michael milligan, nrel (speaking for a large team at ge, 3tier and nrel) westconnect, apr 21, 2009...

Michael Milligan, NREL

(speaking for a large team at GE, 3TIER and NREL)

Westconnect, Apr 21, 2009

Western Wind and Solar Integration

Study Update

Overview

• Goal – To understand the costs and operating

impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of wind, PV and concentrating solar power (CSP) on the grid

– Not the cost of wind or solar generation

• Scope of study– Operations, not transmission study

– Study year – 2017 to line up with WECC studies

– Simulate load and climate of 2004, 2005, 2006 forecast to 2017

Scenario Overview• Baseline – no new renewables• In-Area – each transmission area meets its target from sources

within that area– 30% wind, 5% solar in footprint (20% wind, 3% solar in the rest of WECC)– 20% wind, 3% solar (10% wind, 1% solar rest of WECC)– 10% wind, 1% solar (10% wind, 1% solar rest of WECC)

• Mega Project – least cost of delivered energy• Local Priority – similar to Mega Projects but with small bonus for

in-area sites• Plus other scenarios yet to be determined (high solar, high

capacity value, high geographic diversity)

Solar is 70% CSP and 30% PV. CSP has 6 hours of thermal storage.

Penetrations are by energy

Mesoscale Modeling of Wind Data - 3TIER

Modeling such a large footprint is challenging

• Many terabytes of data

• “Seams” issues occurred in initial runs– Large wind ramps that were not real– Validated against meteorological towers

• Corrections improved the realism of the wind speed databetter estimates of wind power generation

All Wind Sites

Excluded Wind Sites

Available Wind Sites

Wind Selected for 30% In-Area Scenario

30% Wind In Footprint20% Wind Out of Footprint

5,640 MW18.5 TWh

Legend:

Wind MWAnnual Energy

11,220 MW29.9 TWh

900 MW2.6 TWh

2,340 MW8.4 TWh

2,790 MW9.4 TWh

7,050 MW17.3 TWh

Total Installed MW: 29,940 MW (998 sites)

Total Wind Capital Cost:$59.9 B

Red dots = Pre-selectedBlue dots = New sites

In-Area Scenario - Solar

700 MW700 MW3.3 TWh

Legend:

CSPw/S MWPV MWSolar Annual Energy

1000 MW1000 MW5.3 TWh

200 MW100 MW0.5 TWh

0 MW300 MW0.4 TWh

400 MW300 MW1.6TWh

600 MW500 MW2.8 TWh

Total In-footprint Installed MW: 2900 CSP w/S2900 PVTotal In-footprint Energy Solar:15 TWhTotal Solar Capital Cost:$23 B

5% Solar In Footprint3% Solar Out of Footprint

30% In-Area Scenario Energy Summary

In Footprint

Out of Footprint

LoadTotal

Renewable

AreasEnergy(GWh)

Energy(GWh)

# Sites(Used/Available)

Energy(GWh)


Energy(GWh)


Energy(GWh)

Arizona 99,437 29,897 374 / 1091 3,735 10 / 38 1,548 10 / 16 35,180Colorado East 61,372 18,453 188 / 1673 2,252 7 / 58 1,038 7 / 13 21,743Colorado West 8,708 2,622 30 / 68 564 2 / 8 151 1 / 11 3,337New Mexico 31,260 9,382 93 / 3062 1,421 4 / 35 473 3 / 19 11,276Nevada 57,505 17,290 235 / 1591 2,161 6 / 45 773 5 / 10 20,224Wyoming 27,697 8,414 78 / 8912 0 0 / 0 420 3 / 10 8,834In Footprint 285,979 86,058 998 / 16397 10,133 29 / 184 4,403 29 / 79 100,594 35.2 %

LoadTotal

Renewable

AreasEnergy(GWh)

Energy(GWh)


Energy(GWh)


Energy(GWh)


Energy(GWh)

