MenntoMUN 2006

Introduction

The Middle East is a region of stunning beauty, fascinating history and some of the richest cultural heritage in the world. It is also however a place of incredible tragedy and division, where international politics have mixed with religion and tribal strife for thousands of years.These contrasts make the task of writing a detailed yet short and neutral account of the Middle East conflict an almost impossible mission.

Balance is the first challenge. With religion and so many personal tragedies involved, emotions run high, and the length of the conflict means that nobody is neutral, everyone has heard of this conflict ever since they were young, and have formed an opinion on the situation, almost unconsciously.

The second one is level of detail. The long history makes the amount of events, people, documents and policies involved monumental. There are scholars that have devoted their entire lives to the documentation of this conflict, and even they do not have all the details. But as you will discover, in the Middle East, details are everything. The challenge is then to include just enough detail to give sufficient understanding of the conflict as a whole.

The third challenge is history. If including too much of the conflict it is easy to loose sight of the problems of today. However, as said, in the Middle East detail is everything, so some historical perspective must be retained.

I will try and face these challenges by trying to include both sides of the story when applicable. I will not use terms such as “terrorists” or “criminals” unless they were uttered by one of the actors themselves, and be as neutral as possible when describing the different groups involved. I will not include dates or quotations from documents or describe them in detail, but rather refer to them if they are relevant. I will also make a short historical review, where main emphasis is on the recent history, and less on the ancient.

The guide will be divided in four sections. First I will give an account of the conflict itself, its history and the build-up to today’s crisis. Then I will briefly describe the three countries that are mostly related to the current situation in Lebanon: Israel, Syria and Lebanon. Following this I will describe the different groups within these countries, such as Hezbolla, Hamas, Palestinian, PLO, Shiites, Druze etc. Finally there will be a short timeline describing the development of the current conflict followed by my analysis and conclusions.

MenntoMUN 2006The History

As mentioned, when committing to writing the history of the Middle East conflict, you face a challenge of swamping in its length and complexity. I will therefore go very briefly over the earliest events of the history of the region, before going more into detail in the later sections, especially from the 1880’s and onwards.

To answer “who started it” in the Middle East conflict is just as easy as answering what came first of the chicken and the egg. In other words, it’s impossible.

You may not seewhat all this has to do with Lebanon at first, but bear with me. As said, within the Middle East, details and context are everything.

Tradition has it that the Arab – Israeli conflict dates back as far as the times of the Genesis, the first book of the “books of Moses” in the Bible. There Abraham, considered as both the forefather of the Jews and the Abraham had two sons. One with his wife, Sara, named Isaac, which was to become forefather of the Jews, the other with the slavewoman Hagar, named Ishmael, who was to become the forefather of the Arabs. They did not really get along,

to say the least, and hence the conflict was started.

Several key events and developments have since shaped the history of the region and that of the conflict.

60BC-600ADFirst the Romans. Up until the invasion of the Romans, the demographics in the region had remained stable for a very long time. The Jews rebelled three times however against Roman rule, and in the end, in 135 AD, the Romans laid Jerusalem in ruins and made it illegal for Jews

to enter the city. These rebellions marked the beginning of what is known

as “the Jewish Diaspora,” where thousands of Jews were scattered all over the world, both from being refugees from the Roman campaigns, but also from being deported.

600-1100Then the birth of Islam. Until the start of Islam in the early 600’s AD, the Arabs did not really have a common identity. Islam united many of the Arab tribes and nations, and made them a formidable force that within one hundred years grew into a mighty empire that among many things conquered Jerusalem in 682. It also made Jerusalem into the holy city

for yet another world religion, making it its third most holy city in Islam after Mecca and Medina, citing it as the site where the holy prophet Mohammad was taken up to heaven. Just to complicate matters, this site allegedly is at the very excact same place as the Jewish temple used to

be. So not only the same city, but also the

same site.

1100-1300Then comes the Crusades. The

crusades, first launched in 1095 by the Pope had a profound impact on the people

of the region, and the perception by Islam of Christianity and vice versa. The crusader period lasted around 200 years and created lasting Christian communities in the region, mainly in Lebanon, as well as changing the importance of its cities, and making the Islamic nations very insistent on the principle of keeping what they considered Muslim lands whole and undivided by foreigners.

1400-1800The next thing to have an impact was the introduction of liberalism. In Europe, social and political changes from the 15th century onwards created a whole new society that made the European powers capable of overtaking the Islamic world as the dominant centers of culture and power.

MenntoMUN 2006This culminated with the industrial revolution that together with the imperialistic and colonial policies pursued by the European states firmly placed them in the forefront of world politics. The Islamic nations never managed to follow suit for many reasons, one of which were their more rigid social and political norms and systems.

1700-1900The creation of Political Islam is next. By the end of the 18th century, several Muslim scholars started arguing that the reason of the decay of the Muslimnations were that they had “fallen from grace” and no longer lived by the principles of true Islam. They argued in favor of return to the morals and society of early Islam, the expulsion of any western influences and technology, and the pursuit of “Jihad,” holy war against the enemies of Islam. Though many of these ideas have existed within Islam ever since its foundation, they gained renewed weight and prominence through the many schools of thought that grew forth in this period. Many see it as a reaction to western style liberalism. One of the more prominent schools was “Wahhabism,” based on the teachings of Muhammad ibn al-Wahhab . It got its prominence after the house

of Saudi, the current royal family of Saudi Arabia adopted it when they were the main opposition group on the Arabic peninsula against the Ottoman Empire in the early 20th century.

1880 - 1918The creation of Zionism. In the 19th century, a new class of secular, i.e. non-religious Jews grew forth in

Europe and the U.S. These Jews over time developed

a new identity, more based on nationalism and common

cultural values rather than religion and later developed the goal of creating a Jewish state. Initially, however, they focused on helping Jews wanting to move back to Palestine getting access from the local governments, and providing loans and funding for establishing Jewish settlements. Many Jews in Europe at the time were experiencing so-called “pogroms,” in which Jews, predominantly in Russia but also elsewhere were persecuted, and many wanted to flee and seek a new home in the Middle East.

1918-1939The First World War became a turning point both for the Arabic and Jewish communities. It marked the end of the Ottoman Empire, which had dominated the

region for hundreds of years, and opened up for the creation of several new states in its wake. The problem was only that the British, seeking support from various communities in the Middle East in order to fight the Ottomans, had promised support in return for the claims in Palestine of both the Jews and the Arabs. The Jews through what was known as the “Balfour declaration,” declaring support for a “Jewish national home” and the Arabs through letters sent to a Saudi prince by a British official, describing how the British saw the development in the Middle East after the war. However, these letters never spoke of any Jewish state or national home.

