mercury national polling assessment - september 2012
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Dear Clients and Friends of Mercury: As you know, polling has always been core to the DNA of our company, an original capability dating back to 1999 which remains a critical part of our daily strategic work. Since the founding of the firm, there has been an explosion of polling data and polling firms, particularly during election years. To that end, we've decided to have our polling shop analyze the public polling data and provide you with a brief summary of what we're seeing in the public data that is credible, well-researched, interesting and timely. For the balance of this election season, we will provide this update on a bi-weekly basis. Post-election, we will continue with presentations monthly unless events warrant more frequent updates. This service is free to our clients and friends but if you do not want to receive this document, please let us know and we will immediately remove you from the distribution.TRANSCRIPT
National Polling AssessmentSeptember 2012
Right Direction/Wrong Track
39%39%Right DirectionRight Direction
Unemployment
8.1%8.1%August 2012August 2012
ConsumerConfidence
-46.5-46.5Sept. 9Sept. 9thth, 2012, 2012
Healthcare Reform
40%40%Good IdeaGood Idea
Obama Job Approval
50%50%ApproveApprove
Obama Favorability
53%53%FavorableFavorable
Romney Favorability
44%44%FavorableFavorable
2012 Ballot
48% 48% -- 43%43%
Generic Ballot
49% 49% -- 43%43%
Key Numbers at a Glance
Mercury. 2
39%39%Right DirectionRight Direction
Right Direction/Wrong Track:
Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
The country’s attitude about the future is improving…
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Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
8.1%8.1%August 2012August 2012
Unemployment:
…though unemployment remains above 8%...
Mercury. 4
Unemployment trend from the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
-42.2-42.2Sept. 9Sept. 9thth 2012 2012
Consumer ConfidenceConsumer Confidence Index by Bloomberg:
…and consumer confidence is stagnant.
Mercury. 5
40%40%Good IdeaGood Idea
Healthcare ReformFrom what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan that was passed by Congress and signed into law by the President in 2010, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea?
NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted July 18-22, 2012 n=1,000 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
Despite passing SCTOUS, health care reform is unpopular.
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50%50%ApproveApprove
Obama Job ApprovalDo you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
However, Obama’s job approval is resilient…
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Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
53%53%FavorableFavorable
(net +10)(net +10)
Obama FavorableOverall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Barack Obama?
…and his favorability remains high…
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ABC News/Washington Post Poll, conducted September 5-9, 2012 n=837 RVs, MoE = ± 4%
44%44%FavorableFavorable
(net -5)(net -5)
Romney FavorableOverall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney?
…while Romney’s favorability is inverted…
Mercury. 9
ABC News/Washington Post Poll, conducted September 5-9, 2012 n=837 RVs, MoE = ± 4%
2012 BallotIf the presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrats Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and Republicans Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan?
48%48% -- 43%43%
…leading to an edge for Obama on the ballot…
Mercury.10
Fox News Poll, conducted September 9 – 11, 2012, n=1,056 RVs, MoE = ± 3%
Swing State PollingSwing State Polling
Arizona (11 EVs)
Obama 44, Romney 53(PPP, 9/7 – 9/9, n=993 LV)
Colorado (9 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 46(PPP, 8/31-9/2,
n=1001 LV)
Iowa (6 EVs)
Obama 47, Romney 45(PPP, 8/23-26, n=1244 LV)
Missouri (10 EVs)
Obama 43, Romney 50(Mason-Dixon, 8/22-23,
n=625 LV)
Ohio (18 EVs)
Obama 50, Romney 43(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11,
n=979 LV)
New Hampshire(4 EVs)
Obama 45, Romney 40(WMUR, 9/4-10, n=592 LV)
Virginia (13 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 44(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11,
n=996 LV)
Florida (29 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 44(NBC/WSJ/Marist, 9/9-11,
n=980 LV)
…and in key swing states.
