may 2012 ceri commodity report natural gascubic feet of natural gas hydrates are located in the...

Relevant • Independent • Objective

Steven Chu compared the test to government-funded testing of shale gas production methods in prior years. Government funding of this technology could potentially turn out even better than shale gas research funding, in that the carbon dioxide could be sourced from electricity generation or oil operations and effectively sequestered in clathrate form, while producing low-carbon methane. This could not be merely carbon-neutral, but carbon-negative: in the best of worlds, carbon dioxide injection and methane recovery could actually reduce the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. The potential fiscal impact of gas hydrates is illustrated in the following excerpt from the testimony of W. Coleman Jackson of EnergyNorthAmerica LLC before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in May 2011:1

More than 99% of America’s 320,000 trillion cubic feet of natural gas hydrates are located in the deepwater federal offshore. If even only 1% of this resource is eventually producible, it would add 3,200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Production of this 1%, or 3,200 trillion cubic feet, of our natural gas hydrate resources would generate approximately $3 trillion in royalties and about $4.5 trillion in corporate income tax on this production from the lessees, for a total of approximately $7.5 trillion. When combined with the prior $4.5 trillion, a total of $12 trillion will result from production of offshore oil and natural gas, including natural gas hydrates. This sum is sufficient to pay off approximately 90% of the current national debt without raising taxes. Further, this amount could easily be 50 to 100 percent higher because it is based on decades old seismic surveys in moratoria areas which are expected to significantly underestimate recoverable resources.

History and Global Occurrence In the 1930s, a natural gas production problem in cold climates was observed in the formation of an ice-like, combustible substance clogging pipelines. The substance turned out to be methane hydrates, and this is how they

May 2012

CERI Commodity Report — Natural Gas

Methane Hydrates By Thorn Walden Introduction The amount of gas in place in the form of methane hydrates, sometimes called gas hydrates, constitutes the single largest store of energy on the planet, with total gas volume measured in multiples of 1015 m3

(quadrillions of cubic metres). The energy associated with this gas volume exceeds the combined energy content of all other hydrocarbons on Earth. Methane hydrates are clathrates – methane molecules trapped in cages of ice, existing under conditions of low temperature and high pressure. These clathrates are compact: one volume of methane hydrates on dissociation theoretically yields 163 volumes of methane. It is estimated that about 99 percent of Canada’s methane in place is in the form of methane hydrates. Developments in North America Between 2007 and 2008, a joint Canadian-American-Japanese methane hydrates test, conducted in the Mallik area of the Mackenzie Delta, produced methane using depressurizing technology. It was recognized at the time that commercial production from that area could not occur unless a natural gas pipeline from the Mackenzie Valley were constructed. Such a pipeline would carry mostly conventional natural gas. In 2012, ConocoPhillips, with American and Japanese public funding, conducted a test in Alaska in which carbon dioxide was injected into a methane hydrate formation, displacing the methane. The test was considered a success. United States Energy Secretary

CERI Commodity Report – Natural Gas Editor-in-Chief: Mellisa Mei ([email protected]) Contents Featured Article ...................................................................... 1 Natural Gas Prices .................................................................. 4 Weather ................................................................................. 6 Consumption and Production ................................................. 8 Transportation........................................................................ 10 Storage ................................................................................... 12 Liquefied Natural Gas ............................................................. 15 Drilling Activity ....................................................................... 17

CERI Commodity Report - Natural Gas

were first discovered. In the 1960s, naturally-occurring methane hydrates were discovered in the Messoyakha gas field of western Siberia. Although there are onshore methane hydrate fields in Russia, Alaska and the Mackenzie Delta, it has been estimated that about 99 percent of the world’s methane hydrates are found along continental margins. Methane hydrates have since been found in other parts of the world. Energy-poor countries, such as Japan (Nankai Trough) and India (Andaman Sea), have major offshore methane hydrate fields. China and Korea also have important methane hydrate deposits that they seek to exploit. In Canada, the major deposits are in the vicinity of the Mackenzie Delta, and off the west coast of Vancouver Island. Little exploration has been done to assess east coast potential. In the United States, the largest discovery is offshore Gulf Coast (21,000 Tcf), followed by the Blake Ridge/Carolina Trough off the coast of the Carolinas, (1,300 Tcf), and the Alaska North Slope (590 Tcf). The following figure displays the location of the world’s methane hydrate deposits,2 with the green dots indicating occurrences in northern permafrost regions, red dots showing occurrences identified by geophysical methods, and blue dots representing occurrences verified by direct sampling.

Figure 1: Global Methane Hydrate Deposits

Source: World Ocean Review

Characteristics and Properties Until recently, methane hydrates were considered to be a major nuisance rather than a resource, largely because production costs were found to be high, relative to conventional natural gas. Unlike conventional gas, methane hydrates must: Be produced at a lower rate Be compressed right from the start of production

Require relatively more water disposal Rely more heavily on heating or chemical injection to

avoid plugging Ensure that sand is not produced along with

methane and water Methane hydrates have been invoked as a scientific explanation for mysterious disappearances of boats and airplanes in the Bermuda Triangle. Because ocean water that is aerated by methane hydrates is much less dense than normal ocean water, its buoyancy is reduced; as for aviation, methane has about half the molecular weight of oxygen, so the density and lift of the air are reduced. This makes for a good story, but the veracity of the Bermuda Triangle Mystery has been challenged on the basis that such tragedies have been no more prevalent within the Bermuda Triangle than on other comparably large stretches of ocean. On a very different note, a recent study for the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis conducted by Hydrate Energy International3 has produced sharply lower estimates of methane hydrates in place than those published by the United States Geological Survey and others. Low-grade shale deposits were excluded on the basis that they will never become commercial. The resulting median gas-in-place estimates total 45,311 Tcf for the entire world, including 7,013 Tcf for the United States and 2,228 Tcf for Canada. Environmental Impacts Writ Large There is a concern that global warming is already contributing to dissociation of methane hydrates. Acceleration of this process would further contribute to global warming in a major way, given that methane’s global warming potential is 21 times that of carbon dioxide. In fact, dissociation of methane hydrates has been singled out as the proximate cause of past instances of rapid global warming. The following quotation from the World Ocean Review illustrates the nature of the problem:4

There are indications in the history of the Earth suggesting that climatic changes in the past could have led to the destabilization of methane hydrates and thus to the release of methane. These indications – including measurements of the methane content in ice cores, for instance – are still controversial. Yet be this as it may, the issue is highly topical and is of particular interest to


scientists concerned with predicting the possible impacts of a temperature increase on the present deposits of methane hydrate.

Should dissociation of methane hydrates, due to global warming, become a serious problem at some future time, one could envision a herculean effort to minimize the positive feedback effect by removing as much methane as possible from hydrates before dissociation occurs. Endnotes 1“Statement of W. Jackson Coleman before the United States Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources Concerning S.516, S.843, and S.916”, May 17, 2011., http://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=fe36d378-0cef-84cd-3414-75d74e48f39b 2“Climate Change Impacts on Methane Hydrates”, World Ocean Review, http://worldoceanreview.com/en/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/ 3Johnson, Arthur H. “Global Resource Potential of Gas Hydrate”, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Fire in the Ice, Vol. 11, Issue 2, http://www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/publications/Hydrates/Newsletter/MHNews-2011-12.pdf#Page=1 4“Climate Change Impacts on Methane Hydrates”, World Ocean Review, http://worldoceanreview.com/en/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/


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