When the war was over, and the British were given Palestine as a protectorate by the newly established League of Nations, little was done to fulfill any of the promises, leaving both Jews and Arabs feeling betrayed. Jewish immigration during this period

greatly escalated, prompting the British to set a limit and then later a total ban on Jewish immigration.

During the following period, several militant Jewish groups such as

the Haganah and the Irgun formed to provide protection for the Jewish settlements which were coming under more and more intense attacks by militant Arabs who

MenntoMUN 2006feared their presence in the region. It should also be noted that the British used these organizations for their own purposes to help keep Arab rebellions down.

1939-1945The Second World War to a large degree put a freeze to the situation for a while. Immigration of Jews was totally banned, but the British still allowed thousands of Palestinian Jews to serve with the British military, giving them training and experience they later would use to their benefit in the war against the Arabs. Arabs would never serve to the same extent with the Allied forces.

1945-1949After the second world war, as the British were still dragging their feet on a solution for Palestine, extremists within the Jewish communities, such as the so-called “Stern-gang” conducted raids against British

troops and offices, killing several people. The British tried to broker peacebetween the Arab and Jewish communities and stop the bombings and attacks, but without any success.

Following this, the British withdrew from their mandate and a solution was sought with the UN. The General Assembly then approved in 1947 the Palestine Partition Plan, which would give the Jews 55% of the land, indicated in blue on the map below and the Arabs 45%. The Jewish communities more or less accepted the plan, but the Arabs completely rejected it.

During the war that followed, the Jews founded the state of Israel, and expanded their territory by another 26%, what is shown in red on the map to the right. Also in this period, tens of thousands of Jews, some chased from Arab countries, especially Iraq and Egypt as a reaction to the war and some from Europe and the US came to Israel, dramatically increasing its population. Many of these chose to serve with the newly formed Israel Defense Force, which by the end of the war numbered some 100,000, by far outnumbering the opposing Arab forces.

Aftermath of the war

Hundreds of thousands of local arabs, some say as many as 8-900 000, also left their homes. Some were expelled by the Jews, some were told by their own leaders to leave, as they believed they would be able return shortly after they had won an easy victory, and others simply left out of fear of what might happen if they

didn’t. Of course, most of them never returned, and these Arabs became the first of the people

we today know as Palestinians.

At this point, the British were more than eager to leave the region. Others, such as the French had already left.

After the First World War when the British

got Israel and Jordan as a mandate, the French got what today is Lebanon and Syria. France has long

historical ties to Lebanon, but in 1943, during the

Second World War when France was occupied by the Germans, Lebanon was granted independence by the exiled French government lead by Charles de Gaulle.

After the Israeli war of independence in 1949, the Arabs that had left Israel were looking for new homes. Most of them settled in the west-bank and Gaza, hoping for the opportunity to return to their homes shortly. Until they did,

MenntoMUN 2006they were to be taken care of by an UN agency specially appointed for the palestinian arabs, known as the UNRWA, the United Nations Relief and Work Agency. The Israeli’s would not take them back however, and the other Arab nations of the region were also reluctant to take them in, both because they feared that their great numbers would tip the often delicate balance of power within their own countries and because removing the refugees would mean that they implicitly accepted that they would never return and that the state of Israel was there to stay. Hence the Palestinians, as they began to be referred to, were doomed to an excistance in refugee camps.

1950-1970The following years saw the growth of a pan-arabic movement, inspired by the charismatic Egyptian president Nasser. Nasserism as it was called, inspired a new wave of nationalistic and militant organizations among the palestinian arabs. These would be inspired by a brand of socialism, rather than Islam, and the Soviet Union would provide more and more support for these organizations as time passed. Most notable of these were the Palestinian Liberation Organization, the PLO.

In 1967, Isreal won a huge victory in the so-called six-day war. After this, any organization that could prove that it could gain any kind of victory against israel became hugely popular, and would receive massive support from many Arab nations. The PLO had to some degree shown this, and Yasser Arafat and his people, based in Jordan, became immensly popular and powerful.

This became a problem for king Hussein of Jordan, here pictured on the frontpage of Time magazine in 1956. He was friendly to the west, and the palestinians were becoming like a state within a state in Jordan. They would carry uniforms and weapons in public, set up checkpoints, collect taxes, etc. In the end, in 1970, he expelled them by force, and in turn probably killed 4-5000 people. After this, the Palestinians and the PLO fled to Lebanon.

Lebanon - 1970-TodayUp until this point, Lebanon had been fairly untouched by the war with Israel. They participated in the 1948 independence war, but not much, and were kept out of later conflicts. This changed with the arrival of the PLO.

Unlike Jordan, Lebanon did

not have the force to push out the Palestinians, allowing them to operate more or less freely against Israel from the south of the country. The country was also soon engulfed in a bloody civil

war that made it even more impossible for anyone to take action against the

Palestinians. The Syrians once intervened to prevent the PLO from taking complete power, but did not expel them.

Then in 1978, Israel invaded Lebanon for the first time. This was in response to several attacks by the PLO over the border to Israel. The fighting did not last long, however, and already after a few days the UN had a resolution i place, calling for Israel

to withdraw, the Palestinian militants to be removed and the arrival of international peacekeeping force, UNIFIL, which still is there today, 28 years later. Also Lebanese soldiers from the Christian groups in Lebanon were to be deployed in the shouth, creating a buffer zone. The Palestinians were not removed however, and the attacks on Israel continued.

This led to the second Israeli invasion in 1982. This time Israel were determined to remove the PLO once and for all, and kept pushing until they reached Beirut. Here they together with allied factions in Lebanon who quite

MenntoMUN 2006through weapons and money, though both countries deny such accusations. Iran and Syria both maintain they only provice political and “moral” support.

In 2000 Israel finally withdrew completely from Lebanon. An attempt to crush the Lebanese resistance in 1996 had failed, and with no other solution in sight, prime minister Ehud Barak decided to order the withdrawal.

This was seen as a major victory by Hezbollah, and they gained more popularitywithin the arab world, just as the PLO had did in the 1960’s. A UN Security Council resolution in 2004, UNSCR 1559, requested that the Hezbollah all other militias in Lebanon be disarmed and disbanded, but this did not happen. Instead they received additional aid from Syria and Iran, including a wast arsenal of missiles of different types, leading analysts to believe that they currently may be in possession of thousands of rockets of different kinds, the majority of which however remains short ranged.

