mexico political update - may 2012

Mexico Political

Update

May 2012

Nuricumbo + Partners

Audit • Finance • Risk • Strategy • Business Development

Political Parties and Coalitions

Statistics and Preference Polls

Contact

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General Overview

Outline

Mexico is a Representative Democratic

Republic conformed by 32 Autonomous States

(31 States and one Federal District).

• Both the Federation and the States adjust to

the model for the division of powers and

separation of functions, divided into

Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Branch.

Source: Electoral Federal Institute, 2012

Political Organization

General Overview

• The Executive Branch is conformed by the President, elected by vote for a period of 6years. Under no circumstance the President may be re-elected.

• The Legislative Branch is vested upon the Union Congress, formed by a Lower Chamberof 500 deputies and an Upper Chamber conformed by 128 senators.

• The Judicial Branch is vested upon the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation, made upby eleven ministers elected by the vote of two thirds of the Upper Chamber members.

• Elections must be carried out through universal, free, secret and direct voting.


Political Organization

General Overview

Countrywide Nominated Positions: 2,127

• President

• 500 Federal Deputies

• 128 Federal Senators

• 7 State Governors

• 579 Local Deputies

• 876 Councils

• 16 Delegation Councils (Mexico City)

• 20 Municipal Boards

Election Date: July 1st, 2012

Federal Pre-campaign

Dec 18th – Feb 15th

Federal InterCampaign

Feb 16th – Mar 29th

Federal Campaign

Mar 30th – Jun 27th

Elections July 1st

EntryPresident: Dec 1st

Others: Sept 1st

Agenda 2011 - 2012


General Overview

New Alliance Party

National Action Party

Compromise for Mexico

ProgressiveMovement

Source: Senate of the Republic, 2012; Deputies Chamber, 2012; Newspaper “El Universal”, 2012.

Political Position: Center• Deputies: 141 / 500• Senators: 50 / 128

• Governors: 9 / 32 (3 PRD Coalition)

Political Position: Center Right• Deputies: 261 / 500• Senators: 41 / 128• Governors: 20 / 32

Political Position: Left• Deputies: 90 / 500• Senators: 33 / 128

• Governors: 6 / 32 (3 PAN Coalition)

Political Position: Center• Deputies: 7 / 500• Senators: 0 / 128• Governors: 0 / 32

Election 2012: Parties and Coalitions’ Current Situation


Institutional Revolutionary Party

National Action Party

Democratic Revolution Party

Others -

Governor Election -

Political Map April 2012

Source: www.eleccion2012mexico.com, 2012 and Newspaper “El Universal” 2012.


http://www.eleccion2012mexico.com/







Josefina Vazquez Mota• Party: National Action Party• Education: Economy / Institutional Studies• Former Position: Minister of Education

• Book: Our Opportunity: a Mexico for Everyone, 2011.• Website: josefina.mx/

Enrique Peña Nieto• Party: Institutional Revolutionary Party• Education: Law / MBA• Former Position: Governor of State of Mexico

• Book: Mexico, the Great Hope, 2011.

• Website: www.enriquepenanieto.com/

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador• Party: Democratic Revolution Party• Education: Political Science• Former Position: Governor of Federal District

• Book: The Mafia that took over Mexico (2010).

• Website: http://www.amlo.si/

Presidential Candidates

Gabriel Quadri De la Torre• Party: New Alliance• Education: Civil Engineering / Master in Economy• Former Position: General Manager Ecosecurities

• Book: Public Policies: Sustainability and Environment

• Website: www.nueva-alianza.org.mx/

Source: Newspaper “El Universal” 2012.


http://www.enriquepenanieto.com/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.nueva-alianza.org.mx/



Pillar 1: Security

• Guarantee the rule of law

• Integral security through prevention,

control and punishment.

•Modernization of the army forces

• Reinforcement of health and educative

services.

• Increase of Federal Police up to 150,000

elements.

Pillar 2: Welfare

• Construction of 1,500 high schools and 150

universities.

• Increase from 8 to 16 million scholarships

• Ensure 1% of GDP for Science and

Technology.

• Creation of the Ministry of Culture

• Construction of more hospitals

countrywide.

Main Proposals: National Action Party

Source: josefina.mx/, 2012.


Pillar 3: Productivity

• Development of Balanced budget policies

• Realistic and actual Labor Reform

• Development of new Technological-base

incubators.

• Boost the credit for Micro and Small-sized

Companies.

• Minority and selective private investment in

PEMEX (National Oil Company).

Pillar 4: A Better Mexico

• Treatment for 100% of waste water

• Boost of wind energy sources

• Reinforcement of the US – Mexican bilateral

relation.

• New incentives for green technologies and

environmental conservation.

• Defend the rights and interests of Mexicans

abroad.

Main Proposals: National Action Party

Source: josefina.mx/, 2012.


