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The Future of Media

By One of Three LLC9/6/2011

1One of Three LLC / The New Paradigm

The New Paradigm



Vision

Transformation of the Media is going to get huge, beyond any imagination, as well as it will have profound influence onsociety at large, maybe even create a new one. Media, technology and the systems already in play, network infrastructure,convergence and some new economies, changed and shaped how we consume the information, how we use and organizeour time, how we communicate etc. Leadbeater (2000), in his Knowledge economy recognizes the phenomenon “Graying ofthe Calendar”, claiming there is no Sunday any more, which changes our social perception of time, as well as collapsescertain institutions of the society.

Actually, the convergence we are witnessing is not merely convergence of the media channels, content and the technologies;it is also convergence of social technologies and the creation of the new social system(s).

The Attention economy derived from the converged media environment renders the Attention as the most valuable

commodity and the resource; in such economic setting old revenue streams are closing and the new are opening, which couldalso have an impact on an economic infrastructure as such.

Cloud technology has already shaped our present as well as our future to some point. Changes at the media industry are alsonoticeable and challenging: convergence in distribution and even in value-chain (e.g. Telco goes into film and TV); ruptures ina traditional media cash-flow; users no longer storing content locally etc. But the development could be contraintuitive, itcould go into metaworlds, or it could go into brain-to-brain communication, and neural networks, with the media without amotive to communicate the message either in broadcasting and narrowcasting.

In such a complex environment, any company needs to have a flexible infrastructure, optimized system, and to assume itcould take any role in the industry, or even to create new industries and infrastructures.

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One of Three LLC / The New Paradigm



New media environment

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future media/tech/social environment

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Trends


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Convergence

Mass vs. individual media

Narrowcasting

Consumer became spoiled and in a

way a dictator: wants the content

immediately, with the best possible

quality, interactive, with all the info,

extra features etc.

Push vs. pull technology

Consumer is pulling the content rather that ispushed at the consumer.

Packet/file-like consumption instead of

stream

Consumer is attentive to several different

forms of content at the same time, or is

switching between them.



Trends Cloud Technology

Community/Social media

Fragmenting of the audience according to

trend, preference and context. The Audience of One

Further fragmenting of audience to

personalized media.

Consumer becomes a producer (at

least pseudo)

Consumer creates the content ot just shares

the content. Medium without a motive to

communicate message

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Statistics (Social Media) source: Social2B; http://www.social2b.com/index.php/2011/04/21/25-social-

media-statistics, 2011


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Facebook:

· Facebook has more than 750 million “active” users worldwide.

· People spend over 700 billion minutes per month on Facebook.

· The average Facebook user is connected to 80 community pages, groups and events.

· More than 30 billion pieces of content (web links, news stories, blog posts, notes, photo albums, etc.)shared each month on Facebook. Your content should be among these!

· Every month, more than 250 million people engage with Facebook on external websites. I “Like” this! · There are more than 200 million active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.

Can your website be viewed on a mobile device? Have you tried viewing it on your own smart phone?

· Being mobile-compatible is important because people that use Facebook on their mobile devices aretwice as active on Facebook than non-mobile users!

· And here’s an interesting fact… About 70% of Facebook users are outside the United States. Is yourbusiness global?

Twitter:

· eMarketer estimates 20.6 million US adults will access a Twitter account at least monthly this year.

· There are 200 million Twitter users around the world.

· Twitter now comes in English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, and Spanish.

· 95M tweets are written per day (Sept. 2010)

http://www.social2b.com/index.php/2011/04/21/25-social-media-statistics


http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics

http://twitter.com/about

http://twitter.com/about

http://www.facebook.com/press/info.php?statistics





Statistics (Social Media) source: Social2B; http://www.social2b.com/index.php/2011/04/21/25-social-

media-statistics, 2011


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Linked In:

· LinkedIn has crossed the 100 million user milestone.

· LinkedIn said that it is adding 1 million new members every week, which equates to one new member every second. This isastounding to me!

· LinkedIn now has presence in 200 countries and territories around the world, with 56 million of the 100 million users beingfrom outside the US. Another reason to make sure your business is part of the global market!

· On LinkedIn, there are 997,000 teachers, 1,030 chocolatiers, 74 Elvis tribute artists and 1 Martini Whisperer.

Wikipedia: · Over 18 million articles have been written collaboratively by volunteers.

· Wikipedia ranks seventh among all websites on Alexa and having 365 million readers.

