MEDIA AND PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT

Tom Black

© 2014 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

2© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |

Despite billions in aid, the poorest people around the world are not much better off than they were 20 years ago.

PUBLIC ATTITUDES ARE NEGATIVE

Base: US, UK, France, Germany Gen Pop (all adults) sample. Sample size 1,000 + in each country. Online. Fieldwork January 7 th-13th 2014

Poor countries tend to stay poor.

Most of the countries that were poor 30 years ago are still poor today.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

US

UK

France

Germany

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CHANGING THESE OPINIONS IS HARDProportion that agree ‘Foreign aid is a big waste’

No statistically significant change in any audience group over the course of the surveyTop 2 shown (Strongly agree + Somewhat agree)

Pre Mid Post

47

44 4340 35 37

4647 48

2627 29

US UK

FR DE

Pre Mid Post

42 39 42

30 29 29

42

4747

22 20 24

US UK

FR DE

Pre Mid Post

67

616266

606160

62

60

4947

45

US UK

FR DE

Q#. QBL4 /QPS6 / QPST6. Please indicate the extent to which you agree with the idea that foreign aid is a big waste.

Pros SkepticsSwings

Indicates a statistically significant change from pre to post at the 90% confidence interval

Questions :

• How can different media help us achieve this?

• How can we measure the contribution of media?

• How should that change what we do?

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WE WANT MORE PEOPLE TO CARE MORE DEEPLY ABOUT PEOPLE LIVING IN THE WORLD’S POOREST PLACES

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THE ‘THEORY OF CHANGE’ IS NOT LINEAR

Awareness

Knowledge

Understanding

Perception

Behaviour

• Individuals’ journeys are messy, reversible, and complex.

• Media can play a role – but there are other (more) relevant factors (opportunity, ability, motivation)

This is almost useless (and blindingly obvious) in this form, except maybe for audience targeting.

Many important questions are left unanswered here:

• CAUSALITY

• Reach

• Attention

• Persuasive effect

• Declared behaviour

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DIFFERENT MEDIA CORRELATE WITH DIFFERENT ATTITUDES

NPR NBC MSNBC Fox News CNN0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

24%22% 23%

16%

13%

Very concerned Fairly concerned No strong feelings

Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know

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LONGITUDINAL TRACKING WITH BIG SAMPLES

Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3

Simple Sizes (Adults)

8,412

6,529

82%retention

New toWave 3

Wave 2 toWave 3

retention

Wave 1 toWave 3

retention

8,000• 4 countries

• 10 waves over 5 years

• Representative online sample, segmented

• Online methodology, with a panel/

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INTERDEPENDENT SURVEYS

Large-scale Tracking Projects

*Grant A

*Grant B

• Identical questions

• Similar methodology

• Significant audience data (demographics) for sampling

• Varying degrees of sophistication

• Integration with non-survey tracking

• Trackers provide the baselines, grants help prove hypotheses.

• Both generate new things to test.

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• It’s actually very difficult to change someone’s mind.

• Knowledge matters, but it’s not everything.

• Neutrality (editorial independence) matters.

• Engagement takes many forms, and different forms have different effects.

• Humour is pretty effective.

The relative importance of each of these factors is very hard to define and specify.

That’s next…

SOME THINGS THAT WE’RE LEARNING