metro houston economic outlook · more layoffs could be coming in the oil sector. ... houston’s...
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Presented by: Patrick Jankowski Senior Vice President, Research Greater Houston Partnership
Metro Houston Economic Outlook
Five years of incredible growth
Gross Domestic Product +$110 billion
Metro Population +570,000 residents
Employment +490,000 jobs
But the boom has come to and end
West Texas Intermediate -57.3% since Q2/14
Metro Exports -15.9% since Q4/14
Employment -0.5% since Q4/14
And things will get worse before they get better
More Layoffs Could Be Coming in the Oil Sector
Oil Slump Forces Deep Cuts by Service Providers
Houston’s energy-dominated office market in for a rest
Houston’s Economy Still Contracting
How bad will it get?
Oil Prices Losses
Recession Peak Trough Rigs Energy Jobs
Mid-1980s $30.75 $12.05 -3,766 (-83.3%) -53,600 (-46.3%)
Early-1990s $35.89 $14.57 -526 (-46.3%) -6,800 (-10.8%)
9-11/Enron $34.55 $19.53 -528 (-41.3%) -4,700 (-7.3%)
Great Recession $136.96 $39.51 -1,119 (-44.4%) -11,900 (-13.6%)
Current $106.31 $44.39 -1,057 (-54.7%) -4,000 (-3.5%)
Note: All losses calculated from the monthly average Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Baker Hughes, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Not a repeat of the 80s
Oil price collapse
Real estate overbuilding
Banking failures
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
$ pe
r bar
rel
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Spot Price, West Texas Intermediate, Weekly Avg.
This downturn driven solely by energy prices
Drilling activity continues to decline
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
Source: Baker Hughes
U.S. Rotary Rig Count, '14 - '151,160 rigs
-60.0%
Directional drilling and
fracking
How did we get here?
8.6 9.0
7.4
6.6
5.8 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0
5.4 5.5 5.6
6.5
7.5
9.0
9.2 8.9
'80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15* '16*
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration * Projected
U.S. Crude Production, Million Barrels Per Day
Production finally starting to slip
Change in Cash Flow, Selected U.S. Energy Firms $ Revenues (billions) Difference
Q3/15 Q3/14 $ %
Anadarko 1.688 5.01 -3.32 -66.3
EOG 2.172 5.119 -2.95 -57.6
Apache 1.496 3.441 -1.95 -56.5
Marathon 1.323 2.971 -1.65 -55.5
ConocoPhillips 7.507 12.917 -5.41 -41.9
Hess 1.689 2.736 -1.05 -38.3
Chevron 34.315 54.679 -20.36 -37.2
ExxonMobil 67.344 107.13 -39.79 -37.1
Shell 69.184 109.825 -40.64 -37.0
Occidental 3.246 4.93 -1.68 -34.2 Group Total $189.964 $308.758 $118.794 -46.2%
Source: various company web sites and Securities
Cash flows have been impacted
Layoffs always start in the field
Soon move to the factory floor
Gradually impact workers in the corporate office
Ultimately affect workers throughout the economy
Commodity Downturn Checklist
Concessions from vendors
Cutbacks on exploration activity
Reduction in blue collar head count
Reduction in white collar head count
Asset sales
Mergers and acquisitions
New industry structure
Resumption of growth
Approaching midpoint of the downturn
JOBS LOST/GAINED – HOUSTON AREA, DEC ’14 – JUNE ’15*
--- Losing Jobs --- --- Adding Jobs ---
Sector Jobs Sector Jobs
Manufacturing -14,500 Hotels, Restaurants, Bars +14,300
Oil Field Services -9,500 Construction +6,100
Transport & Warehousing -4,100 Health Care +4,800
Professional & Tech Srvcs -2,800 Other Services +2,000
Exploration -1,000 Finance & Insurance +1,200
Wholesale Trade -1,000 Administrative Srvcs +800 * Selected sectors Source: Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
YTD impact on jobs uneven
98.4
-8.1
18.7
44.353.4 54.4 53.0
10.6
92.8
17.8
59.7
1.3
-1.7-11.6
39.3
91.1
107.0
90.7
-110.6
49.7
82.9
118.5
89.9104.7
-9.2
December to December Job Growth (000s)
Source: Texas Workforce Commission * YTD
What will 2016 look like?
Office vacancies to rise, rents to slip
HOUSTON OFFICE MARKET
Inventory (Q3/15) 236.7 MSF
Vacancy Rate (direct + sublet) 13.0%
Under Construction 10.1 MSF
Projected Vacancy (mid-’16) 16.5%
Source: Transwestern
Minor impact on industrial
HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Inventory (Q3/15) 476.9 MSF
Vacancy Rate (direct + sublet) 4.8%
Under Construction 9.8 MSF
Projected Vacancy (mid-’16) 5.5%
Source: Transwestern
No new apartments needed
HOUSTON MULTIFAMILY MARKET
Inventory (Q3/15) 602,929 Units
Occupancy Rate 91.1%
Under Construction 26,667 Units
Avg. Absorption (‘10 – ’14) 15,000 units
Source: Transwestern & Apartment Data Services
Retail will remain tight
HOUSTON MULTI-TENANT RETAIL
Inventory (Q3/15) 204.1 MSF
Vacancy Rate 6.4%
Under Construction 2.0 MSF
Absorption (’13 & ’14) 2.0 MSF
Source: Transwestern & Greater Houston Partnership
How long will this downturn last?
13
33
22
58
Current
Great Recession
'00s Recession
'90s Recession
'80s Recession
Source: Greater Houston Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data
Months from peak to trough
How long will this downturn last?
Houston won’t disappear in the downturn
Port of Houston 8,000 ships per year
Population Growth 125,000 new residents
Houston Airports 54 million passengers
Texas Medical Center 7.2 million patients
Downstream Energy 25% refining capacity 40% base petrochem
Global Trade Ties 5,700 companies
Resilience Been here before
Houston won’t disappear in the downturn
Historical View of Oil and Employment
• Five years of remarkable expansion coming to a close.
• The economy won’t collapse but a number of sectors will be hurt, some severely.
• Don’t expect an uptick in energy prices will lead to a surge in hiring.
• We have enough office space and apartments for now.
• Growth will eventually return to long-term trend.
• But a challenging 12-18 months lay ahead.
Summary
Presented by: Patrick Jankowski Senior Vice President, Research Greater Houston Partnership
Metro Houston Economic Outlook