COB 1,759 394 6 / 155 294 1 / 22 142 1 / 2 830Idaho East 6,907 1,406 26 / 185 0 0 / 0 142 1 / 8 1,548Idaho Southwest 17,962 3,658 50 / 448 0 0 / 0 132 1 / 5 3,790Montana 14,143 2,873 35 / 1194 0 0 / 0 127 1 / 14 3,000Northern California 128,935 25,812 393 / 472 2,726 8 / 26 1,117 8 / 30 29,655Northwest 178,359 35,733 431 / 3195 0 0 / 0 1,645 13 / 54 37,378Southern California 224,197 44,890 483 / 1916 8,957 23 / 85 2,050 13 / 39 55,897Utah 38,022 7,658 91 / 554 937 3 / 24 303 2 / 14 8,898Out of Footprint 610,284 122,424 1515 / 8119 12,914 35 / 157 5,658 40 / 166 140,996 23.1 %

Wind CSP with Storage PV

Wind CSP with Storage PV

30% Wind, 5% Solar In Footprint20% Wind, 3% Solar Out of Footprint

30% In-Area Scenario Power Summary

Minimum Maximum Rating Rating Rating RatingAreas (MW) (MW) (MW) % Min %Max (MW) % Min % Max (MW) % Min % Max (MW) % Min % MaxArizona 6,995 23,051 11,220 160% 49% 1,000 14% 4% 1,000 14% 4% 13,220 189% 57%Colorado East 4,493 11,589 5,640 126% 49% 700 16% 6% 700 16% 6% 7,040 157% 61%Colorado West 712 1,526 900 126% 59% 200 28% 13% 100 14% 7% 1,200 169% 79%New Mexico 2,571 5,320 2,790 109% 52% 400 16% 8% 300 12% 6% 3,490 136% 66%Nevada 3,863 12,584 7,050 183% 56% 600 16% 5% 500 13% 4% 8,150 211% 65%Wyoming 2,369 4,016 2,340 99% 58% 0 0% 0% 300 13% 7% 2,640 111% 66%In Footprint 21,249 58,087 29,940 141% 52% 2,900 14% 5% 2,900 14% 5% 35,740 168% 62%

Minimum Maximum Rating Rating Rating RatingAreas (MW) (MW) (MW) % Min %Max (MW) % Min % Max (MW) % Min % Max (MW) % Min % MaxCOB 138 294 180 131% 61% 100 73% 34% 100 73% 34% 380 276% 129%Idaho East 460 1,365 780 170% 57% 0 0% 0% 100 22% 7% 880 191% 64%Idaho Southwest 1,188 3,592 1,500 126% 42% 0 0% 0% 100 8% 3% 1,600 135% 45%Montana 1,149 2,337 1,050 91% 45% 0 0% 0% 100 9% 4% 1,150 100% 49%Northern California 10,297 28,319 11,790 114% 42% 800 8% 3% 800 8% 3% 13,390 130% 47%Northwest 14,278 30,953 12,930 91% 42% 0 0% 0% 1,300 9% 4% 14,230 100% 46%Southern California 9,557 26,864 14,490 152% 54% 2,300 24% 9% 1,300 14% 5% 18,090 189% 67%Utah 2,263 7,274 2,730 121% 38% 300 13% 4% 200 9% 3% 3,230 143% 44%Out of Footprint 46,328 119,696 45,450 98% 38% 3,500 8% 3% 4,000 9% 3% 52,950 114% 44%

Load Wind CSP with Storage PVPenetration Penetration Penetration

Load Wind CSP with Storage PVPenetration Penetration Penetration

Total RenewablePenetration

Total RenewablePenetration

In Footprint

Out of Footprint

Penetration = Wind Plant MW Rating Load MW

IN-AREA SCENARIO STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Load, Wind, and Net Load

• Data for load, wind, and solar are time-synchronized

• For each MW of wind or solar that is generated, 1 MW of load need not be supplied by conventional generation

• Net load: Consumer load less– Wind generation– Solar generation

• Net load is what the system must operate to

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0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day

Lo

ad

(M

W)

BaseLoad

30%Wind

30%PV

30%CSP

30%L-W-S

Study Area Total, Load Wind, Solar and Net Load for Oct 8th 2006(30% In-Area Scenario)

