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©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 1 Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update India Solar Quarterly Market Update Too Much Too Fast? Falling Tariffs Causing Concern in The Indian Solar Market May 2016 KEY FINDINGS Mercom forecasts approximately 5 GW of solar installations in India for CY 2016 With 2.2 GW installed to date; cumulative installations have surged to 7.5 GW as of May 2016 Solar energy now represents 2.5% of total installed power capacity in India, up from 1.4% a year ago - and was the fastest growing new renewable energy source The solar development pipeline now stands at 22 GW with over 13 GW under construction Module prices have declined slightly over the last three months Currently, 19 developers have bid below 5 (~$0.0735) for 2.9 GW worth of solar capacity across 46 projects. About 1.2 GW of these projects have signed PPAs Low bids through reverse auctions continue to be a major issue List of Charts/Tables India Solar Installations (MW)……………………………………………………………..……………….. 2 Utility-Scale Solar Projects in India…………………………………………………………….................. 3 India Solar Policy Map………..…….………………….…….…………………………………….……….. 4 Domestic Interest Rates for Solar Project Financing (%)………..…….….….…….………….……….. 5 All India Cumulative Solar Installations By Policy Type (MW)……………………..…………………… 6 India Solar Project Pipeline (MW)…………………………….……………………………………….…… 6 JNNSM Phase II, Batch 2 Tenders/Auction Results ………………….................................................. 8 JNNSM Phase II, Batch 3 Tenders/Auction Results …………………................................................. 9 JNNSM Phase II, Batch 4 Tenders/Auction Results …………………................................................. 10 Details of Funds Sanctioned Under Solar Park Program ………………….......................................... 12 Indian Module ASP……………………………………………………………………………...................... 13 Developers Bidding for Solar Projects Below 5……………………………….……..……..................... 14 Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India (/kWh)……………………………..……...……...................... 14 Clean Energy Cess Fund Status……………………………………………............................................ 15 Ministry-wise NCEF Fund Allocation by Year………………….………………………………................ 15 Developers Over 1% Market Share of Operating Projects in India…………………….….....…….….. 16 20 Developers Account for ~71% of the Project Pipeline in India………………………….....…….….. 16 India – Installed Power Capacity Mix (%)……………………………………………………....…..….….. 17 Karnataka – List of LoAs Issued……………………………………………..………………….…….….…. 23 Jharkhand – List of LoAs Issued……………………………………………..……………….....……….…. 24 India Solar Installations (MW) By Location (May 2016) ……………………………………………….….. 25

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Page 1: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 1

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

India Solar Quarterly Market Update

Too Much Too Fast? Falling Tariffs Causing Concern in The Indian Solar Market

May 2016

KEY FINDINGS

� Mercom forecasts approximately 5 GW of solar installations in India for CY 2016

� With 2.2 GW installed to date; cumulative installations have surged to 7.5 GW as of May 2016

� Solar energy now represents 2.5% of total installed power capacity in India, up from 1.4% a year ago - and

was the fastest growing new renewable energy source

� The solar development pipeline now stands at 22 GW with over 13 GW under construction

� Module prices have declined slightly over the last three months

� Currently, 19 developers have bid below ₹5 (~$0.0735) for 2.9 GW worth of solar capacity across 46

projects. About 1.2 GW of these projects have signed PPAs

� Low bids through reverse auctions continue to be a major issue

List of Charts/Tables

India Solar Installations (MW)……………………………………………………………..……………….. 2

Utility-Scale Solar Projects in India…………………………………………………………….................. 3

India Solar Policy Map………..…….………………….…….…………………………………….……….. 4

Domestic Interest Rates for Solar Project Financing (%)………..…….….….…….………….……….. 5

All India Cumulative Solar Installations By Policy Type (MW)……………………..…………………… 6

India Solar Project Pipeline (MW)…………………………….……………………………………….…… 6

JNNSM Phase II, Batch 2 Tenders/Auction Results ………………….................................................. 8

JNNSM Phase II, Batch 3 Tenders/Auction Results …………………................................................. 9

JNNSM Phase II, Batch 4 Tenders/Auction Results …………………................................................. 10

Details of Funds Sanctioned Under Solar Park Program ………………….......................................... 12

Indian Module ASP……………………………………………………………………………...................... 13

Developers Bidding for Solar Projects Below ₹5……………………………….……..……..................... 14

Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India (₹/kWh)……………………………..……...……...................... 14

Clean Energy Cess Fund Status……………………………………………............................................ 15

Ministry-wise NCEF Fund Allocation by Year………………….………………………………................ 15

Developers Over 1% Market Share of Operating Projects in India…………………….….....…….….. 16

20 Developers Account for ~71% of the Project Pipeline in India………………………….....…….….. 16

India – Installed Power Capacity Mix (%)……………………………………………………....…..….….. 17

Karnataka – List of LoAs Issued……………………………………………..………………….…….….…. 23

Jharkhand – List of LoAs Issued……………………………………………..……………….....……….…. 24

India Solar Installations (MW) By Location (May 2016) ……………………………………………….….. 25

Page 2: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 2

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Cumulative solar installations in India crossed 7.5 GW as of May 2016 with about 2.2 GW already installed so far this

year, more than all of the solar installations in 2015. India’s solar project pipeline has now surpassed 22 GW with ~13

GW under construction and ~9 GW in the Request for Proposal (RfP) process. We are projecting solar installations in

India to total approximately 5 GW for calendar year 2016.

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9,50010,000

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10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

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2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

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MW

)

Annual Solar Installations

Cumulative Solar Installations

May 2016

Data derived from MNRE, Mercom Project Tracker & Public Sources Source: Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Installations (MW)

The Indian solar market is growing in size but many challenges remain, and the industry is asking: is it too much too

fast? Focusing on the positives first, the solar market clearly is much larger than ever before with over 22 GW in

various stages of development. The NDA government has shown a strong commitment towards solar and is working

hard to achieve its goal of 100 GW by 2022 – it has to be commended for getting the market moving as witnessed

with the growing numbers of reverse auctions.

However, there are several challenges on the ground that need to be addressed for sector to move from 2 GW a year

to a 10 GW a year market.

Low bidding levels through reverse auctions have been a major issue. We reported in our previous update that most

banks are unwilling to lend to projects below a ₹5 (~$0.0735)/kWh tariff. Since then, this subject has been discussed

widely, but the fact still remains that reverse auctions are driving bids to unsustainably low levels and lenders are

shying away from these risky projects. Developers are relying on optimistic assumptions to justify low bids but, unless

banks can be convinced that these assumptions are realistic, financing will continue to be an issue.

Government agencies are trying to meet installation goals as mandated, but it does not look like they have the

processes and infrastructure in place yet to do so. The auction process is constantly delayed, causing developers

grief; evacuation delays are costing developers; land acquisitions have long been an issue and may get worse; there

is a lot of hype around solar parks, but most are not completely developed; DISCOM finances are still a mess; banks

Page 3: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 3

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

saddled with non-performing assets (bad loans) are risk averse; and, several large developers are currently in the

market looking for buyers for their project pipelines due to these tough conditions.

