Futures 44 (2012) 91–104

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Megapatterns of global settlement: Typology and drivers in awarming world

Trausti Valsson *, Gudmundur F. Ulfarsson 1

University of Iceland, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hjardarhagi 6, IS-107 Reykjavik, Iceland

A R T I C L E I N F O

Article history:

Available online 9 September 2011

A B S T R A C T

Changes in settlement structures of the world can be described as megapatterns that

represent dynamic spatial trends. This paper defines and describes three types of such

megapatterns that will be of major influence in shaping global settlement and activity

structures in the future, given a warming climate: (1) megapatterns driven by global

warming; (2) megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3)

megapatterns driven by important spatial positions. The megapatterns are ordered into a

typology and their individual and collective impacts are described.

The major findings of this paper are: because of global warming many of the central

areas of the globe will experience heat, water and pollution problems that will induce

people and activities to be moved to cooler, wetter areas. As high, cool terrains, as well as

the virgin Sub-Polar Regions—mostly located in Siberia, Northern Canada, Northern

Scandinavia, Greenland, Alaska, Southern Argentina, and Southern Chile—start to get

warmer, it will become possible to relocate water-craving industries, like agriculture and

resource extraction. This will not necessarily lead to a large population shift, since

relatively few workers are needed for most such operations.

� 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction

Without a historical overview of climate patterns and shifts, the world seems to be static because global changes happenslowly. With global warming, however, the changes have become fast enough that we cannot help but realize that the worldis, indeed, dynamic and changing. Therefore we can be certain—if the warming continues—that the settlement and activitystructures of the world will change considerably in this century [1,2].

In the course of the history of the Earth, climate changes have been a major force in driving human migration, and thuschanging settlement patterns [3]. In more recent times, technological advances and changes in global population andactivities have also been underlying forces in driving changes in global and regional settlement patterns.

The main pattern of change that has emerged in earlier periods of global warming has been the spread of climate, bio-, andsettlement zones towards the Polar areas. This spread has now, once more, started to occur because of the extensive warmingtrend of our times. The main global warming megapattern—Towards the Poles—has been widely covered in the literature interms of bio-zones [1].

The less known spatial migration trends in response to a warming climate will be in the future: To coasts in warm regions;To currently cold but warming central areas in colder regions; and To high plateaus in very warm regions. The literature on

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +354 525 4664; fax: +354 525 4632.

E-mail addresses: tv@hi.is (T. Valsson), gfu@hi.is (G.F. Ulfarsson).1 Tel.: +354 525 4907; fax: +354 525 4632.

0016-3287/$ – see front matter � 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.09.001

T. Valsson, G.F. Ulfarsson / Futures 44 (2012) 91–10492

these trends deals mostly with the migration of species in the natural world to cooler areas in times of warming, as their habitatsbecome too warm for survival [4]. Articles on human migration that follows similar patterns have started to appear (e.g. [5]).

Literature that analyses what are—or have been—the main drivers of modern human migration has a long history. Twowell-known writers on this subject are Ravenstein and Lee. Ravenstein compiled the ‘‘Laws of Migration’’ between 1834 and1913, largely dealing with the realm of socially related phenomena. An example of his laws is: ‘‘Families are less likely tomake international moves than young adults’’. [6]

Lee’s laws, on the other hand, divide migrations into push and pull factors. Push factors are factors that are considered tobe bad about a country or an area and that therefore encourage outmigration, whereas pull factors attract people to an area[7]. Some recent publications examine push and pull factors from a wide perspective, including changes within the realms ofglobal demography and globalization [8]. The recent discipline of climate history deepens this examination by suggestingthat some migration movements throughout history had their origins in climatic occurrences [9].

This paper does not focus on the social drivers in migration which are most commonly studied. The focus is rather ontypes of dynamic spatial trends over the globe. They follow certain patterns, and collectively—together with many otherfactors—influence how global and regional settlement patterns are shaped and changed. By identifying such dynamic trendsin the world of today—which includes making assumptions on what will drive them in the future—a tool is created that canhelp suggest the main changes in the settlement and activity patterns of the globe in the future [10]. These spatial patternsare here termed megapatterns because they span wide spatial and temporal scales.

The two related terms, or concepts: megatrends and megapatterns, are rather recent. One of the first authors to definemegatrends was the futurologist Naisbitt [11]. Makridakis [12], a pioneer in identifying megapatterns and a scholar ofmanagement theory, notes: ‘‘In order to forecast the long term, it is necessary to look at information going as far back aspossible and to identify trends, then to study how such trends might change in the future and their effect on society, workand jobs’’. [12, p. 69]

The development of the impact of the drivers of the megapatterns is uncertain, as with everything that may happen in thedistant future. In some cases, as with global warming, many technical solutions are possible to facilitate adaption. Suchsolutions will lessen the pressure on people to migrate. The sites of activities like agriculture and resource exploitation aremore likely to migrate. This possibility of detaching the migration of activities and people has come about with globaltransport, international trade agreements and the invention of new technologies that require fewer workers.

