measles partnership meeting update on vaccine supply washington, 27-28th february 2007 unicef supply...
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Measles Partnership MeetingUpdate on Vaccine Supply
Washington, 27-28th February 2007UNICEF Supply Division
Countries UNICEF procures on behalf of
All Vaccines
Part of the Vaccines
UNICEF procures immunization supplies on behalf of 80-100 countriesVaccines, Injection Devices, Cold Chain (BCG , DTP, TT/Td/DT, Measles, OPV, HepB, YF, DTP-HepB, DTP-HepB+Hib, DTP-Hib, MR, Meningitis, MMR, IPV, Rabies, J.E., etc)
- 2006 immunization supply expenditures: USD 550M (including cold chain)- Over 3.0 billion doses of vaccine, over 900 million AD syringes- ~ 1,800 vaccine shipments
A significant proportion of low income country vaccine needs are met through UNICEF procurement
Data Sources: Population Data: ‘The State of the Worlds Children 2006’Procurement Coverage Data: UNICEF Vaccine Forecast 2006Income Classification: World Bank
Income Grouping
Percentage of Income Group's Children
covered by UNICEF Procurement
Low Income 80%
Lower Middle Income 13%
Upper Middle Income 1%
High Income 0%
Vaccine Security – Ensuring the uninterrupted sustainable supply of affordable quality vaccines, remains
the principle driver of UNICEF Vaccine Supply
Vaccine Procurement Principles
• A healthy industry is vital to ensure an uninterrupted and sustainable supply of vaccines
• Procurement from multiple suppliers for each vaccine presentation
• Paying a price that is affordable to Governments and Donors and a price that reasonably covers manufacturers minimum requirements
Three Pillars of Vaccine Security
• Appropriate Contracting
• Firm Funding
• Accurate Forecasting
Vaccine Security remains a critical issue Positive trends are seen in the
new marketsHepB vaccine offered to UNICEF 1993-2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mil
lio
ns
of
do
ses
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s o
s D
ose
s
$0.000
$0.200
$0.400
$0.600
$0.800
$1.000
$1.200
$1.400
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s o
f D
ose
s
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
DTP-HepB DTP-HepB/Hib
Market development- Positive trends lead by HepB market
Critical Stage of Introduction of DTP-HepB and DTP-HepB+Hib
Principles of Vaccines Security remain valid - to ensure a Healthy Market
HepB
However in the mature traditional vaccine markets although there has
been progress made….
TT vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mil
lio
ns o
f d
oses
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
US
D p
er
do
se
BCG vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s o
f d
os
es
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
US
D p
er
do
se
DTP vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mil
lio
ns
of
do
se
s
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
US
D p
er
do
se
Measles vaccine offered to UNICEF 1992-2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s o
f d
ose
s
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
US
D p
er d
ose
BCG
TTMeasles
DTP
Vaccine GroupNumber of
manufacturers awarded in 2001-2003
Number of manufacturers
awarded in 2004-2006
Number of manufacturers
awarded in 2007-2009
BCG 5 4 4DTP 5 4 3Mea 5 5 3TT 7 4 3OPV 4 5 6DTP+Hib 1 1 1DTP-HepB+Hib 1 1 2DTP-HepB 1 1 3HepB 4 5 6YF 3 3 3Meningitis 1 1 1MMR 3 3 2MR 1 1 2DT / Td 3 2 2
Number of manufacturers per vaccine
…there is less Vaccine Security - increased dependency on fewer manufacturers for a
growing demand
= Current Awards
Overview of Measles demandGrowth in Measles demand 1996 - 2006
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Do
ses
(M
illi
on
s)
Measles Vaccines (Procured)
Significant growth in the Quantity of Vaccines Procured
UNICEF Measles procurement profile
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Do
se
s (
Mil
lio
ns
)
Vaccines Shipped - Routine Vaccines Shipped - Supplementary Vaccines Procured
Routine Demand relatively stable, Supplementary activities make up majority of demand – largest impact on forecast quantities2006 peak year, large campaigns undertaken, challenging logistics
Looking towards the 2010 GoalEnsuring Supply for 2007 – 2010
Measles Availability vs Demand 1992 - 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Do
se
s (
Mil
lio
ns
)
Availability Demand
Bidding Activities 2006 - Supply Arrangements in place 2007 – 2009
Offered quantities sufficient to meet the forecasted demand requirements
Data as at time of Tender Activities
Measles vaccine offered to UNICEF 1997-2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s o
f d
os
es
$0.000
$0.050
$0.100
$0.150
$0.200
$0.250
US
D p
er
do
se
High dependence (75% of award) on one supplier for Measles vaccine for 2007Reduction in the number of suppliers awarded due to reduced number of WHO pre-qualified offers received.
