met panel (metp) met operations group (mog) … · 3.3 sinabung, sumatra, indonesia – 19 february...
TRANSCRIPT
(17 pages)
METP WG-MOG/8 SN 17
MET PANEL (METP)
MET OPERATIONS GROUP (MOG)
INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH (IAVW)
EIGHTH MEETING
Wellington, New Zealand, 12 to 14 November 2018
Agenda Item 6:
6.1.: Agenda Item
VAAC Darwin Activity report
(Presented by Tristan King)
SUMMARY
This paper presents an IAVW Management Report for the VAAC Darwin areas of responsibility
covering the period 1 July 2017 – 16 Oct 2018.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) Darwin is responsible for monitoring the area
from the Andaman Islands (India) eastwards to the Solomon Islands including the volcanically active Indonesian archipelago, Papua New Guinea and the southern Philippines. More than 150 active
volcanoes lie within the area, some of which have given rise to the largest eruptions in human history.
Areas within the region can have poor communications, limited infrastructure and ability to monitor
volcanic activity. A large part of the region is characterised by moist tropical convection that makes
remote sensing difficult for much of the year.
METP MOG/8 -SN/01 06/11/18
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 2 -
2. DISCUSSION
2.1 Issuance of Advisories
VAAC Period of reporting Total number of Advisories High Impact Events*
Darwin 01 Jul 2017 - 16 Oct 2018 3,855 Agung 25 November
27 June Sinabung 19 February
06 April
Merapi 11 May
01 June
Manam 25 August 23 September
5 October
Soputan 3 October
Salak 10 October
* Discernible or Visible ash that is impacting or expected to impact aircraft cruising levels, international
aerodromes, is of high media interest, or is deemed to be significant to aviation operations by a VAAC.
2.1.1 A total of 2696 advisories were issued by VAAC Darwin (610 less 16/17 FY) and 1159
advisories have been issued for the 18/19 FY up to the 16th October 2018.
2.2 Key Performance Indicators for VAAC Darwin:
Figure 1 shows the VAAC Darwin's progression towards the KPI.
2.2.1 Figure 2 shows the number of advisories issued by VAAC Darwin (reported by volcano)
during this period. There have been a variety of ash generating eruptions throughout the region from
For the period 1 July 2017 – 16 Oct 2018 VAAC Darwin
Initial Advisories issued in time (within 20mins on
95% of occasions)
100%
Standard Advisories issued in time (within 75mins
on 95% of occasions)
100%
Advisories issued by next due time N/A
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 3 -
1st July 2017 to 16th October 2018 including explosive, short lived eruptions at Sinabung (393 advisories) and Merapi (30 advisories) on the Indonesian Islands of Sumatra and Java respectively.
Several longer lived, sustained eruptions were observed with Ulawun (75 advisories) and Langila
(119 advisories) on the Island of New Britain and Bagana (129 advisories) Bougainville leading to
the most advisories. Dukono in northern Halmahera, Indonesia again erupted almost continually
throughout the year with 1921 advisories issued. Mt Krakatau or Anak Krakatau between the Indonesian Islands of Sumatra and Java has become more active with observed lava fountaining and
intermittent eruptions since June (260 advisories). Mt Agung on the Indonesian island of Bali had
semi-continuous eruption throughout June to August with 440 advisories issued. Manam in Papua
New Guinea has provided short-lived eruptions which have been more difficult to detect as well as a
few unconfirmed eruptions (100 advisories). Mt Soputan, which last erupted in 2016, erupted recently with a sustained plume for multiple days with 17 advisories issued. Of note is the first
eruption of Kadovar (PNG) in recorded history with 133 advisories issued. Mt Salak provided a
difficult situation with the rapid generation of a cloud which was later determined to be a
thunderstorm so a false alarm (5 advisories). Figure 2 features the total number of advisories issued
by VAAC Darwin since 1993.
Figure 2 - Advisories by volcano for the VAAC Darwin (blue) and areas of responsibility {1st July
2017 until 16th October 2018). VAAC Darwin issuance of VAA in VAAC Tokyo's area in red.
440
129
1921
13 48133
3 3 29
260119 100
3 14 30 5 30 51
393
17 778
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 4 -
Figure 3 - VAAC Darwin: Number of advisories 1993/94 - 2018/19 (blue) and trend line (black).