There exist many reports that estimate the possible number of migrants in the future because of climate change. The 4thAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describes the estimates of numbers ofenvironmental migrants as ‘at best, guesswork’ because of a host of intervening factors that influence both the impact ofclimate change and migration patterns [1]. Therefore no such numbers are included in this paper.

The megapatterns discussed in this paper and that will be of major influence in shaping global settlement in the future,given a warming climate, are classified by their drivers into three types: (1) megapatterns driven by global warming; (2)megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources, and (3) megapatterns driven by an important spatial position.

2. Methods

The term ‘‘pattern’’ is a part of the context created by active time and is used to signify how something happens over time.Dictionaries also give a meaning that signifies a static pattern as, for instance: a pattern of a settlement in a certain period oftime. Dynamic patterns—like the ones dealt with in this paper—are not as easy to describe with pictures as the static ones:they need to be presented as diagrams with arrows that show in which direction each of the global spatial-trends arepointing (see Glossary).

Almost every atlas has arrow diagrams portraying historic migrations and paths of invasion. The best example of theusefulness of discovering and defining large scale patterns on the surface of the globe is from Earth sciences. By studying theglobal patterns of earthquakes, Wegener [13] hypothesized the existence of tectonic plates. His theory was that these are platesthat are drifting on the surface of the globe, creating earthquakes as they collide, pull apart or rub as they pass each other [13].

In this paper, ten types of movements on the surface of the globe—driven by basic forces—are identified as dynamicmegapatterns. The identification of megapatterns as a method to explain the historic development of a single country hasbeen performed, using Iceland as a case example [14]. There, two spatial megapatterns are identified: a pull to the interiorexerted by space and timber and grazing resources after the initial settlement of the coasts of the country in the late ninthcentury, and later, a renewed emphasis on settlement of the coasts with the advent of increased fishing, steamships, anincrease in foreign markets for Icelandic fish, and a population increase in coastal settlements [14].

From this description we see that the settlement of an area, country or region actually develops within a field of forces.Basically, there are two types of forces: a pull force that pulls people towards an area, and the countervailing, push force thatpropels people out of an area [7].

Lee’s pull factors are: job opportunities; better living conditions; political and/or religious freedom; enjoyment;education; better medical care; attractive climates; security; family links; industry; better chances of marrying [7].

Lee’s push factors are: not enough jobs; few opportunities; primitive conditions; desertification; famine or drought;political fear or persecution; slavery or forced labour; poor medical care; loss of wealth; natural disasters; death threats; lackof political or religious freedom; pollution; poor housing; landlord/tenant issues; bullying; discrimination; poor chances ofmarrying; condemned housing; war/civil war [7].

T. Valsson, G.F. Ulfarsson / Futures 44 (2012) 91–104 93

Lee’s [7] pull and push factors are mostly at work on small or medium spatial scales and mostly originate in the socialrealm. Two pull factors are exceptions to this: better living conditions and attractive climates. There are also two push factorsthat are exceptions to this generalization: desertification and drought.

This present paper develops a typology of megapatterns, their relationships and their main push and pull factors. Thispaper also defines the patterns graphically on maps, indicating, with directional arrows, areas that pull or push.

The method created to develop the megapattern theory of this paper divides into four steps: (1) identifying the three maindrivers of the megapatterns by studying historically what has driven such patterns in the past; (2) identifying the directionalarrows by studying topological and thematic maps; (3) defining with the help of historical studies, what push and pullfactors move each of the megapatterns; (4) identifying with the help of history and various impact reports, the impact of themegapatterns, individually and collectively.

The following text lists all of the ten megapatterns, what drives them and this paper’s definition of what push and pullfactors are at work in each of them.

(1) M

egapatterns driven by global warming.

Pull factors: (a) Global warming, and the enormous resources that will be made accessible by the improved sea andland transport in the Polar areas because of less snow and ice. (b) The pull of coasts in warm regions because of theirrelative coolness and their wide range of climates to choose from. (c) The warming of interiors in cold countries. (d) Thecool temperatures of the high plateaus in warm countries.

Push factors: (a) A push away from the central areas of the globe because of heat and lack of water. (b) A push awayfrom increasingly hot, and often dry, interiors in already warm central regions of the globe.

(2) M

egapatterns driven by improved technology and resources.