Since then, Hezbollah has grown stronger and stronger,

fed by popular support as well as funding and weapons pouring in from abroad. In this situation, Israel has been looking for a way and an occasion to deal with them. Yet other issues, in particular the second intifada among the Palestinians since year 2000 have kept Israel busy elsewhere, pushing any attempth to deal with them militarily further up in time.

When the kidnappings of two israeli soldiers in July then connected the struggle against Hamas directly to Hezbollah, however, things changed. This event suddenly linked the two cases, and gave Israel the reason it needed to take on Hezbollah, and to remove a growing threat against its northern border.

frankly didn’t like the PLO any more than Israel did forced the PLO to leave Lebanon.

After this the Israelis gradually withdrew until they only held a strip of land in the south of Lebanon, which they calledthe “Security Zone.”

But in the process of throwing out one enemy, Israel had created another one. In the beginning of the Lebanon invasion, the population in the south, mostly shiites had welcomed the Israelis, as they were fed up with the treatment they were getting from the PLO. Their welcome unfortunately did not last long, and soon an organization intended to fight Israel was founded. It was to be calledHezbollah. The Party of God.

During the next 18 years, Hezbollah led a bloody guerilla war against Israel. They organized bombings in Israeli cities and against Israeli troops in Lebanon, and made sure that maintaining the security zone became as costly as possible for Israel. They received heavy support from both Syria and Iran, both

MenntoMUN 2006Land: 20,700 square km.(Not including Gaza and West Bank)People: 6,352 000GNP per capita:$24,600GNP on Military: 7,7%

Israel

Israel lays in the bottom of the Mediterranean sea, and is a western-style country built largely on the decendants of immigrants that have arrived during the last 150 years.

The country is extremely small. In fact it is less than one fifth of the size of Ice-land. Of this, 60% is desert, where very few people live, which means that the major-ity of the population lives on about 40% of the area, something which compared to Iceland would mean that some 6 million people were living in Höfuðborgarsvæðið. In other words, a lot of people in very little space.

About four fifths of the Is-raeli population is Jewish. Still, as said, the majority of the population has arrived as immigrants over the last 150 years, meaning that Israelis come from all over the world.They come from the US, western Europe, Russia, Asia, Africa and other middle east-ern countries. Also, they come from many different groups of Jews. The majority is secular, and do not go to the syna-goge or pray more than most Icelanders go to church. But many also confer to one of the many more conservative groups, and observe religious rules of eating, prayer and more very strictly.

The economy is a modern

800,000 reserve soldiers that train some months a year and that can be called upon when needed. Israel is also a major producer of defense equip-ment and although they get to buy equipment such as planes cheap from the US, they al-most always modify them to

capitalist economy, with a high emphasis on technology and engineering. Contrary to what many think, Israel is not completely reliant on US money to function. Last year they recieved less than 700 million USD from the US, and their total GDP is at 154 bil-lion USD.

Politically Israel is the only democracy in the Middle-East. People vote for the parliament, called Knesset, every four years, and just like in Iceland, the govern-ment comes from who has the majority. The current Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert comes from the the moderate center party called Kadima, mean-ing “forward” in Hebrew. He originally came from the right wing Likud party. Other large parties in Israel include the Labour party and a coalition of small religious parties.

Militarily Israel is a major power. All Israeli men have to serve 3 years in the military and all women 2 years, though it is common that people are excempted for medical or religious reasons. Still it means that Israel maintains a standing force of more than 100,000 soldiers. In addi-tion they have some 600 to

MenntoMUN 2006their own needs, by installing new computers, sensors and weapons.

Since its founding, Israels military, known as the IDF has defended it successfully in several wars, but also proven itself as a strong offensive force.

In 1956 they joined with France and the UK in an inva-sion of the Suez-canal zone in Egypt. Despite it being only 8 years after the founding of the state of Israel, the Israeli forces fared well and managed to advance far in the few days the war lasted before Ameri-can pressure forced it to stop.

In 1967 Israel attacked its neighbors Egypt, Syria and Jordan when its intelligence agency told it that these coun-tries intended to attack them. Egyptian bombers standing un-prepared on the ground were surprised before they could get in the air, and their air-force was crippled during the first day of the war. After six days the war ended, and Israel had won one of the greatest victories in military history.

In 1973 Israel again had in-telligence that its neighbors intended to attack them, but did not strike first this time. They were afraid that if they did that they would not get any international support. Instead they waited, and the Arab countries attacked. Syria and Egypt had both gotten enourmous amounts of new equipment from the Soviet

Union since the war in 1967, and Israel was only able to stop them by getting support from the United States. In the end however, Israel struck back, and again completely crushed the Arab armies.

Since then Israel has not been invaded. Instead the Arab na-tions have focused on operat-ing and funding guerilla groups that could lead a constant war of attrition against Is-rael, trying to break it down from within. Suicide bombers, rocket attacks, hijackings and assassinations became the tactics of choice, and except from the invasions in Lebanon, Israel has not been involved in major combat since the 1973 war.

This has not meant that the Israeli military has been rest-ing ever since. It has con-ducted almost continuous operations against militants within the occupied areas and kept a strong watch against any indications of new attacks from any of its neighbors. After the peace agreement with Egypt in 1981 and with Jordan in 1994, the threat of new invasions has been greatly reduced.

After the last war against Hezbollah, however, there has been a lot of critizism on how well prepared Israel were to fight the war. With the threat of invasion reduced Israel has reduced its military budgets somewhat, and the reserves have been given less training. This is both because they have

not had the money to do the training, but also because the reservists themselves have de-manded more free time, and less spent training for a war that seems to not be coming.

MenntoMUN 2006Syria

The name of Syria and its capital Damascus are as old and ancient as Israel and Jerusalem, but just as with Israel, there is little resemblance between the historical Syria and today’s “Arab Republic.”

Syria is situated between Lebanon in the west, Turkey in the north, Jordan in the south and Iraq in the east. This position makes it part of almost every possible conflict in the Middle East, and they have proven to be a controversial participant in many of them.

In relation to Israel, Syria has been involved in all the major wars against it since it was founded. Israel still occupies parts of the Golan Heights, originally captured in 1967, and negotiations towards any return of these have been slow.

In relations to Lebanon, Syria has been involved since the 1970’s when they intervened to avoid the Palestinians from taking over completely. Up until 2005, Syria still maintained bases with thousands of troops in the Bekaa valley on the border of Lebanon and Syria remains a strong supporter of Hezbollah.

In relations to Turkey, the Kurdish issue has been a problem. There are a number

of Kurds in the country’s north-eastern regions, and Turkey has for a long time been running aggressive campaigns against the Kurdish guerillas in the region, and hence gotten into issues with their neighbors, including Syria.

