may 12, 2020 - usda world supply and demand estimates€¦ · u.s. 2020/21 corn exports are...

May 12, 2020 - USDA World Supply and Demand Estimates Corn Market Reaction: July 2020 corn futures closed up 3 ¾ cents for the day at $3.22 ¼ with a trading range for the day of $3.14 ½ to $3.24. December 2020 corn futures closed up 1 cent at $3.35 ¾ with a trading range for the day of $3.30 ¾ to $3.37 ½. The supply numbers for corn will keep prices depressed for 2010, if they are realized. However, there is still a lot of time between now and harvest for projections to change. Reductions in acres planted and yield are possible. Recovery of demand lost to the COVID-19 economic slowdown will also be a very important factor if prices are able to recover. Brining idled ethanol plants back on line would be supportive to prices. USDA Summary: The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2020/21 is for record high production and domestic use, greater exports, and larger ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 16.0 billion bushels, up from last year on increased area and a return to trend yield. The yield projection of 178.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2019 time period. Despite beginning stocks that are down slightly from a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast record high at 18.1 billion bushels. Total U.S. corn use in 2020/21 is forecast to rise relative to a year ago with increases for domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is projected to rise 245 million bushels to 6.6 billion. Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase from the 2019/20 COVID-19 reduced levels, based on expectations of a rebound in U.S. motor gasoline consumption. Corn feed and residual use is projected higher mostly reflecting a larger crop and lower expected prices. U.S. 2020/21 corn exports are forecast to rise 375 million bushels to 2,150 million, driven by growth in world corn trade. U.S. market share is expected to increase from the 2019/20 multi-year low, but remains below the average level seen during 2015/16 to 2019/20 with expected competition from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2020/21 U.S. ending stocks are up 1.2 billion bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest since 1987/88. Stocks relative to use at 22.4 percent would be the highest since 1992/93. With larger stocks relative to use, the season-average farm price is projected at $3.20 per bushel, down 40 cents from 2019/20 and the lowest since 2006/07. The global coarse grain outlook for 2020/21 is for record production and use and larger ending stocks. World corn production is forecast record-high, with the largest increases for the United States, Brazil, Ukraine, Mexico, and Canada. Global corn use is expected to grow 4 percent, with foreign consumption up 3 percent. Global corn imports are projected to increase 4 percent. Notable forecast increases in corn imports include the EU, Egypt, Mexico, Iran, Morocco, and Vietnam. Global corn ending stocks are up from a year ago, as a decline in foreign stocks is more than offset by an increase for the United States. Excluding China and the United States,

ending stocks are up 4 percent relative to a year ago. For China, total coarse grain imports are forecast up, but below the 2014/15 record. Since 2001/02, China’s largest individual coarse grain import total occurred during 2014/15. Over that same time period realized corn imports reached a high of 217 million bushels. Expectations are for robust demand from China in 2020/21, with 276 million bushels of corn imports from all sources.

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

2019/20 Projected

April 2019/20 Est May

2019/20 Change From

Previous Month

2020/21 Projected

May

Change 2019/20 to 20/21

Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield Planted (Million) 94 90.2 88.9 89.7 89.7 0.0 97.0 7.3 Harvested (Million) 86.7 82.7 81.3 81.5 81.4 -0.1 89.6 8.2 U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) 174.6 176.6 176.4 168 167.8 -0.2 178.5 10.7

Supply (Million Bushels) Beg. Stocks 1,737 2,293 2,140 2,221 2,221 0 2,098 -123 Production 15,148 14,609 14,340 13,692 13,663 -29 15,995 2,332 Imports 57 36 28 45 45 0 25 -20 Total Supply 16,942 16,939 16,509 15,957 15,928 -29 18,118 2,190

Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) Feed and Residual 5,470 5,304 5,430 5,675 5,700 25 6,050 350 Ethanol 5,432 5,605 5,378 5,050 4,950 -100 5,200 250 Food, Seed & Industrial 1,453 1,452 1,415 1,415 1,405 -10 1,400 -5

Exports 2,294 2,438 2,065 1,725 1,775 50 2,150 375 Total Use 14,649 14,798 14,288 13,865 13,830 -35 14,800 970 U.S. Ending Stocks 2,293 2,140 2,221 2,092 2,092 0 3,318 1,226 Foreign Stocks 11,515 11,308 10,413 9,843 10,292 449 10,052 -240

Price and Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) $3.36 $3.36 $3.61 $3.60 $3.60 $0.00 $3.20 -$0.40