Pull factors: (a) Improved transportation in an area by ships, planes, rail, and roads. (b) Areas better accessible becauseof better weather and sea ice forecasts, and better communication. (c) New resource development areas of, for example,oil, gas, minerals, and fish. (d) Areas where resources are predicted to be discovered. (e) Resource areas that will becomebetter accessible because of global warming and improved technologies.

Push factors: (a) Problem areas in terms of transport. (b) Areas with overburdened and dated transportation systems.(c) Areas with reduced value of sea and coastal resources. (d) Areas with lessened feasibility of sea or coastaltransportation. (e) Areas with dwindling resources. (f) Areas with polluted soil, water, and air. (g) Areas withdisillusionment about technology, crowding and pollution, push some people towards simpler and cleaner areas.

(3) M

egapatterns driven by an important spatial position.

Pull factors: (a) Areas with a gravitational pull because of ‘‘mass’’: i.e. major, new population and activity centres. (b)The magnetism of the linear centre that runs north of the middle of the globe’s ‘‘ribbon of habitation’’, the area historicallywith the best climate for crops and humans. (c) The magnetism of the centre of the landmass of the globe, which isapproximately located in the southern Urals in Russia.

Push factors: (a) Some major population and activity centres are increasingly crowded, expensive, and polluted, whichrepels some people and locating some activities there. (b) The wish to be located centrally, i.e. close to the centrallandmass areas of the globe—but not in remote areas—will eventually, push more people and activities towards thisglobal landmass centre.

The definition of areas listed here, is partly based on Valsson and Ulfarsson [15], who define areas that gain or lose by: (a)opening of the Arctic sea routes; (b) areas that will change in land quality with global warming, e.g. by the extension ofdeserts, as well as development of new prime land closer to the Polar Regions; (c) areas that are affected by changes wheremost new oil and gas production is located, i.e. areas with declining oil production, and areas with increasing oil production(the Arctic); and (d) areas that will gain or lose by a Polar spatial centre.

Lee’s [7] model of pull and push factors includes an elaboration on ‘‘intervening obstacles’’ between areas that push andpull. In the 20th century these obstacles have changed in many ways. In general, political borders have become more of anobstacle, more dividing, whereas international organizations, globalization, global tourism, and technological innovationshave contributed to a more connected world, in a general sense. This, however, may not, necessarily, make human migrationbetween countries easier. The creation of regional unions, like the Russian Federation and the European Union, on the otherhand, facilitates migration between the countries within their borders.

In reviewing options for responding to the problems of global warming in terms of technology and consumption, there arebasically two approaches: The first is: to ‘‘go back’’, i.e. to reduce consumption and use of resources, and thus reducethe ensuing pollution, like the production of greenhouse gases. The second approach is: to ‘‘escape forward’’, i.e. away fromthe problems of today’s global systems by seeking to create new technological and managerial solutions to the problems. Theauthors believe more emphasis should be placed on this policy option.

3. Problems and solutions in the future

Much of what is said in this paper is based on assumptions about what will be the most threatening problems to the globein the future. It is necessary to define what kind of solutions can relieve them. Frequently, as historical accounts testify, there

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have arisen seemingly unsolvable problems, leading to the rise of doomsayers who even predicted the end of the world.Earlier, doom was primarily attributed to a breach in morals.

Since the beginning of the industrial age, worry has shifted to the potential dangers of pollution and resource depletion[16]. In the last 60 years, this has been compounded by fear of nuclear disaster through either war or accident.

In the time of horse-drawn carriages, for example, the growing amount of horse manure in city streets seemed to be anunsolvable problem [17]. Another example was the enormously growing trend in the use of copper. By predicting copperconsumption in communication technology, for instance, it could easily be ‘‘proven’’ that the world would run out of copperin the 20th century, and that this would mean the collapse of our civilization. But once again we were saved, in this case bytechnology, wireless transmissions and the invention of optical cables [18]. In hindsight it is thus easy to see that for the last200 years or so technology and science have saved us from such dooms and catastrophes. The drive to go forward, perhaps inpart pushed by the fear of doom, has motivated the discovery and implementation of solutions to pressing problems.

In the world of today, the central problem is that nations have to burn enormous amounts of fossil fuels to meet energydemands. However, we can realize that the world is filled with energy-producing potential, and we can say that if we find themeans to harness this energy, in an economical and environmentally friendly way, the problems associated with the use offossil fuels will be solved [19]. The fields of bio- and nano-technology are predicted by some scientists to become total gamechangers in creating new solutions [20,21]. Cheap energy would help countries to prosper, to provide water, and to coolhabitats. This is the key to making it possible for the populations of the warm and dry countries to continue to live where theyare, because uprooting and mass migration into other countries would create serious new problems [5,22]. Cheap, cleanenergy can help solve the most worrisome settlement problems associated with global warming. The disruption of rainfallpatterns and a population explosion in some areas mean that today, potable water has become scarce in many denselypopulated areas, leading to further catastrophes in those areas [23]. Here too we need to widen our horizons, because cleanwater exists in abundant quantities in many sparsely settled regions of the world.

