mfs article review
TRANSCRIPT
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Management of Financial Services
Article: Critical Review
Submitted to:
Prof. Prem Sibbal
Submitted By:
Sourish Dutta
Sec: B
46/2010
PGDM (General)
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Debt Debate for Dummies: Six Keys to Understanding
the Issue
The American government is broke. Rather, like many American families, it uses borrowed
money to operate on a daily basis. But unlike the average American, the government doesn't
ask a bank or credit card company for more money; it can sell more debt on the open market
and raise its own credit limit.
The government has sold debt almost since the beginning of the Republic. You can buy it in
the form or Savings Bonds. Institutions, governments and professional investors from around
the world also buy debt, but in much larger quantities. The Social Security system owns the
most U.S. debt. Foreign governments, including China, own 31 percent.
With government spending and taxes key political issues, the Republicans and the Democrats
cannot agree on how much more money to spend and borrow. If an individual wanted to
borrow more, he would ask his bank to raise his credit limit. The government can do this by
getting Congress to raise the debt ceiling.
And so White House and Congressional negotiators have been in closed-door negotiations for
months trying to figure out a way to change the way the government spends money before
they agree to borrow more.
Here's a simple guide to some key points of the debate:
How much money does the government owe?
The U.S. government owes more than $14.34 trillion dollars and counting. The average
citizen's share of that debt is about $46,000. The government reached the legal debt ceiling on
May 16, when it owed $14.29 trillion, but the Treasury Department has averted default by
placing IOUs in some federal worker retirement accounts. On Aug. 2, this will no longer be
permissible, according to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Congress has to approve
raising the debt ceiling before then in order for the government to be able to pay all its bills.
How much more does the government need to borrow?
The figures are astronomical. The government pays more than $1 billion each day just on
interest on the debt. Overall federal spending is more than $10 billion a day for all the
services the government provides.
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What happens if the government defaults?
This is a subject of some debate. Many Republicans have argued that if the government goes
beyond Aug. 2 without raising the debt ceiling, Treasury will simply have to continue paying
its creditors and stop funding other programs. But others argue that going past the Aug. 2
deadline would send a bad signal to global markets, put the U.S. credit rating in jeopardy,
lead to higher interest rates, and kick off a worldwide recession.
David Walker, the former Comptroller General of the U.S. who is now a cut-the-deficit
evangelist, said Thursday that people who own bonds will get their money. But there will be
a $4 billion daily gap that the Treasury Secretary must close. Federal workers and contractors
might not get paid.
Others are less alarmist. Sen. Jeff Sessions, the top Republican on the Senate Budget
Committee, vowed recently that the U.S. government, even after Aug. 2, will pay its bills tocreditors. The question then becomes, however, what will it not pay and whether paying
creditors but not government employees or businesses that work with the government might
be considered a default?
"Choices won't be about, Do we means-test retirement for the wealthiest, but do we make
dramatic cuts in vital programs?" said Ryan McConaghy of the centrist Third Way.
Why not just raise taxes on the rich?
Economists agree that there is no silver bullet to solve the problem of the debt. You can't just
raise taxes and make it go away.
According to McConaghy, if the government taxed every dollar that every American made
over his or her first $250,000 in income, it still would not solve the problem.
There is some indication that policymakers want to use this opportunity to simplify the tax
code. Americans pay a high tax rate, but enjoy breaks for everything from having children to
charitable donations to interest they pay on their mortgage. The tax rate could be lowered if
those loopholes were removed. But more people making less money might have to pay taxes.
The same works for companies. They benefit from loopholes for research and development,
certain investments and more. Removing those loopholes is perhaps more likely, but it will
not solve the problem of the debt. Add to this the unity of Republicans against any tax hikes.
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\Why not just cut government spending?
Just like raising taxes on the rich won't work, cutting spending alone won't work either. The
retiring Baby Boom generation will start collecting Medicare and Social Security benefits.
Just as most Republicans reject tax increases, most Democrats have rejected cuts to these
programs. But short of scaling back benefits, annual cost of living increases, or raising the
retirement age, the programs will soon spiral out of control. The trustees for Medicare have
said that in its current trajectory, the program's hospital insurance account will run out of
money in 2024.
How can the problem be solved?
Both sides, Republicans and Democrats, are probably going to have make very tough
decisions. For Democrats that may mean cuts to entitlement programs. And for Republicans
that may mean tax hikes. Many believe that both parties have to take part in the solution toget the public on board with it.
"We're going to need both revenue s and spending cuts. Certainly at the higher end of the
scale, people are going to have to accept higher taxes," said McConaghy. "They either leap
together or they don't leap at all, but if they don't leap at all, the markets will push them into
much more difficult choices," said McConaghy.
But that brings us to the closed-door meetings at the White House. President Obama and
House Speaker John Boehner and their respective cohorts are trying to find an agreement that
averts default -- and may make everyone equally unhappy.