Capacity (MW)

In-Operation

Solar PV 7,324.5

Solar Thermal 208.5

Total 7,533

Under Development

Solar PV 13,512

Solar Thermal 280

Total 13,792

Utility-Scale Solar Projects in India

Operational and Under Development

May 2016

Source: Mercom Capital Group

Another issue, which has been there since the beginning of India’s solar policy history, is the lack of technical

qualification requirements. The bar is very low when it comes to required competency and experience building solar

projects as long as you show the required finances and make the necessary deposits. There is a lack of incentives for

top performers and disincentives for companies that don’t execute. It is difficult to imagine inexperienced developers,

having the technical knowledge to factor in all the variables necessary to bid in a rational manner (though this can

also apply to pure-play developers).

Currently, there is a perception in the market that all of the risks have been dumped on the developers. While

developers go through a cumbersome regulatory regime to build a project, they don’t feel that the government has

done its part to make things efficient. A common theme is the hefty fines developers have to pay if they are delayed

on any of the multitude of steps in the project development process, but if the delays occur on the government side

the risk still falls on the developer. There is a urgent need for Government agencies to be held accountable for timely

execution. To address these issues MNRE recently invited comments by stakeholders on "Draft Guidelines for Tariff

Based Competitive Bidding Process for Grid Connected Solar PV Power Projects". Some of the issues that need to

be addressed are:

Delays – Some government agencies are overwhelmed and frequent delays are common which puts unnecessary

pressure on developers. On Time Payments – There is no mechanism to ensure timely payments which would bring

down borrowing costs and reduce risks. A billion dollar fund out of coal cess collections could act as a reserve

backstop against non-payments. Evacuation Delays should not become a risk to the developer and should be

compensated. Payment for grid unavailability should be compensated for instead of deferring it. Less hype, more

execution – many solar parks are not complete; parks need to be 100 percent complete before the projects are

auctioned and costs to develop in these parks must be priced competitively; the initial goal of governments for solar

parks was to simplify project development, not make a profit. Many developers feel that solar parks are actually

increasing the cost of projects as park fees are quite high compared to what the developers get in return.

Page 4: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 4

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

India Solar Policy Map

Batch 1

700 MW

(20 MW pending)

100 MW UP Solar Projects (UP) -

Auctioned

420 MW Bhadla PII Solar Park

(Rajasthan) - Auctioned

500 MW Gani Sakunala Solar

Park (AP) - Auctioned

500 MW Ghani Solar Park (AP) -

Auctioned

Batch 2 - Tranche I

3,000 MW

(Tender/Auction)

230 MW Rajasthan Solar Projects

(Rajasthan) - Tendered (100 MW

DCR - Auctioned)

Phase II

600 MW Pavagada Solar Park

(Karnataka) - Tendered

(500 MW Open - Auctioned)

400 MW Telangana Solar

Projects (Telangana) - Auctioned

250 MW Kadapa Solar Park (AP) -

Tendered

500 MW Ananthapuram Solar

Park TIV (AP) - Tendered

(400 MW Open - Auctioned)

440 MW UP Solar Park TIII (UP) -

125 MW Auctioned

315 MW Retendered

250 MW Gujarat Solar Park TII

(Gujarat) -

Shifted to Batch 4

500 MW Maharashtra Solar

Projects TI - Auctioned

Batch 3 - 2,000 MW

(Tender/Auction)

2,785 MW

1,000 MW Karnataka Solar

Projects TV (Karnataka) -

Tendered

250 MW Gujarat Solar Park TI

(Gujarat)) - Tendered

Batch 4 - 5,000 MW

(Tender/Auction)

1,900 MW

Approved 17 CPSUs under seven

different Ministries

Batch 5 - 1,000 MW

(CPSU)

2 MW West Godavari Solar

Projects (AP) - Tendered

Batch 6 - 50 MW

(High Visibility Areas)

Batch 1

620 MW

(270 MW CSP pending)

Batch 2

350 MW

(In Operation)

Phase I

Defence Establishments

300 MW

Canal Solar Projects

100 MW

Others

Solar Parks - 20 GWSECI - EPC Solar Projects

2,000 MW

MNRE Approved 33 Solar

Parks in 21 States with

19.9 GW

NTPC Self Owned

Projects - 10 GW

750 MW Ananthapuram

PII Solar Projects (AP) -

Tendered

250 MW Madhya Pradesh

Solar Projects (MP) -

Auctioned

260 MW Rajasthan Solar

Projects - Rajasthan

(Auctioned)

250 MW Ananthapuram PI

Solar Projects (AP) - 50

MW Under Construction

1,000 MW Pavagada Solar

Park (Karnataka)

Tendered

100 MW Chhattisgarh Solar

Projects TVI (Chhattisgarh) -

Tendered

160 MW Uttar Pradesh (Non-

Solar Park) (UP) - Tendered

50 MW Himachal Pradesh (Non-

Solar Park) (HP) - Tendered

35 MW Puducherry (Non-Solar

Park) (Puducherry) - Tendered

500 MW Odisha Solar Projects

(Odisha) - Tendered

500 MW Maharashtra Solar

Projects (Maharashtra) - Yet to

Announce

650 MW Andhra Pradesh Solar

Park (AP) - Yet to Announce

Page 5: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 5

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

A Challenging Banking Environment

The Indian banking sector is going through some challenging times, which could make borrowing much more difficult

in the short-term. According to Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data, bank loans worth ₹7 lakh crore (~$103 billion) were

under stress as of the end of 2015. Bank lending, on the other hand, grew to its lowest level in five months with only

9.2% year-over-year growth. In this tough atmosphere, banks are very hesitant to take on any debt that is considered

risky, especially with the low bids we are seeing in solar. There is no set rule which suggests tariffs below ₹5

(~$0.0735) cannot be financed, some banks are seriously looking at projects in the ₹4.5-5 (~$0.0662-0.0735) tariff

range, but it depends on the developer's ability to service debt, sound project economics, borrower credibility and

having a corporate parent with a strong balance sheet is always a big plus.

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

12.50

13.00

13.50

Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16

Highest

Average

Lowest

Domestic Interest Rates for Solar Project Financing (%)

Source: Mercom Capital Group

Policy Updates

JNNSM - Phase II Batch 1 (SECI)

Seven-hundred MW of solar projects were scheduled to be completed by May 2015 under this batch. We have

confirmation that, so far, 680 MW have been commissioned.

Page 6: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 6

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

1

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1,0

34

83

5

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0

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0

31

0

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100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

All India Cumulative Solar Installations By Policy Type (MW)

Cumulative Solar Installations

7,533 MW

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

India Solar Project Pipeline (MW)

Projects To Be Auctioned (~9 GW)

Projects Under Development (~13 GW)Total Pipeline ~22 GW

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

Page 7: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 7

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

JNNSM - Phase II Batch 2 State Specific Bundling Scheme (NTPC)

The MNRE has called for tenders under Batch 2 for all 3,000 MW of PV projects targeted under this scheme,

implemented by the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) through open competitive bidding. The Ministry has

been spreading these projects among various states including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Telangana

and Uttar Pradesh.

The auction results for 2,520 MW (1,000 MW in Andhra Pradesh, 520 MW in Rajasthan, 500 MW in Karnataka, 400

MW in Telangana and 100 MW in Uttar Pradesh) have been announced. Of the 2,520 MW, only 300 MW are under

the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) category. We have confirmation that PPAs have been signed for 1,330

MW to date and these projects are expected to be commissioned in early 2017.