Study Area Load Wind, Solar and Net Load for Oct 8

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Hour of Day

MW

Load

Wind

L-W-S

PV

CSP

With old data

With new data

Texas wind data validationCapacity Factor 2004 2005 2006

Actual 31.2% 33.0% 34.1%

Mesoscale 34.6% 32.1% 33.8%

536 MW in 5 wind plants

Another site wind validationMesoscale wind data capacity factor is off by 2-9%

Assessment of validation results

• NWP data has good overall match to expectation

• …but does not fully capture wind behavior and is not adequate for bankers or project assessment

• State of the art needs improving

• …but probably does a good job representing overall variability of wind over this large study footprint

Solar PV data – hourly and 10 min

Satellite cloud cover model from R. Perez at SUNY/Albany produced 10 km hourly solar radiation data. R. George at NREL generated 10 minute data using measured PV output data.

Benefits of aggregated wind: Actual wind output vs. One-Hour delta as a Percentage of Installed Wind Capacity (30% Scenario)

New Mexico (2006)

Study area aggregation tends to mitigate relative impact of large ramps

Distribution of Extreme Hourly Wind Deltas 2004 – 2006(30% In Area)

0

20

40

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-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%% of Installed Capacity

Nu

mb

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f 1-

Hr

Del

tas

ColoradoEast

ColoradoWest

NewMexico

Arizona

WyomingCentralEast

Nevada

FootPrint

WECC

Study Area Monthly Energy from Wind and Solar for 2004 – 2006 (30% In Area Scenario)

Study Area Percent Monthly Wind and Solar Energy for 2004 - 2006

0%

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month of Year

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oad

En

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Study Area Total Monthly Wind and Solar Energy for 2004 - 2006

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month of Year

To

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En

erg

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55% of energy from wind and

solar

04

05

06

30% is not always 30%

0%

5%

10%

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25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

% o

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gy

PV

CSPws

Wind

Study Area Average Daily Wind and Solar Energy - 2006

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

En

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PV

CSPws

Wind

0%

5%

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30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

% o

f T

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gy

PV

CSPws

Wind

Study Area Average Daily Energy from Wind and Solar for 04 - 06 (30% In Area Scenario)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

En

erg

y (

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h)

PV

CSPws

Wind

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

PV

CSPws

Wind

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

% o

f T

ota

l E

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gy

PV

CSPws

Wind

2004

2005

2006

2004

2005

2006

Study Area Average Energy by hour, from Wind and Solar

Study Area Average Percent Energy by hour, from Wind and Solar

Hour of Day

Hour of DayHour of Day

Hour of Day

State Monthly Energy from Wind and Solar for 2004 – 2006 (30% In Area Scenario)

Wyoming Percent Monthly Wind and Solar Energy for 2004 - 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec

Month of Year

% o

f L

oa

d E

ne

rgy

PV

CSPw s

Wind

Arizona Total Monthly Wind and Solar Energy for 2004 - 2006

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000


Month of Year

To

tal

En

erg

y (

GW

h)

PV

CSPw s

Wind

Arizona Percent Monthly Wind and Solar Energy for 2004 - 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Month of Year

% o

f L

oad

En

erg

y

PV

CSPw s

Wind

68% of energy from wind and solar

Wyoming Total Monthly Wind and Solar Energy for 2004 - 2006

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200


Month of Year

To

tal E

nerg

y (

GW

h)

PV

CSPw s

Wind

Arizona Wyoming

Over 50% of energy from wind and solar

Study Area Wind Output Duration and Penetration (30%)

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0 876 1752 2628 3504 4380 5256 6132 7008 7884 8760

Hour of Year

Win

d O

utp

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(MW

)

0%

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40%

60%

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100%

120%

Ins

tan

tan

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Pe

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tra

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%)

Study Area Wind (30%)

Wind Penetration

Study Area PV Output Duration and Penetration (1.5%)

-500

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0 876 1752 2628 3504 4380 5256 6132 7008 7884 8760