At least in the short term, it is a fact that in many of the highly populated regions of the world, the situation of waterquality and availability is increasingly grave. On the other hand, the water situation in many sparsely populated regions, likeSiberia and Northern Canada, is good; some of it now exist in the form of ice and snow [24]. This water will flow ever morereadily with global warming. There are plans in these regions to reverse rivers that flow north and let them flow south wheremore water is needed. A better idea than to reverse rivers is to move water-craving operations like agriculture to thewarming north, where there is an abundance of clean water, soil, and space. The suggestion to move agriculture north,however, needs critical reflection, because many scientists predict that bio- and gene-technology can help develop plantsthat can thrive in areas of more heat and less water [25].

Earlier in history, most areas of resource and food production had to be close to cities and within national boundaries.Global transportation and international trade have changed this pattern and provide the opportunity to let resource and foodproduction be located elsewhere.

The interpretation in the following sections, i.e. of what the megapatterns will mean in terms of human migration, willtake account of the optimistic view that the main energy and water problems can be solved, so that ways can be found tomake it possible for most people to stay in their home territories. Of course, the scenario of global mass-migration also needsto be researched, though it is beyond the objectives of this paper. This paper assumes that, even as bio-, nano- and other newtechnologies provide new opportunities, there will still be many decades where agricultural and other activities need, tosome extent, to be moved to new, warm, clean and water-rich areas of the globe.

4. Typology of megapatterns

This section presents ten megapatterns that define what spatial developments are at work in shaping the globalsettlement and activity structures of the future. The megapatterns are classified by three types of drivers: global warming;improved technology and resources; and important spatial position. Each pattern is discussed in terms of the forces that pulland push settlement and activities. Weights are not put on the impact of each megapattern, but their order (1–10),represents, approximately, their degree of impact as hypothesized in this paper. The impact not only differs betweenmegapatterns and drivers but also between areas and periods. Megapattern 1: Towards the Poles, is predicted in this paper tobe the megapattern that will have the most impact on shaping the global settlement and activity structures in this century—i.e. if the warming continues.

4.1. Megapatterns driven by global warming

The main pattern of change that has emerged in earlier periods of global warming is the spread of climate, bio-,settlement, and activity zones towards the Polar areas (see Table 1). This spread is now pushed by the extensive warmingtrend of our times. The main global warming megapattern of Towards the Poles has been widely covered in the literature interms of bio-zones [1]. In addition, there are three less known migration trends in times of a warming climate: To coasts in

warm regions; To currently cold but warming central areas of regions; and To high plateaus in very warm regions.The three typology-tables (Tables 1–3) define the megapatterns, and describe what forces pull and push them. The

discussion of each megapattern gives historical examples on how they have worked, and interprets what meaning they mayhave for the migration of activities and humans, in the future.

Table 1

Typology—megapatterns driven by global warming.

Megapatterns driven by global warming Forces that pull Forces that push

A growing pull of the Polar areas because of

their warming, their enormous resources, and

improved sea- and land transport and because

of less snow and ice

A push away from the central areas of the

globe because of heat, lack of water,

crowding, dwindling resources, pollution,

conflicts and high prices

Increased draw to the cool of coasts in very warm,

and increasingly warm, countries. Additional pull

of coasts: a wide range of climates to chose from

Activity and people repelled; pushed away,

from interiors, by increasingly hot and

often dry interiors in already very warm

central regions

Cool interiors of cold countries are largely

uninhabitable in winter. By increased warming

they will draw more activity and people

Push from some coasts because of crowding,

dwindling resources, pollution, costs,

and conflicts of coasts—but less so because

of the warming

Cool, high interiors of very warm countries will

be more comfortable than the coasts in these

countries. Thus these interiors will develop

increased draw

Migration to interiors of very hot regions

will be helped by crowdedness, dwindling

resources, pollution, and conflicts at coasts

T. Valsson, G.F. Ulfarsson / Futures 44 (2012) 91–104 95

Megapattern 1—Towards the Poles (see Fig. 1) refers mostly to the migration of activities towards the North Polar Region inthis century, but less towards the South Polar Region. The South Pole area is the landmass of Antarctica, whereas the NorthPole area is an ocean, the Arctic Ocean. The ice in the Arctic is floating on increasingly warm ocean water, warmed by thewarming Gulf Stream. Because of this, and other reasons, the ice in the Arctic is retreating faster than by and on the Antarcticcontinent, where the ice mass sits mostly on a high terrain. Therefore, except for the ice floating on the water around theAntarctic landmass, the ice there is retreating less rapidly [1].

