middle east and central asia regional economic outlook -- jacques charaoui, imf
TRANSCRIPT
4
The Slump in Oil Prices is Expected to Persist
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
95% confidence interval 86% confidence interval
68% confidence interval Brent spot price
Brent futures
Brent Crude Oil Price
(U.S. dollars per barrel)
WEO Baseline Average Oil Price
2015: $51.6
2016: $50.4
5
Conflicts Are Spreading and Deepening, Putting a Heavy
Toll on the Region and Spilling Across Borders
16 million refugees
and internally
displaced
Afghanistan 3.4
Iraq 2.4
Libya 0.1
Syria 9.6
Yemen 0.3
Refugees account for 25 percent of population in
Lebanon and 20 percent in Jordan
7
Conflicts Have Caused Collapse in Economic Activity
and Mounting Fiscal Pressures in Iraq, Libya, Yemen
-2.1
-24.0
-0.2
0.0
-6.1
-28.1
7.1
2.0
11.6
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Iraq Libya Yemen
2014 2015 2016
Economic Growth in Conflict Countries (Percent of GDP)
8
Conflict Countries and Developments in Iran Drive
Changes in Oil Exporters’ Growth
Oil Exporters (Percent)
2.6
1.8
3.8
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2014 2015 2016
GCC and Algeria Iran Conflict countries MENAP oil exporters
9
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GCC
Non-GCC
GCC, October 2014 REO
Non-GCC, October 2014 REO
Fiscal Balance, 2012–20 (Percent of GDP)
Low Oil Prices Lead to Persistent Fiscal Pressures for Oil
Exporters
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
QAT KWT UAE IRQ IRN OMN ALG SAU BHR
2015 Fiscal breakeven price (LHS) Fiscal buffers (RHS)
Fiscal Buffers and Breakeven Oil Prices, 2015 (Years and U.S. dollars per barrel)
2015
WEO oil price
Dwindling Fiscal Space Underscores Need for Fiscal
Action
12
Recovery is Gaining Momentum but Some Countries Still
Lagging
Real GDP Growth (Percent)
EGY PAK
MAR
SDN
TUN LBN
JOR AFG
MRT
DJI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2015-1
6 A
vera
ge
2010-13 Average
13
Recovery Driven by Improved External Environment
and…
MENAP Oil Importers:
External Gains from Lower Oil Prices (Percent of GDP, 2015–16 average)
-1
0
1
2
3
2013 2014 2015 2016
Euro area
Advanced economies excluding euro area
Advanced Economies:
Real GDP Growth (Percent)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
MRT LBN JOR MAR TUN PAK EGY SDN
Average External Gain
1¼ percent of GDP
14
…Subsidy Reforms Combined With Lower Oil Prices
Creating Space for Growth-Enhancing Spending
Change in Budget Expenditure Components (Percent of GDP)
Capital
Subsidies
Subsidies
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Change 2010-13 Change 2013-16
Wages Subsidies and transfers Capital expenditures Other expenditures
15
Vulnerabilities Remain Significant Despite Lower Oil
Prices
Public Debt (Percent of GDP)
Remittances, 2014 (Percent of GDP)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1602010 2015
0
5
10
15
20
Egypt Jordan Lebanon Pakistan
Total From the GCC