MEASURING RETURN MIGRATION: SOME PRELIMINARY FINDINGS IN TIMES OF CRISIS

1

Jean Christophe DumontOECD, Head of International Migration Division, Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs

UNECE, Work session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

Outline

1. Defining and measuring return migration

2. The magnitude of return migration

3. Return migration in times of crisis

2

Defining and Measuring Return Migration (1/7)

• What is a returning migrant?• Basic definition (adapted from UNSD 1998): persons

returning to their country of origin (A) after having lived abroad (B)

• Time dimension in B:• Permanent migration/Temporary migration• Visit: not a migration

• Time dimension in A: • Permanent return/Temporary return• Visit: not a return

• Country of origin (and return):• Country of birth• Country of citizenship• Other country of usual residence

3

• What is a returning migrant?• Legal dimension of return:

• Choosen• Assisted• Forced

• Observed return may be part of a longer or more complex migratory process:• Back and forth • Circular migration (individual level or group level)• Secondary migration (actual destination is not the origin

country)• « Return » of second generation

4

Defining and Measuring Return Migration (2/7)

• How to estimate return migration?• Direct measurement of exits/returns using

longitudinal datas• Population registers

• Continuous monitoring of de jure population (total or foreigners) • Includes or may be linked with demographic information• Registration at arrival, deregistration at departure statistics on

both inflows and outflows• Inconvenients:

• Registration / deregistration based on prospective duration of stay / absence: people can leave the country and remain in the register

• Usually, does not include illegal residents• Record exits, but often not the precise destination

5

Defining and Measuring Return Migration (3/7)

• Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas– Border collection

• Data collected at ports, airports, etc.• Entry data usually more complete than exit data• Little demographic information• Example: International Passenger Survey (UK)

– Other administrative sources• Residence permits• Work permits• Deportations• Tax or social security data

useful, but partial and count procedures rather than people

6

Defining and Measuring Return Migration (4/7)

• Direct measurement of exits/returns using longitudinal datas

• Detailed questionnaire, demographic and economic information

• May include questions on migration history of household members, on members abroad (but miss full households abroad)

• Panel: tracking entries and exits from sample over time• Issues: size and stability of sample

longitudinal surveys are useful to understand the causes and consequences of return migration, not that much to count return migrants

7

Defining and Measuring Return Migration (5/7)

• Indirect measurement of returns to country of origin– Censuses of emigration countries: the 5-year question

• Country of residence 5 years ago, focus on people born in the country

• By definition, information on origin and destination• Ability to compare return migrants with non-migrants • If matched with census in immigration country: ability to add

current migrants to the comparison• Inconvenient: not easy to find microdata (but things are

improving)

8

Defining and Measuring Return Migration (6/7)

• Indirect measurement of departures from the country of destination– Censuses of immigration countries: the population cell

method• Comparing the size of a given population between two successive

censuses • Advantages : exhaustivity, good deal of demographic information • Inconvenients: low frequency, time lag, only capture exits (no

mention of destination), does not capture complex moves

9

Defining and Measuring Return Migration (7/7)

The Magnitude of Return Migration (1/2)

• Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS– Challenges:

• Improvement of the survey over time • Variations in non-reponses rates regarding place of birth/duration

of stay• Concentration of responses about length of stay (at 5 years of

residence)

Stocks of cohorts are volatile must be smoothed to estimate retention rates

– Smoothing method:• Construction of an envelope around the original cohort

10

The Magnitude of Return Migration (2/2)

• Indirect measurement of departures from selected European countries, based on LFS

United Kingdom

DenmarkBelgium

Ireland

11

Return Migration in Times of Crisis (1/4)

• Determinants of return migration (OECD 2008, Part III)– Failure to integrate into the host country and changes the in

economic situation of the home country– The Individuals’ preference for their home country– Achievement of savings objective– Greater employment opportunities in their home country

Prevailing economic/labour market conditions in destination countries

• Uncertain impact of economic crisis – Relative size of the shock (origin vs destination

countries)– Effect of the crisis on the possibility to remain– Likelihood to be (re)admitted in the future

12

Return Migration in Times of Crisis (2/4)

• Return migration during past economic crisis– Scarse evidence; mixed results:

• Germany, oil crisis of the 1970s: most of migrants are reluctant to leave (10/15% of guest workers went back to their home countries) (Dobson, 2009)

• Europe, economic crisis of the 1970s: family reunification of temporary migrant workers; lower return rates in the 1980s (OECD 2009, Castles 2009)

• United States, economic crisis of the 1930s: negative net migration; significant returns to Mexico (OECD, 2009)

• Asian Financial crisis, 1997-99: no repercussions on labour migration outflows in the region (Hugo, 2002)

– Issue: identifying the impact of changes in economic conditions on migration outflows while migration policies foster returns/limit entries

13

Return Migration in Times of Crisis (3/4)

• The impact of the recent downturn– Peculiarity of the 2008 economic crisis

• Severity/quick diffusion/hits sectors where immigrants are concentrated High returns? Variations across countries and migrant groups

– Propensity to return depends on individual and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants

• Job stability, ability to save– determines Bolivians migrants to return from Spain (Bastia, 2011)

• Male labour migrants, 18- to 40-year-old migrants low educated– 1/3 reduction in migration flows from the US to Mexico (Rendall et al.,

2011)• Outflows differs for EU-12 and non-EU migrants in Europe

– Ireland, 2008 : +16.7% in the outflows of non-EU migrants, +57% for EU12 migrants (EHRC and MPI, 2009)

14

Return Migration in Times of Crisis (4/4)

• The impact of the recent downturnPreliminary estimates of re-emigration rates after 5 years of

residence in selected European countries (for cohorts entering between 2000-2005)

• Results to take with caution, in line with re-emigration rates for the period 1993-98 (OECD, 2008, Part III)

• Little changes in re-emigration rates before/after the crisis• Exceptions: Ireland(19%35%), UK (18%24%)

15

Conclusion

• The methodology presents limitations but enables to get an updated appraisal of re-emigration

• Results need to be expanded:– To other non European OECD countries– By migrants groups, notably by country/region of origin

16