1. Recovery of Peace and Freedom

• Reduce kidnapping and homicides to 50%, reducing extortions and trafficking; develop a

National Strategy to reduce violence.

2. An Inclusive Mexico without Poverty

• Set conditions to allow 15 million people to overcome poverty and the disappearance of food

poverty; guarantee women, indigenous and disabled people’s rights.

3. More and Better Jobs

• Triple the economic growth of the last decade and create more than one million jobs per

year; increase investment in infrastructure.

Main Compromises: Compromise for Mexico Coalition

Source: http://www.enriquepenanieto.com, 2012.









4. Quality Education for Everyone

• Offer more and qualified education for everyone, reaching an universal cover from

kindergarten to high-school level; at least, cover 45% of higher education; and being the 1st

place of the PISA standard (Program for International Student Assessment) in Latin America.

5. Recovery of the Mexican Leadership in the World

• Consolidate Mexico as emerging power and contribute in the solution of global

problems, such as climate change or drugs, people and weapon trafficking.

6. Efficient Government

• Offer certainty and results to the people in order to achieve the mentioned compromises.

Main Compromises: Compromise for Mexico Coalition

Source: http://www.enriquepenanieto.com, 2012.









1. Promote the Revolution of Conscience and a Critical Thinking

• Recover the sense of community; restore political ethics through the regulation of wages;

boost an Integral Human Rights Vision without hierarchies; defend cultural diversification.

2. Orient the State to serve the People

• Develop of the productive capacity; increase resources for

education, health, housing, environment and social affairs; renegotiate the external debt; set

up a new federalism.

3. Democratization of the Media

• Create autonomous institutions aimed to regulate radio and TV broadcasting; promote the

creation of cultural and educative shows; guarantee Internet access as information right.

Main Proposals: Progressive Movement

Source: http://www.amlo.si/ 2012.


http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

Source: http://www.amlo.si/ 2012.

4. Create a New Economy

• Labor protection and promote formal jobs; fight extortion; promote democracy at the

Unions; promote the insertion of young people into the labor market.

5. Fight Monopolies

• Promote Law reforms (Economic Federal Law); promote competitive pricing; create

specialized court houses; broaden the training for judges.

6. Fight Corruption

• Reduce salary of Government officials; impose the accountability of Government officials;

remove additional cash bonus of Government officials; fight bravery.

Main Proposals: Progressive Movement


http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

http://www.amlo.si/

Source: www.nueva-alianza.org.mx/ 2012.

1. Quality and Equity of Education

• Reduce the educative lag and increase schooling levels; decrease inequalities among regions

and social groups; increase educative quality; strengthen scientific / technological research.

2. Labor Opportunities

• Promote economic expansion and jobs creation; broaden labor offer; facilitate the access to

labor market and fight informality; broaden social and economic benefits.

3. The Family as the Central Axis of Society

• Promote conditions that facilitate coexistence between groups and persons; promote values

such as respect, tolerance, solidarity; promote actions that benefit single mothers.

Main Proposals: New Alliance











4. Equality and Dignity

• Promote the access for all people to alimentation, health and education; fight violence;

promote respect to Human Rights; promote the development of indigenous communities.

5. Defend the Environment

• Promote actions intended to the restoration of damaged ecosystems; promote actions that

allow economic growth and jobs creation without harming the environment.

Main Proposals: New Alliance

Source: www.nueva-alianza.org.mx/ 2012.












25%

41%

27%7%

Percentual Budget per Party

$32,168,433.46

$52,538,959.12

$33,843,516.27

$8,716,067.32

Total $127,266,976.20

Monetary Budget per Party

Note: USDExchange Rate: $13.20 pesos / USD


45,478

2,806

2,345

1,421

1,372

Foreign Voters

Registered Voters 84,610,389

Foreign Voters 59,044

Total Registered Voters


28%30%

24%

18%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Percentage of time broadcasted in Radio and TV per Candidate

Media: Broadcast Monitoring

Period: March 30th – May 20th, 2012


28.1%

22.9%

27.6%

Mar

Apr

May


50.5%

54.3%

49.1%

Mar

Apr

May


Voters’ Preference Poll

20.1%

21.4%

21.9%

Mar

Apr

May

Progressive Movement

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

Mar

Apr

May

New Alliance Party

Question: If today were the Presidential Election, which candidate would you vote for?Source: Newspaper “El Universal”, May 14th 2012.


Fist Presidential Debate

Source: Univision Noticias, 2012.


The first Presidential Debate among the 4candidates was broadcasted nationally at thebeginning of May through non-principal openchannels. The candidates presented their mainproposals based on a previous draw defined by theElectoral Federal Institute.

Some candidates preferred to attack the PRI –PVEM candidate (the one with the highest shareaccording to preferential polls) rather than presenttheir own proposals.

The second debate will hold a differentscheme, allowing candidates move before thecameras and show relevant printed materials, among other improvements.

Results

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