may this deepawali bring you health, wealth and … pvt. ltd. (a wholly owned subsidiary of smc...
TRANSCRIPT
WISE M NEYA Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
May this Deepawali bring you Health,Wealth and Prosperity
19TH OCTOBER
Shubh Deepawali
2017: Issue 601, Week: 16th - 19th October
Bra
nd s
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SMC Global Securities Ltd. CIN No.: L74899DL1994PLC063609 | REGISTERED OFFICE: 11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road,
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From The Desk Of Editor
(Saurabh Jain)
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC has applied with SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
lobal stock markets gained during the week on the back of easing of tension
between U.S. and North Korea and spate of positive economic data out of the Gmajor economies. International Monetary Fund (IMF) after revising global
economy growth upward to 3.6 percent and 3.7 percent for 2017 and 2018 respectively
warned that good times in the global economy mask longer-term risks because of rising
debt and the search for yield by investors may be adding to the vulnerability of the global
financial system. IMF also said that any quick adjustments in withdrawal of stimulus by
major central banks could cause unwanted turbulence in financial markets and set back
progress toward inflation targets. Chinese exports rose from a year high to 9 percent for the
month of September in Yuan terms and Imports increased 19.5 percent exceeding the
estimates.
Back at home, Stock market benchmark Nifty touched all time high during the week
supported by continuous buying by the domestic institutional investors. Industrial
production (IIP) growth for the month of August rose to nine month high at 4.3 percent
reflecting re-stocking after the GST roll-out. Both electricity and mining boosted the IIP
growth as they grew at a 9.4 percent and 8.3 percent respectively. Consumer inflation
remained steady in the month of September at 3.28 after accelerating for two months on
account of seasonal spikes and rise in vegetable prices. The government will announce
inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for September 2017 during market
hours on Monday, 16 October 2017. WPI rose 3.24% year-on-year in August of 2017, following
a 1.88% increase in the prior month.
On the commodity market front, strong moves were witnessed in commodities as fall in
dollar index and dovish comment on interest rate hike by Fed made commodities more
lucrative for investors. Bullion counter is expected to witness further recovery as weaker
greenback, Diwali demand from India and North Korea tensions is expected to give support
to the prices. Import of gold is expected to pick up in this festival month following the
government's decision to do away with the requirement of PAN for cash purchases of Rs
50,000 and above. Meanwhile MCX plans to launch options trading in gold on 17 October on the
auspicious occasion of Dhanteras. In base metal counter, copper along with nickel can excel
higher as supply concerns along with decline in warehouse stock positions can give support to
the prices. Overall it can move in range of 3200-3500 levels in MCX. Fed's Yellen Speaks on
Economy and Monetary Policy, CPI and GDP of China, CPI of Newzeland, CPI of UK, Euro-Zone
ZEW Survey, German ZEW Survey, BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo, Yellen Speaks to National
Economists Club in Washington are some of the events which are scheduled this week.
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
FD Monitor 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.
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NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy• India's Industrial production grew 4.3 percent year-on-year in August,
which was much faster than the 2.6 percent gain economists had predicted. The July growth in production was revised to 0.94 percent from 1.2 percent reported initially. In August, mining output increased 9.4 percent year-on-year, manufacturing grew 3.1 percent and electricity production rose 8.3 percent.
• India's consumer price index climbed 3.28 percent year-on-year, same as in August, which was revised from 3.36 percent. Food price inflation eased to 1.25 percent from 1.52 percent. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI declined 0.15 percent and food prices fell 1.36 percent in September.
Realty/ Construction• NBCC (India) has awarded the contract for Construction of Multi Storey
Commercial Space at GPRA Colony, Nauroji Nagar, New Delhi on Design, Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) basis to NCC (NCC - State Construction Integrated Works (SCIW) of Administrative Department of Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine - JV) for ̀ 1949 crore (approx) with completion period of two (2) years.
Information Technology• Zen Technologies has bagged an export order for live and virtual combat
training systems worth 64 crore. The order is expected to be expected in the first half of next financial year 2018-19.
Pharmaceuticals• Lupin announced that its US subsidiary, Lupin Inc. has acquired Symbiomix
Therapeutics, LLC. Lupin had entered into an option the company earlier this year. Symbiomix is a privately held company focused on bringing innovative therapies to market for gynecologic infections that can have serious health consequences.
• Lupin has received final approval from the US health regulator to market generic Nadolol tablets, used for treatment of hypertension, in the American market.
Auto Ancillaries• Amara Raja Batteries Limited is looking to make a foray into other battery
technologies while keeping the cost factor at the core of its business strategy.
Metal• Steel Strips Wheels has bagged an export order for supply of Steel wheels
for EU Caravan market. This order covers supplies of approx 40,000 steel wheels. Wheels will be shipped from SSWL's Chennai plant from next month onwards.
• Man Industries (India) has received a prestigious order for USD 142.44 mn. (approx. Rs.925 crore) from GAIL (India) for supply of about 1,16,000 MT. of Line pipes for its Jagdishpur-Haldia-Bokaro-Dhamra Pipeline Project (JHBDPL), Phase II.
• Prakash Industries announced that in the recent Coal Linkages auction conducted by Coal India for Sponge Iron sector, the Company has secured additional coal linkages of 2.10 lakh tonnes p.a. for the next five years. The Company is going to sign the Fuel Supply Agreement in the coming weeks and the supplies will commence from November 2017.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS• US initial jobless claims dropped to 243,000, a decrease of 15,000 from
the previous week's revised level of 258,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 251,000 from the 260,000 originally reported for the previous week.
• US consumer credit increased by $13.1 billion in August after climbing by a revised $17.7 billion in July. Economists had expected consumer credit to rise by $16.0 billion compared to the $18.5 billion jump originally reported for the previous month.
• Eurozone Industrial production grew by a more-than-expected 1.4 percent month-on-month in August, faster than the 0.3 percent rise seen in July. This was the biggest increase since November 2016, when output grew 1.6 percent. Economists had forecast a monthly 0.6 percent increase.
• China's exports grew at a slower-than-expected pace in September. In dollar terms, exports climbed 8.1 percent year-over-year in September, below economists' forecast for an increase of 10.0 percent. At the same time, imports surged 18.7 percent in September from a year ago, faster than the expected growth of 15.0 percent. The trade surplus totaled $28.47 billion in September versus the expected surplus of $38.0 billion.
• The M2 money stock in Japan was up 4.1 percent on year in September, the Bank of Japan said - coming in at 979.3 trillion yen. That beat forecasts for an increase of 4.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the August reading. The M3 money stock was up an annual 3.4 percent to 1,305.9 trillion yen - unchanged an in line with expectations.
