ruth A. Fabricant, "An Expectational Model of Migration," Journal of

Regional Science, 10:l (1970), pp. 13-24.

A discussion of these metholological issues and the algorithms in-

volved is presented in Appendix B (entitled "Methodology") of Nazli

Choucri and Rabert C. North, Nations in Conflict: National Growth

and International Violence (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1975),

pp. 302-322. This appendix is a detailed survey of methodological

problems in developing and estimating the parameters of a system of

simultaneous equations, and a synthesis of the relevant issues in

econometrics as they apply to political and social inquiry.

38. Ijaz Gilani, "International Migration: The Issue, the Immigration

and Emigration Strategies and Some Lessons for an Egyptian Migra-

ton Policy" (MIT Technology Adaptation Program, 1977).

39. Adler, Migration and International Relations.

40. Cornelius, Illegal Mexican Migration to the United States.

41. Information available in the West on Kuwait's development programs

is sketchy. The following observations draw upon Edmund Y. Asfour,

"Prospects and Problems of Economic Development of Saudi Arabia,

Kuwait, and the Gulf Principalities,".in Charles A. Cooper and

Sidney S. Alexander (eds.), Economic Development and Population

Growth in the Middle East (New York: American Elsevier, 19721,

pp. 385-387; Ragaei El Mallakh, Economic Development and Regional

Cooperation: Kuwait (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1968),

pp. 124-132; UN, United Nations Economic and Social Office in

Beirut, "Plan Formulation and Development in Kuwait," in UN-UESOB.

Studies on selected Development Problems in Various Countries in

the Middle East, 1968, pp. 11-24; Ragaei El Mallakh, "Planning in

a Capital Surplus Economy: Kuwait," Land Economics, November 1966,

pp. 425-440.

42. Choucri, International Politics of Energy Interdependence, Chapters 4,s.

43. It is unclear precisely how many plans Egypt has had. See Choucri,

The New Migration in the Middle East: Problem for Whom? for a review

of the evidence.

44. Nazli Choucri and R.s. Eckaus, "Interactions of Economic and Political

Change: the Egyptian Casel'(MIT Technology Adaptation Program, 1977).