Hour of Year

PV

Ou

tpu

t (M

W)

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

Inst

anta

neo

us

Pen

etra

tio

n (

%)

Study Area PV (1.5%)

PV Penetration

Study Area CSPws Output Duration and Penetration (3.5%)

-500

0

500

1000

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2000

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3000

0 876 1752 2628 3504 4380 5256 6132 7008 7884 8760

Hour of Year

CS

Pw

s O

utp

ut

(MW

)

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

Ins

tan

tan

eo

us

Pe

ne

tra

tio

n (

%)

Study Area CSPws (3.5%)

CSPws Penetration

Study Area Net Load Duration Curves

-10000

0

10000

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50000

60000

0 876 1752 2628 3504 4380 5256 6132 7008 7884 8760

Hour of Year

Ne

t L

oa

d L

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MW

)

Study Area Baseline

Study Area L-W-S (10%)



Net Load Duration, Wind and Solar Penetration Over Year 2006

Min load 22200 MW

CSP output for 60% of

the year

No PV production for half the year

113% Instantaneous penetration, based on

load MW

Scenario Peak L-W-S

Baseline 56,402 MW

10% 55,199 MW

20% 52,293 MW30% 49,980 MW

Below existing min load ~57% of year for 30% scenario

Scenario Peak L-W-S

Baseline 20,489 MW

10% 14,543 MW

20% 6,024 MW30% -2,887 MW

11.7%

7.3%

24 hours with over 100% penetration

Study Area Net Load Duration for 2004, 2005, 2006 (30% In Area Scenario)

Study Area Net Load Duration Curves for 2004 - 2006

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

24000

3504 3679.2 3854.4 4029.6 4204.8 4380 4555.2 4730.4 4905.6 5080.8 5256

Hour of Year

Ne

t L

oa

d L

ev

el (

MW

)

L-W-S 2006

L-W-S 2005

L-W-S 2004


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0 876 1752 2628 3504 4380 5256 6132 7008 7884 8760

Hour of Year

Ne

t L

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eve

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L-W-S 2006

L-W-S 2005

L-W-S 2004

Approx min load line


32000

36000

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44000

48000

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0 87.6 175.2 262.8 350.4 438 525.6 613.2 700.8 788.4 876

Hour of Year

Ne

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MW

)

L-W-S 2006

L-W-S 2005

L-W-S 2004


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7884 7971.6 8059.2 8146.8 8234.4 8322 8409.6 8497.2 8584.8 8672.4 8760

Hour of Year

Ne

t L

oa

d L

ev

el (

MW

)

L-W-S 2006

L-W-S 2005

L-W-S 2004

Bottom decile hours

Top decile hours

Median hours

2005 min load (22527 MW)2004 min load (21533 MW)

2006 min load (22200 MW)

Below min load 50% of year

Below min load 58% of year

1 % of yearly hours

Total Area Oct Load and Wind Average Daily Profiles

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Wind

Total Area Jul Load and Wind Average Daily Profiles

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Load

Wind

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Hour of Day

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Win

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Load

Wind

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Win

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Load

Wind

Study Area Load and Wind Average Daily Profiles By Seasonal Month for 2006 (30% In Area Scenario)

Jan Apr

JulOct

Study Area CSPws and PV Average Daily Profiles By Seasonal Month for 2006 (30% In Area Scenario)

Total Area Jan Load and Solar Average Daily Profiles

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PV

CSPws

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Load

PV

CSPws

Total Area Jul Load and Solar Average Daily Profiles

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0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Hour of Day

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(MW

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Load

PV

CSPws

Total Area Oct Load and Solar Average Daily Profiles

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PV

CSPws

JanApr

Jul Oct

Study Area Total Load, Wind and Solar Variation Over Month of April

(30% in Area Scenario)

Substantial increase in net load variability driven largely by wind variation

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1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Day

MW

Ld(Base)

Wd(30%)

PV(30%)

CSP(30%)

L-W-S(30%)