`
Meeting Date Company Purpose
16-Oct-17 The Federal Bank Results16-Oct-17 Colgate Palmolive (India) Results/Dividend16-Oct-17 Dewan Housing Finance Corp. Results/Dividend17-Oct-17 Wipro Results17-Oct-17 ICICI Lombard General
Insurance Company Results/Dividend17-Oct-17 Bajaj Auto Results17-Oct-17 Axis Bank Results17-Oct-17 ACC Results18-Oct-17 UltraTech Cement Results24-Oct-17 Zee Entertainment
Enterprises Results24-Oct-17 Mahindra CIE Automotive Results24-Oct-17 HDFC Bank Results24-Oct-17 Infosys Results/Dividend24-Oct-17 ICICI Prudential Life
Insurance Company Results/Dividend24-Oct-17 GHCL Results24-Oct-17 Chambal Fertilizers
& Chemicals Results24-Oct-17 Asian Paints Results/Dividend24-Oct-17 Ambuja Cements Results25-Oct-17 Kotak Mahindra Bank Results25-Oct-17 IDFC Bank Results/Others25-Oct-17 Hindustan Unilever Results/Dividend25-Oct-17 GlaxoSmithKline
Pharmaceuticals Results27-Oct-17 Maruti Suzuki India Results27-Oct-17 Indian Oil Corporation Results27-Oct-17 ICICI Bank Results
Ex-Date Company Purpose
17-Oct-17 Hind Rectifiers Rights 1:10 @ Premium Rs 78/-18-Oct-17 IFCI Annual General Meeting25-Oct-17 Colgate Palmolive (India) Interim Dividend26-Oct-17 ICICI Lombard General
Insurance Company Interim Dividend
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
NOTES:1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
of "Morning Mantra ".2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing
Price Trend Trend
Changed Changed
S&P BSE SENSEX 32432 UP 18.11.16 25627 31000 30500
NIFTY50 10167 UP 27.01.17 8641 9700 9550
NIFTY IT 10924 UP 21.07.17 10712 10500 10400
NIFTY BANK 24689 UP 27.01.17 19708 23900 23500
ACC 1770 UP 06.10.17 1740 1650 1620
BHARTIAIRTEL 431 UP 13.10.17 431 390 380
BPCL 489 DOWN 28.09.17 463 495 505
CIPLA 593 UP 09.06.17 551 560 550
SBIN 252 DOWN 15.09.17 272 270 275
HINDALCO 267 UP 27.01.17 191 240 230
ICICI BANK 271 DOWN 06.10.17 272 290 295
INFOSYS 930 DOWN 13.04.17 931 970 980
ITC 266 DOWN 21.07.17 289 280 285
L&T* 1139 UP 13.01.17 959 - 1130
MARUTI 7874 UP 06.01.17 5616 7500 7300
NTPC 176 UP 04.08.17 177 165 160
ONGC 170 DOWN 31.03.17 185 170 175
RELIANCE 876 UP 23.06.17 718 790 760
TATASTEEL 711 UP 19.05.17 490 640 620
S/l
4
Closing as on 13-10-2017*LT has broken the support of 1150
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
5
SMC Trend
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
SMC Trend
FTSE 100CAC 40
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
869.54
1155.50
-953.85
-439.12-404.13
-24.37
197.90
-1500.00
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII / FPI Activity MF Activity
4.644.26 4.23
4.003.82
-2.16-1.97
-1.73
-1.05 -1.03
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Bharti Airtel Reliance Inds.
TCS Axis Bank Adani Ports O N G C St Bk of India ICICI Bank Tata Motors-DVR
Power Grid Corpn
8.01
5.40
4.704.32 4.26
-2.39 -2.34 -2.16-1.62 -1.49
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Bharti Infra. Hindalco Inds. Bharti Airtel Axis Bank Reliance Inds. O N G C Vedanta St Bk of India ICICI Bank GAIL (India)
1.17 1.16
0.75
1.65
1.251.17
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Next 50
S&P CNX 500
0.60 0.63 0.64
1.16
1.50
0.85
2.11
0.65
1.16
0.08
0.64
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
0.02
0.30
0.06
1.28
0.36
0.00
1.11
0.44
0.02
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times* Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
6
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
TIMKEN INDIA LIMITED CMP: 766.70 Upside:24%Target Price: 949.00
Investment Rationale (ABC) is a manufacturer of tapered, cylindrical and spherical roller bearings and slewing rings. ?Timken India Limited is engaged in the ABC operates primarily out of manufacturing manufacturing and distribution of tapered roller facilities in Bharuch, Gujarat and Dehradun, bearings, components and accessories for the Uttarakhand and the merger is likely to conclude automotive sector and the railway industry. It also by March 2018. According to the management of provides maintenance contract services and the company, the acquisition of ABC Bearings will refurbishment services. Its manufacturing facilities expand its capacity, customer base and locally are located at Jamshedpur and Raipur, which cater produced product breadth. to medium and heavy trucks, off-highway
equipment, railways markets and exports. Valuation?On the development front, it has extended The company has made significant progress during
services footprint in Raipur for the Philadelphia the year FY17 towards improving operational Gears capability to focus on manufacturing new performance across its all its businesses. The and upgraded industrial gearboxes, re-build of management of the company intends to enhance journal, chock, bearing and gearboxes. market share & profitability in rail, aerospace &
power generation. Moreover, expansion of its after-?To strengthening the 'Make in India' footprint, it markets services business, strong balance sheet has made investments in Jamshedpur to augment would bring healthy growth prospects for the the existing rail bearing capacity & TRB ( Tapered company. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a Roller Bearing) capacities to cater to increasing price target of 949 in 8 to 10 months time frame on local & global demand. Jamshedpur Plant was also an expected P/Ex of 51 and FY18 EPS of ̀ 18.60.awarded International Railway Industry Standard
(IRIS) certification which enables the company to export rail products even to European Rail Market.
?The company continues to remain debt free and has generated adequate cash flow to meet its working capital needs.
?It has launched the digitization campaign in automotive aftermarket, Timken Connect, a channel loyalty program which enables it to closely track the secondary sales in key markets & channel marketing efforts to improve sales in the segment.
