metro atlanta real estate market trends for january 2014
DESCRIPTION
View a slide show of the latest Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Trends For January 2014. Presented by Arthur Prescott of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Georgia Properties.TRANSCRIPT
Greater
Metro Atlanta
Market
125,000 Homes Sold In 2006. 60,000 Homes Sold in 2010.
2013 Closings 1.3% Behind 2012.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Metro Atlanta Homes Sold
December Closings Down 2.5% Compared To November Closings
Dec. 2013 Closings Down 6.9% Compared To Dec. 2012 Closings
2013 Annual Closings Down 1.3% Compared To 2012 Closings
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2012
2013
Metro Atlanta 2013 Closings
697
1246
1408
251
44 60
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-$1
mil
$1 mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Closings – December 2013 (Number Of Transactions)
-43.8%
-6.9%
15.0%19.0%
4.8%
-14.3%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-$1
mil
$1 mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Closings
Dec. 2013 Compared To Nov. 2013
-24.6%
-0.3%
17.8%
28.1%
51.7%
-45.5%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-$1
mil
$1 mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Closings
Dec. 2013 Compared To Dec. 2012
Listed Inventory December 2011 - December 2013
Residential Detached, Metro Atlanta
Inventory Up 11% from Dec. 2012, Down 34% from Dec. 2011 -2500
2500
7500
12500
17500
22500
27500 Inventory Up
15% From
February 2013
16.4
50.2
10.6
6.4
3.83
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
< $100K $100K-
$200K
$200K-
$500K
$500K-1 Mil $1 Mil - $2
Mil
$2 Mil +
Metro Atlanta Months of Inventory (Based On Closed Sales)
Overall “Months Of Inventory” Is 4.6 Months
6 Months Supply Is Considered A Normal Market
ASP Up 9.8% From Last Month & Up 19% From Last Dec.
$184$201
$217$233
$241$249 $255
$240$225 $231 $224
$246
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Metro Atlanta 2013 Average Sale Prices
Average Sales Price Increasing From Bottom Of 2011
$261 $268
$209
$189 $190$176 $183
$229
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Metro Atlanta Average Annual Sale Prices
Metro Atlanta Foreclosure Comparisons (Data by RealValuator)
Baby Boomers Are #1 Buyer Segment
Chart Shows Index Results January 2010 Through October 2013
Home Values Up 37% From Bottom of March 2012 – But Leveling.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
July
Oct
Jan
Apr
July
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
ober
Case-Shiller Index For Metro Atlanta (October 2013 Results - Reported December 2013)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Case-Shiller Home Values For Metro Atlanta
• Peak was July 2007. Current Home Values Remain Below The
Normal Trend Line. But Prices Are Correcting!
Berkshire Hathaway
HomeServices
Georgia Properties
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
BHHS Market
2013 Annual Closings Vs. 2012 Annual Closings
• BHHS GP 2013 Closings Were Up 9.9% Compared To 2012.
• The Market Was Down 1.3% Compared To 2012.
BHHS GP
Outperforms
The Market
By 11.2%!
Information Provided By Trendgraphix.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
BHHS HNR KW-AP CB MB SS AFH
YTD Transactions – December 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
Information Provided By Trendgraphix.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
BHHS KW-AP HNR CB MB AFH SS
YTD Listing Sales – December 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
Information Provided By Trendgraphix.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
BHHS HNR KW-AP MB CB SS AFH
YTD Buyer Sales – December 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
Information Provided By Trendgraphix.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
BHHS HNR KW-AP MB CB AFH SS
YTD Listing Inventory – December 2013
FMLS Counties + Southern Crescent
Economic &
Housing Trends
• Georgia Lost 325,000 Jobs In The Great Recession.
• 2012 Restarted Positive Job Growth Trend!
-250,000
-50,000-25,000
63,400 66,200 76,00093,100
-300000
-250000
-200000
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
More Jobs In Georgia! (Reports From UGA Terry College of Business/
Georgia State Economic Forecasting Center)
Major Group Moves
And More Coming …
Rustbelt To Sunbelt
4,944,939
7,377,951
8,256,323
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ARC 20-Cty Population
Forecast Population Growth 20-County Forecast Area
Baby Boomers Are Coming To Be Close
To Their Children & Grandchildren.
Source :Census Bureau
Total Population
Rank of Share
Under 20 20-64 65+ 25-39 45-59
Dallas 6,144,489 3 9 25 1 24
Atlanta 5,271,550 5 6 27 2 19
Phoenix 4,179,427 4 24 15 3 26
Denver 2,466,591 11 5 24 4 12
Riverside 4,081,371 1 27 22 5 27
Houston 5,629,127 2 10 26 6 21
Portland 2,174,631 19 4 19 7 7
Seattle 3,309,347 22 1 20 8 3
Sacramento 2,091,120 12 13 14 9 20
Washington 5,306,125 14 3 23 10 11
Los Angeles 12,875,587 6 17 18 11 23
San Diego 2,974,859 8 14 16 12 25
San Francisco 4,203,898 26 2 10 13 4
Orlando 2,032,496 18 15 8 14 22
Minneapolis 3,208,212 10 7 21 15 6
Chicago 9,522,879 7 16 17 16 18
New York 18,815,988 21 12 6 17 15
Boston 4,482,857 23 8 9 18 10
Cincinnati 2,134,864 9 19 13 19 14
Baltimore 2,668,056 17 11 11 20 9
Detroit 4,467,592 13 18 12 21 5
Philadelphia 5,827,962 16 21 5 22 13
St. Louis 2,802,282 15 20 7 23 8
Miami 5,413,212 24 26 3 24 17
Tampa 2,723,949 25 25 1 25 16
Cleveland 2,096,471 20 23 4 26 2
Pittsburgh 2,355,712 27 22 2 27 1
Metro Atlanta Has The:
•#2 Population Age 25-39
•#5 Population Under 20
Atlanta is 56% Cheaper To Buy!
Metro Atlanta Is 56% Better To Buy Than Rent
• New Household Formation Dropped From 1.2 Mil (2006) To 400,000 (2008)
• Growing To 1.2 Million In 2013. Lots Of Pent-Up Demand.
• 4 Million Students Per Year Graduate From College For Next 10 Years!
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1995-
2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
U. S. Household Formation Trends Demand For 1st Time Buyers Will Be Strong!
Source: U.S. Census, JCHS Household Growth Projections, Goldman Sachs
Prices Improving and Mortgage Rates Rising. But Home Affordability Remains Historically Favorable.
207
187 187197 194
160 154146 141
116
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
National Housing Affordability Index (Combination of home prices and mortgage rates)
Average Rates Around 8%
4.9 4.94.9
4.4
3.83.9
5.0
4.4
5.1
3.5
5
4.8
4.4
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
Freddie Mac & Mortgage Bankers Association
30-Year Fixed Rate Forecast (December 2013)
2010 – 2014 Quarterly Averages
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Freddie Mac
MBA
Amount Of
Mortgage
3.5%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
5%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
8%
Mortgage
30-Year
Cost
$200,000 $898 $323,280 $1,073 $386,280 $1,467 $528,120
$300,000 $1,347 $484,920 $1,610 $579,600 $2,201 $792,360
$400,000 $1,796 $646,560 $2,147 $772,920 $2,935 $1,056,600
$500,000 $2,245 $808,200 $2,684 $966,240 $3,668 $1,320,480
$1 million $4,490 $1,616,400 $5,368 $1,932,480 $7,337 $2,641,320
Increasing Mortgage Rates Make A
Significant Difference In Home Affordability