Minimum net load: –2887 MWInstantaneous penetration: 112%

WECC Total Load, Wind and Solar Variation Over Month of April


Impact of wind on WECC net load less dramatic over a larger control area

0

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1-Apr 8-Apr 15-Apr 22-Apr 29-Apr

Day

MW

Ld(Base)

Wd(30%)PV(30%)

CSP(30%)L-W-S(30%)

Minimum net load 20,525 MW Instantaneous penetration: 73%

Variability Analysis - Deltas

68%

99.7%

95%

μ – 3σ μ – 2σ μ – σ μ μ + σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ

68%

99.7%

95%

μ – 3σ μ – 2σ μ – σ μ μ + σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ

34%34%

13.5% 13.5%2.35% 2.35%

68%

99.7%

95%

μ – 3σ μ – 2σ μ – σ μ μ + σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ

68%

99.7%

95%

μ – 3σ μ – 2σ μ – σ μ μ + σ μ + 2σ μ + 3σ

34%34%

13.5% 13.5%2.35% 2.35%

• Statistics used to characterize variability:– Delta (∆) – The difference between successive data points in a series, or

period-to-period ramp rate. • Positive delta is a rise or up-ramp• Negative delta is a drop or down-ramp

– Mean () – The average of the deltas (typically zero within a diurnal cycle)

– Sigma (σ) – The standard deviation of the deltas; measures spread about the mean

For a normal distribution of deltas, σ is related to the percentage of deltas within a certain distance of the mean

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

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-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Load Delta (MW)

Win

d D

elta

(M

W)

(30%

Sce

nar

io)

Fall

Winter

Spring

Summer

Wind Deltas vs Load Deltas by season for 2004-2006 (30% in Area Scenario)

(1199, -5926)

(-4125, 2950)

Increased L-W up-ramps

Increased L-W down-ramps Load and wind

deltas offset

Load and Wind deltas offset

Q1

Q2

Q4Q3

(2985, -4372)

-7000 MW

-6000 MW

-5000 MW

-5000 MW

-6000 MW

-7000 MW

(186, 7528)

29 hours (342 GWh) where wind pushes L-W delta beyond largest load delta

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-2000

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2000

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-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Load Delta (MW)

Win

d D

elta

(M

W)

(30%

Sce

nar

io)

Spring

Wind Deltas vs Load Deltas by season for 2004-2006


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Load Delta (MW)

Win

d D

elta

(M

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(30%

Sce

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io)

Winter

-8000

-6000

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-2000

0

2000

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6000

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-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Load Delta (MW)

Win

d D

elta

(M

W)

(30%

Sce

nar

io)

Summer

-8000

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-2000

0

2000

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6000

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-5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Load Delta (MW)

Win

d D

elta

(M

W)

(30%

Sce

nar

io)

Fall

Increased L-W up-ramps

Increased L-W down-ramps

Load and wind deltas offset

Load and wind deltas offset

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

0

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an

d N

et

Lo

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De

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(M

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To

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Lo

ad

an

d N

et

Lo

ad

(MW

)

Study Area Average Daily Profile of Deltas Over Year 2006

(30% In Area Scenario)

(Avg. +/- sigma, Minimum, Maximum)

Hour of Day

7874 MW

-6851 MW

Load DeltasNet Load DeltasTotal LoadTotal Net Load

Load DeltasNet Load DeltasTotal LoadTotal Net Load

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Day

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LoadWind (30%)PV (30%)CSPws (30%)L-W-S (30%)

Study Area Total Load, Wind and Solar Variation for Selected Days(30% In Area Scenario)

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L-W-S Maximum Positive Delta Day - Jan 1 2006 L-W-S Maximum Negative Delta Day - Mar 26, 2006

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Minimum Net Load Day - Apr 15 2006 Solar Maximum Negative Delta Day - Jan 20 2006

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Summary Statistics for 2004 - 2006

IN-AREA SCENARIO OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS

Study Assumptions•2017 Fuel Prices:

•Coal ~ $2.00/MBtu

•Natural Gas ~$8.00/MBtu

•Carbon Tax : $30/ton

•Energy Velocity Database

•~24 GW capacity added 2009-2017 timeframe to maintain reserve margins (~11GW not in plans)