In relation to Iraq, Syria initially had close ties to Saddam Hussein but they deteriorated over time as Iraq bacame more agressive. In the end Syria actually supported the 1991 US led invasion to free Kuwait. Today however the US accuses Syria of supporting Iraqi insurgents and allowing them to hide in Syria. Syria refuses to have

anything to do with them, and has made attempts to strike down on people wanted for international terrorism hiding in Syria.

Politics in Syria is much based on families, religious groups and personal alliances. Modern Syria got its independence from France in 1946, and the first 25 years of its independence was marred with repeated coups, counter coups, military rulers as well as extreme socialistic radicals. Not until 1971 did they achieve some sort of stability when the father of the current president, Hafez al-Assad took power by rebelling against the people he had himself

Land: 185,180 square kmPeople: 18,881,361GNP per capita:$3,900GNP on Military: 5,9%

MenntoMUN 2006rebelled together with less than ten years earlier. The ruling party was and is known as the Ba’ath party, and as mentioned it used to have strong ties to Saddam Hussein and his Ba’ath party in Iraq.

What is essential to understand is the difficult position of the ruling elite in Syria. The French when they ruled Syria saw it as necessary to ally themselves with many smaller minorities and use them to rule the rest, just like the British used the Jews in Palestine to keep down the Arabs. In Syria one of these groups were the Alawites. The Alawite are a small Shiite muslim community that grew forth during the 10th century, and that stayed in power for a short period. They then came under heavy persecution for hundreds of years during which hundreds of thousands of Alawites are said to have been killed. When then the French took over in 1918, they gave the Alawites autonomy in their own little region and allowed them to serve in the colonial military, giving them military training and influence.

When then the French granted Syria independence in 1946, the Alawites, despite their small numbers were in a prime position to assume power. At first they ruled as part of the many military governments

that came and went during until Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite took complete power in 1970-71.

The problem for the Alawites however, is that most Muslims

do not recognize them as true Muslims. They are, as mentioned, a Shiite community, by some called a sect, and have ties to the Shiite regime in Iran, but have a not so good relationship to more than 75% of their own population who are Sunnis.

For many years though, it was still possible for the Alawite-dominated government to stay

in power by sheer force alone. Their rule was and is a military regime, and much of the country’s resources go towards the military and

the security and intelligence services. The official estimate of 5,9% of GDP going to the military is believed to be seriously underestimated. During the Cold War, Syria was one of the prime recipients of Soviet military aid in the Middle East, which they could then use to suppress any opposition, and build a sizeable offensive force to use against Israel.

However, following the end of the Cold War, support from

the Soviet Union stopped, and today the Syrian Army is equipped mostly with old and decaying Soviet material from the 1980’s. The last major battle between Syran forces and Israel that happened during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 ended in complete defeat and humiliation for the Syrian forces, and the situation has not gotten any better since. They received some influx of money to use on their military during the first Gulf War when they supported the invasion of Iraq, but that is now 15 years ago and little has happened since then. Although they maintain a large military in terms of manpower, their capacity remains limited.

This has meant that the Syrian government has become more set on accommodating rather than suppressing their critics. Rather than confronting them they now try to prove themselves to the Muslim world as “worthy Muslims.” This includes maintaining a though stance on Israel, and many also believe that the Syrian government were directly involved in the burning of Nordic embassies in Damascus and Beirut in February 2006 in response to the Mohammed drawings.

MenntoMUN 2006Syria can be expected to continue to take strong stands on symbolic issues for these reasons.

Syria is also being accused of continuing to support terrorism, and several Palestinian organizations that are considered as terrorists by the west, such as Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine have offices in the capital Damascus. It is also widely held that they allow Iran to supply Hezbollah with weapons using the airports around Damascus as a transit point.

At the same time Syria has taken action against individuals with connections to Al-Qaida and at least tried, though unsuccessfully to strengthen the control of their border with Iraq. This makes analysts believe that Syria draws a line between what they consider a legitimate resistance in Lebanon and the Palestinian areas and international terrorism by organizations such as Al-Qaida. They see support for the first kind of organizations as legitimate, but not for the others.

As mentioned, Syria is still a military regime. The leaders of the security services remain among the closest advisors to the president, and their different agencies are still involved in almost every aspect of Syrian society. It has become somewhat less of a

police state since the son of the first Alawite president, Bashar al-Assad took over as president in 2000, but those who hoped for a radical reform of the society have been disappointed.

Syrian economy is still very much controlled by the government, although there have been some modest reforms in the last few years, with more independent businesses and banks opening. It is however still very reliant on oil exports, and the growing population put a large strain on the country’s agriculture and water supply. Indeed, to Syria, the question of access to fresh water is just as important as the access to oil.

MenntoMUN 2006Lebanon

Lebanon as a country is even smaller than Israel. It has sadly not made it any more peaceful, rather the opposite.

The country houses some of the oldest human settlements known to man, and has been a centre of commerce and travel for thousands of years. Because of this, the population is a unique mix of different ethnic groups and religions that unfortunately has caused many conflicts. Due to the country’s small size, it does not take a lot to upset the delicate balance of power that exists between the different groups, meaning that even small events can have massive consequences.

The country is roughly divided into four regions. There is a narrow and fertile coastal strip that runs between the coast and the second region, the Lebanon Mountains. Then on the other side of the Lebanon mountains inside the country is the infamous Bekaa valley, where numerous groups accused of having terrorist connections have been hiding over the years. Then the fourth region is the mountains on the other side of the valley on the borders to Syria. The two mountain ranges meet in the south along the border to Israel, making that area very hilly and full of excellent hiding places for guerilla groups.

In 1918 the French were given present day Lebanon and Syria as a mandated territory by the League of Nations. It remained under French control until a deal was struck between Charles de Gaulle who led the Free French forces under the Second World War and local leaders for the independence of Lebanon. In return Lebanon promised to support the allied forces during the war, and not to stay loyal to the “Vichy” forces, who were the French that allied with Nazi Germany. French forces did not leave however until 1946 when also Syria was given independence.

After 1946 the country remained peaceful for some time. Culture and commerce flourished, and the capital

Beirut was known as the “Paris” of the Middle East, and the country was seen as another “Switzerland.”

But this all would change. The constant conflicts between Israel and the Palestinians meant that an always increasing stream of refugees was pouring into the country, especially in the south. After Jordan threw out the PLO and Yasser Arafat in the beginning of the 1970’s, the power balance in southern Lebanon was completely tilted, and it sparked what was to become a long and bloody civil war.