?It has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ABC Bearings Ltd through a court - approved amalgamate ion process. ABC Bearings
`
Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 818.85/515.00
M.Cap ( Cr.) 5213.56
EPS ( ) 13.35
P/E Ratio (times) 57.43
P/B Ratio (times) 8.44
Dividend Yield (%) 0.13
Stock Exchange BSE
`
`
% OF SHARE HOLDING
P/E Chart
` in cr
Actual EstimateFY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 1,117.20 1,356.30 1,658.40EBITDA 158.00 234.70 270.80EBIT 129.10 184.20 241.50Pre-Tax Profit 138.20 194.10 256.90Net Income 97.20 132.90 176.00EPS 14.30 18.60 24.60BVPS 90.86 107.80 123.00ROE 16.94 17.40 19.75
VALUE PARAMETERS
2.69
9.79
01.96
75
10.57
Foreign
Institutions
Govt holding
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Investment Rationale position to get better terms from suppliers.•Net profit of the company rose 30.75% to 14.50 •Voltamp Transformers is engaged in the
crore in the quarter ended June 2017 as against manufacturing of electrical transformers. The 11.09 crore during the previous quarter ended company's products include oil f i l led
June 2016. Sales rose 13.34% to 130.45 crore in the transformers, cast resin transformers, unitised quarter ended June 2017 as against 115.10 crore sub-station, induction furnace transformers and during the previous quarter ended June 2016.lighting transformers. The company's production
facilities are located at Makarpura and Savli in •With higher volume growth and increased Vadodara, Gujarat with an aggregate installed capacity utilisation, pricing discipline is returning capacity of 13,000 MVA per annum. in the sector, which is expected to drive operating
margins going forward.•Recently, the government plans to electrify all the villages (Scheme - Saubhagya) by the end of ValuationDecember 2018 with the total investment outlay Considering the future plans of the Government such of ̀ 16,320 crore. It is expected that the company as 100% Village electrification by 1 May 2018, Power like Voltamp Transformers, which will provide for all by 2019, and Green Energy Corridor, the outlook supporting infrastructure for the last-mile for company seems positive in the long run. Thus, it is connectivity will benefit from the scheme to expected that the company would see good growth electrify all villages. going forward and the stock will see a price target of
•The Company is debt free since many years and 1393 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a two year having a good amount of investments of its surplus average P/E of 19.48x and FY18 (E) earnings of 71.52.funds in diversified portfolios. The Company has efficient working capital management.
•The FY 17-18 started with an order backlog of 293.48 crores (4622.38 MVA) with sign of slow
revival in Corporate capex in select industries. The Company has a diverse industrial client base and not dependent on any particular industry segment or region to book orders. Moreover, the Company has recorded its best ever performance in MVA term, achieving sales volume of 10189 MVA as compared to 9202 MVA in the previous year, a growth of 10% compare to previous year.
•The Company continued to focus on optimizing its working capital to improve cash position. The Company could leverage its cash availability
`
``
`
``
`
P/E Chart
Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 1367.00/751.00
M.Cap ( Cr.) 1203.33
EPS ( ) 72.53
P/E Ratio (times) 16.40
P/B Ratio (times) 2.24
Dividend Yield (%) 1.26
Stock Exchange BSE
`
`
` in cr
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-17 FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19
Revenue 609.40 735.10 840.60EBITDA 55.20 85.64 113.00EBIT 49.39 101.50 119.00Pre-Tax Profit 90.99 97.65 114.90Net Income 67.97 76.30 97.34EPS 67.18 71.52 96.32BVPS 513.27 591.41 681.14ROE 13.75 13.21 14.29
VOLTAMP TRANSFORMERS LIMITED CMP: 1189.40 Upside:17%Target Price: 1393.00
16.34
19.24
0
47.49
16.94
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: CAPITAL LINE
The stock closed at `1364.35 on 13TH October 2017. It made a 52-week low at
844.44 on 21st December 2016 and a 52-week high of 1413 on 11th September
2017. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at 1180.29
As we can see on charts that the stock is forming a “Bull Flag” pattern on weekly
chart, which is bullish in nature. Last traded week, stock gained over 3% and
manages to close near week's high, which indicates that buying is more
aggressive in the stock. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1350-1360 levels
for the upside target of 1450-1480 levels with SL below 1290.
` `
`
Container Corporation of India Limited (CONCOR)
The stock closed at 926.50 on 13th October 2017. It made a 52-week low at
736 on 15TH November 2016 and a 52-week high of 936 on 13th October 2017.
The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is
currently at 855.17
Stock was trading in the consolidation of 710-880 levels for two years and gives
the breakout of same, so the potential of rise is quite strong. Moreover, the
technical indicators like RSI and MACD are also suggesting buying in the stock.
Therefore, one can buy in the range of 910-920 levels for the upside target of
1000-1020 levels with SL below 850.
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HCL Technologies Limited (HCLTECH)
DERIVATIVES
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QY) (MONTHLY)
The Market Undertone remained bullish with support of consistent FIIs buying in the derivative segment and short covering. Nifty is trading near 10150 level and
all major sectors like Banks, Metals, Auto & pharma are supporting the market trend. Sector rotation is likely to continue further. Derivative data indicates
bullish scenario to continue. Nifty has multiple strong supports at lower levels. Various supports are 10050 & 10100 spot levels. We will see short covering on
every dip. Nifty moving up, with decent addition in open interest indicates strength in the current trend. Option writers were active in recent rally. We have seen
put writing in 9900, 10000, 10100 puts and unwinding in calls. October series derivative data is stronger than September series as we have been continuously
seeing open interest addition post expiry. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls was down and closed at 10.71% while that for put options closed at 11.12%. The Nifty
VIX for the week closed at 11.04% and is expected to remain sideways. Among Nifty Call options, the 10200-strike call has the highest open interest of more than
30 lakh shares and in put side 10000-strike put has the highest open interest of over 70 lakh shares in open interest respectively. The PCR OI for the week closed up
at 1.47 which indicates OTM put writing. On the technical front 10000-10050 spot levels is strong support zone and current trend is likely to continue towards
10200-10250
In lakhs
In 10000 In 10000
BEL (OCT FUTURE)
Buy: Around `170
Target: `164
Stop loss: `173
ZEEL
BUY OCT 510. PUT 10.65SELL OCT 490. PUT 3.50
Lot size: 1300BEP: 502.85
Max. Profit: 16705.00 (12.85*1300)Max. Loss: 9295.00 (7.15*1300)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURE
KOTAKBANK
BUY OCT 1090. CALL 14.80SELL OCT 1110. CALL 8.80
Lot size: 800BEP: 1096.00
Max. Profit: 11200.00 (14.00*800)Max. Loss: 4800.00 (6.00*800)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
