merritt's market update
DESCRIPTION
Pebble Beach, Carmel, Pacific Grove, Monterey, Carmel real estate, Carmel by the Sea, Carmel Valley, real estate, Monterey Peninsula, luxury homes, home selling, home buyingTRANSCRIPT
©2014 Merritt Ringer
Read, Seen, or Heard
I heard a great story recently -- I love telling it -- of a little
girl who was in a drawing lesson. She was six and she was at
the back, drawing, and the teacher said this little girl hardly
ever paid attention, and in this drawing lesson she did. The
teacher was fascinated and she went over to her and she said,
"What are you drawing?" And the girl said, "I'm drawing a
picture of God." And the teacher said, "But nobody knows
what God looks like." And the girl said, "They will in a
minute."
~ Ken Robinson
Failure is not an option; it comes bundled with the
software.
~ Unknown
Table of Contents
National Price Rises………………………………... 3
A History of California Prices……………….……...4
Credit Conditions…………………..…….…………5
Different Trajectories..…………………….………..6
Carmel………………………………...….….…… 7-8
Carmel Valley…………………………..….………9-10
Carmel Highlands………………………..…..……10-11
Pebble Beach…………………………….………...12-13
Pacific Grove…………………………..…....….….14-15
Monterey………………….……………….....…… 16-17
Monterey-Salinas Corridor……………………….18-19
Seaside & Marina ………………………….………20-21
An Agent’s Life …………………...….…….…..…..22
End Note …………………………………...…….....23
Caveat: I’m no economist (despite the performance of
most, this is no boast). I also lack the gift of prophecy;
from the evidence, I’m not alone. The information here is
as reliable as I can make it, but isn’t comprehensive. The
opinions are just my opinions; but they were forged on
the front lines of our market.
NATIONAL HOME PRICES
This is a year-over-year index of national home prices, a special breed of graph.
What it shows most eloquently is the rate of price increases has recently stalled a
bit. Prices are still rising well above inflation, just not as rapidly as at the year’s
start.
CALIFORNIA PRICES HISTORY
Slightly dated but entertaining, here’s a chart of general California prices.
CREDIT CONDITIONS
How tight is credit? Ben Bernanke, having completed his tenure as Chairman of
the Federal Reserve, was recently turned down when he tried to refinance his
personal residence. His home is worth less than a million and he’s on the lucrative
speech-making circuit (the rumor is $250K a pop). Presumably, an algorithm
didn’t like his employment status. Of course, some banker is sure to leap at this
opportunity if only for its promotional value. What an eloquent little fable about
our mortgage market.
DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES:
2 FORMS of FINANCING
CARMEL: NEW ESCROWS
Another brisk month in Carmel, averaging more than a new escrow every day.
Almost 80% of the new sales were asking over a million and a third were over
$2M as the general price level continued to climb. There was one short sale.
CARMEL CLOSED SAMPLES
The sale of this home offers a cautionary tale. The owner, a skilled architect, built
a masterpiece in an area of lesser homes, violating Building Rule #1 (location
matters most). He then violated Selling Rule #1 (price matters most). This home
was on the market, with brief breaks, for over 8 years (!) as he switched agents 7
times and tried 16 price changes (some upwards). Finally, a rising market rescued
him; he sold for $1.720M less than he first asked, closing for $2.075M. With
better footwork, he likely could have made $500-700K more & saved 7 years.
Here, they did everything right. Carmel Point (location, check). Priced right
(check). It sold in 8 days - not 8 years - for just $60K less than the asking, closing
at $2.190M.
CARMEL VALLEY: NEW ESCROWS
Sales volume in the valley has been slowly sliding for the past six months. Prices,
while healthy enough, aren’t ripping the roof off: we saw just 3 sales asking over a
million last month and the highest was asking just $1.525M. There was one short
sale.
CARMEL VALLEY: CLOSED SAMPLES
On a flat acre+ in mid-Valley, this nicely remodeled 2700+ sf home with pool & a
well for landscaping dropped $99k from the ask price to close at $1.4M (+$8.00).