Page 8: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 8

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

JNNSM Phase II, Batch 2 Tenders/Auction Results

Jan 2016

Jan 2016

JNNSM Phase-II, Batch-2, Tranche-I NTPC – 3,000 MW under State Specific Bundling Scheme

100 MW Uttar Pradesh (Non-Solar Park)

Uttar Pradesh

Open Category [10 MW x 10 Projects]

Adani (50 MW) @Rs.4.78/kWh

Azure (50 MW) @Rs.4.78/kWh

420 MW Bhadla Phase II Solar Park

Jodhpur, Rajasthan

Open Category [70 MW x 6 Projects]

Fortum (70 MW) @Rs.4.34/kWh

Rising Sun (140 MW) @Rs.4.35/kWh

Solairedirect (140 MW) @Rs.4.35/kWh

RattanIndia (70 MW) @Rs.4.36/kWh

230 MW Rajasthan (Non-Solar Park) Rajasthan

Open Category [10 MW x 13 Projects]

Results Pending

DCR Category [10 MW x 10 Projects]

Janardan Wind (20 MW) @Rs.5.06/kWh

Suzlon (60 MW) @Rs.5.07/kWh

Maharashtra Seamless (20 MW) @Rs.5.07/kWh

600 MW Pavagada Solar Park

Tumkur, Karnataka

Open Category [50 MW x 10 Projects]

RattanIndia (50 MW) @Rs.4.78/kWh

Adani (100 MW) @Rs.4.79/kWh

Fortum (100 MW) @Rs.4.79/kWh

ACME (100 MW) @Rs.4.79/kWh

Tata Power (100 MW) @Rs.4.79/kWh

ReNew Power (50 MW) @Rs.4.80/kWh

DCR Category [50 MW x 2 Projects]

Results Pending

400 MW Telangana (Non-Solar Park)

Telangana

Open Category [10 MW x 35 Projects]

ReNew Power (100 MW) @Rs.4.66/kWh

Karvy (50 MW) @Rs.4.67/kWh

Azure (100 MW) @Rs.4.67/kWh

Adani (50 MW) @Rs.4.67/kWh

ACME (50 MW) @Rs.4.67/kWh

DCR Category [10 MW x 5 Projects]

Adani (50 MW) @Rs.5.19/kWh

500 MW Ghani -Sakunala Phase II Solar Park

Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh

Open Category [350 MW x 1 Project]

SBG Cleantech (350 MW) @Rs.4.63/kWh

DCR Category [50 MW x 3 Projects]

Azure (100 MW) @Rs.5.12/kWh

Adani (50 MW) @Rs.5.13/kWh

Nov 2015

500 MW Ghani Solar Park

Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh

Open Category [50 MW x 10 Projects]

SunEdison (500 MW) @Rs.4.63/kWh

Dec 2015

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

Mar 2016

Apr 2016

May 2016

250 MW Kadapa Ultra Mega Solar Park

Kadapa, Andhra Pradesh

Open Category

Page 9: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 9

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

JNNSM - Phase II Batch 3 (SECI)

The Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) has called for tenders amounting to 2,785 MW under JNNSM Phase II

Batch 3, “State Specific VGF Scheme”. Auction results for 1,025 MW of projects to be developed in Andhra Pradesh,

Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh have been announced.

JNNSM Phase II, Batch 3 Tenders/Auction Results

JNNSM Phase-II, Batch-3 SECI - 2,000 MW under VGF Scheme

250 MW Gujarat Solar Park Projects, Tranche-II

Charanka, Gujarat

Shifted to Batch 4

1,000 MW Karnataka Solar Projects, Tranche-V

Karnataka

Open Category [10 MW x 95 Projects]

DCR Category [10 MW x 5 Projects]

500 MW Ananthapuram Solar Park, Tranche-IV

Andhra Pradesh

Open Category [50 MW x 8 Projects]

FRV Solar (100 MW) Rs.44.5 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

ACME (150 MW) Rs.55 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Tata Power (100 MW) Rs.73.9 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Azure (50 MW) Rs.74.49 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

DCR Category [50 MW x 2 Projects]

440 MW UP Solar Park, Tranche-III

Uttar Pradesh

Open Category – Bid Results for 125 MW

Solairedirect (75 MW) Rs.74.35 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

RattanIndia (50 MW) Rs.74.99 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

315 MW Retendered

Open Category [265 MW]

DCR Category [50 MW]

500 MW Maharashtra Solar Projects, Tranche-I

Maharashtra

Open Category [10 MW x 45 Projects]

Bhageria Industries (30 MW) (VGF-0) @Rs.4.41

Talettutayi Solar (50 MW) Rs.46 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Orange Renewable (100 MW) Rs.47.7 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Sepset Constructions (40 MW) Rs.48.9 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Krishna Windfarm Developers (10 MW) Rs.53.5 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

AMPL Cleantech (50 MW) Rs.53.7 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Welspun Renewables (100 MW) Rs.53.7 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Suzlon (70 MW) Rs.54 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

DCR Category [10 MW x 5 Projects]

Tata Power (30 MW) Rs.65 Lakh/MW/@Rs.4.43

Adani (20 MW) Rs.1 Crore/MW/@Rs.4.43

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

Jan 2016

Mar 2016

Apr 2016

May 2016

100 MW Chhattisgarh Solar Projects, Tranche-VI

Chhattisgarh

Open Category [10 MW x 10 Projects]

160 MW Uttar Pradesh (Non-Solar Park), Tranche-VII

Uttar Pradesh

Open Category [10 MW x 16 Projects]

50 MW Himachal Pradesh (Non-Solar Park),

Tranche-VIII, Himachal Pradesh

Open Category [10 MW x 5 Projects]

35 MW Puducherry (Non-Solar Park), Tranche-IX,

Puducherry

Open Category [5 MW x 7 Projects]

Page 10: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 10

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

JNNSM - Phase II Batch 4 (SECI)

Under this program, 5,000 MW of grid-connected solar PV projects with Viability Gap Funding (VGF) benefits will be

developed on a build-own-operate basis. The final guidelines for this batch were announced by MNRE in March. A

tender for 250 MW of projects to be developed in Gujarat under this scheme were announced. A new tender for 500

MW of projects in Odisha were announced recently. Tenders for another 1,150 MW are expected to be issued soon.

JNNSM Phase-II, Batch 4 Tenders/Auction Results

SECI - 5,000 MW under VGF Scheme

Solar Park/Projects Location/State Total MW MW Category Capacity Breakdown

225 Open40 MW x 5 Projects

25 MW x 1 Project

25 DCR 25 MW x 1 Project

450 Open 10 MW x 45 Projects

50 DCR 10 MW x 5 Projects

Maharashtra Solar Projects Maharashtra 500 to be tendered shortly

Andhra Pradesh Solar Park Andhra Pradesh 650 to be tendered shortly

Source: Mercom Capital Group

Charanka,

Gujarat250

Odisha Solar Projects, Tranche-II Odisha 500

Gujarat Solar Park Projects, Tranche-I

(Shifted from Batch 3)

JNNSM - Phase II Batch 5 - (SECI – CPSU)

Under Batch 5, there is a target to set up 1,000 MW of grid-connected solar PV power projects by the Central Public

Sector Undertakings (CPSUs) and Government of India organizations’ self-use or third-party sale or merchant sale,

with VGF over a span of three years from FY2014-15 to 2016-17, DCR will be mandatory.