SBIN (OCT FUTURE)
Sell: Below `249
Target: `241
Stop loss: `253
BULLISH STRATEGY
ASIANPAINT
BUY OCT 1180. CALL 22.50SELL OCT 1220. CALL 8.50
Lot size: 600BEP: 1194.00
Max. Profit: 15600.00 (26.00*600)Max. Loss: 8400.00 (14.00*600)
RELINFRA (OCT FUTURE)
Sell: Below `456
Target: `437
Stop loss: `466
BEARISH STRATEGY
Call Put
5.4
5
4.3
4
7.2
4 10
.73
26
.49
37
.95
37
.78
30
.96
26
.00
24
.23
12
.57
39
.39
25
.18
40
.89
55
.06
59
.59
65
.49
24
.51
8.3
4
2.7
0 6.3
2
14
.77
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10500 11000
Call Put
-0.4
3
-0.0
4
-1.2
5
-4.7
7
-6.6
1
-2.8
8
1.1
6
1.5
4 5.0
8
2.0
9
-2.0
8
3.9
1
-6
.18 -1
.44
1.3
9
14
.00
36
.42
17
.46
0.1
0
-1.8
2
-1.2
1
-0.8
4
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
9500 9600 9700 9800 9900 10000 10100 10200 10300 10500 11000
Call Put
0.3
8
0.5
1
2.2
1
4.2
3
0.4
1
0.5
0
0.6
1
7.6
4
9.1
4
6.5
4
1.0
0
2.7
2
6.4
4
7.2
1
13
.33
0.7
8
0.9
1
0.6
0
14
.19
4.8
8 5.9
8
0.0
7
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
22500 23000 23500 24000 24100 24200 24300 24500 25000 25500 26000
Call Put
-0.0
4
-1.9
0
-0.3
1
-5
.17
1.6
9
-2.7
0
1.4
3
-1.7
2
18
.71
12
.68
-0.1
9
9.3
4
17
.74
4.6
8
60
.50
3.4
4
3.0
0
3.7
0 11
.11 17
.67
17
.24
0.0
2
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
22500 23000 23500 24000 24100 24200 24300 24500 25000 25500 26000
8
In lakhs
9
DERIVATIVES
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
12-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 09-Oct 06-Oct
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 15.00 7.70 18.75 27.80 23.70
COST OF CARRY% 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.75
PCR(OI) 1.47 1.17 1.23 1.22 1.18
PCR(VOL) 1.24 1.37 1.01 1.07 1.13
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 7.33 0.35 1.43 1.22 5.38
A/D RATIO* 8.48 0.20 2.02 0.87 6.69
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 10.71 10.12 9.41 10.05 9.52
VIX 11.04 11.73 11.11 11.39 11.39
HISTORY. VOL 12.94 12.06 12.26 12.61 12.99
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
#All Future Stock
Top 10 short build upTop 10 long build up
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
NBCC 242.85 12.33% 4467000 51.01%
STAR 867.10 2.99% 3761000 32.97%
SRF 1764.80 11.24% 841000 30.09%
BRITANNIA 4570.75 4.27% 744200 26.44%
HAVELLS 533.80 4.44% 4036000 24.34%
PEL 2754.50 1.54% 1398000 22.63%
TCS 2538.35 3.61% 7970000 18.32%
TVSMOTOR 691.05 4.47% 6258000 17.81%
VOLTAS 537.40 1.17% 3292000 15.27%
HINDALCO 264.40 5.13% 41450500 15.11%
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
PFC 120.55 -4.29% 34428000 31.00%
CUMMINSIND 901.30 -1.56% 636600 29.55%
AMARAJABAT 697.05 -1.23% 2523600 28.08%
PCJEWELLER 365.00 -2.85% 11352000 14.39%
POWERGRID 203.15 -1.26% 22636000 14.21%
PTC 120.40 -3.91% 16328000 13.26%
JISLJALEQS 93.60 -5.12% 45198000 12.90%
BANKINDIA 133.30 -6.16% 19752000 12.39%
CANBK 304.85 -3.48% 12733836 11.72%
RAMCOCEM 693.50 -2.19% 453600 11.18%
In Cr. In Cr.
12-Oct 11-Oct 10-Oct 09-Oct 06-Oct
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 23.90 4.10 26.70 54.45 38.05
COST OF CARRY% 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.75
PCR(OI) 1.63 1.62 1.54 1.46 1.33
PCR(VOL) 1.04 1.13 1.23 0.98 0.92
A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 11.00 0.09 2.00 1.40 11.00
#A/D RATIO 6.33 0.16 2.50 1.20 10.00
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 11.73 13.88 10.07 12.39 13.06
VIX 11.04 11.73 11.11 11.39 11.39
HISTORY. VOL 13.87 13.38 12.95 13.22 13.58
- 25
0
34
2
32
4
80
2
- 49
0
31
2
- 30
- 39
1
76
8
26
3
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
28-Sep 29-Sep 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct
- 11
24
65
22
18
18
33
12
92 15
26
69
9
37
1
21
01
10
80
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
28-Sep 29-Sep 3-Oct 4-Oct 5-Oct 6-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct
10
SPICES
The one sided downtrend of soybean futures (Nov) may take a pause as it may take support near 2865 levels. After the recent crash of prices, the farmers have slowed down their pace of bring their produce to the mandis. Further, the central government has given approval for procurement of 100,000 tons soybean from farmers in Maharashtra and 150,000 tons of the oilseed from Rajasthan at minimum support price. NAFED has started procuring soybean sown during the 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) Kharif season in Rajasthan at 13 centres in Kota, Jhalawar, Bundi and Baran districts under the price support scheme. Ref. soy oil futures (Nov) is likely to trade sideways in the range of 658-670 levels. In days to come, not much of an upside is likely to be seen as the retail demand is not improving considering the upcoming Diwali festival season so the bulk buyers have opted to stay away. Further stock of soy oil at port is sufficient to meet the near term demand so importers are staying away from bulk purchases. CPO futures (Nov) may consolidate in the range of 525-540 levels. The sentiments of palm oil in the domestic as well in the international market are bearish owing to larger stocks; hence the upside may remain capped. The uptrend of mustard futures (Nov) might remain capped as it is facing some confrontation near 3860 levels & till it surpasses the resistance, the upside may remain capped. The market participants are cautious as the sowing season has approached. The sowing of Mustard seed in Rajasthan starts by 5th October and ends on 20th November but if sowing does not pick up by 16th October then we may see good rally in mustard prices.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
OTHER COMMODITIES
Kapas futures (April) may continue to show consolidation in the range of 860-890 levels. The Mother Nature brings heavy rains is making difficult for the farmers to harvest the cotton across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana. It is being anticipated that supply flow of new cotton crop may get hampered by 8 to 10 days than the normal harvesting dates creating a tight supply scenario in the market. The cotton that's arriving in the markets has higher moisture of over 10-12 per cent, while the acceptable moisture levels are 9-10%. However, all mills are buying cotton with higher moisture. Guar seed futures (Nov) is likely to take support near 3675 levels & trade with an upside bias. The price outlook seems bright as supply-demand is likely to be tighter in case production turned out lower than earlier estimates. The supply of guar seed is declining in the spot markets due to slow selling by farmers with anticipation of bullish trend ahead amid lower production estimates. According to trade sources, Guarseed production could not be more than 75 lakh bags and estimated carryover stocks is around 85 lakh bags, taking the total supply to 160 lakh bags. The demand from crushers is expected to between 130-150 lakh bags, leaving behind ending stocks for 2017-18 (Oct-Sept) at around 10-30 lakh bags. Cotton oil seed cake futures (Dec) is expected to consolidate in the range of 1500-1600 levels. Since the start of the new season, the demand is not really improving as the millers are facing disparity in crushing of cotton seed so crushing has not started in full swing. Secondly, the carry over stock of cotton oil cake in 2017-18 is higher compared to 2016-17, which is weighing on cotton oil cake prices.