The civil war would see one Syrian invasion, two Israeli invasions, widespread use of what today is regarded as

Land: 10,400 square kmPeople: 3,874,050GNP per capita:$6,200GNP on Military: 3,1%

MenntoMUN 2006terrorist attacks (suicide car bombs etc.), and hundreds of thousands of Lebanese fleeing their country and becoming refugees in Europe and North America. The different factions, the PLO and the Sunnis, the Druze, the Maronites and the Shiites would all change their allegiances several times during the conflict, with almost everyone fighting everyone at some point, prolonging both the fighting and the suffering. From 1981 to 1984 there was an attempt of international intervention, but it ended after two car bombs in one day killed more than 500 people, the majority of which were American and French soldiers.

In 1989 the first real step towards peace was made with the signing of the “Taif-agreement.” It was negotiated by other Arab countries, with particular influence from Syria and Saudi Arabia. It stated that all the different militias should be disarmed, that the Lebanese central government should be reestablished and strengthened, and that the most important national goal was to “abolish sectarianism.” There should be equal division of power, equal number of Christian and Muslim representatives within parliament and no more mentioning of peoples origin on their identity cards. The peace was to be secured by the presence of an Arab Protection Force to act as peacekeepers. The Taif

agreement remains the basis of government in Lebanon today.

In reality, what happened was quite different. The agreement was never fully implemented and in many ways the Taif agreement was like putting a tight lid on a boiling pot, and place 15000 foreign soldiers on top to keep the lid on. Sooner or later, it will explode.

SInce it was never fully implemented it did not solve any of the underlying problems, just found a way top keep them at bay for some time. People’s origin still counts heavily in almost everything. The president is expected to come from one community, the prime minister from another and the defense minister from another again. Although the deal said that all militias should be disarmed, Hezbollah did not disarm, and rather became stronger than weaker. And despite the fact that the national Army was to become a strong and neutral force, it is still heavily divided along sectarian lines, making it very doubtful that it will ever be able to take decisive action against Hezbollah, since many within the Army are Shiites, and are presumed to sympathize with them. It is also considered weak, and suffers heavily from poor

training and equipment.

Finally, the so-called “Arab Protection Force,” which were to function as Arab peacekeepers in reality were a 15 000 strong Syrian occupation force funded by Saudi Arabia, designed to keep the Israeli’s out of Lebanon and in particular the Bekaa valley. Syria also has strong influence on Lebanese internal affairs.

This now has worked to some degree for about 15 years. Despite the occasional outbreak of violence and some sporadic bombing attacks, peace returned to Lebanon. But things were about to change, things that might just make the lid pop off.

February 14th, 2005, Rafiq Hariri, former Prime Minister of Lebanon was assassinated in a car bomb attack in Beirut. Hariri had been prime minister for most of the time since

peace was restored, he was one of the worlds wealthiest men and hugely popular. His assassination sparked both national and international uproar, and much of the blame for the attack was put with Syria. A report from the UN more than indicated that Syrian officials were involved in the attacks, although the Syrian government flatly denies knowing anything of the attack beforehand.

MenntoMUN 2006The result anyhow became that Syrian forces, the so-called “Arab Protection Force” was forced to leave, in an apparent move from the US and the UN to reduce Syrian influence in Lebanon. It is believed however, that Syrian intelligence services still operate within Lebanon, and that it has increased its support of Hezbollah now that its own forces have left. The result is that Lebanon now seems heavily divided along the lines of being for or against Syria, at the same time as inter-sectarian strife seems to again be on the rise.

This division has further strengthened Hezbollah, and they are now seen by many as being just as strong as, or even stronger than the central Lebanese government.

In the aftermath of the recent attacks by Israel, it is believed that almost all the reconstruction that had been done since the end of the civil war 15 years ago has been laid waste and ruined. The country is again almost without infrastructure, the economy is in shambles, pollution is devastating and the political situation is chaotic. The challenge is to return stability and once again rebuild the country, but to do so in a way that might deal with some of the underlying problems within the Lebanese society, and avoid having to rebuild Lebanon yet another time in the future. Quick fixes can only be allowed if they have a long time perspective.

Groups and organizations in the Middle East.

One important aspect of the Middle Eastern conflict is the number of large and powerful non-state organizations that exist in the region, as well as the importance of ethnic and religious groups and communities. This gives a short description of some of the most important groups and divisions mentioned in this guide, but it is not a complete guide in any respect.

Islam and its subdivisions.

When referring to Islam, it is important to understand that it is not a unitary religion or group of people as many would like to think. Just saying “the Muslims” gives a very wrong picture of the situation, when indeed there are many subdivisions of Islam who differ strongly on many issues, and who often fight each other just as strongly as they would fight outsiders.

One of the most basic divisions within the Muslim world runs between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. The division between them dates back to the dispute over who should lead the Muslims when Mohammad himself died. Most adopted a practical approach, those who were the leaders at the time and provided good conditions for the exercise of Islam and general stability and order in society could lead the Muslims. These became the

MenntoMUN 2006Sunni, meaning roughly “the united ones,” or something to that effect.

There was another group however, who supported the candidate they considered to be appointed by divine inspiration. Mohammad’s son-in-law Ali, was thought to have been appointed or at least indicated by the Great Prophet himself as the preferred successor, and he and his followers rebelled to secure him the power. It was unsuccessful, however, and Ali was killed. Still his followers, known as “Ali’s party” or “Shi’at Ali” in Arabic, hence today’s word “Shia” continued on, and became somewhat on an “opposition movement” within Islam, where they supported several Imams or leaders that they saw as more legitimate than the majority. Over time they developed their own distinct religious practices, and became a separate religious wing more than a political party. Shiite Islam again is divided into several different sects, one of the largest being the direction of the twelfth Imam, which is dominant in Iran.

The majority of Muslims today are Sunni Muslims with Shiites only numbering according to most estimates around 10-15% of the total population of Muslims. The majority of the Shiites however are concentrated in the Middle East, while the Sunnis are spread all over the world, and they perform the majority in

several important countries such as Iran and Iraq, which gives them more influence than one would think according to their size.

Shiite Islam is believed to be somewhat more extreme than most parts of Sunni Islam, as they do not recognize secular governments.

The differences between the two are really not that large. You could never tell it by looking at a person on the street if he was Sunni or Shiite, and most of them speak Arabic or whatever language is common where they live. Mostly it could be compared to the division between Protestants and Catholics in Northern Ireland, where it is not so much the people or the religion that separates rather the history and identity of the two groups. In Iraq for instance, there is violent conflict between the two, because Saddam Hussein and his regime were Sunnis and were oppressing the Shiites for many years, while in Palestine Shiite Hezbollah is declaring support for Sunni Hamas because they there have a common enemy in Israel. The level of hostility between the two groups is therefore a lot determined by local conditions and history.