The ice on the Arctic Ocean is retreating fast. In the period 1979–2010 the multi-year ice retreated over about half of thetotal area. Thinning of the remaining Arctic sea ice has also been taking place in this same period [26]. Earlier it was predictedthat the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean would have disappeared, in the summer, around 2040 [1]. If, however, the rate of warmingof the first decade of the 21st century continues, some predict that the sea ice will have disappeared in the summer as early asaround 2020 [27]. This retreating of the ice is already allowing access to large stretches of the Arctic rim and the ocean floorthat, together, contain about 22% of the world’s oil and gas resources [28,29].

In short: The Arctic and the northern Sub-Polar area will be improving in habitability and offer easier conditions for morehuman activity and will thus pull people and activities to these regions. However, the main change will be in activities. Manyof the workers will only work there in stints, as on oil platforms today, typically returning to their families in more southernregions after each stint. The migration northward will not be as wrenching as might be supposed but rather be a directcontinuum of inhabited areas in the northern hemisphere.

The second most important migration megapattern induced by global warming is the pull to coasts in the eventually verywarm areas of the centrally located regions and continents of the globe (see Fig. 2). In the case of this megapattern it will bethe people rather than activities which will be pulled to the ‘‘coolness’’ of the coastal areas. Examples of regions influenced bythis pattern are central and northern Africa [3], though the pull to the cooler coasts will also be experienced in the warmcoastal regions of the Americas, Southern Europe and in Southern and Eastern Asia.

Basically many coastal areas are, and will be, still more problematic in the future. Some of the reasons are: 40–60 cm risein sea level in this century (higher numbers if the global warming intensifies); hurricanes are likely to intensify and grow innumber; subsidence because of lowering of ground water; and increased wave action because of stronger winds. All these

Table 2

Typology—megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources.

Megapatterns driven by improved

technology and resources

Forces that pull Forces that push

In history improved sea- and coastal transportation

pulled people out of interiors, towards coasts. This

will also happen on coasts in the Polar Regions

Crowdedness, dwindling resources,

pollution, conflicts, and problems

with transport, push people out of

some interior areas, towards coasts

Inland resources and improved land-, river- and air

transport draw people and activity from coasts to

interiors

People and activity may be pushed

from coasts by reduced value of

sea- and coastal resources, and lessened

feasibility of sea- or coastal transportation

Better ships, weather- and sea-ice forecasts, better

communication and frontierism, will draw people

and activity further north and south on the globe

Disillusion about technological and polluted

societies, will push some people towards

simpler and cleaner areas, like the northern

and southern regions of the globe

Table 3

Typology—megapatterns driven by an important spatial position.

Megapatterns driven by an important

spatial position

Forces that pull Forces that push

Major new population- and activity centres

have a force; gravity draw, that will pull

people and activity towards them

Some regions and old centres are lacking in

opportunities for activities, which may repel

some people and activity from them to

prospering centres

A linear centre—located in the northern

part of the ‘‘ribbon of habitation’’—draws

people and activity from both directions

Placement at the edge of ‘‘the ribbon’’ is unpopular

by many people and activities. Internet and other

long-distance communication, reduce the

drawbacks of remote placements

The centre of the landmass of the globe—in

the Urals—will draw people and activity

from all directions, mostly in the northern

hemisphere, with more open borders

and activity

The wish to be located centrally—and not in remote

areas—pushes people and activity towards central

landmass areas

T. Valsson, G.F. Ulfarsson / Futures 44 (2012) 91–10496

Fig. 1. Megapattern 1—Towards the Poles.

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factors add to coastal erosion which, in coastal areas of easily erodible rocks and soils, will engulf large tracts of land. Thiscertainly will make development and habitation in many coastal areas problematic. Therefore the ‘‘the advice’’ ofmegapattern 2: To migrate to coasts in warm regions, needs the qualification ‘‘not into coastal danger zones’’. The safety zoneaway from the coast, due to weather and flooding, can in many cases be quite short, e.g. a few hundred meters. The generalpattern towards the coast therefore still holds.

Today, the interiors of cold countries are relatively uninhabitable. With global warming the forbidding cold of theseinterior areas will be eased [1]. The driving force behind migration to such areas will be not only warming, but also theimproved technology and the growing importance of these regions as centres of huge landmasses. Their primitive interiorinfrastructures will thus continue to develop. These cold, central areas will, therefore, draw people and activities inincreasing numbers (see Fig. 3). Areas that are impacted by this megapattern include, for example, Northern Canada andCentral Siberia, and the southernmost parts of South America and South Africa.