Bullion counter can witness further recovery as weaker greenback; Diwali demand from India and North Korea tensions is expected to give support to the prices. Meanwhile geopolitical tensions between US and North Korea can cap the downside in near term. Local currency rupee can move in the range of 64.30-65.70 levels. Gold can face resistance near $1350 in COMEX and 30500 in MCX while it has support near $1250 in COMEX and 28800 in MCX. Silver has key support near 38500 in MCX and $16.30 in COMEX. And it has resistance near 41000 levels in MCX and $17.80 in COMEX. According to the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard “The Fed needs to mount a clear defence of its 2 per cent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens”. European Central Bank policymakers broadly agree to extend asset purchases at a lower volume at their October policy meeting with views converging on a nine month extension. According to GFMS “ India's gold imports in September rose 31 percent from a year ago as jewellers increased their purchases ahead of a festival at the end of the month”. Import of gold is expected to pick up in this festival month following the government's decision to do away with the requirement of permanent account number for cash purchases of Rs 50,000 and above. Now that the government has rescinded its directive and gone back to PAN for cash purchase of Rs 2 lakh and above, the demand is expected to go up. Meanwhile MCX plans to launch options trading in gold on 17 October.
BULLIONS
Crude oil prices may remain on a volatile path as increase in US output kept the prices under pressure while increased refinery demand supported its prices. Overall, it can move in the range of3200-3500 in MCX. With the U.S. already out of the summer driving season, there will be less demand for gasoline over the coming weeks this could result in weeks of crude builds as oil production in the U.S. remains high. US distillate stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels, but gasoline inventories surprisingly rose by 2.5 million barrels. Meanwhile IEA stated that demand for OPEC oil would be 32.5 million barrels per day next year around 150,000 bpd lower than the group pumped last month. U.S. exports fell in the most recent week to 1.27 million bpd, but U.S. exports have still exceeded 1 million barrels a day for three straight weeks. Natural gas may trade in the range of190-210 in MCX. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. natural gas stocks increased by 87 billion cubic feet for the week ending October 6. The EIA released its “Winter Fuels Outlook” with a forecast calling for average household expenditures on all major homes heating fuels to rise this winter due to expected colder weather and rising energy prices. According to EIA forecasts natural gas spending will increase by 12%, spending on home heating oil will rise by 17%, electricity prices will rise 8% and propane prices are forecast to rise by 18%.
ENERGY COMPLEX
In base metal counter, copper along with nickel can excel higher as supply concerns along with decline in warehouse stock positions can give support to the prices. China's September trade surplus was $28.47 billion, the lowest since March 2017. The International Monetary Fund raised Chinese economy growth forecast to 6.8 percent in 2017 and 6.5 percent next year, both 0.1 percentage point higher than its previous forecast in July. Copper may trade in the range of435-465 in MCX. According to the General Administration of Customs, “China's imports of copper rose 10.3 percent from month ago to 430,000 tonnes in September”. Solid demand in China has opened the 'arbitrage window' for copper imports. Premiums for copper held in China bonded zones have climbed by $9 this week to $74, the highest in more than two months. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of135-144 in MCX. China exported 370,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products, including primary, alloy and semi-finished aluminium products, in September, down from August's 410,000 tonnes. Nickel can move in the range of700-800. Zinc can move in the range of206-224. Global zinc market deficit widened to 39,600 tonnes in August from revised deficit of 23,200 tonnes in July. Lead can trade in the range of160-170 in MCX. Lead was under pressure on rising supply after a China smelter said it had restarted production. The global lead market narrowed its output deficit to 4,600 tonnes in August from 31,900 tonnes in July.
The recent upside seen in turmeric futures (Nov) might not sustain & face resistance near 7600 levels. The uptrend would get confirmed if it's accompanied with increase in open interest which mostly specifies that long positions are being built up. On the contrary, in this case if we take a closer look; the open interest is declining, which is indicating that the upside may remain capped. Fundamentally, still there is cautiousness amidst market participants as AP Markfed is likely to defer turmeric auction for the second times bids received for the spice were too low to accept. Secondly, the turmeric stocks in the country is estimated around 35-37 lakh bags (70kg each) and this is likely to be sufficient to cater demand up to new crop supply expected from February-March. Jeera futures (Nov) may trade sideways in the range of 18300-19400 levels & witness some lower level buying. The fundamentals are strong as the stock left is thin in the market and there is still a long way for the new crop to enter the market. Jeera stocks in Gujarat estimated to be around 10-11 lakh bags (55kg each), while stocks in other key trading centres are low. The new Jeera crop will now arrive only from February, which means that five month of time span left before new crop hits the market. The country needs around 12.5-15 lakh bags of Jeera for consumption of five month. The monthly domestic/export Jeera requirement is around 2.5-3 lakh bags. Coriander futures (Nov) may continue to remain trapped in the consolidation zone of 4800-5100 levels. At the spot markets, the counter is witnessing selling pressure with every rise because the farmers & stockist are releasing their old produce due to meet the requirement of finance for sowing, which will start from this week.
BASE METALS
11
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMODITY
SILVER MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at `40352 on 12th Oct'17. The contract made its high of
41927 on 08th Sep'17 and a low of 36141 on 10th July'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of
the commodity is currently at 40013.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46. One can buy in the
range of 40250 – 40100 with the stop loss of 39800 for a target of 40800.
` `
`
` ` `
CPO MCX (NOVEMBER) contract closed at 531.10 on 12th Oct'17. The contract made its high of 549 on
14th Sep'17 and a low of 473.10 on 20th July'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at 532.90.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 67. One can buy in the
range of 525 - 520 with the stop loss of 500 for a target of 560.
` `
`
`
` ` `
CRUDEOIL MCX (NOVEMBER) contract closed at 3327 on 12th Oct'17. The contract made its high of
3497 on 28th Sep'17 and a low of 2940 on 20th June'17. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the
commodity is currently at 3324.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60. One can buy in the
range of 3330 – 3280 with the stop loss of 3200 for a target of 3500.