The PLO

The PLO, the Palestinian Liberation Organization is one of the most well known Palestinian organizations worldwide. It was founded by the Arab League during their meeting in Cairo in 1964 as an umbrella organization for different groups seeking the liberation of the Palestinian people. It was to be secular, and had strong ties to Egyptian president Nasser and his ideology of pan-Arabism and with the Soviet Union.

Two years after the 1967 Six-Day war, Yasser Arafat, who then was the leader of one of the largest member organizations of the PLO, Fatah, was made chairman. With him the main goal of the PLO increasingly became armed attacks on Israel and Jews wherever they could be found. Several spectacular raids on Jews all over the world during the 1970’s gave the PLO a reputation as one of the worst terror organizations of the day.

After the events known as Black September in Jordan in 1971-72, Yasser Arafat moved his activities to Lebanon,

MenntoMUN 2006where they took up much the same position that Hezbollah has today. They launched several raids on Israel and continued their international campaigns.

The presence of the PLO however, is believed to have caused all three foreign invasions during the Lebanese civil war. The Syrians intervened to stop the PLO from getting complete power in the mid 1970’s, which they feared would cause an Israeli invasion. Unfortunately for them, it did not work, and Israel indeed invaded twice hunting the PLO, both in 1978 and 1982. In 1982 the PLO was forced to evacuate the country, and moved their operations to Tunisia.

In 1993 they signed the Oslo agreement with Israel, and were allowed to return to the Palestinian areas as liberators. Millions on millions of dollars of aid money was streaming in from all over the world, and the PLO went from being a terror organization into becoming a respected partner in world politics.

Unfortunately, old habits die hard. After the enormous progress that was made during the first years of the

1990’s, the process stalled, for many reasons. One of them were that the PLO, emboldened by the gains they had made became unwilling to compromise, and saw the increasing popularity of religiously based organizations such as Hamas who continued the fight as a threat. Because of this, even though the Israeli’s in 2000 offered more than the Palestinians have ever been offered before in any peace agreement, Yasser Arafat refused to make a deal.

This lack of progress together with claims of widespread corruption by the PLO and particularly Fatah officials led to a rapid decline in popularity of the PLO and the bginning of the second intifada. After the death of Yasser Arafat in 2005, the PLO began to dissolve, and lost even more of its power. When elections came, Hamas won an immense victory, and the PLO, after much internal fighting accepted defeat, and became an opposition party.

Hamas

Hamas is an Arabic abbreviation, just like NATO is an abbreviation in English. The word itself means “Zeal” and is an abbreviation for the “Islamic Resistance Movement.”

Hamas was founded in 1987 at the beginning of the first Palestinian Intifada by a member of the Muslim Brothers, an old Islamist organization based in Egypt. Its goals are the eradication of the Jewish state and the establishment of an Islamic state in Palestine. In many ways it is like a Sunni version of Hezbollah, though there are some differences.

To obtain its goals it has organized an intense campaign of attacks on Israel particularly using suicide bombers and rocket attacks. It also has a regular militia, although it is not believed to be anywhere near the force of the Hezbollah.

What is important about Hamas however is that just like for the Hezbollah, armed resistance is only a small part of their activities. Hamas runs an extensive network of schools and public services in

MenntoMUN 2006the West Bank and in Gaza, and have gained a lot of public support through this. This network has been made possible through substantial support from abroad. Much of this is believed to come from Iran, including both money

and weapons. In January 2006, taking advantage of the decay and decline of the PLO they won the elections for the Palestinian Authority. After this there has been a lot of speculation on what would become of Hamas, if they would follow the PLO and recognize Israel and make peace now that they had the power to do so, or if they would continue to fight. However, until they lay down their arms, Israel, as well as the US and many other western countries refuse to have any contact with Hamas, and will not provide them with any kind of funding.

The kidnapping of an Israeli soldier June 25th 2006 led to an intense campaign against Gaza and Hamas, and included the destruction of several offices used by Hamas as well as the arrest of many of its leaders and members.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah, meaning the “party of God” in Arabic, is what one would refer to as a “child of the Iranian Revolution.” It is a Lebanese Shiite movement that was founded with substantial support from Iran in the early 1980’s during the early years of Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. It refers clearly to Iran itself in its own charter as its main source of inspiration.

It also refers explicitly to the need for the complete destruction of Israel. It has declared that the Jews that were in Palestine before Israel came to be in 1948 can stay, the rest can “go back to Germany,” or wherever they came from. Hezbollah has been known to use very degrading language when referring to Israel or Jews in general.

As an organization, they are very tightly organized with a military arm just like Hamas, and substantial social services for the local population. There are stories of Hezbollah representatives coming to people’s homes and simply handing over thousands of dollars to people requiring

medical treatment so that they can go to a hospital and get what they need.

After Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah declared they had won a major victory, a claim they used to make themselves even more powerful. Their numbers grew and they today even have a seat in the Lebanese parliament. The Lebanese government considers Hezbollah a legitimate resistance movement. Security Council resolution 1559 from 2004 demands that all remaining militias in Lebanon should be disarmed, but Hezbollah has refused this demand, making them the only remaining fully operative militia/guerilla organization within Lebanon.Its military arm, called

the “Islamic Resistance Movement” just like the Hamas, is believed to be one of the strongest guerilla armies in the world. Its main strength is the substantial amount of support it is getting from abroad, both from private sponsors but also from many countries. The largest state supporter is of course Iran, which have supplied them with great amounts of money, training

MenntoMUN 2006and sophisticated weaponry. Its main weakness however is the limited amount of territory they control. Most guerilla movements rely on the opportunity to retreat to mountains, forests or other sorts of hidden terrain to avoid pitched battles against a superior enemy, but Hezbollah does not have this luxury. This forces them to fight even more fiercly for the territory they do have which is rather unusual for a guerilla movement, and leads to them using extreme versions of guerilla tactics combined with the advanced weaponry they are being supplied by Iran.

Training is believed to happen to a large degree through a network of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (an elite corps of the Iranian military) operating both within Lebanon and Iran. Some sources indicate that many Hezbollah fighters are indeed brought all the way to Iran to train, where they are being taught Israeli tactics and learned how they fight. Many believe this explains some of their skills when confronting the Israeli soldiers.

It is impossible to know the exact size of Hezbollah’s armed forces, although most estimates range in “the thousands.” Some even say they may have as many as 10-15 000 reservists that can be called up if needed.