MNRE has sanctioned the entire 1,000 MW of projects to be developed by 17 CPSUs under 7 different ministries. Of

the total 1,000 MW, a 200 MW project developed by NTPC is commissioned and another 50 MW worth is expected to

be commissioned by October 2016.

The remaining projects to be developed by other PSUs including Coal India, BHEL, GAIL and SECI are all expected

to be commissioned in 2017.

In the next phase, there is a proposed target to set up 5,000 MW of grid-connected solar PV power projects by the

CPSUs. This proposal is awaiting cabinet approval and is expected to be announced in a month or two.

Page 11: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

©2016 Mercom Capital Group, llc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. I www.mercomcapital.com I [email protected] I Page 11

Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Other Announced Solar Programs

Solar Projects by Defense Sector

Under this plan, grid-connected and off-grid solar PV power projects were proposed to be set up by Defense

Establishments under the Ministry of Defense with VGF over a span of five years, from 2014-2019. DCR will be

mandatory.

According to our sources, 340 MW have been approved by MNRE. The Ordnance Factory Board is developing 100

MW, Bharat Electronics Ltd. (BEL) – 50 MW, Bharat Dynamics Ltd. (BDL) – 25 MW, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

(HAL) – 15 MW and the Department of Defense is developing 150 MW, 10 MW of which is being developed by the

Border Security Force (BSF).

Auction results for 7 MW to be developed by the Ordnance Factory Board in the state of Maharashtra were

announced in March 2016.

Grid-Connected Solar PV Power Projects on Canal Banks and Canal Tops

The MNRE launched a program for the development of 100 MW of grid-connected solar PV power projects on canal

banks and canal tops. Projects under this scheme are under development in eight different states (50 MW – Canal

Banks, and 50 MW – Canal Tops).

According to sources, 49 MW of these projects are expected to be commissioned this year (10 MW in West Bengal,

25 MW in Gujarat, 6 MW in Andhra Pradesh, 3 MW in Kerala, and 5 MW in Punjab). Another 26 MW are expected to

be commissioned in 2017.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Ultra Mega Projects in Solar Parks

MNRE has approved 33 solar parks with a total capacity of 20,000 MW to be set up in 21 states; approximately

₹539.80 crore (~$79.4 million) has been approved for this purpose including SECI's fund handling charges of ₹4.60

crore (~$0.7 million).

(₹ in Million) (~$M)

1 Andhra Pradesh Ananthapuramu Solar Park 1500 AP Solar Power Corporation Pvt. Ltd. 1352.5 19.89

2 Andhra Pradesh Kurnool Solar Park 1000 AP Solar Power Corporation Pvt. Ltd. 902.5 13.27

3 Arunachal Pradesh Solar Park in Tezu, Lohit District 100Arunachal Pradesh Energy Development

Agency 2.5 0.04

4 ChhattisgarhSolar Park in Rajnandgaon, Janjgir Champa

districts500

Chhattisgarh Renewable Energy Development

Agency2.5 0.04

5 Gujarat Radhnesada Solar Park 700 Gujarat Power Corporation Limited 331.14 4.87

6 HaryanaSolar Park in Hisar, Bhiwani and

Mahindergarh districts500 Saur Urja Nigam Haryana Ltd (Sun Haryana) 2.5 0.04

7 Himachal PradeshSolar Park in Spiti Valley of Lahaul & Spiti

District1000 HP State Electricity Board Limited 2.5 0.04

8 Karnataka Pavagada Solar Park 2000Karnataka Solar Power Development

Corporation1002.5 14.74

9 Kerala Kasargode Solar park 200Renewable Power Corporation of Kerala

Limited22.5 0.33

10 Madhya Pradesh Rewa Ultra Mega Solar park 750 Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Limited 377.5 5.55

11 Madhya Pradesh Neemuch-Agar-Mandsaur Solar Park 1000 Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Limited 15 0.22

12 MaharashtraSolar Park in Sakri, Dhule district of

Maharashtra500 M/s Pragat Akshay Urja Ltd. 2.5 0.04

13 MaharashtraSolar Park in Dondaicha, district Dhule,

Maharashtra500 M/s K. P. Power Pvt. Ltd 2.5 0.04

14 MaharashtraSolar Park in Taluka Patoda, district Beed,

Maharashtra500

Maharashtra State Electricity Generating

Company Ltd.2.5 0.04

15 MeghalayaSolar park in West Jaintia Hills & East

Jaintia Hills districts20 Meghalaya Power Generation Corporation Ltd 2.5 0.04

16 NagalandSolar park in Dimapur, Kohima and New

Peren districts60

Directorate of New & Renewable Energy,

Nagaland2.5 0.04

17 Rajasthan Bhadla Phase-II Solar Park 680Rajasthan Solar Park Development Company

Ltd614.5 9.04

18 Rajasthan Bhadla Phase-III Solar Park 1000 Surya Urja Company of Rajasthan Ltd 461.5 6.79

19 Rajasthan Bhadla Phase-IV Solar Park 500M/s Adani Renewable Energy Park Rajasthan

Limited2.5 0.04

20 Rajasthan Fatehgarh Phase-1B Solar Park 421M/s Adani Renewable Energy Park Rajasthan

Limited2.5 0.04

21 Rajasthan Phalodi-Pokaran Solar Park 750M/s Essel Saurya Urja Company of Rajasthan

Limited2.5 0.04

22 Telangana Gattu Solar Park 500Telangana New & Renewable Energy

Development Corporation Ltd.27.5 0.40

23 Uttar PradeshSolar park in Jalaun, Allahabad, Mirzapur

and Kanpur Dehat districts600

Lucknow Solar Power Development

Corporation Limited209.76 3.08

24 UttarakhandSolar park in Sitarganj and kashipur

Industrial Area50

State Industrial Development Corporation

Uttarakhand Limited2.5 0.04

25 West BengalSolar park in East Mednipur, West

Mednipur, Bankura500

West Bengal State Electricity Distribution

Company Limited2.5 0.04

26 46.03 0.68

5397.93 79.38

Fund Handling charges to SECI

Total

Source: MNRE Mercom Capital Group

Details of Funds Sanctioned Under Solar Park Program

Sl.

No.State Name of the Solar Park

Capacity

(MW) Name of the Implementing Agency

Grand Total

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Other Updates

Solar Bids – Time to Move Past ₹5 (~$0.0735)

Aggressive bidding in reverse auctions is a challenge, especially at a time when banks are dealing with non-

performing assets (NPA) and are very risk averse. Banks are open to considering projects with a tariff of ₹5

(~$0.0735) and below, if they are convinced that the numbers work and the developer has the experience, skills and

resources to execute them (see investor section). Developers are split as to whether a project can be built at a tariff

below ₹5 (~$0.0735). Some developers are assuming project costs of ₹5 crores (~$0.7 million) or below in some

cases, while banks are not convinced that is possible. The feeling among lenders is that at these low tariff levels, the

margin for error is razor thin in a market where unpredictability is common and there is a fear of ending up with non-

performing assets. We are finding that there is a disconnect between the project cost assumptions of developers

(optimistic) and the conservative estimates of financial institutions. Banks need to get deeper in the trenches and

improve due diligence in order to narrow the ‘assumption’ gap. On the other hand, developers will need to sell their

optimistic assumptions to the banks in a way that is transparent in order to make lenders comfortable.