· For the first time in January 2011, Wikipedia cracked the top ten list of the most popular websites in the United States,according to comScore Networks Inc. With 42.9 million unique visitors and rank #9, Wikipedia surpassed New York Times(#10) and Apple Inc. (#11).

You Tube:

· 35 hours of video are uploaded every minute.

· 70% of YouTube traffic comes from outside the US.

· YouTube is localized in 25 countries across 43 languages.

· YouTube’s demographic is broad: 18-54 years old.

· YouTube reached over 700 billion playbacks in 2010.

· Over 4 million people are connected and auto-sharing to at least one social network.



http://www.itproportal.com/2011/03/25/linkedin-hits-100-million-user-mark/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet

http://www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics

http://www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia

http://www.itproportal.com/2011/03/25/linkedin-hits-100-million-user-mark/





Broadcasting market US


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The industry continues to experience strong competition from the digital cable and satellite TV

industries. The cable TV industry, in particular, represents a significant threat to future industry

growth, though broadcasters are increasingly negotiating with cable networks to get a portion

of profit from viewers. New media is also posing competition, with greater numbers of viewers

opting for the internet. Successful firms will make adjustments to changing consumer

preferences and deliver a more interactive and customized service.

Source: Television Broadcasting in the US; Jul 25 2011



Challenges


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Traditional media distributors (broadcasters) are losing audiences because of:

The internet and social media

The new players on the scene utilizing on networking infrastructure; like Apple TV which doesn’t dealwith the content, but posses a technology (cloud) and the environment.

Convergence – Telco companies moving into film and TV (even KFC moved into media!)

IMAX movie theaters

But mostly because of they didn't adapt to new distribution infrastructures and converged environment;

the traditional infrastructure for distribution is no more; there is unlimited amount of content as well asnumerous platforms and distribution solutions and technologies.

There is no more TV, as there soon will be no Internet as such, since the infrastructure and value-chainconverged.

New IPTV solutions and technology offer far more optimized infrastructure for delivering content thancable and satellite distribution

All the media are becoming Social Media, not only by the influence the trend has, but by the newdistribution pattern, and the new infrastructure that it deployed.

Yet we have to perceive Social Media as merely a beginning, a simplified infrastructure developing

towards quantum universe, in an eccentric trajectory.

What is fundamental is to stay competitive by creating new environments, creating relationship withdigital communities/tribes and by optimizing distribution technology.



The solution


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Cloud-based technology which can grab content

from anywhere, and deliver it to virtually any

platform, in the best possible quality.

Self-regulatory

Content, without

Gate-keeper.

Interactive and Dynamic content with the mission to

create an ultimate interaction platform which

becomes a service for any information,

communication and interaction.

.



Cloud Technology Cloud computing is a style of computing in which dynamically scalable and often

virtualised resources are provided as a service over the Internet.

In simple words cloud computing can be defined as getting the work done by

sharing and using resources and applications of a network environment without

being concerned who is the owner and manager of these resources and

applications.

The concept incorporates infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service (PaaS)and software as a service (SaaS) as well as Web 2.0 and other recent (ca. 2007-2009)

technology trends

One of the cloud computing news now days is that the revenue for the server hardware

is about to increase. International Data Corporation has predicted that the revenueexpect to grow from $582 million, which was in 2009 to about $718 million in 2014

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Mayor Cloud technology trends

Cloud is getting huge

Killer app of the Cloud is an integrated

ecosystem

The user has no longer a motive to own

or store any content, if they could just

grab it from the Cloud

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The action

To create a relationship with

the consumer and to create

communities.

To optimize architecture and

infrastructure of distribution.

To make content available on

every imaginable platform

(which transforms any media

industry player into amultiplatform interactive

console provider.)

To enable platform for a

interaction; communication,

voting, interactive advertising,

TV e-commerce, personalized

TV/media channels

Self-regulatory communities

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Technology for content distribution (on the

market, based on Cloud)HDTV Streaming Solution End-to-end HD H.264 streaming solution. Stream over the Internet without QoS and at low bitrate.

Complete H.264 HD streaming over the Internet solution allowing service providers to offer HD videos overthe Internet without QoS using streaming protocol

IPTV Solution IPTV middleware servers, IPTV streaming servers, IPTV SD video encoders, IPTV HD video encoders, HD IPTV

H.264 set top boxes and IPTV HD PC viewers.

