medium term energy market outlook - 一般財団法人 ...eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5205.pdfmedium term...

© OECD/IEA 2013

Medium Term Energy Market Outlook IEEJ Energy Seminar

October 2013

Keisuke Sadamori,

Director, Energy Markets & Security, IEA

IEEJ : November 2013 All Right Reserved

© OECD/IEA 2013

Primary Energy Supply from Fossil Fuels

*Whereas coal, oil and gas displays primary energy, renewables only refers to power generation

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Mtoe

Coal Oil Gas


© OECD/IEA 2013

OIL


© OECD/IEA 2013

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

mb/d Medium-Term Oil Market Balance

Implied OPEC Spare Capacity World Demand Growth World Supply Capacity Growth

Oil: Comfortable Balance


© OECD/IEA 2013

Oil demand: 96.7 mb/d by 2018

Global Oil Demand, mb/d

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OECD, Americas OECD, EuropeOECD, Asia Oceania Non-OECD


© OECD/IEA 2013

Growth led by non-OECD

Global Oil Demand Growth

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

OECD Non-OECD


© OECD/IEA 2013

China to lead Global Growth

Chinese Oil Demand

4

6

8

10

12

1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

mb/d

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

Share of

the World


© OECD/IEA 2013

Global Liquid Growth 2012-18

1.81.0

2.82.3

2.3

0.6

1.4

2.0

0.5

2.4

6.0

8.4

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6

8

10

OPEC* Non-OPEC Total

mb/dGlobal Liquids Growth 2012-18

Crude US Light Tight Oil

NGLs Non-Conv

Biofuels Processing Gain

* OPEC crude is capacity additionsGlobal Refinery processing gains included in Non-OPEC


© OECD/IEA 2013

Price Rise Drives Increase in Capex

Oil Sands

Deepwater

Tight Oil

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0%

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90%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

$B

illio

n

Shar

e o

f C

ape

x (%

)

Annual Capex by Oil Type

22%16%

7%14%

Total Capex (RHS)

Source: IEA Analysis of Rystad Energy. Oil deposits only.

Other


© OECD/IEA 2013

Supply: West Side Story

-1.0

-0.6

-0.2

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

mb/dNon-OPEC Supply - Yearly Change

NAM LAM OECD EUR FSU China

Africa PG & Biofuels Other Non-OPEC Total


© OECD/IEA 2013

OPEC Capacity

33.00

34.00

35.00

36.00

37.00

38.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

mb/d OPEC Crude Oil Production Capacity

October 2012 May 2013


© OECD/IEA 2013

OPEC Capacity Growth

-1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Ecuador

Qatar

Algeria

Kuwait

Venezuela

Libya

Nigeria

UAE

Angola

Iraq

mb/d

Incremental OPEC Crude Production Capacity 2012-18


© OECD/IEA 2013

Non-OCED lead CDU additions

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

mb/d Crude Distillation Additions

OECD ChinaOther Asia Middle EastLatin America Other Non-OECDNet Additions


© OECD/IEA 2013

Rise of the non-OECD Refining Titans

China45%

Other Asia

14%

Latin America

14%

Middle East

22%Other5%

Regional Share of CDU Expansions


© OECD/IEA 2013

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1 Q 09 1 Q 10 1 Q 11 1 Q 12 1 Q 13

Source: Association of American railroads

estimate

1 000 Carloads

US Crude Oil Carloads


© OECD/IEA 2013

New Map, New Challenges

Crude Exports in 2018 and Growth in 2012-18 for Key Trade Routes*(million barrels per day)

* Excludes Intra-Regional Trade

3.1

(-0.6) 3.9(-0.9)

0.3(-0.8)

2.9

1.6 (0.3)

1.2 (+0.4)

-0.3

1.5

1.7 (+0.8)

(-1)

0.5(+0.4)

0.5Red number in brackets denotes growth in period 2011-18 (+0)

6.2

(+0.8)

Other Asia

China

OECD Europe

1.3(-0.3)

1.4 (+0.7)

OECD Pacific

0.3 (+0.1)

0.7(+0.3)

2.9 (-1.4)

NorthAmerica


© OECD/IEA 2013

GAS


© OECD/IEA 2013

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Bcm

Europe North America Asia Pacific Africa non OECD-Asia

China FSU Latin America Middle East MTGMR 2012

Gas Demand by Region (2010-2018)


© OECD/IEA 2013

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Europe North America

Asia Pacific Africa non OECD-Asia

China FSU Latin America

Middle East

Bcm

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2018

Gas Demand Growth by Region (2010-2018)


© OECD/IEA 2013

LNG flows in 2012 (bcm)


© OECD/IEA 2013

LNG re-exports, 2009-12

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mcm


© OECD/IEA 2013

Tight LNG Supply

LNG liquefaction plants

with political instability

with declining gas output

with surging domestic demand


© OECD/IEA 2013

LNG Projects under Construction

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Australia Indonesia Other Asia PacificQatar Other ME Latin AmericaNorway Algeria AngolaOther Africa Russia United StatesLNG with delays

bcm


© OECD/IEA 2013

LNG backed by Long-Term Contracts

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Portfolio LNG The rest of the world Other Asia