Druze

The Druze have always been a small group in the Middle East, but they have been there for almost a thousand years, and they have often been in a swing position between the different parties in the region.

It is hard to estimate just how many they are and estimates range from 450 000 to 2 million with most of them living in Lebanon.

Their religion is a version of Islam, but few recognize them as Muslims. They are considered a sect, and they refer to themselves as “monotheists.” Their religious practices are very secretive, and only the highest circles of leaders have access to all the rituals. They also have their own schools as well as religious courts.

During the Lebanese civil war, the Druze militia proved itself very combat efficient, and quickly fought back their main opponent, the Maronite Phalangist militia. These two later became allies in one of the many changes of alliances

that happened during the war.

In Israel the Druze have participated within the community on equal footing with Jews ever since the founding of Israel. They perform military service with the Israel Defense Force just as the Jews. There are even rumors following the recent war in Lebanon that the Druze battalion within the Israeli army performed so well, killing 20 Hezbollah while suffering no casualtiesof their own, that they are to promoted to a special forces battalion. This remains a rumor however, and is included here just to illustrate the reputation the Druze have as fighters.

MenntoMUN 2006Maronites

The Maronites are a Roman Catholic church in Lebanon, influenced by the eastern churches and with a strong and special relationship to the catholic church in Europe. Up through history, this special relationship has secured them plentiful western support, especially from France, and guarantees them a disproportionate amount of power and influence both within the country and within the international community.

The Maronites have their origin all the way back in the 5th century, and have managed to remain a distinct community through all this time. During the Ottoman rule, France appointed itself as the protector of all Christians within the Ottoman Empire, including the Maronites, and have since intervened several times both militarily and diplomatically on their behalf.

During the time that the French had Lebanon as a mandate, from 1918 to 1946, the Maronites briefly were allowed their own autonomous region within Lebanon.

In the Lebanese civil war, the Maronites had one of the most feared militias, the Phalangists. Their militia has since been demobilized.

It is believed that there are some 15 million Maronites worldwide, though less than one million live in Lebanon, performing some 25% of the population. (Remember that under the Taif agreement, they still hold 50% of the seats in parliament.)

The Current Conflict

The following is a short account of the events of July and August 2006.

At July 12th, Hezbollah fighters capture two Israeli soldiers and kill eight on the Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah declares that they are doing this in solidarity with Hamas, and announce that they demand a prisoner swap with Israel. Israel denies the request, and demands that Hezbollah releases the soldiers.

July 13th, Israel attacks Lebanon and bombs Beirut airport. Hezbollah starts firing missiles into northern Israel, killing two Israelis. Israel begins a complete blockade of Lebanon by air, land and sea.

July 14th Israel sets the conditions for what it will require to end the attacks. It requires the return of its soldiers, end of rocket attacks and the disarmament of Hezbollah as stipulated in UN Security Council resolution 1559. Rocket attacks and Israeli counter-fire across the border continues.

July 15th Hezbollah fires on

MenntoMUN 2006an Israeli warship outside Beirut, hitting it and killing four Israeli soldiers. The attack was conducted using the Lebanese coastal radar network for targeting, and which Israel immediately destroys following the attack. Rocket attacks and Israeli counter-fire across the border continues.

July 16th Hezbollah for the first time fires on Haifa, killing 8. Israel increases its attacks on southern Lebanon.

July 17th sees further bloody attacks on both sides of the border.

July 18th sees more bloodshed. Initial ground assaults on the ground into Lebanon prove difficult for the Israeli army, and the Israeli government announces it does not intend to invade.

July 19th becomes one of the bloodiest days, as Israeli strikes kill 70.

July 21st to the 25th sees the beginning of an Israeli buildup on the ground, preparing for what seems like a full scale invasion on the ground. On the 25th four UN observers are killed in an air raid.

July 26th sees the end of the Rome conference that attempted to achieve a cease fire, however with little or no results.

July 27th Israel continues to mobilize more troops as attacks continue. Israeli ground forces advance further into Lebanon.

July 29th Israel attacks an oil refinery, causing massive pollution along the coast of Lebanon.

July 30th sees attacks on Qana, killing 28, including 16 children.

August 1st The Israeli cabinet authorizes a full scale invasion of southern Lebanon, intended to reach the Litani river.

August 2nd sees commando raids deep into Lebanese territory. By now the Lebanese government assesses that the damage on the country amounts to some 2,5 billion USD.

August 3rd Hezbollah threatens to rocket Tel Aviv, Israel’s largest city if the attacks on Lebanon are not stopped.

August 4th sees Israel attacking the border between Lebanon and Syria and

Hezbollah missiles reaching further into Israel than ever before.

August 6th 12 Israeli soldiers are killed as a rocket hits their staging area close to the border.

August 7th sees more bloody attacks on Lebanon, and the Lebanese government now claims more than 1000 have been killed in Lebanon.

August 9th Israel evacuates the northern town of Kiryat Shmona, making it the first Israeli town to ever be evacuated since Israel was founded in 1948.

August 11th sees opinion polls showing dropping confidence among Israelis in how the war is being conducted.August 12th sees the Security Council adopting resolution 1701, requesting a cease fire and an end to the month old hostilities. The same day 24 Israeli soldiers die in fighting as Israel desperately tries to gain as much ground as possible before the war ends.

August 13th sees the Israeli cabinet accepting resolution 1701.

August 14th the hostilities end.

MenntoMUN 2006Op/Ed, analysis and conclusions.

Let me stress that this part is based on my own analysis of the conflict and the current situation, and does not represent MenntoMUN’s official opinion.

This month long war has been a demonstration in bad analysis, bad preparations and a reconfirmation of the old saying “assumptions are the mother of all fuck-ups.” From the beginning both sides made terminal errors in intelligence, analysis and tactics, though Israel may be said to have made the most of them.

The war began when Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others in a cross border attack into Israel. Hezbollah attacking Israel is nothing new but the new thing was the direct linking between actions taken by Hezbollah and Hamas. This created a situation where Israel felt it was facing synchronized attacks on two fronts, and which made it feel entirely justified responding with overwhelming force.

Hezbollah’s assumption was apparently that Israel would never dare to launch a full attack on Lebanon in response, and that this would force through the prisoner swap Hamas previously had been calling for. They could not have been more wrong.

However, luckily for Hezbollah, Israel made several bad assumptions themselves in the following days that weighed up for their initial mistake. Israel seems to have believed that they could treat Lebanon as they had been treating Gaza; Seal it off and hammer it until you hit what you want. In addition, they misread the strength of Hezbollah and in particular the size of its arsenal of rockets, and did not have any adequate way to stop them.