“In some localities and some countries, IPTV represents the missing link in the quest for distributing low-cost,triple, and quadruple plays to customers. IPTV can leverage some video equipment that already exists fortraditional head-ends, but also requires specialized compression equipment and additional equipment atthe network edge. Major efforts are underway to develop the equipment sets and infrastructure to support

mass deployment of IPTV. Real-time, high-quality video delivery over IP requires unique capabilities such asminimizing packet loss, robust retry and fill, ameliorating effects of network delay and jitter, maintainingrock-solid audio/video (A/V) synchronization, and reducing video artifacts and macroblocking. IPTV is alsobroadening the horizon by making features like accelerated channel change, highly targeted ad insertion,and interactive multi-stream applications feasible.”

Source (www.altera.com/end-markets/broadcast/industry/bro-industry.html#creation, 2011)

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http://www.altera.com/end-markets/broadcast/industry/bro-industry.html

http://www.altera.com/end-markets/broadcast/industry/bro-industry.html



Gate-keeping vs. Self-regulation

10 years ago Korea launched Oh my News, made entirely by the users, but it had an editorial panel and the users were paid

20 USD per piece. The other example is the CNN with its iReport, as there are other examples; however it is a still the same

media distribution, with nothing new in the infrastructure, and without paradigm shift or a new one created.

Self-regulation is the new paradigm, The main point why the content should be self-regulated and not processed through gate

keeping is so called “media framing”, which actually means every gate-keeper has an agenda (puts information in a frame of

its own agenda).

Self-regulation bears within a new paradigm; without gate-keeper it is possible to see what users are really interested in, and

it could be completely contraintuitive, because it will be clear from the start that angles and perceptions of reality are

completely different (as well as values) from those gate-keepers have and are pushing inside their frames.

Self-regulation creates an opportunity (and a platform) for generating not only completely new media per se, but to also new

universes that could have an impact on any imaginable social institution. Furthermore, by hypermultiplying possible agendas

(of users and others), the agendas cease to exist, per se.

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Revenue –

ROI New revenue streams

Since the roles in the media and technologyindustry have shifted and converged, and theplayer in the media industry is merely one ofthe distributors of content in a digitallyconverged environment the, ruled by adictator user, traditional cash-flow has beenruptured, closing some revenue streams andopening others. However, we could also arguethat there is no stream any more.

Recognizing communities, and becoming a culthas became new business model. Servicebased infrastructure – converting thetechnology into service for any need of a user.

New business models Pay per view

Pay per piece

Set top box advertising/sales and product

placement with flexible infrastructure

Brokerage

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Future business models


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Since the infrastructure is network and technology is CloudThe attention would be the most wanted resource, andvaluable commodity. Furthermore, if the Cloud

presupposes ”no ownership” and integrated ecosystem,how the revenue stream would be created? One solutionis the possibility to constantly change roles within theindustry, or even create new industries.Advertising/marketing becomes ad hoc created art byusers, left in the cyberspace to be found or not. Theattention could be a difficult commodity to monetize, asthere is also a possibility for the attention as a resource tocreate new economy infrastructure; as well as we will seethe deconstuction of revenue stream as as system, andcreation of a more complex infrastructure or a system.



Theoretical backgroud

The System theory

The Theory of Entropy

The Attention Economy

The attention economy recognizes what is a commodity and

what is scarce in a digitally converged media environment,

and that is the attention.

The Network theory

The new infrastructure is not hierarchical, it is a flexible networkenvironment composed of week links, which are capable of

constant shifting between the elements.

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References


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Systems theory (von Foerster, 1960)

Chaos theory (Gleick, 1991)

Network Theory (Buchanan, 2003; Newman, Barabasi, Watts, 2006)

Media extension of human body (McLuhan, 1964)

Network vs. Hierarchical infrastructure (Galloway, 2002;

PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2002)

Hyperreality (Baudrillard, 1981)

The Mirror of Production (Baudrillard, 1975)

The Attention Economy (Davenport & Beck, 2001; Goldhaber, 1997; Barbrook, 1997; Berman & McClellan, 2001; Ghosh, 1997)

Mass vs. Individual media (Kompare, 2002)

Convergence (Forman & Saint John, 2000)

Autopoiesis (Maturana & Varela, 1987)

Knowledge Economy (Leadbeater, 2000)

Gift Economy (Barbrook, 1997)

Self-management (Petras & Veltmeyer, 2002)

Etc.



Contact


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Ana Soric / MA in Communications /

CEO @ One of Three LLC /

/ +385 92 1475491 / [email protected]/

/ [email protected] / www.oneofthree.biz

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