China Japan Capacity

bcm


© OECD/IEA 2013

Regional Gas Price Disparity


© OECD/IEA 2013

Gas Demand in the Transport Sector

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Asia China Latin America

Middle East Africa FSU/Non-OECD Europe

OECD

bcm


© OECD/IEA 2013

Non-Conventional Road Transport Demand

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

1990 2000 2010 2015 2018

Natural gas LPG Others


© OECD/IEA 2013

RENEWABLES


© OECD/IEA 2013

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Hydro Bioenergy Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar PV

Solar CSP Geothermal Ocean MRMR 2012 RES-E

ETP

2DS

Renewables on Track in Clean Energy Scenarios

Global renewable electricity generation versus ETP 2DS


© OECD/IEA 2013

Non-OECD Leading Growth

Global renewable electricity production, by region (TWh)


© OECD/IEA 2013

Renewable power spreading out everywhere

Total Renewable Annual Capacity Additions, by region (GW)

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.


© OECD/IEA 2013

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China renewable power generation 2006-18 (TWh)

Hydro Bioenergy Wind onshore Solar PV Solar CSP Geothermal Ocean Wind offshore

China accounts for 40% of renewable power growth


© OECD/IEA 2013

Growth of renewable power accelerating

Historical cumulative additions (TWh) Forecast cumulative additions (TWh)

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Geothermal Solar Bioenergy Wind Hydro

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Geothermal Solar Bioenergy Wind Hydro


© OECD/IEA 2013

Global RE capacity additions led by wind

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OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe

China Rest of Non-OECD

Total wind (onshore + offshore) annual capacity additions by region (GW)


© OECD/IEA 2013

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PV Annual Capacity Additions (GW)

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Solar PV growing out of Europe


© OECD/IEA 2013

But other technologies lagging behind

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TWh


Africa Asia China

Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East

MTRMR 2012

Wind offshore generation projection Concentrating solar power generation projection

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Non-OECD Europe Non-OECD Americas Middle East

MTRMR 2012


© OECD/IEA 2013

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1 100

Total OECD OECD Americas OECD Asia Oceania OECD Europe

TWh

Total generation Fossil fuels Nuclear Renewables Other

OECD incremental gross generation by source and region 2012-2018

RES-E: 60% of new OECD Generation


© OECD/IEA 2013

Over the long term, the power generation mix is set to change

Global electricity generation by source, 2010-2035

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

TWh

Coal Renewables

Gas

Nuclear

Oil

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012


© OECD/IEA 2013

Global climate-friendly electricity mix by 2050

RE 57%

-

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10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2009 2050 2DS 2050 High Renewables

Ocean

Geothermal

Wind offshore

Wind onshore

Solar CSP

Solar PV

Hydro (incl. pumped storage)

Nuclear

Biomass w CCS

Biomass and waste

Oil

Natural gas w CCS

Natural gas

Coal w CCS

Coal

VRE 22%

VRE 32%

RE 57%

RE 71%

TWh


© OECD/IEA 2013

Four Key Policy Ingredients

Clear Strategy and Targets

Smart Incentives

Non Economic Barriers

System Integration


© OECD/IEA 2013

Policy uncertainty is the number one risk to reaching a climate friendly power mix

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Annual additions Projected additions

Expiration of federal PTC

Assumed expiration of PTC at end-2013

Uncertainty over PTC renewal at end-2012

US onshore wind annual additions (GW)

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Annual additions Projected additions

Assumed moratorium on new projects under Special Regime from Jan 2012 onwards

Deep financial incentive cuts and cap for solar PV

Spain solar PV + CSP annual additions (GW) Abrupt, retroactive policy changes

Stop & go policies


© OECD/IEA 2013

Conclusions for policy-making

• Many renewables no longer require high economic incentives

• But they do need long-term policies that continue to provide a predictable and reliable market and regulatory framework compatible with societal goals

• Consistent policy framework more important than specific RE incentive type

• Competitiveness of renewables depends on market design

Fair rules for up-front capital intensive technologies and distributed generation will be key


© OECD/IEA 2013

Distributed PV reaching “grid parity” in some markets

Residential solar PV LCOE vs average retail power prices (variable tariff)

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2010 2011 2012 2013

USD/MWh

Germany Italy California

Average residential electricity price (variable tarif f )

USD/MW

Residential solar PV, LCOE estimates:

Examples correspond to Southern Germany, Southern California and Southern Italy, based on actual average cost of capital, full load hours and variable tariffs


© OECD/IEA 2013

Electricity Security Action Plan (ESAP): a two-years work programme

Generation

Demand Response

Networks

Regional

Market

Integration

Emergency

Preparedness


medium term energy market outlook - 一般財団法人 ...eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5205.pdfmedium term...

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