3. HIGH IMPACT ERUPTIONS
3.1 Agung, Bali, Indonesia – 25 November (2017) and 27 June (2018)
3.1.1 Between 10 June and 27 July 2018, there were 36 distinct eruptive events at Agung
requiring the issuance of Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs). This prolonged period of unrest at Agung
was characterised by frequent discrete low-level eruptions punctuated by occasional high-level
and/or continuous eruptions. During the event, both the mode and median ash column heights were FL150 (15,000FT above mean sea level). A total of 236 VAAs were issued during this eruptive
campaign. Of the 36 distinct events (defined as such by the issuance of a final VAA), two stand out
as the major events of the campaign: (1) a continuous emission commencing on 28 June 0325Z and
concluding 30 June 1115Z with 39 VAAs issued and a maximum ash height of FL230, and (2)
commencing 2 July 2018 1335Z and concluding 3 July 1445Z with 15 VAAs issued and a maximum ash height of FL300. At operationally critical times, hourly advisories were produced by VAAC
Darwin at the request of Airlines
3.2 Merapi, Java, Indonesia – 11 May and 01 June 2018.
3.2.1 Activity at Merapi can be summarised by two distinct high impact events. The first being May 11 where an explosive eruption to FL500 was observed. The volcanic ash dispersed in numerous
directions making the forecast complex however the ash was clearly discernible via satellite imagery
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
40009
3/94
94/
95
95/
96
96/
97
97/
98
98/
99
99/
00
00/
01
01/
02
02/
03
03/
04
04/
05
05/
06
06/
07
07/
08
08/
09
09/
10
10/
11
11/
12
12/
13
13/
14
14/
15
15/
16
16/
17
17/
18
18/
19*
Nu
mb
er o
f Vo
lca
nic
Ash
Ad
viso
ries
Financial Year
Number of Volcanic Ash Advisories - 1993/94 to present
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 5 -
due to the lack of meteorological cloud following the eruption. The volcanic ash rapidly weakened as it approached Melbourne FIR before dropping below discernible levels with the event lasting
approximately 17 hours. Notably, a large amount of supplementary information was received from
CVGHM through the instant messaging platform which help to support the VAAC forecasters
evidence-based assessment process.
3.3 Sinabung, Sumatra, Indonesia – 19 February and 6 April 2018
3.3.1 Hotspot activity had been observed at Sinabung throughout January 2018 leading up to an
explosive eruption which occurred on the 19th February 2018. The eruption lasted 291 seconds with volcanic ash being ejected to FL550. Conditions for observing the movement of volcanic ash were
good with little meteorological cloud obscuring the view from satellite imagery. Due to varying wind
direction and strength spanning the height of the plume, multi-level VAAs were issued. Figure 8
below shows the distinct height and movement of the volcanic ash.
On the 6th April, ground reports of an eruption to 5000m were received although a heavy deck of
meteorological cloud made detection of any eruption difficult. Due to the height of the eruption, a
dark brown areas amongst the deck of white meteorological cloud was observed. The event from
eruption to Volcanic Ash being no longer discernible lasted around 19 hours.
3.4 Manam, Papua New Guinea – 25 August, 23 September and 5 October 2018
3.4.1 Hotspot activity observed over Manam with minor emission observed during the days
leading up to the major eruption to FL500 at 24/2040z. The event occurred early in the morning just
as visible Himawari-8 imagery was coming into the system. The imagery indicated that there were
two discrete eruptions that occurred. There were multiple storms in the area which made the detection
difficult paired with the fact that Manam typically does not exhibit ash signals in RGB imagery. Later
the eruption was reported by ground observers, the volcano observatory and a strong SO2 signal was detected. Multiple advisories were issued during the event, but the initial eruption was quickly
covered by meteorological cloud in the area and finalised 9 hours later.
3.4.2 On the 23rd September and 5th October there was suspicious cloud formation observed at
Manam moving in different directions to other cloud in the area. Given the recent Manam eruptions and the lack of distinct ash signals observed on satellite imagery, the forecasters issued advisories to
FL340 and FL320 respectively. These two events have yet to be confirmed by ground observers.