•NERC ES&D Peak Load Projections

•Economically Rational, WECC-wide Commitment and Dispatch

Forecast Error - WECC

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

JAN

FEB

MAR

APRM

AYJU

NJU

LAUG

SEPOCT

NOVDEC

Annual

Fo

rec

as

t E

rro

r (%

)

WECC 2004

WECC 2005

WECC 2006

Annual Forecast Error

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Ari

zon

a

Co

lora

do

Ea

st

Co

lora

do

We

st

Ne

wM

ex

ico

Ne

va

da

Wy

om

ing

Ce

ntr

alE

as

t

CO

BT

ran

sm

iss

ion

Hu

b

Ida

ho

Ea

st

So

uth

we

stW

yo

min

g

Ida

ho

So

uth

we

stI

da

ho

Po

we

r

Mo

nta

na

No

rth

we

ste

rnE

ne

rgy

No

rth

ern

Ca

lifo

rnia

No

rth

we

st

So

uth

ern

Ca

lifo

rnia

Gro

up

Uta

h

Ins

ide

Ou

tsid

e

WE

CC

Fo

rec

as

t E

rro

r (%

)

2004

2005

2006

Forecast Error

•Forecast error varied annually and regionally

•Reduced forecast 10% in study footprint and 20%outside•“R” scenarios

•Also considered perfect forecasts•“P” scenarios

Spot Price Duration Curve - 2006

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Hours

Sp

ot

Pri

ce

($

/MW

h)

No Wind

I 30

I 30 P

I 30 R

Generation by Type - Study Area - 2006 shapes

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

CC GEO GT HY NUC PSH ST ST-COAL

CSP PV WIND

Ge

ne

rati

on

(G

Wh

)

No Wind

Pre R

I 10 R

I 20 R

I 30 R

Generation by Type - Study Area - 2006 shapes

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000


CSP PV WIND

Ge

ne

rati

on

(G

Wh

)

No Wind

Pre R

I 10 R

I 20 R

I 30 R

Combined cycle units

most displaced

Generation by Type - WECC - 2006 shapes

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


CSP PV WIND

Ge

ne

rati

on

(G

Wh

)

No Wind

Pre R

I 10 R

I 20 R

I 30 R

Combined cycle units

most displaced

Pumped storage has moderate increase

Annual Number of Starts - Study Area - 2006 shapes

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

CC GT ST ST-COAL

Nu

mb

er

of

Sta

rts

No Wind

Pre R

I 10 R

I 20 R

I 30 R

Operation Savings - WECC- 2006 shapes

0

5

10

15

20

25

Pre R I 10 R I 20 R I 30 R

Sav

ing

s ($

Bil

lio

ns)

Emission Reductions - WECC - 2006 shapes

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

NOX AMOUNT (TONS) SOX AMOUNT (TONS) CO2 AMOUNT (KTONS)

Em

issi

on

Red

uct

ion

s (t

on

s o

r K

ton

s) Pre R

I 10 R

I 20 R

I 30 R

Weekly Operational Analysis

•Examined hourly operation for two specific weeks in mid-April and mid-July

•Results show hourly variation in generation by type as renewable penetration increases