Today, some high interiors of warm countries are rather cold, for example, in the high altitudes of the Andes and Rockymountain ranges in the Americas [30]. But with further warming such cool, high terrains will start to draw more interest andeconomic activity because they will become more comfortable for habitation and exploitation (see Fig. 4). Areas that will beaffected by this megapattern included, for example, high central plateaus in Central Asia, Africa and South America.

Fig. 2. Megapattern 2—To coasts in warm regions.

Fig. 3. Megapattern 3—To central areas in cold but warming region.

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4.2. Megapatterns driven by improved technology and resources

The second driver of human migration and economic activities is improved technology that helps to open up newterritories and new resource areas (see Table 2). This driver will, for example, be at work in the process of opening up thePolar Regions [31]. Table 2 shows the main pull and push forces that are here at work. The discussion of the megapatterns inTable 2 gives historical examples and interprets what meaning each individual megapattern may have for the migration ofactivities or humans on the globe in the future.

In the early 19th century—at the beginning of the industrial age in the West—as most industries were dependent on goodsolutions for the heavy transportation of iron and coal and industrial exports, there was a strong pull towards coasts. Thereason for this was that ships and barges were the only economical way of transporting heavy cargos over long distances.Therefore most of the first industrial towns were placed along coasts and navigable rivers [30]. In this early era seaside andriverside towns and ports prospered, leading to the building of better ships that opened up the way to sail betweencontinents in all seasons, especially after steamships became available. This meant a huge spread in globalization of trade, adevelopment that led to even further prosperity for coastal towns. Industrial fishing on the high seas also contributed to thisdevelopment.

Fig. 4. Megapattern 4—To central areas in hot but warming regions.

Fig. 5. Megapattern 5—Towards coasts.

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Because of the migration to coastal settlements (see Fig. 5), the population of interior areas was reduced, at leastrelatively. What later started to reverse this settlement process of pulling people to the coasts, was the strengthening ofinterior transportation with canals, locks and larger motorized barges on rivers, the development of railway lines, and theimprovement of road systems. This made the often little used resources of the interiors better accessible, which alsocontributed to the increased pull of interior areas [32]. A similar settlement process will start to occur in Siberia and NorthernCanada, with reduced sea ice along their coasts and less ice in the rivers emptying into the Arctic Ocean. This will lead toshipping along the coastlines, and gradually into the interior via navigable rivers. As this happens more areas will open up forresource extraction and other activities.

Improved river transportation and other land-based transportation contribute to activities in continental interiors (seeFig. 6). Historically interior transportation was strengthened with the building of canals, often with locks. Later, larger,motorized barges contributed to this, and then the development of railway lines and the improvement of road systemsfacilitated activity in the interiors. The improved infrastructure made the often little used resources of the interiors betteraccessible, which also contributed to the increased pull of interior areas.

The development of interior areas has now, for example, reached such a degree in Western Europe that today mostcoastal towns have declined considerably—with a few exceptions, like Rotterdam and Hamburg [33]. This is because these

Fig. 6. Megapattern 6—Towards interior areas.

Fig. 7. Megapattern 7—Towards the Poles.

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western societies are no longer based primarily on heavy industry and/or heavy transportation. Transportation in thesemodern societies is principally that of light goods and people, via roads and trains, and—since the early 20th century—airplanes.

Airplanes have of late been a strong force in developing some centrally located areas, deep within continents, like the cityof Brasilia—the capital of Brazil—that was decided on, planned, and established because of its central location. Brasilia is,because of the importance of flights, called an airborne city [34]. Earlier, similar geographically central locations were chosenfor the capitals of countries like Madrid in Spain and Mexico City in Mexico. Areas that will be affected by this megapattern inthe future (see Fig. 6) are the sparsely populated and the little developed interiors of, for instance, Siberia, Northern Canada,Africa, and South America.

Megapattern 7—Towards the Poles, has the same name and diagram, as megapattern 1 (see Figs. 1 and 7). In the case ofmegapattern 1, it is global warming that was the driving force, but in the case of megapattern 7, it is improved technologyand resources that are the drivers. Improved technology means better ships, better weather- and sea-ice forecasts, and bettercommunications that, together with the warming, will open new possibilities to draw people and activity increasinglyfurther north and south on the globe, and even towards hard-to-travel regions, like the Polar Regions.