Module prices have declined slightly over the last three months. With the module costs accounting for about 60% of

project costs, the market is very sensitive to price movements. There are indications that Chinese module prices may

decline further in the 2nd

half of 2016 due to softening demand in China. Manufacturers complain that tier 2 and tier 3

Chinese panels are being dumped on the market to meet these low cost requirements. Interest rates have remained

about the same over the last three months but solar companies that have larger corporate parents with good balance

sheets definitely have the advantage of lower borrowing costs which can be about 2% or more cheaper.

0.45

0.47

0.49

0.51

0.53

0.55

0.57

0.59

May 2015 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 Feb 2016 May 2016

Indian Module ASP ($/W)

Indian Module ASPs have dropped by ~13% over the last 12 months

Source: Mercom Capital Group

Currently, 19 developers have bid for 2.9 GW of solar projects below ₹5 (~$0.0735). About 1.2 GW of these projects

have signed PPAs. After the ₹4.34 (~$0.0638)/kWh bid by Fortum, subsequent bids have been higher which is a

relief to many.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

4.00

4.10

4.20

4.30

4.40

4.50

4.60

4.70

4.80

4.90

5.00

Total Bid Capacity (MW) High Bid/Range (₹/kWh) Low Bid (₹/kWh)

Developers Bidding for Solar Projects Below ₹5To date 19 developers have bid for 2.9 GW of solar projects below ₹5

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

₹/kWh MW

5.99

8.73

7.74

6.90

7.99

9.33

7.12

5.64

7.72

7.16

7.56

6.045.89

8.60

5.98 5.99

4.36

4.80 4.67

5.59 5.50

5.25

7.87

6.666.45

6.85

8.94

6.71

5.05

7.29

6.68 6.68

5.495.17

7.02

5.09

5.57

4.63 4.634.34

4.785.00

4.78 4.66

5.08

4.69

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

AP

PII

Bih

ar

Ka

rna

taka

PII

I

Te

lan

ga

na

PI

Utt

ark

ha

nd

UP

B2

Ka

rna

taka

PIV

-No

v 1

4

MP

PII

I-Ju

l 1

5

Pu

nja

b P

II (

C1

)-F

eb

15

Pu

nja

b P

II (

C2

)-F

eb

15

Pu

nja

b P

II (

C3

)-F

eb

15

Te

lan

ga

na

PII

G1

-Au

g 1

5

Te

lan

ga

na

PII

G2

-Au

g 1

5

UP

B3

-Se

p 1

5

Pu

nja

b P

III-

Se

p 1

5

Utt

ark

ha

nd

(T

ype

-I)-

No

v 1

5

NS

M P

II B

2 (

AP

)-N

ov

15

NS

M P

II B

2 (

AP

)-D

ec

15

NS

M P

II B

2 (

Raj

)-Ja

n 1

6

NS

M P

II B

2 (

UP

)-Ja

n 1

6

Ha

rya

na

-Ja

n 1

6

NS

M P

II B

2 (

Ka

r)-A

pr

16

NS

M P

II B

2 (

Te

lan

ga

na

)-M

ay

16

Jha

rkh

and

-Ma

y 1

6

Ka

rna

taka

PV

(G

en

)-M

ay 1

6

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

Ta

riff

(₹

/kW

h)

High Tariff (₹/kWh) Low Ta ri ff (₹/kWh)

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

Note: AP Phase II - The range of first-year tariff offered by the successful bidders was Rs.5.25-5.99/kWh with a 3% per annum escalation for the first 10 years, then flat thereafter.

Solar Bids in Reverse Auctions in India (₹/kWh)

Page 15: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

NCEF

The National Clean Energy Fund (NCEF) was created in 2010 to fund the cost of research and innovative projects

using clean energy technologies by public and private sector entities. The fund has evolved under the NDA

administration and is now rebranded as Clean Environment Cess from the earlier Clean Energy Cess to include river

cleaning and other projects. The Cess, which was ₹50 (~$0.74) per ton when it was introduced in 2010, was raised to

₹100 (~$1.5) per ton in 2014 and to ₹200 (~$3) per ton in the 2015-16 budget. It was again doubled from ₹200

(~$3)/ton to ₹400 (~$6)/ton in the 2016-17 budget. Of the estimated $8 billion (~₹54,400 crore) collected under the

Clean Environment Cess, only about $3 billion (~₹20,400 crore) of it is expected to have been transferred to NCEF.

MNRE will only be allocated 23 percent of the total amount collected so far under the Clean Environment Cess. With

late tariff payment problems, rooftop subsidy delays and overcharged solar parks, it is inexplicable that such a large

amount is sitting unused. As we have mentioned several times, creation of a ‘reserve backstop fund’ against non-

payments or delayed payments by DISCOMs using NCEF funds could have an immediate positive impact,

eliminating offtaker risk, reducing interest rates and increasing lending.

Year% of Cess

Collected

% Diff - Funds

Collected vs. Spent

₹ in Crore US$ in Million ₹ in Crore US$ in Million % ₹ in Crore US$ in Million %

2010-11 1,066.46 156.83 0.00 0.00 - 0.00 0.00 -

2011-12 2,579.55 379.35 1,066.46 156.83 41% 160.80 23.65 6%

2012-13 3,053.19 449.00 1,500.00 220.59 49% 125.78 18.50 4%

2013-14 3,471.98 510.59 1,650.00 242.65 48% 1,218.78 179.23 35%

2014-15 5,393.46 793.16 4,700.00 691.18 87% 1,977.35 290.79 37%

2015-16 (RE) 12,623.33 1,856.37 4,700.00 691.18 37% 4,000.00 588.24 32%

2016-17 (BE) 26,148.20 3,845.32 8,447.00 1,242.21 32% 4,947.00 727.50 19%

Total 54,336.17 7,990.61 22,063.46 3,244.63 41% 12,429.71 1827.90 23%

RE - Revised Estimates; BE - Budget Estimates Note: Dollar-Rupee conversions were calculated at $1 = ₹68

Source: PIB, MNRE, Ministry of Finance Mercom Capital Group

Clean Environment Cess Fund Status

Clean Energy Cess

[Clean Environment Cess]

Collected

Amount

Transferred to NCEF

NCEF Fund

Allocation to MNRE

Ministry/

Year

₹ in CroreUS$ in

Million₹ in Crore

US$ in

Million₹ in Crore

US$ in

Million₹ in Crore

US$ in

Million₹ in Crore

US$ in

Million

2010-11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

2011-12 160.80 23.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 59.95 8.82 220.75 32.46

2012-13 125.78 18.50 0.00 0.00 110.65 16.27 10.00 1.47 246.43 36.24

2013-14 1,218.78 179.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,218.78 179.23