`
` `
`
` ` `
SILVER MCX (DECEMBER)
CPO MCX (NOVEMBER)
CRUDEOIL MCX (NOVEMBER)
NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN NOV 2923.00 27.09.17 Down 3077.00 - 3000.00 3100.00
NCDEX JEERA NOV 19075.00 27.09.17 Down 18985.00 - 19800.00 20100.00
NCDEX REF.SOY OIL NOV 665.05 23.08.17 UP 660.85 660.00 - 655.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS NOV 3686.00 12.10.17 Sideways
NMCE PEPPER MINI NOV 44168.00 11.05.17 Down 55957.00 - 45500.00 46500.00
NMCE RUBBER NOV 12899.00 13.07.17 Sideways
MCX MENTHA OIL NOV 1263.60 20.07.17 UP 980.00 1175.00 - 1150.00
MCX CARDAMOM NOV 1036.30 27.09.17 Down 1100.50 - 1100.00 1125.00
MCX SILVER DEC 40352.00 10.08.17 UP 39213.00 38500.00 - 37000.00
MCX GOLD DEC 29814.00 10.08.17 UP 29176.00 29500.00 - 29300.00
MCX COPPER NOV 449.50 29.06.17 UP 388.25 435.00 - 425.00
MCX LEAD OCT 166.70 20.07.17 UP 141.25 160.00 - 155.00
MCX ZINC OCT 215.25 23.06.17 UP 174.50 208.00 205.00
MCX NICKEL OCT 740.30 12.10.17 UP 740.30 700.00 - 650.00
MCX ALUMINIUM OCT 138.80 10.08.17 UP 129.80 135.00 - 132.00
MCX CRUDE OIL OCT 3296.00 27.09.17 UP 3416.00 3250.00 - 3200.00
MCX NATURAL GAS OCT 195.70 01.06.17 Down 194.30 - 198.00 205.00
TREND SHEET
*Closing as on 12.10.17
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 06 12.10.17 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2121.50 2117.50 -0.19
COPPER LME CASH 6639.00 6813.00 2.62
LEAD LME CASH 2539.50 2568.50 1.14
NICKEL LME CASH 10500.00 11195.00 6.62
ZINC LME CASH 3336.00 3333.00 -0.09
GOLD COMEX DEC 1274.90 1296.50 1.69
SILVER COMEX DEC 16.79 17.27 2.84
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX NOV 49.29 50.15 1.74
NATURAL GAS NYMEX NOV 2.86 2.99 4.40
.10.17
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
05.10.17 12.10.17
ALUMINIUM 1251700 1234025 -17675
COPPER 298525 286925 -11600
NICKEL 387828 383148 -4680
LEAD 156400 153675 -2725
ZINC 251750 267325 15575
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 06.10.17 12.10.17 CHANGE(%)
Soybean CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 972.25 992.00 2.03
Soy oil CBOT DEC Cent per Pound 32.95 33.28 1.00
CPO BMD DEC MYR per MT 2730.00 2711.00 -0.70
Sugar LIFFE DEC 10 cents per MT 371.90 375.60 0.99
13
SPOT PRICES (% change) Gold options - MCX
MCX, the country's largest commodity exchange, plans to launch options trading in gold on Dhanteras this year. Gold Option 28 November 2017 contract and 29 January 2018 contract will be available for trading with effect from Tuesday October 17, 2017.
In June this year, SEBI has allowed options trading in commodities to deepen the market but permitted each exchange to launch options on futures of only one commodity initially. Further SEBI has placed strict eligibility criteria that options could be launched on futures contract of only those commodities that are among the top five in terms of total trading turnover value of previous 12 months. Besides, the average daily turnover of underlying futures contracts of such a commodity in past one year should be at least Rs 200 crore for agricultural and agri-processed commodities, and Rs 1,000 crore for other commodities. SEBI had also instructed necessary guidelines with regard to the product design and risk management framework to be adopted for trading in options on commodity futures.
In line with the SEBI guidelines for launching options on futures, MCX has found gold contract options, only one commodity initially. In August, commodity and SEBI allowed MCX to launch options trading in gold while the competing agriculture commodity-focused NCDEX was given permission to launch options trading in guarseed.
According to Exchange, to start with, the options trading will be available on a 1 kg gold futures contract. Gold options will have a position limit of 10 tonnes for clients and 100 tonnes for members. Traders can hedge their risks at a fraction of the cost in options compared to futures contracts. The launch of options is also expected to boost volumes in futures contracts.
As with equity derivatives, investors will have two types of options — call and put — to invest. If an investor sees gold prices rising, then he can buy into a call option and take a position in a put option if he expects a bearish trend. In both cases, if the expectation of price movements comes true, the premiums on options will go up and investors will benefit. Each option expiry shall have a minimum 31 strikes available — 15 each for In-the-Money (ITM) and Out-of-Money (OTM), and one At-the-Money (ATM). OTM means far from the trading range and ITM means within the trading range. This price range covers wide price movements during contract time but most liquidity and trading usually happens at ITM or the price around which relevant futures are traded.
In order to encourage active participation in the options contracts, Exchange has decided that the transaction charges in Options contracts will be waived till December 31, 2017.
-2.08
-1.77
-0.81
-0.43
0.00
0.11
0.32
0.65
0.92
1.63
1.72
2.02
2.24
2.48
3.06
4.29
-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
JEERA (UNJHA)
COTTON (KADI)
SUGAR (KOLKATA)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
WHEAT (DELHI)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
Contract Launch Calendar
Options Contract Launch Months Expiry Months Contract Expiry Months
October 2017 28th November 2017 5th December 2017
October 2017 29th January 2018 5th February 2018
November 2017 March 2018 April 2018
November 2017 May 2018 June 2018
November 2017 July 2018 August 2018
November 2017 September 2018 October 2018
December 2017 November 2018 December 2018
February 2018 January 2019 February 2019
April 2018 March 2019 April 2019
June 2018 May 2019 June 2019
August 2018 July 2019 August 2019
October 2018 September 2019 October 2019
Options Contract Corresponding Futures
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 65.56 65.60 65.16 65.22
EUR/INR 77.01 77.58 76.83 77.40
GBP/INR 85.85 86.60 85.71 85.82
JPY/INR 58.22 58.48 58.01 58.13
News Flows of last week
10th Oct Japan core machine orders climbed 3.4% in August
11th Oct Fed minutes put December rate hiked in doubt
12th Oct India Industrial Production grew more than expected
12th Oct Euro zone Industrial output rose most in 9 Months
12th Oct U.S. Weekly Jobless claims dropped more than expected to
243,000
13th Oct China Exports rose less than expected in September
EUR/INR (OCT) contract closed at 77.40 on 12th October'17. The contract made its high of 77.58 on 12th October'17 and a low of 76.83 on 09th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 77.12.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 59.47.One can buy above 77.30 for a target of 78.30 with the stop loss of 76.80.
(* NSE Currency future, Source: Spider, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
Market Stance
Indian rupee strengthen against the American dollar in the week gone by and
tested one week high on local bourses tracking sharp gains in local equities
and weak overseas dollar. The overall forex market sentiment got a much
needed leg-up after the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last monetary
policy meeting sounded dovish on rate rise outlook. Moreover, the consistent
selling of dollars by some foreign banks and unwinding of short-term forward
contracts by exporters mainly boosted the rupee trade. In overseas market
the euro also edged higher against the dollar as investor's switched focus from
the euro zone's political concerns to its brightening economic outlook.
European Central Bank policymakers broadly agreed to extend asset
purchases at a lower volume at their October policy meeting with views
converging on a nine-month extension.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (OCT) contract closed at 65.22 on 12th October'17. The contract made its high of 65.60 on 09th October'17 and a low of 65.16 on 12th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 65.25.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 55.84. One can sell around below 65.20 for the target of 64.55 with the stop loss of 65.55
GBP/INR (OCT) contract closed at 85.82 on 12th October'17. The contract made its high of 86.60 on 12th October'17 and a low of 85.71 on 12th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 86.45.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.10. One can buy above 86.45 for a target of 87.45 with the stop loss of 85.95.