4.3. Megapatterns driven by an important spatial position

The third type of megapattern is driven by changes in important spatial positions on the surface of the globe (see Table 3).Such spatial patterns are known from the level of cities; for example shopping streets, as linear centres, and commercialcentres, as point centres; and these are areas that people and activities have a tendency to gravitate to.

Today’s mega spatial-system of the globe is the ‘‘ribbon of habitation’’ that spans the central region of the globe. Recentlyit has been predicted that another spatial-system, a semi-global spatial-system will—if global warming becomes excessive inthe future—eventually emerge [35].

Some major countries, with their dynamic and growing population and activity centres, have a force—a gravity draw—that pulls people and activities towards them (see Fig. 8). Some declining countries, and their population and activity centres,on the other hand, are increasingly crowded and unattractive, which tends to repel people and activities from them.

Countries or areas of the new, dynamic point centres of global activity will be affected by this megapattern in this century.The most important of these growing countries that we predict will be those centres of the world that will grow the most pullin the 21st century are the BRIC countries of China (1300 million population), India (1200 million population), Russia (140million population) and Brazil (190 million population) [36]. Brazil’s and Russia’s golden future is not so much in theirpopulation numbers, but rather in their enormous space and resources. Canada (34 million population) will continue toprosper because of space and resources, but its low population numbers mean that it will not become a major centre of globalactivity.

Two of the ‘‘old’’ point centres of global activity will decline, at least relatively, because of two main reasons: theirpopulation numbers (2009) are a low percentage of the world population, and they may already have reached their peakrelative to world growth. These powers are: the USA (310 million, 4.7% of the world population) and the European Union (500million, 8% of the world population) [36].

Fig. 8. Megapattern 8—Towards new prospering point centres of global activity.

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In megapattern 9 we are dealing with a linear centre that is placed in the northern part of the ‘‘ribbon of habitation’’ thatgirdles the globe (see Fig. 9). This linear centre draws people and activities from both directions. Areas that benefit from theproximity to the global linear centre are mostly areas in Europe, North Africa, the USA, and Southern and Eastern Asia.

The centre of the landmass of the globe is, approximately, in the southern part of the Ural Mountains in Russia (see a darkpoint with circles around it in Fig. 10). This centre of the landmass of the globe will draw people and activities from alldirections, though mostly from areas in Europe and Asia. More open borders and co-operation will help this happen in thefuture, especially if Russia joins the European Union [37]. It is a little known fact that Russia’s new immigration policyenacted in 2007 is aimed at boosting its declining population numbers. Also, Russia is the second largest immigrationcountry after the USA; 180,000 migrants enter Russia every year although some migrants are seasonal workers. The numberof unregistered migrants is estimated to be between three and four million [38].

Globalization, and the wish to be at a central location on the surface of the globe—and not in remote areas—pushes,generally speaking, people and activities towards central landmass areas. Cargo airline companies are especially keen onoperating out of central landmass areas of regions and continents in order to reduce their total flight distances on a regionaland continental scale and, increasingly, on a global scale as well [39].

Fig. 9. Megapattern 9—Towards the linear centre of global habitation.

Fig. 10. Megapattern 10—Towards the centre of the landmass of the globe.

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5. Interpretation

This section interprets how the ten megapatterns collectively will shape and change the global settlement and activitystructures in the future and also it may be advisable governmental policy for nations, in the view of the megapatterns. Beforegiving a brief description of the collective impacts of the patterns, it is informative to review how the same, or similar,megapatterns have impacted settlement structures in the past.

Let us first look at the impact of changes in the transportation systems of the world, as described in megapatterns 5 and 6(see Figs. 5 and 6). From this perspective, the advent of the continental railway systems and the development of the globalshipping lanes in the 19th century were of most importance [31]. The importance of these megapatterns grew in unison withthe strengthening of large central cities that, increasingly, became point centres of global activity (see megapattern 8, inFig. 8). Cyberspace, which is created by the Internet and other long-distance communication tools, will reduce the drawbacksof remote placements in this century, thus reducing the importance of megapatterns 8 and 9 (see Figs. 8 and 9).

Megapattern 8, Towards the point centres of global activity (see Fig. 8) will be strengthened as such, however, but certaincentres will decline (e.g. the USA and Western Europe). Others will increase in strength and drawing power (e.g. China, Indiaand Brazil). It is important to note that the location at the linear centre of the globe (see Fig. 8) will not be as important asbefore because the world is becoming increasingly ‘‘flattened’’ through cyberspace [40].

