michael orr director center for real estate theory and practice june 20, 2013 michael orr director...
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Michael OrrDirector
Center for Real Estate Theory and PracticeJune 20, 2013
Greater Phoenix Housing Market
Euphoria
Denial
Despair
HopeSkepticism
Optimism
EnthusiasmExhilaration
Unease
Pessimism
Panic
Capitulation
Relief
Optimism
Enthusiasm
The Market Cycle
© 2013 www.cromfordreport.com
Some Goofy Theories Out There
• The housing recovery is a sham• The banks own a large percentage of homes
and are keeping them off the market• Institutional investors and hedge funds are
dominating the market• Ordinary people are not buying homes, it’s
mostly investors with cash • First time home buyers are not participating• Home builders are deliberately slowing sales
Some Goofy Theories Out There
• The housing recovery is a sham• The banks own a large percentage of homes
and are keeping them off the market• Institutional investors and hedge funds are
dominating the market• Ordinary people are not buying homes, it’s
mostly investors with cash • First time home buyers are not participating• Home builders are deliberately slowing sales
Complete bollocks
The Real Situation – June 2013
• Chronic shortage of homes for sale• Sales prices have risen fast but likely to rest Jul-Sep• Loan delinquency back to normal in AZ• Foreclosures almost back to normal in Phoenix• Normal buyers gaining market share 61% -> 73%• Institutional investor impact exaggerated by media• New home demand up – but supply constrained• Shortages of labor and land impacting builders• Luxury market recovering from the bottom up
Loan Delinquency RatesBack to normal levels
AZ ranked 5th worst
AZ ranked 43rd
5.9%
9.4%
13.5%
16.3%
Normal level is 5%
ForeclosuresAlmost back to normal levels
long term trend line
Shadow Inventory – Maricopa County
• 1,220,778 housing units – (excluding multi-family)– 1,027,959 single family homes– 192,819 condo / townhomes
• How many are owned by banks?
Shadow Inventory – Maricopa County
• 1,220,778 housing units – (excluding multi-family)– 1,027,959 single family homes– 192,819 condo / townhomes
• How many are owned by banks?Answer = 3,668 (0.3%) = 3,024 SFR + 644 condos
893 are already sold and in escrow701 are available on MLSSo 2,074 are presently in “shadow inventory”
For-sale Housing SupplyVery low at low end of market
Tight in the middleAdequate at the high end
long term trend line
PricingRising almost everywhere
– especially at low end
long term trend line
outlook
A Few Places More Expensive Than Paradise Valley
• Ljubljana, Slovenia• Shanghai, China• Auckland, New Zealand• Istanbul, Turkey• Kiev, Ukraine• Sao Paolo, Brazil• Warsaw, Poland• Cape Town, South Africa• Dubai, UAE• Dublin, Ireland• Brussels, Belgium• Berlin, Germany• Montreal, Canada• Riga, Latvia• Krakow, Poland• Athens, Greece• Prague, Czech Republic• Copenhagen, Denmark• Miami, FL• Frankfurt, Germany• Barcelona, Spain• New Delhi, India• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil• Vienna, Austria• Amsterdam, Netherlands• Madrid, Spain
• Munich, Germany• Taipei, Taiwan• St. Petersburg, Russia• Luxembourg• Beijing, China• Milan, Italy• Helsinki, Finland• Tel Aviv, Israel• Rome, Italy• Toronto, Canada• Sydney, Australia• Vancouver, Canada• Stockholm, Sweden
• Moscow, Russia• New York, NY• Zurich, Switzerland• Mumbai, India• Tokyo, Japan• Singapore• Geneva, Switzerland• Paris, France• Hong Kong, China• London, England• Monte Carlo, Monaco
x2 to x4 x4 to x16x1 to x2
Miller Manor, Buckeye
Sold by Richmond American for $12,500 each
in Dec 2009
What Happened to the Completed Homes?
Current Status
1 Active Listing (+2 UCB)- Equity sale (just)
New HomesGrowing but still a very small part (11%)
of the market
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Outlook
• Chronic low inventory will continue• Prices will continue to rise but expect a summer lull• Investor buying will slow down as prices rise• Foreclosures will drop below normal levels• Short sales will continue but at much lower volumes• Confidence in the market will grow fast• Improving credit -> boomerang buyers• Builders cannot meet demand – expect sales metering• Luxury market stronger - improving from the bottom up
Michael OrrDirector
Center for Real Estate Theory and PracticeJune 20, 2013