On El Caminito, way above the Village, this modernistic home took a bumpy road
to closing. They started in mid-2012, experimented with 7 different prices, went in
& out of escrow 3 times, switched agents, and finally closed for $130K more (!)
than their lowest ask: $1.025M.
CARMEL HIGHLANDS: NEW ESCROWS
No homes, zero, went into escrow in the Highlands last month.
CARMEL HIGHLANDS CLOSED SAMPLES
No closings in the Highlands, not one
PEBBLE BEACH: NEW ESCROWS
The upper reaches of the Pebble market lit up last month with homes entering
escrow that were asking $31.250M (yes, over thirty million), $10.3M, $5.790M,
and $2.495M. There were no distressed sales.
PEBBLE BEACH CLOSED SAMPLES
On Crespi, just 5 years old, with nice views, this 8,574 sf home had 6 BR/7.5BA,
and sat on over 1.5 acres. It sold, all cash, in 72 days for $8.4M.
Being a tad dated did not stop this 5800+ sf home on Padre with ocean views from
selling. They did have to come down about 20% in price but they did so fairly
briskly, finding a buyer in 166 days & closing for $4M.
Pebble saw 4 closings in September at, or well over, $4M, two in the $2M range,
and none below $1.4M.
PACIFIC GROVE: NEW ESCROWS
Volume in PG continued to be pretty stable. There were no new escrows asking
over a million. One short sale was the only sign of distress.
PACIFIC GROVE CLOSED SAMPLES
On Central, with ocean views, this 3800+ sf Georgian had 4BR/3BA. It took 43
days to find a buyer who paid all cash: $2.350M.
This fixer near downtown had about 1,000 sf, 3BR/1BA. In 7days it sold all-cash
and full-price for $499K.
MONTEREY: NEW ESCROWS
One new escrow asking over a million, one over $900k, two over $800k, and then
lots at prices descending until we ended up with one asking under $400k. The best
news is that not a single distressed sale happened.
MONTEREY CLOSED SAMPLES
Here are 2 homes that sold for the same price, just for comparison
Somewhat remodeled single-level 2600+ sf home in Aguajito Oaks neighborhood
took all of 3 days to find a buyer and sold for $1.1M.
They tried for 6 months to sell this almost 2500 sf Victorian last year without
success. They switched agents, kept the same price, and sold in 80 days for $1.1M.
MONTEREY-SALINAS CORRIDOR: NEW ESCROWS
(east to San Benancio)
Half the new sales were asking in the $1.495-1.575M range, half were under. There
was on short sale. This market continues to plod along.
MONTEREY-SALINAS CLOSED SAMPLES
Monterra, ocean view 5600 sf home with 5BR/5.5BA on almost 3 acres. In 2008,
they sold for $3.8M and have been trying to sell since September, 2012, with a
couple breaks. They finally closed, after switching agents, for $3.2M.
Pretty typical of what Pasadera offers these days: 5200+ sf, 3BR/3+BA. In 2006,
that fateful year of the market peak, this home sold for $2.950M. This time, it sold
pretty quick for almost full price at $1.675M.
SEASIDE & MARINA: NEW ESCROWS
These two towns showed healthy sales volume in September, though there were no
sales asking over $620K or under $219K. Two of the new escrows were bank-
owned and there were 5 short sales. These communities remain a bit more beset
by fallout from the crisis than the rest of the Peninsula.
The Savannah model at East Garrison: brand new, 2800+ sf. It sold in 12 days, no
doubt helped by the agent’s MLS note that the “sales office is open 7 dyas per
week”. It closed at $678.5K.
You’d think the driveway was the most prominent selling feature of this remodeled
3/2 home on Malta in Seaside. It sold in 8 days for $530K.
MARINA & SEASIDE CLOSED SAMPLES
An Agent’s Life
September? It was a blur.
Thank your for taking a few minutes with my e-magazine. Your
comments & questions are welcome. Let me know about issues you’d
like to see addressed here or stories and facts you’d like others to know.
© Merritt Ringer 2013
©2014 Merritt Ringer