With technological advances in railways, shipbuilding, and navigation systems their field of operation has, in the lasthundred years, been spreading ever further into the cold regions of the far north and south (see Fig. 5) [31]. In the future, itwill be the warming climate and improvements in technology, in unison, that will let the ribbon of global habitation extendstill further into the two Polar Regions (see Figs. 1 and 7). The extension of transport systems into the North Polar Region, andeventually the creation of shipping circles around North America and Eurasia, will dramatically transform transportationwithin the northern regions of these two continents and between the North Atlantic and Pacific spaces [35]. What followsfrom the development of the described new transportation opportunities, is increased commercial activity in the ArcticOcean and in the Sub-Polar Region.

With advancements in global interconnectedness, global air travel has been increasing in recent decades. This trend will,without much doubt, continue into the future [39]. Frequent and long air flights east–west, across many time zones are,however, hard on peoples’ health. It is easier on people to fly north–south, i.e. within similar time zones [41]. The importanceof intercontinental flights may be reduced by the advent of high speed railways that are now being considered for connectingremote regions like China and Europe. Such trains would also reduce the importance of intercontinental shipping, includingover the Arctic Ocean [42].

As it comes to advisable governmental policy for nations individually, in the view of the megapatterns, the most basicadvice is not to restrict thinking to spaces within national borders. This ‘‘broader’’ approach to thinking applies, for instance,to agricultural and resource needs. China, with its ample foreign currency reserves, is in the process of buying or leasingsuitable areas in many other countries [43]. Britain and Germany have started agriculture in East European countries [44],and Germany is building wind farms in Rumania on the Black Sea [45].

Another advisable policy of nations that are likely to face problems because of lack of suitable areas in the future is to tryto seek entrance into regional unions like the USA, the EU, the Russian Federation, and Canada. The last two are especiallyfeasible because of the warming of their rich and enormous northern territories.

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6. Conclusions

The interpretation and evaluation of the overall spatial trends, visualized with the ten global megapatterns in this paper,show that it is primarily the northern part of the northern hemisphere and the far north that will be the net recipients ofsettlement and the concomitant activities that modernize civilization demands. This will mostly be seen as increasedshipping and increased resource exploitation in these areas. The likelihood of greatly reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean ishere the largest uncertainty factor [46]. The increase in Arctic oil and gas activity will be great, mostly because about 22% ofthe oil and gas reserves of the world are estimated to be in the Arctic [28,47].

The central and southern areas of the globe, on the other hand, will be directly impacted by a relative net trend away,primarily due to increasingly excessive heat and lack of water, except along the more temperate coasts and on the highplateaus. The reduction of natural resources, like oil and gas, in the central areas of the globe, will also play a role.

If, in this century, methods can be developed to produce inexpensive, clean, and sustainable energy, the prosperity ofnations will increase. This will lead to added possibilities to produce clean water inexpensively and to cool interiors ofbuildings. This would decrease the need for southerners to migrate elsewhere due to heat and lack of clean water. On theother hand, what will probably be the greatest factor in pushing people out of their living areas is the rise of the sea level. In ascenario of inexpensive, clean energy, the resulting prosperity would allow nations to protect their estuaries and coastlines,as, for example, the relatively wealthy Netherland has been able to do [48].

The nations of the world should work towards the creation of inexpensive, clean energy and wider availability ofsufficient potable water because mass migration on a global scale, in a short period of time, would mean huge political,economic, and cultural problems, and most likely wars.

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Glossary

Activity structure: See structure.

Cyberspace: The electronic space of today has no physical dimensions, so all points on the globe are equal.

Directional arrows: Arrows used to show in which direction each of the global spatial trends, megapatterns, are pointing.

Dynamic forces: Forces that impact dynamic settlement patterns. They divide into forces that pull (transportation facilities, resources, etc.) and

forces that push (excessive heat, lack of water, pollution, etc.).

Dynamic pattern: A pattern of dynamic, spatial developments in an area. See megapattern.

Linear centre: A spatial system where a line functions as a centre. A settlement area around a linear centre is called a ribbon of habitation.

Megapattern: The typical way a certain spatial development happens on a global- or regional scale. Activated by pull or push forces that originate in

environmental-, social-, resource- or activity features. See dynamic forces.

Megatrend: A general trend on a large scale, omitting small scale aberrations.

Ribbon of habitation: On a global scale it is the habitable belt that goes around the globe. With global warming this ribbon will stretch into the Polar

areas. A linear centre runs in the northern part of the ribbon.

Semi-global world: The world of the future—with excessive global warming—is going to be a semi-global world of the northern hemisphere.

Settlement structure: A form-system in a settlement. See structure.

Spatial systems: Spatial types of settlement that originate in the topological qualities of form: a point centre system and a linear centre system.

Structure: A form-system in the world, in a country, region town. There are social, economic- and technological structures. The most important

settlement structures are the activity and habitation structures. Global structures cover the whole globe.