2014-15 1,977.35 290.79 0.00 0.00 110.64 16.27 0.00 0.00 2,087.99 307.06

2015-16 (RE) 4,000.00 588.24 1,000.00 147.06 0.00 0.00 247.09 36.34 5,247.09 771.63

2016-17 (BE) 4,947.00 727.50 2,500.00 367.65 0.00 0.00 1,000.00 147.06 8,447.00 1,242.21

Total 12,429.71 1,827.90 3,500.00 514.71 221.29 32.54 1,317.04 193.68 17,468.04 2,568.83

Source: PIB, MNRE, Ministry of Finance Mercom Capital Group

Note: Dollar-Rupee conversions were calculated at $1 = ₹68

Ministry-wise NCEF Fund Allocation by Year

MNRE

Ministry of Water

Resources, River

Development & Ganga

Rejuvenation

Ministry of Drinking

Water & Sanitation

Ministry of Environment

& ForestsTotal

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Market Share

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

We

lsp

un

Su

nE

diso

n

AC

ME

Ad

ani

Az

ure

NT

PC

ReN

ew

Po

we

r

Hin

du

sta

n P

owe

r

Rel

ian

ce S

ola

r

Fir

st

Sol

ar

Torr

ent

Pow

er

Ma

hage

nco

Esse

l

Ma

lpa

ni

Gro

up

Shap

oorj

i Pa

llo

nji

Sola

ire

dir

ect

Uja

as

Ener

gy

Wa

aree

Lan

co

Developers With Over 1% Market Share of Operating Projects in India 19 developers account for approximately 55% of the projects in operation

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

Large scale project development in India is highly fragmented. There are about 300 developers with at least 5 MW or

more in the project pipeline, including recent auction winners who are expected to sign PPAs shortly.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Re

Ne

w P

ower

Su

nE

dis

on

Ad

ani

AC

ME

Azu

re

NT

PC

Su

zlo

n

My

trah

Sky

Pow

er

SB

G C

lea

nte

ch

We

lsp

un

Her

o Fu

ture

En

erg

ies

Tat

a P

ow

er

So

lair

ed

ire

ct

Ra

tta

nIn

dia

Hin

du

stan

Po

wer

OP

G P

ow

er

Fo

rtu

m

Pho

ton

Ch

ari

sma

En

erg

y

20 Developers Account for Approximately 72% of the Project Pipeline in India Some of these developers do not have any operating projects yet

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Installed Power Capacity Mix

The government’s push towards solar is beginning to show results. As of the end of FY2015-16 with over 7 GW of

solar energy installed to date, solar represented 2.5% of the net installed capacity in India - up from 1.4% a year ago -

and was the fastest growing new energy source. Solar accounted for 17.4% of all renewable energy generation in

FY2015-16 compared to 10.5% in FY2014-15. Renewable energy sources including small hydro grew from 13.1% in

FY2014-15 to 14.4% in FY2015-16.

Coal

61.3%

Hydro

14.1%Gas

8.1%

Nuclear

1.9%

Diesel

0.3%

Wind

8.8%

Solar

2.5%

Bio-Power

1.6%

Small Hydro

1.4%

Waste to Power

0.04%

Renewable Energy

14.4%

India - Installed Power Capacity Mix (%)Renewables comprise 14% of India's total installed capacity, with solar accounting for 2.5%. Among

renewables, solar accounts for almost 17% of the installed capacity.

Source: MNRE, CEA Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Industry Feedback

Below are the takeaways from our recent conversations with major developers, manufacturers and investors.

Developers

• Several developers are not bidding at the current low levels and are waiting for the market to stabilize.

• According to developers, many projects are coming up for sale; the auctions are extremely competitive and

winning bidders are finding it tough to get funding.

• Bid viability depends on location. According to a few developers, bids below ₹5 (~$0.0735) are currently

viable in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and some southern states. In all other states, the economics

for bids below ₹5 (~$0.0735) are not feasible.

• Some developers are seeing bid prices stabilize.

• Most developers believe that SunEdison’s issues will not affect the larger solar market.

• There are a lot of delays in the auction process, starting from the initial announcement and continuing to

signing PPAs, making on-time execution a challenge.

• Solar parks are expensive at ₹35-40 lakhs/MW (~$51,471-58,824/MW) and are delayed in many cases. The

Uttar Pradesh solar park, for example, is not complete and has no roads. Developers question why auctions

are announced in solar parks that are not complete.

• Instead of solar parks, some developers would rather have the government provide land to the developers.

The high costs of expensive solar parks are making project economics tougher.

• Developers are critical of SECI’s handling of auctions.

• Bids in Jharkhand are a concern considering insolation levels, land issues, DISCOM ratings, and law and

order issues.

• Trackers are becoming common and improving project economics.

• Domestic interest rates were between 10.5-12%.

• Buyers’ credit and refinancing are helping bring borrowing costs down by 2-3%.

• Some developers believe the sector is headed towards consolidation as projects start coming up for sale.

• Rajasthan has had some grid failures resulting in 1-1.5% loss in generation for some projects. Generally,

grid availability has been over 95%.

• Payments are usually on time except in Tamil Nadu and a few instances in Rajasthan.

• Project costs vary between ₹5-6 crores/MW (~$735,294-882,353/MW) with another ₹50 lakhs

(~$73,529)/MW for trackers.

• Developers mentioned that there is a disconnect between banks when it comes to solar project costs, and

banks are out of touch when it comes to realities on the ground.

• There is some concern over VGF projects as they are taxable and open up their books to scrutiny. Also,

there is worry that if a new government takes office, that they may not honor the current payment structure.

• There is a consensus that CERC benchmarking is off and should be done by states (like the wind sector)

instead of one tariff for the whole country. This would give states better guidance.

• There is some fear about how NPAs will affect the solar sector.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

• Land acquisition and payment security need to be addressed to attract foreign investors.

• With low bids and razor thin margins, it is imperative for the government to address payment security and

strict timelines. In addition, curtailment and evacuation issues need to be factored in the PPAs, without

which IRR calculations will be meaningless.

• Developers have to deal with too many government agencies (state nodal agencies, offtakers, implementing

agencies, etc.) which makes on-time execution challenging. Developers are of the opinion that the

government is quick to penalize but does not look at the big picture, that are creating delays and hurdles

with unnecessary bureaucracy.

• Some companies are bidding aggressively because they are trying to build their pipelines quickly to reach a

critical mass and look for an exit.

Rooftop Installers

• Most of the growth in rooftop space is in commercial and industrial segments. Industrial power tariffs, which

are 20-30% more expensive, make solar attractive for this segment.

• Many rooftop customers feel that 25-year PPAs are too long; some want PPAs as short as five years.

• Commercial and industrial rooftop customers are more knowledgeable than residential customers about

solar and its benefits.

• Interest rates vary from 9.9-12%.

• Net metering implementation is haphazard. It takes six to eight months in some states just to process

paperwork. Some states have unsustainably high net metering rates, which may lead to rate cuts in the near

future.

• There is a large demand for accelerated depreciation (AD) among commercial and industrial customers,

which will not be available beginning next year.

• Timely disbursement of subsidies is a problem; in some instances, they are delayed two to four years.

• The rooftop solar sector creates a lot of jobs. Installers see a need for government support through

subsidies and AD for two to three years, after which they are confident that the market will take off without

incentives. Without subsidies or AD it will be a difficult road ahead.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Manufacturers

• The market for domestic manufacturing has picked up.