JPY/INR (OCT) contract closed at 58.13 on 12th October'17. The contract made its high of 58.48 on 10th October'17 and a low of 58.01 on 12th October'17 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 58.19.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.65. One can sell below 57.90 for a target of 57.00 with the stop loss of 58.35
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event Previous
17th Oct GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a 0.417th Oct GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a 0.217th Oct GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a 1.617th Oct GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.617th Oct EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.317th Oct EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.117th Oct EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) 1.518th Oct EUR EU Extraordinary Economic Summit -18th Oct GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) 4.318th Oct GBP Inflation Report Hearings -18th Oct USD Building Permits (MoM) 1.318th Oct USD Housing Starts (MoM) 1.1818th Oct USD Housing Starts Change -0.819th Oct GBP Retail Sales (MoM) 119th Oct USD Initial Jobless Claims 24320th Oct EUR European Council meeting -
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
IPO
IPO NEWS
*Closing price as on 12-10-2017
Company Sector M.Cap(In Rs Cr.) Issue Size (in Rs Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
Prataap Snacks Limited FMCG 2923.89 482.00 5-Oct-17 938 1250 1246.70 32.91
SBI Life Insurance Company Insurance 68770 700.00 3-Oct-17 700 733.3 987.70 41.10
ICICI Lombard GI Insurance 31783.19 5701.00 27-Sep-17 661 650 700.15 5.92
Capacit'e Infraprojects Ltd Infrastructure 2381.97 400.00 25-Sep-17 250 399 350.85 40.34
Matrimony.com Limited Online Matchmaking 1933.32 501.00 21-Sep-17 985 985 855.65 -13.13
Dixon Technologies (India) Consumer Durable 3110.61 600.00 18-Sep-17 1766 2725 2746.00 55.49
Bharat Road Network Ltd Infrastructure 1532.93 600.00 18-Sep-17 205 204.9 182.60 -10.93
Apex Frozen Foods Ltd Sea Food 1301.56 153.00 4-Sep-17 175 199.9 416.50 138.00
Cochin Shipyard ltd Shipping 7712.33 1442.00 11-Aug-17 432.00 435.00 567.35 31.33
Security and Intelligence Security Services 5785.78 780.00 10-Aug-17 815.00 879.00 790.85 -2.96
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INDUSTRY & FUND UPDATE
MUTUAL FUND
Industry AUM came in at Rs. 20.40 lakh crore in Sep 2017
As per data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), the assets under management (AUM) of mutual fund industry came in at Rs. 20.40 lakh crore in
Sep 2017 compared with Rs. 20.59 lakh crore in Aug 2017. Overall outflow in mutual fund schemes stood at Rs. 16,604 crore in Sep as against inflow of Rs. 61,701
crore in the preceding month. Income funds saw outflow of more than Rs. 50,000 crore while equity and equity-linked saving scheme (ELSS) saw an infusion of Rs.
18,936 crore.
MF industry adds 12 lakh folios in Sep 2017
According to the data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), total folio count of the mutual fund industry has reached over 6.20 crore at the end
of second quarter of FY18. There has been an addition of nearly 12 lakh folios in Sep 2017 with a consistent surge seen in the equity funds category. Out of the 12
lakh folios, the industry has added 9.24 lakh folios in equity funds (including ELSS). Balanced funds continued the positive momentum by adding 2.16 lakh folios.
India's Reliance Nippon Life AMC IPO seeks to raise up to $237 mln
Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Ltd's initial public offering, the first by an Indian mutual fund manager, seeks to raise up to 15.42 billion rupees ($236.7
million) with the company setting a price range of 247-252 rupees per share. The offer by the manager of India's third-biggest mutual fund by assets under
management, which will run from October 25-27, involves a 10 per cent stake sale in the company. Reliance Nippon Life AMC is selling about 24.5 million primary
shares in the IPO. Its two main shareholders, Nippon Life and billionaire Anil Ambani's Reliance Capital, will sell up to 25.5 million and 11.2 million shares,
respectively.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund winds up quarterly interval plan
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has wound up ICICI Prudential Interval Fund II - Quarterly Interval Plan D with effect from October 10. The scheme has been
terminated as the scheme did not meet the criterion for minimum assets under management, the fund house said in a notice. According to the Securities and
Exchange Board of India guidelines, all open-ended debt-oriented schemes have to maintain a minimum 200-mln-rupee worth of assets under management at all
times.
ICICI Prudential MF alters maximum investment amount per investor for 2 debt funds
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has modified the maximum amount of investment allowed per investor under two debt schemes with effect from October 1, the
fund house said in a notice. The maximum amount an investor can invest in ICICI Prudential Regular Savings Fund will be Rs 50 crore, while that in ICICI Corporate
Bond Fund will be Rs 100 crore. However, this will be subject to the aggregate assets under management of such investors not exceeding 10 percent, and the
maximum investment per investor not being more than 5 percent of the scheme's assets. All other features of the schemes remain unchanged.
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund announces change in the fund management
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced appointment of Mr. Prakash Gaurav Goel as the Senior Fund Manager-Equity in the Investments Department of ICICI
Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Consequent upon his appointment, the fund house has announced change in the fund management of a number
of schemes with effect from Oct 9. Mr. Goel will be the co-fund manager of ICICI Prudential Value Fund (Series 3 and 14) and ICICI Prudential Equity Income Fund.
Moreover, he will be replacing Mr. Ihab Dalwani in the fund management of ICICI Prudential Value Fund (Series 16 and 17) and ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund.
Union Mutual Fund announces appointment of Mr. Anshul Mishra as the fund manager
Union Mutual Fund has announced appointment of Mr. Anshul Mishra as the fund manager of Union Focused Large cap Fund in place of the existing Fund Manager
of the scheme and has been designated as a key Personnel of Union Asset Management Company Private Limited with immediate effect.
NEW FUND OFFER
Scheme Name Indiabulls Tax Savings Fund - Regular Plan (G)
Fund Type Open Ended
Fund Class Growth
Opens on 21-Sep-2017
Closes on 20-Dec-2017
Investment Objective To generate long-term capital appreciation from a diversified portfolio of predominantly equity and equity-related Securities.