3.5 Soputan, Sulawesi, Indonesia – 3 October 2018
3.5.1 On the 2nd October, there was a ground report or Volcanic Observatory Notice for Aviation
(VONA) indicating increased unrest and seismic activity at Mt Soputan. On the 3rd October at 0050
UTC, Soputan had an initial eruption to FL200, with further eruptions to varying heights. The
advisory height reach FL250 for one of the eruptions but the area was covered in cloud making it
difficult for an accurate assessment. The eruptions and activity lasted multiple days before being
finalised. Minor activity remains at the volcano to date. The last time Soputan erupted was in 6 th Feb 2016.
3.6 Salak, Java, Indonesia – 10 October 2018
3.6.1 On the 10th October at 10/1050 UTC, the forecasters noticed a rapidly growing cloud over the volcano with no other meteorological activity across Java. Information was requested from
ground observers but there was no quick response. Since it was a highly populated area, an advisory
was issued to FL500. With further imagery and some information from pilots and ground observers,
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 6 -
the forecaster was confident enough to cancel the advisory. The activity was an isolated storm near Jakarta. The advisory was cancelled in just over 2 hours. Airlines were called and briefed about the
situation.
4.0 SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL CHANGES
4.1 VAAC Darwin Volcanic Ash Strength of Evidence Assessment (VASEA) project.
4.1.1 VAAC Darwin has operationalised the VASEA. This is an enhancement to the current
service and uses confidence-based assessment criteria to graphically represent the VAAC forecasters
assessment of discernible ash. A VASEA is produced for every routinely issued VAA and distributed
to industry via a registered user portal. The VASEA has been positively received by stakeholders and continues to be evaluated for further improvement. A more detailed account of the VASEA project
outcomes is presented in a separate paper.
5.0 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
5.1. Building operational resilience through training of additional staff from the Bureaus
National Operations Centre (BNOC) across the VAAC functions. We now have 14 competent VAAC
forecasters. Additionally, Incident Manager training has been rolled out to Shift Supervisors and
BNOC Management to strengthen surge capacity during high impact events.
6.0 VAAC BACK UP TESTING
6.1 VAAC Darwin and VAAC Tokyo initiated a back-up test on December 14, 2017 as per the
Scheme of Cooperation for backup procedures between the two neighbouring VAAC regions. Both
VAACs requested in turn that the other take responsibility to monitor its area of operations for one
hour before responsibility was returned. Overall, the backup test was deemed a success with both VAACs clearly demonstrating their capacity to back up the adjacent region. Lessons learnt included
updating addressing and some internal system refinements.
6.2 VAAC Wellington invoked the backup of its area of responsibility by VAAC Darwin
during the 21st-22nd April, during an outage at MetService. No VAAs were issued on behalf of VAAC Wellington during this time.
6.3 The third VAAC Darwin-Wellington backup test was held on the 16th May 2018. This
year the backup test procedures where revised, resulting in the number of test VAAs issued during
the test reducing to one per VAAC. An error was identified with the header of the test VAA issued by VAAC Darwin on behalf of VAAC Wellington, but despite this some affirmative responses were
received. Those participants that did not provide an affirmative or negative response to the receipt of
the VAAC Wellington test VAA have been contacted to understand why they did not participate
during the test. A second backup test is planned for November.
7.0 REGIONAL ENGAGEMENT
7.1 Papua New Guinea – visit to PNG National Weather Services, PNG NOTAM Office, PNG Air
Services, Air Nuigini and Rabaul Volcano Observatory
7.1.1 VAAC Darwin conducted an external stakeholder liaison visit to Papua New Guinea with visits including MWO's, ACC's and Airline and the Rabaul Volcano Observatory. All these
stakeholders are an integral part of VAAC Darwin operations and it was very benefic ial to learn how
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 7 -
we fit into their operations and vice versa. With communication being a challenging area of development in PNG, the trip focussed on improving communications between all appropriate
parties. The meetings were rich in information and have lead to improved communications. Another
purpose of the visit was to update and share VAAC Darwin's service offerings and areas or
development including the VASEA product and the GDAS (Graphical Daily Activity Summary)
with our stakeholders. Figure 12 gives a snapshot of the engagement undertaken.
8.0 ACTION by the METP-WG/MOG
The meeting is invited to:
• Note the information contained in this paper; and • Discuss any relevant matters as appropriate.
— END —
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 8 -
Appendix A
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 9 -
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 10 -
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 11 -
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 12 -
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 13 -
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 14 -
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 15 -
METP WG-MOG/8-SN 17
- 16 -
METP MOG 8/SN 17
- 17 -