• There is a long time cycle (~18 months) between tenders and panel delivery, with a lot of delays in between.

• DCR cell functional manufacturing capacity is very small at 500 MW against 1.2 GW on paper. Most of the

production lines are old and need to be upgraded. Delays are expected due to this fact, causing concern

among developers who might get hit with penalties as a result.

• Domestically manufactured cells with lower prices are selling out first. Prices can vary between 10-15%,

depending on the supplier, after negotiations.

• Price pressure is high due to aggressive bidding.

• Average selling prices (ASP) for modules are in the $0.46-0.49/W (~₹31 -33/W) range. ASP’s for DCR

modules are $0.52-0.60/W (~₹35-41/W).

• ASP’s for solar cells are $0.41-0.42/W (~₹28-29/W) for DCR projects. Chinese Tier 1 cells are available for

$0.28-0.33/W (~₹19-22/W) depending on order volume.

• Manufacturers are not expecting prices to drop significantly for the rest of 2016.

• Net margins were 0-10%.

• Capacity utilization was reported at 80-100%.

• Local manufacturers allege that Chinese modules are being dumped at ~$0.47/W (~₹32/W), below the

$0.50/W (~₹34/W) price sold in China.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Investors

• Lenders are in a wait-and-see mode due to aggressive bids.

• With some of the recent troubles in the market, banks want to do a better job when it comes to

promoter/developer due diligence.

• Some lenders think it will be difficult for developers to raise money at the current low tariff levels unless they

increase the equity ratio.

• Banks are concerned that developers are not disclosing actual margins to lenders, which is making it tough

when it comes to decision making.

• There is a difference of ₹0.5 -1 crore (~$0.07-0.15 million) between project cost estimates from banks and

those of developers.

• Some banks may require a greater portion of equity upfront in the future.

• Some banks are comfortable lending at ₹4.5-5 (~$0.0662-0.0735) tariff levels as long as they are confident

in developers’ experience, capacity to execute and ability to repay debt.

• The IRR expectations of foreign developers are much lower than those of domestic developers.

• Generally, banks feel that developer assumptions are too optimistic. They want to see successful financial

closings for these low bid projects before venturing in.

• There is a lot of talk about refinancing projects to bring down the cost of financing.

• Buyer’s credit is helping developers a lot. RBI has allowed foreign investors to extend three years’ credit to

developers with the help of an Indian bank which could be extended two years.

• According to some financial institutions, there is no margin for error when executing projects.

• Standard domestic interest rates are hovering around 11-12%. Companies with a good balance sheet can

borrow at 10.75-11%, and large conglomerates can borrow at less than 10%.

• Capacity factor has not been an issue; projects are achieving an average of 18-19% without trackers and

21-23% with trackers.

• Banks are still waiting to see the impact of UDAY. They recognize that it may solve short term liquidity

issues but are unsure if DISCOMs will start accumulating debt again.

• According to most banks, rooftop projects are too small to finance. Rooftop PPA bankability, roof structures

and the strength of contracts are still an issue.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

State Programs

Uttar Pradesh: There are about 90 MW of solar projects in operation under Uttar Pradesh State Solar Policy and

about 320 MW of projects under construction. Of this, 105 MW are expected to be commissioned in 2016 and 215

MW in 2017.

Andhra Pradesh: Andhra Pradesh DISCOMs have signed PPAs to develop 619 MW of solar projects with first year

tariffs ranging from ₹5.25-5.99 (~$0.0772-0.0881)/kWh and 3% annual escalation for 10 years. Of these, 506 MW

have been commissioned to date and the remaining 113 MW are expected to be commissioned by the second half of

2016.

Punjab:

1. Phase I - Punjab signed PPAs for 250 MW of solar PV projects in December of 2013 with average tariffs

ranging between ₹8.20-8.40 (~$0.1206-0.1235)/kWh. Of these, about 223 MW have been commissioned.

2. Phase II - There were 277 MW of solar projects with signed PPAs in 2015 under three categories; 1-4 MW

(29 MW), 5-24 MW (100 MW) and 25-50 MW (95 MW). Another 53 MW of rooftop projects are also

estimated to be developed under this phase. Of this, 189 MW including 12 MW of rooftop projects, have

been commissioned. The remaining 88 MW are expected to be commissioned by the end of 2016.

3. Phase III - Punjab also issued RfPs for 500 MW of projects in June; five developers have won the bids with

tariffs ranging from ₹5.09-5.98 (~$0.0749-0.0879)/kWh. PPAs were signed in December of 2015 and the

projects are expected to be commissioned early in 2017.

Madhya Pradesh: Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Limited (RUMSL), a joint venture of SECI and Madhya Pradesh Urja

Vikas Nigam (MPUVNL), invited online bids to select developers for the 750 MW (3 X 250 MW) Rewa Ultra Mega

Solar Project under the Open Category in Gurh Tehsil, District Rewa in Madhya Pradesh. Madhya Pradesh Power

Management Company Limited (MPPMCL) & Delhi Metro Railway Corporation (DMRC) are the proposed power

purchasers while International Finance Corporation (IFC) is the Lead Transaction Adviser.

Kerala: A Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) tender for 200 MW of solar projects through tariff-based competitive

bidding for Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) of KSEB has been cancelled. A new tender is expected in the

near future.

Haryana: Haryana Power Purchase Centre on behalf of Uttar Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam (UHBVN) and Dakshin

Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam (DHBVN) invited tenders for 152 MW of solar projects. The list of bidders is finalized and

PPAs are expected to be signed shortly.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Karnataka:

1. Under Batch 3, PPAs were signed for projects totaling 50 MW. A 23 MW project has been commissioned

and the remaining projects are expected to be commissioned by the end of 2016.

2. Under Batch 4, Karnataka Renewable Energy Development Ltd. (KREDL) signed PPAs for 500 MW in early

2015; these projects are expected to be commissioned by the end of 2016.

3. Under Batch 5, tenders were issued for 1,200 MW. This tender was unique as it sought bids for up to 20 MW

on a taluk-by-taluk (county-by-county) basis across 60 taluks in an effort to distribute solar capacity evenly

across the state. One hundred MW of capacity was reserved for solar cell and module manufacturers

located in Karnataka. Letters of Award (LoA) have been signed for 910 MW by bidders with tariffs up to

₹5.50 (~$0.0809)/kWh under the general category and up to ₹6.10 (~$0.0897)/kWh from local solar cell and

module manufacturers. The winning bidders have 60 days to sign PPAs. Projects of 260 MW in 14 taluks

which had been retendered have now been awarded LoAs.