Min. Investment Rs. 5000
Fund Manager Malay Shah / Sumit Bhatnagar
17
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 12/10/2017Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - Reg - G 54.53 26-Dec-2008 661.74 6.79 16.33 29.41 17.88 21.26 1.91 0.86 0.14 53.32 28.67 13.05 4.96
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - Reg - G 15.70 28-Dec-2015 526.46 4.81 15.35 28.77 N.A 28.62 1.97 0.95 0.22 64.19 29.63 3.76 2.41
Motilal Oswal MOSt Focused Long Term F - Reg - G 17.05 21-Jan-2015 597.63 4.13 10.76 27.26 N.A 21.63 1.90 0.83 0.22 62.30 30.73 N.A 6.96
L&T Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 53.70 27-Feb-2006 2445.64 4.83 12.51 26.49 17.05 15.55 1.84 0.88 0.14 52.68 35.25 2.40 9.67
Principal Tax Savings Fund 202.93 31-Mar-1996 345.00 4.27 13.92 25.26 16.54 17.21 2.22 1.07 0.16 52.59 38.86 5.28 3.27
HSBC Tax Saver Equity Fund - Growth 36.83 05-Jan-2007 185.72 2.30 10.34 22.67 14.92 12.86 2.07 1.01 0.09 55.16 30.14 12.54 2.16
Tata India Tax Savings Fund - Reg - G 17.16 14-Oct-2014 784.51 5.34 12.43 22.66 19.79 19.80 1.97 0.90 0.16 52.62 37.82 6.96 2.60
TAX Fund Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
DSP BlackRock Natural Reso. & New Energy F - Reg - G 35.50 25-Apr-2008 274.18 14.60 14.84 40.02 25.72 14.32 2.38 0.94 0.55 78.12 12.06 0.53 9.29
L&T Emerging Businesses Fund - Reg - G 25.74 12-May-2014 1503.08 5.75 18.28 39.43 26.87 31.83 2.15 0.84 0.33 0.96 54.62 26.76 17.66
IDFC Focused Equity Fund - Reg - G 37.97 16-Mar-2006 335.06 5.34 21.19 35.72 14.13 12.21 1.89 0.91 0.17 45.17 27.72 5.71 21.40
IDFC Sterling Equity Fund - Reg - G 53.15 07-Mar-2008 1598.83 6.97 16.58 34.78 19.23 19.00 2.18 0.89 0.21 25.32 50.52 16.12 8.04
L&T Midcap Fund - Reg - Growth 139.65 09-Aug-2004 1146.75 4.13 15.51 33.87 24.31 22.14 1.99 0.79 0.24 22.12 51.28 8.66 17.94
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 40.96 16-Sep-2010 4301.13 5.29 12.68 33.70 23.17 22.05 2.38 0.91 0.25 3.12 40.43 46.08 10.37
Aditya Birla Sun Life Pure Value F - G 62.14 27-Mar-2008 1540.35 14.85 17.08 30.76 22.82 21.08 2.37 0.99 0.26 28.40 55.93 8.63 7.05
EQUITY (Diversified) Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Annualised
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India Dynamic Accrual Fund - G 59.63 05-Mar-1997 2702.15 7.62 8.23 5.65 9.61 9.47 10.63 9.05 9.89 0.23 2.70 9.95
Franklin India Income Opportunities F - G 20.03 11-Dec-2009 3149.77 7.67 8.19 6.07 9.65 9.46 9.49 9.26 12.91 0.11 2.08 9.76
BOI AXA Corporate Credit Spectrum F - Reg - G 12.89 27-Feb-2015 1245.09 5.75 6.78 5.17 9.72 9.40 N.A 10.14 7.69 0.38 2.40 10.23
Baroda Pioneer Credit Opportunities F - Reg - G 13.12 23-Jan-2015 819.36 5.61 6.20 4.30 8.97 9.07 N.A 10.49 8.44 0.33 2.90 8.23
Franklin India Corporate Bond Opportunities F - G 17.51 07-Dec-2011 6720.71 8.02 8.05 6.03 9.10 9.04 9.46 10.05 10.73 0.13 2.48 9.94
Aditya Birla Sun Life Corporate Bond F - Reg - G 12.59 17-Apr-2015 3296.88 5.26 5.79 3.03 9.69 8.81 N.A 9.69 11.35 0.21 2.97 8.89
Franklin India IBA - Growth 59.56 23-Jun-1997 969.78 5.64 6.76 4.27 8.84 8.71 9.39 9.18 11.99 0.10 2.23 8.73
INCOME FUND
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Years) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India STIP - Growth 3564.28 31-Jan-2002 8574.52 8.46 8.49 6.03 9.94 9.63 9.45 8.43 12.87 0.11 2.52 9.82
Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 21.45 25-Mar-2009 11101.30 5.89 4.93 2.46 9.43 7.90 9.98 9.33 13.38 0.14 4.16 8.73
Aditya Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond F - Ret - DAP 20.89 08-Apr-2009 12881.00 2.67 -8.94 -9.58 9.09 4.21 10.39 9.04 35.54 0.04 16.61 7.55
Kotak Flexi Debt Scheme - Reg - G 21.95 27-May-2008 1371.85 4.66 4.32 -0.07 8.91 7.02 9.78 8.74 20.90 0.11 4.67 7.62
L&T Short Term Income Fund - Reg - G 18.21 04-Dec-2010 840.20 6.71 7.13 5.89 8.60 8.78 9.48 9.13 6.47 0.32 1.76 8.27
ICICI Prudential Banking & PSU Debt F - Reg - G 19.58 01-Jan-2010 9412.18 2.98 1.23 -0.86 8.57 7.44 9.79 9.01 17.64 0.13 N.A 7.19
Aditya Birla Sun Life Treasury Optimizer Plan - DAP 201.46 22-Jun-2009 8134.43 4.74 3.85 1.64 8.48 6.55 9.89 8.79 17.78 0.11 3.71 7.24
SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 53.33 08-Jun-2005 8133.18 3.75 11.18 19.01 14.10 14.51 1.50 0.08 55.86 9.54 1.50 33.10
Mirae Asset Prudence Fund - Reg - G 13.21 29-Jul-2015 701.41 3.52 9.45 18.48 N.A 13.45 1.48 0.09 63.68 7.75 0.76 27.80
L&T India Prudence Fund - Reg - G 25.47 07-Feb-2011 6154.21 1.89 8.12 17.79 15.10 15.02 1.38 0.06 45.41 18.14 3.04 33.41
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 122.87 03-Nov-1999 17222.40 2.19 6.98 16.76 14.07 15.00 1.44 0.10 53.69 11.44 0.86 34.02
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 143.03 11-Sep-2000 14268.40 1.20 7.83 16.24 14.22 16.84 1.44 0.08 45.13 20.51 1.58 32.78
HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 485.55 01-Feb-1994 29593.40 -0.10 4.62 15.66 11.13 19.10 1.85 0.06 53.10 12.25 5.97 28.68
Aditya Birla Sun Life Balanced 95 - G 745.51 10-Feb-1995 10453.30 4.09 8.42 15.65 14.78 20.93 1.46 0.08 47.03 22.57 0.45 29.94
BALANCED
18
Mr. S.C. Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group), Mr. Mahesh C. Gupta (Vice CMD, SMC Group) and Mr. Ajay Garg (Director, SMC Group) while signing a
strategic deal with CNBC TV 18 for advertisement.
Mr. S.C. Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group and Senior Member-Managing Committee, ASSOCHAM) with Mr. Jean-Claude Juncker, President of theEuropean Commission during India- European Union Business Forum organized by ASSOCHAM, and other Business Chambers on 4 Oct 2017
at Hotel Taj Mansingh, New Delhi.
Mr. Ayush Aggarwal (Director-SMC Real Estate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.) giving away the awards to the winners of “Virtual Stock Market Challenge”
successfully organized by SMC Global at SP Jain Institute of Management & Research (SPJIMR) college in Mumbai on 5th October, 2017.
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