Week of April 10th - Study Area

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

MON APR 10 TUE APR 11 WED APR 12 THU APR 13 FRI APR 14 SAT APR 15 SUN APR 16

MW

Load Wind + CSP + PV 10% R

Wind + CSP + PV 20% R Wind + CSP + PV 30% R

Week of April 10th - Study Area

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000


MW

Load + Exports Load + Exports - W/C/P 10% R

Load + Exports - W/C/P 20% R Load + Exports - W/C/P 30% R

Study Area Dispatch - Week of April 10th - 10%R

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


MW

Study Area Dispatch - Week of April 10th - No Wind

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


MW

Nuclear Steam Coal Wind

Solar CSP w/ Storage Solar PV Combined Cycle

Gas Turbine Pumped Storage Hydro Hydro


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


MW


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000


MW

Week of July 10th - Study Area

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

MON JUL 10 TUE JUL 11 WED JUL 12 THU JUL 13 FRI JUL 14 SAT JUL 15 SUN JUL 16

MW

Load + Exports Load + Exports - W/C/P

Load + Exports - W/C/P Load + Exports - W/C/P

Study Area Dispatch - Week of July 10th - No Wind

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


MW

Nuclear Steam Coal Wind

Solar CSP w/ Storage Solar PV Combined Cycle

Gas Turbine Pumped Storage Hydro Hydro

Study Area Dispatch - Week of July 10th - 10%R

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


MW


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


MW


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000


MW

Operational Observations

•Forecasts are critical

•Significant variations in impact for the same wind variability with different forecasts

•No significant issues at penetrations up to 20% wind in study footprint and 10% wind outside

•Impact more severe at 30% wind inside and 20% wind outside

•Operational impact dependent on what your neighbor is doing

ADDITIONAL SCENARIOS BEING ANALYZED CURRENTLY

Rationalize Site Distribution & Transmission

•Refine distribution identified by global algorithm to rational components

•Use whole 30 MW wind plants•Use whole 100 MW solar plants•Use typical transmission rating

• 345 or 500 kV AC for bulk interties • 1000 or 1600 MW/circuit, respectively • Select kV to match voltage level in vicinity

• HVDC for long distance and high power • i.e. > 2 circuits of EHV AC

• Select in-footprint routes• Disregard/consolidate small incremental ties to local transmission voltage level (e.g. 230kV/400 MW)

+20

00 (

300)

2 x

345k

V+

2000

(60

0)2

x 34

5kV

+320

0 (8

00)

2 x

500k

V

13770(+11430)

1890(-9330)

2490(-3150)

4350(+1560)

90(-810)

1440(-5610)

Mega Project Scenario

+360

0 (2

400

)MW

600k

V D

C B

ipol

e

+3200 (1600)2 x 500kV

Total Wind MW: 24040 (801 sites) [$46.2 B]Change from in-area MW: -5940 (-197 sites) (-$11.9B)(-20%)Total Solar MW:5700 MW (-100 MW) [-$0.4 B]Total Additional Transmission:+ 6900 GW-miles [+$11 B]Total Change in Capital Cost: - $1B

+2000 (900)2 x 345kV

+1000 (300)1 x 345kV

Legend:

Final Wind MW (Change from In-Area MW)New Transmission MW (GW-miles)

+160

0 (4

00)

1 x

500k

V

Local Priority Scenario

7380(+5040)

7710(-3510)

4650(-990)

2970(+180)

570(-330)

3450(-3600)

+1600 (800)1 x 500kV

+10

00 (

150)

1 x

345k

V

+1000 (450)1 x 345kV

+10

00 (

300)

1 x

345k

V

Total Wind MW: 26160 (872 sites) [$52.3 B]Change from in-area MW: -3780 (-126 sites) (-$7.6B)(-13%)Total Solar MW:5700 MW (-100 MW) [-$0.4 B]Total Additional Transmission:+ 2100 GW-miles [+$3.4 B]Total Change in Capital Cost:-$4.2B (-7.0%)

Legend:

Final Wind MW (Change from In-Area MW)New Transmission MW (GW-miles)

Next Steps

• Additional analysis of In-Area scenario

• Reserve requirements

• Quasi-steady-state analysis

• Analyze Mega-Project and Local Priority scenarios

• Develop two more proposed scenarios

Information

• WWSIS– Website at– http://westconnect.com/planning_nrel.php– Western wind dataset at:– http://www.nrel.gov/wind/westernwind/ – Solar (and wind) dataset at:– http://mercator.nrel.gov/wwsi/

• Questions?– Debra Lew– [email protected] – 808-543-7701

http://westconnect.com/init_wwis.php

http://www.nrel.gov/wind/westernwind/

http://mercator.nrel.gov/wwsi/

mailto:[email protected]

michael milligan, nrel (speaking for a large team at ge, 3tier and nrel) westconnect, apr 21, 2009...

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