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Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Obama 49, Romney 47(Quinnipiac, 8/15-21,
n=1190 LV)
Intrade: Obama Re-Election
Intrade also like Obama’s chances at re-election…
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63.2%63.2%September 13September 13
Twitter Political Index
Source: election.twitter.com
23%23% -- 11%11%
… while the Twitter-verse remains unkind to Romney.
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(September 13(September 13thth))
Paul Ryan
Paul Ryan’s image is good, but is historically unimportant.
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As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people: Paul Ryan
CNN/ORC Poll, conducted August 31 – September 3 2012 n=1,005 adults, MoE = ± 3.4%
Congressional BallotIf the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?
49%49% -- 43%43%
Republicans have ceded their generic ballot advantage…
Mercury.15
Reuters/Ipsos Poll, conducted September 7-10, 2012 n=1,089 RVs, MoE = ± 3.1%
State of the SenateState of the Senate
Likely DEM Lean DEM Toss-Up Lean GOP Likely GOPConnecticut
(Open)Florida(Nelson)
Massachusetts(Brown)
Arizona(Open)
Nebraska(Open)
Hawaii(Open)
Missouri (McCaskill)
Montana (Tester)
Indiana(Open)
Maine(Open)
New Mexico(Open)
Nevada(Heller)
North Dakota(Open)
Michigan(Stabenow)
Ohio(Brown)
Virginia(Open)
Wisconsin(Open)
…though they are poised to pick up seats in the Senate…
Mercury.16
Latest Senate PollingLatest Senate Polling
Nevada:
Heller (R): 47%Berkley (D): 45%
Montana:
Rehberg (R): 47%Tester (D): 43%
Wisconsin:
Thompson (R): 50%Baldwin (D): 44%
Missouri:
Akin (R): 43%McCaskill (D): 49%
Virginia:
Kaine (D): 46%Allen (R): 46%
Massachusetts:
Brown (R): 49%Warren (D): 44%
…and toss-ups will determine who controls the chamber.
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Mercury.18
About Twitter’s Political IndexAbout Twitter’s Political Index
Twitter introduced a Political Index that scores all tweets about Barack Obama and Mitt Romney as “positive”, “negative”, or “neutral” The number associated with each candidate represents, on average, the percentage of tweets about that candidate that were more positive than all Tweets about any topic.
Because the data it analyzes are completely unprovoked (as compared to a political survey), we find value in the Index in measuring the daily “winner” of users’ sentiments; evidence has also shown that the Index’s measurements for Obama do correlate with his net approval rating.
We are unconvinced of its predictive power: the users of Twitter are not representative of the national electorate, and positive or negative tweets do not correlate with votes.
Learn more about the index at elections.twitter.com
The “Twindex” is a prototype in using social media as a metric for an election. The world of social media will continue to merge with the world of politics and public affairs. Our digital team can help you stay on top of and leverage new developments like this to achieve your policy and business goals.
The “Twindex” is a prototype in using social media as a metric for an election. The world of social media will continue to merge with the world of politics and public affairs. Our digital team can help you stay on top of and leverage new developments like this to achieve your policy and business goals.
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National Polling AssessmentSeptember 2012
Kieran MahoneyCEO
New York, NY | [email protected]
Kirill GoncharenkoPresident
New York, NY | [email protected]
Senator James TalentCo-Chairman
Washington, DC| [email protected]
Hon. Fernando FerrerCo-Chairman
New York, NY | [email protected]
Hon. Fabian NunezPartner
Sacramento, CA| [email protected]
Hon. Max SandlinCo-Chairman
Washington, DC | [email protected]
Thomas DohertyPartner
Albany, NY | [email protected]
Michael McKeonPartner
New York, NY | [email protected]
Adam MendelsohnPartner
Sacramento, CA| [email protected]
Michael DuHaimePartner
Westfield, NJ| [email protected]
Hon. Vin WeberPartner
Washington, DC | [email protected]