Soon it began to dawn upon Israel that the limited raids with their troops on the ground they were used to running into Gaza and the West Bank would not work in Lebanon. They proved very costly as the fighters they were meeting were not the armed gangs of Hamas, but rather a highly trained, well equipped and well motivated guerilla force that had specialized in how to fight Israeli soldiers. It was only the Israeli soldiers own high level of training that prevented the attacks from becoming total disasters despite the high casualties.

This led to a period of indecision within the Israeli government, and from the 15th to the 25th of July there was little done to improve the tactics of the army. Somewhat surprised by the level of resistance met on the ground and unwilling to commit to a full level invasion with the possible casualties that might

bring, they waited to see what came out of the diplomatic effort, and the Rome conference. In the meantime, air attacks continued. When the diplomatic effort lead to nothing, they reluctantly ordered the mobilization of more reserve troops and started preparing for an invasion.

But by then it was too late. The waiting and the indecision had cost Israel two weeks of combat and the reliance on air power had caused hundreds of civilian lives expending all of the sympathy Israel might have had for their cause.

Air power has always been Israel’s strong card. In previous wars it has been instrumental in gaining the upper hand on the battlefield and striking deep into the heart of the enemy’s territory. But while air attacks are effective against tanks and fixed installations such as power plants and bridges, it is very difficult to use against an enemy that knows how to avoid air strikes and that do not use nor need neither tanks, power plants or bridges. Hezbollah is such an enemy, and this means that Israel has to strike at secondary targets that might possibly serve the Hezbollah, but also definitely serves civilians. This inevitably leads to higher civilian casualties.

Although Israel undoubtedly caused significant casualties upon the Hezbollah and their

MenntoMUN 2006fighters and missiles and not just upon the civilians, this was not shown on the TV screens around the world, and since Hezbollah had plenty of both fighters and missiles, the attacks on northern Israel did not stop, giving the impression that Israel’s attacks were ineffective.

Also air assaults were not successful in stopping more weapons and missiles coming in from Iran through Syria, hence it was possible for Hezbollah to replace most if not all of the missiles they fired on Israel and the ones Israel were able to destroy.

Finally, reports are that the Hezbollah were using civilian buildings and areas to both store weapons and to fire them, meaning that whenever Israel attacked these areas going for the Hezbollah fighters, they would kill civilians. This also is causing grave problems now that people are returning to their homes, as there are massive amounts of unexploded bombs and grenades in the area. The UN estimates that hundreds if not thousands of civilians have been killed or wounded by unexploded ordnance, as it is called since the end of the war.

The fact that Israel obviously have been using so-called cluster and cargo munitions in southern Lebanon makes the situation even worse. These munitions spread hundreds of small bombs over a wide

area, and unfortunately many of them do not explode at once, leaving them like small land mines in the area they were dropped. These kinds of bombs are highly controversial and their use against civilians and civilian areas is forbidden according to international law.

When Israel finally decided to go for the ground invasion, it became clear that the Israeli army was no longer the unstoppable war machine they used to be. Though still massively superior in terms of firepower and soldiers, cutbacks in budgets, lack of training and little development within doctrine and tactics have reduced their effectiveness significantly. Despite the fact that Israel still won the majority of the battles on the ground, it took them much longer and cost them much more in terms of casualties than ever before. While Israel in the Six-Day War in 1967 war smashed the militaries of three other countries in less than a week, they this time were not able to conquer the area north to the Litani river, some 30 km into Lebanon despite almost a month of heavy air attacks, and two weeks of ground assaults.

It must be understood however, that much of this was also due to the lack of political will and clear goals for the offensive. The Israeli’s were in many ways attacking without really knowing what they wanted to achieve,

while Hezbollah were very determined and were fighting for their very existence. This lack of clear objectives and unclear instructions led to a drop in morale among the Israeli forces, as well as a drop in support for the government and the military leadership from the Israeli people.

When then the cease-fire was implemented, it was also deeply flawed. It demanded a cease fire, a larger UN force and the implementation of resolution 1559 (i.e. the disarmament of Hezbollah,) but failed to say exactly what should happen after the cease fire, what this UN force should do except supporting the Lebanese army and who should disarm Hezbollah.

Israel of course is afraid that this UN force will be just as unsuccessful as the previous one. Since 1978 the UNIFIL has been deployed in southern Lebanon, but they have never been efficient in stopping attacks on Israel nor disarm any of the organizations there be it the PLO or the Hezbollah. Remember that after 1978 the PLO stayed in the area after the UN force was in place and the PLO continued its attacks on Israel, and Israel then attacked again four years later.

The challenge now then is to allow all the parties to emerge from the conflict without losing face. Hezbollah can to some degree allow themselves

MenntoMUN 2006to be noble, and give in a little to Israel, building even more support for their cause. Israel on the other hand needs tangible assurances that Hezbollah will not just rebuild under the protection of the UN and that they will not launch another attack on their territory whenever they want. If Israel does not feel safe, it is likely to launch another attack on Lebanon, UN force or not.

Ehud Olmert and his government are likely however at least initially to pursue some kind of negotiated solution. The faith in the possibility to resolve the conflict by military means seems to have been diminished, and Olmert, fearing the effects on his political support from another expensive battle with Hezbollah might be tempted to find another solution.

As to who won, it is fair to say Hezbollah won the first round, but the war is not over yet. The weapons are still there, Israel still has forces in southern Lebanon, and the current situation is one of a tense cease fire, not a peace agreement. Hostilities are likely to begin again at any time, and they could become even bloodier than last time. Israel is not likely to make the same mistake twice. Now they know what they are up against, they will train and organize accordingly, although it will take some time. Hezbollah knows this,

and will respond even harder and more desperately to any attacks, and might even strike Tel Aviv. For the UN and the nations providing forces to the area, this is a dangerous scenario where they might be caught in the middle of the fighting, not knowing who to direct their fire at to make it stop. If they fire at Hezbollah, they might be facing revenge from them later, as well as world-wide criticism of being supportive of Israel. Several countries might even withdraw their forces if this was to happen. But if they direct their fire at Israel, they would loose the support of the US, Israel would demand their removal as well as potentially threatening to attack the UN forces. Given this scenario it is understandable that Germany would not want to get involved. The prospect of German soldiers killing Jews is a very bad one, giving many uncomfortable flashbacks.

In this situation, you, the members of the MenntoMUN Security Council are given the task of finding a resolution. The current crisis you will be given will complicate matters even more, and will put great demands on your abilities to negotiate and think creatively. Just remember, in the Middle East, it is all in the details, everything connects to everything, and quick fixes can be dangerous if they do not have a long term perspective.

Good Luck!