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.9

6.1

6.3

6.5

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ad

ani

(13

Pro

ject

s)

He

ro F

utu

re E

ne

rgie

s (9

Pro

ject

s)

Re

Ne

w P

ow

er

(9 P

roje

cts)

Ess

el (

4 P

roje

cts)

OP

G P

ow

er

(4 P

roje

cts)

Ad

ity

a B

irla

(3

Pro

ject

s)

Firs

t So

lar

(3 P

roje

cts)

My

tra

h (

3 P

roje

cts)

Asi

an F

ab T

ec

(2 P

roje

cts)

Ath

a G

rou

p (

1 P

roje

ct)

GR

T (

1 P

roje

ct)

Sun

Ed

iso

n (

1 P

roje

ct)

Ris

ha

bh

Bu

ild

wel

l (1

Pro

ject

)

Ra

ys P

ow

er

Exp

ert

s (1

Pro

ject

)

Ka

rvy

Co

nsu

lta

nts

(1

Pro

ject

)

Asi

an F

ab T

ech

(1

Pro

ject

)

Kri

shi

Tech

nlo

gie

s

Jin

da

l Alu

min

ium

(1

Pro

ject

)

Suk

hb

ir S

ola

r E

ne

rgy

(1

Pro

ject

)

GS

Co

nsu

ltan

ts (

1 P

roje

ct)

Tat

a P

ow

er

(3 P

roje

cts)

Em

mve

e (

3 P

roje

cts)

Swe

lect

En

erg

y (

1 P

roje

ct)

Mic

rosu

n S

ola

r (1

Pro

ject

)

General Category Module Manufacturer

Category

Total Bid Capacity (MW) High Bid/Range (₹/kWh) Low Bid (₹/kWh)

Karnataka: List of LoAs Issued to the Successful Bidders for 1,170 MW Solar Projects in 60 TaluksIn the general category bids ranged from ₹4.69 - ₹5.50

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

₹/kWhMW

Telangana: The Southern Power Distribution Company of Telangana (TSSPDCL) invited 2,000 MW of solar bids on

a build-own-operate basis in April 2015. PPAs were signed for 1,988 MW in February and March of 2016. These

projects are expected to be commissioned in the second half of 2017.

Tamil Nadu: According to our sources, Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation (Tangedco), the state

utility, has signed PPAs at a tariff of ₹7.01 (~$0.1031)/kWh with the projects expected to be commissioned by March

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

of 2016. We have confirmed that 982 MW have been commissioned. Projects commissioned after April 2016 are

expected to receive a tariff of ₹5.10 (~$0.0750)/kWh.

Uttarakhand:

1. The Government of Uttarakhand signed PPAs in March 2015 to develop 30 MW of solar projects through a

tariff-based competitive bidding process. All of these projects were commissioned by March 2016.

2. Uttarakhand Renewable Energy Development Agency (UREDA) signed PPAs to develop 181.4 MW of

projects in March 2016. These projects have a strict deadline of October 2016 for commissioning.

Jharkhand: Jharkhand Renewable Energy Development Agency (JREDA) had issued a tender to develop 1,200 MW

of solar projects in December of 2015. The Letter of Intent (LoI) have been recently awarded for 1,101 MW.

4.7

4.8

4.9

5.0

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Suzlon

(2 Projects)

OPG Power

(1 Project)

Renew

Power

(2 Projects)

Madhav

Infraprojects

(2 Projects)

Karvy Solar

Power

(1 Project)

ReNew

Power

(12 Projects)

SunEdison

(3 Projects)

Suzlon

(3 Projects)

OPG Power

(2 Projects)

ACME

(1 Project)

Adani

(1 Project)

Category I (1-25 MW) Category II (26-500 MW)

MW Total Bid Capacity (MW) High Bid/Range (₹/kWh) Low Bid (₹/kWh)

Jharkhand: List of LoAs issued to successful bidders for 1,101 MW across 30 ProjectsReNew Power was by far the most s uccessful bidder bagging almost 50% of the total projects approved

Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016)

₹/kWh

Odisha: Green Energy Development Corporation of Odisha (GEDCOL) invited a tender for the development of 20

MW of grid-connected solar PV projects in Odisha. The last date for bid submission is June 4, 2016.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400

Arunachal Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

Tripura

Chandigarh

West Bengal

Goa & UT

Kerala

Jharkhand

New Delhi

Haryana

Uttarakhand

Odisha

Chhattisgarh

Uttar Pradesh

Karnataka

Maharashtra

Punjab

Telangana

Madhya Pradesh

Andhra Pradesh

Gujarat

Tamil Nadu

Rajasthan

Source: Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Installations (MW) By Location (May 2016)

Total Solar Installations

7,533 MW

Note: Dollar-Rupee conversions were calculated at $1 = ₹68

Page 26: Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update · Mercom Capital Group India Solar Market Update Source: Mercom Capital Group (May 2016) India Solar Policy Map Batch 1 700 MW (20

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Acronyms and Abbreviations

AD Accelerated Depreciation

ASP Average Selling Price

BDL Bharat Dynamics Limited

BEL Bharat Electronics Limited

BHEL Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited

CEA Central Electricity Authority

CERC Central Electricity Regulatory Commission

CPSU Central Public Sector Undertaking

CSP Concentrated Solar Power

CY Calendar Year

DCR Domestic Content Requirement

DHBVN Dakshin Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam

DISCOM Power Distribution Company

DMRC Delhi Metro Railway Corporation

FY Financial Year

GAIL Gas Authority of India Limited

GEDCOL Green Energy Development Corporation of Odisha Limited

GW Gigawatt

HAL Hindustan Aeronautics Limited

IFC International Finance Corporation

IRR Internal Rate of Return

JNNSM Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission

JREDA Jharkhand Renewable Energy Development Agency

KREDL Karnataka Renewable Energy Development Limited

KSEB Kerala State Electricity Board

kWh Kilowatt-hour

LoA Letter of Award

LoI Letter of Intent

MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy

MPPMCL Madhya Pradesh Power Management Company Limited

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

MPUVNL Madhya Pradesh Urja Vikas Nigam Limited

MW Megawatt

NCEF National Clean Energy Fund

NDA National Democratic Alliance

NPA Non-performing Assets

NTPC National Thermal Power Corporation

PPA Power Purchase Agreement

PSU Public Sector Undertaking

PV Photovoltaic

RBI Reserve Bank of India

REC Renewable Energy Certificate

RfP Request for Proposal

RPO Renewable Purchase Obligation

RPSSGP Rooftop PV & Small Solar Power Generation Program

RUMSL Rewa Ultra Mega Solar Limited

SECI Solar Energy Corporation of India

SPPD Solar Power Park Developer

TANGEDCO Tamil Nadu Generation and Distribution Corporation

TSSPDCL Southern Power Distribution Company of Telangana

UDAY Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana

UHBVN Uttar Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam

UREDA Uttarakhand Renewable Energy Development Agency

VGF Viability Gap Funding

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

About Mercom Capital Group

Mercom Capital Group, llc., is a global communications and consulting firm focused on Cleantech, Healthcare IT and

financial communications. Mercom’s consulting division advises companies on new market entry, overall strategic

decision-making, and provides custom market research. Mercom delivers highly respected industry market

intelligence reports covering Solar Energy, Smart Grid and Healthcare IT. Our reports provide timely industry

happenings and ahead-of-the-curve analysis specifically for C-level decision making. Mercom’s communications

division helps companies and financial institutions build powerful relationships with media, analysts, local

communities and strategic partners. To receive Mercom’s popular market intelligence reports,

visit: http://www.mercomcapital.com.

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Mercom Capital Group

India Solar Market Update

Mercom Capital Group, llc

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DISCLAIMER © 2016 by Mercom Capital Group, llc. All rights reserved. Strictly no redistribution allowed without prior written

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