However in terms of Vaccine Security the supply is still at risk ….
Measles vaccine offered to UNICEF 1997-2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s o
f d
os
es
$0.000
$0.050
$0.100
$0.150
$0.200
$0.250
US
D p
er
do
se
Responses to the RFP for the 2007 – 2009 supply indicated potential new suppliers for
measles vaccine
Measles containing vaccines are classified as high priority for WHO pre-qualificationNew suppliers would create a more secure market
Awards made for full forecast demand quantity in 2007
Measles Availability vs Demand 1992 - 2009
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Do
se
s (
Mil
lio
ns
)
Availability Demand Awarded Quantity
Reduced award for 2008 and 2009, awaiting Market developments
Additional forecast demand not awarded currently to encourage new entrants
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7
Ma
r-0
7
Ap
r-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Jun
-07
Jul-0
7
Au
g-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Oct
-07
No
v-0
7
De
c-0
7
Do
ses
Total Supplementary 2007 Total Routine 2007 Cummulative Availability
Overview of Measles Vaccine Supply 2007
Peak demand period: June – September may require levellingBased on current information, sufficient supply to meet the demand
Dynamic situation – large Campaigns have a significant impact
Impact of changed schedule of Pakistan Campaign
No Date of Campaign Target Qty Delivery Date5 Phases: 1 March 2007 2,607,785 Delivered
2 July 2007 9,066,827 June 20073 Aug/Sep 2007 6,730,182 July 20074 Nov 2007 15,880,000 Sep/Oct 20075 Mar 2008 39,143,000 Nov/Dev 2007
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
Jan
-07
Fe
b-0
7
Ma
r-0
7
Ap
r-0
7
Ma
y-0
7
Jun
-07
Jul-0
7
Au
g-0
7
Se
p-0
7
Oct
-07
No
v-0
7
De
c-0
7
Do
ses
Total Supplementary 2007 Total Routine 2007 Cummulative Availability
Overview of MR Vaccine Demand
• Historically limited quantities procured by UNICEF
• High variance in demand due to intermittent campaign procurement
• Current Supply Arrangements covered forecasted demand at time of Tender
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Do
se
s
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Do
ses
Demand Quantity New Campaign Requirement
• New Campaign Activities forecast for Q4 2007
• Tender issued, closing 5th March 2007
• Tight Supply Situation, 2 Suppliers
Overview of MMR Vaccine Market
• UNICEF demand for this vaccine is low.
• Current Supply Arrangements covered forecasted demand at time of Tender
• No JL strain available to UNICEF currently
• Product is difficult to manage due to strain preferences from Countries and limited available pre-qualified products.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Do
ses
As a Partnership, what can we do to ensure Improved Vaccine Security?
Continue the Partnership
Accurate Forecasting– Early/ Long Term Campaign Planning – particularly Large
Campaigns– Quantities and Timing of Demand
• Need to assess the overall market demand – including other Procuring Agencies and India Campaign Activities
– In Country Logistics in place
Firm Funding– Secure Sufficient Funding to meet program goals 2007 - 2010– Early Funds Transfer– Support Vaccine Security
Appropriate Contracting– Ensure Adequate Contracts in place– Expand the Supply Base
Thank You !