U.S. Stocks/Use 15.65% 14.46% 15.54% 15.09% 15.13% 0.04% 22.42% 7.3%

Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2020

World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2020/21 Current Year

Country / Region Beginning

Stocks Production Imports Domestic

Feed Domestic

Total Exports Ending Stocks

World 12,390 46,724 6,937 28,700 45,744 7,175 13,370 United States 2,098 15,995 25 6,050 12,650 2,150 3,318 Total Foreign 10,292 30,729 6,912 22,650 33,094 5,025 10,052 Argentina 172 1,968 0 433 610 1,339 192 Brazil 173 4,173 59 2,283 2,677 1,496 232 Russia 31 571 2 350 394 173 37 South Africa 107 551 0 260 484 91 84 Ukraine 30 1,535 1 157 205 1,299 61 Egypt 55 252 433 579 677 0 63 E.U. 315 2,689 905 2,559 3,425 173 311 Japan 57 0 630 484 630 0 57 Mexico 86 1,102 720 1,075 1,793 24 92 S.E. Asia 124 1,195 695 1,555 1,870 25 120 South Korea 75 3 465 370 467 0 76 Canada 81 614 39 370 583 39 113 China 8,191 10,236 276 7,401 10,826 1 7,876 ROW 794 5,839 2,687 4,773 8,453 365 740 World Corn Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current (2020/21) - Previous Year

(2019/20)



Feed Domestic


World -244 2,907 283 777 1,227 642 1,435 United States -122 2,303 -20 375 510 425 1,226 Total Foreign -122 604 303 402 717 218 209 Argentina 79 - - 28 20 20 40 Brazil -31 197 12 39 39 79 59 Russia 16 9 - 8 12 8 6 South Africa 35 -79 - -8 -12 -8 -24 Ukraine -21 122 - 28 28 39 34 Egypt -16 0 43 20 20 - 7 E.U. 9 66 79 118 138 31 -16 Japan - - - -4 -4 - 4 Mexico -114 118 39 31 41 -4 6 S.E. Asia 7 25 6 31 37 2 -1 South Korea 3 - 16 16 18 - 1 Canada 3 87 -20 35 35 4 31 China -89 -30 - -79 -157 - 39 ROW -3 89 127 138 502 47 23


Cotton Market Reaction: July 2020 cotton futures closed up 1.71 cents at 58.34 cents with a trading range for the day of 56 to 58.59 cents. December 2020 cotton futures closed up 0.27 cents at 57.9 with a trading range for the day of 56.65 to 58 cents. Cotton has been hit as hard as any commodity by the COVID-19 economic slow down. A great deal of uncertainty remains regarding a return of consumer spending specifically on clothing and apparel. Exports will remain an important factor for cotton, thus the implementation of the Phase 1 trade deal and geopolitical relationship with China will be a factor closely monitored.

USDA Summary: The U.S. cotton forecasts for 2020/21 include larger beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and ending stocks compared with the year before. Production is forecast at 19.5 million bales—400,000 bales less than the year before, based on 13.7 million planted acres as indicated in the NASS March Prospective Plantings report. Planted area is expected to be virtually unchanged from 2019/20, but harvested area is projected 2 percent lower, as abandonment rises from 2019/20. The yield is projected only slightly higher, using 10-year regional averages. Domestic mill use and exports are expected to rebound as the world economy begins to recover. Mill use is expected to rise 200,000 bales, and exports by 1 million; but ending stocks are expected to rise 600,000 bales to 7.7 million, equivalent to 41 percent of use. This would be marginally higher than in 2019/20 and the highest since 2007/08’s 55 percent. The price received by upland producers is forecast at 57 cents per pound, slightly below 2019/20. For 2019/20, U.S. cotton production is raised slightly from last month. The export forecast is unchanged, but expected consumption is 200,000 bales lower, and ending stocks 400,000 bales higher.

World ending stocks in 2020/21 are projected to rise for a second consecutive year, but at a much slower pace. With harvested area down globally, production is expected to decline 3.7 million bales, while consumption is expected to rise 11.5 million bales as the global economy begins recovering. Global ending stocks are expected to rise 2.3 million bales, but fall as a share of consumption, from 93 percent in 2019/20 to 85 percent. For 2019/20, the world consumption forecast is reduced to 105.0 million bales, down 5.6 million from the previous forecast and 12.7 percent below the previous year. This would be the largest annual decline in world consumption since the 19th century. World production is raised 1 million bales from the previous month, and 2019/20 ending stocks are 5.9 million higher. The revised year-to-year increase in global ending stocks is 16.9 million bales.

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

2019/20 Projected

April

2019/20 Est

May

2019/20 Change From

Previous Month

2020/21 Projected

May

Change 2019/20

to 2020/21

Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield Planted (Million) 10.07 12.72 14.1 13.74 13.74 0 13.7 -0.04 Harvested (Million) 9.51 11.1 9.99 11.8 11.61 -0.19 11.35 -0.26

U.S. Average Yield (lb/acre) 867 905 882 805 823 18 825 2

Supply (Million Bales) Beg. Stocks 3.8 2.75 4.2 4.85 4.85 0 7.1 2.25 Production 17.17 20.92 18.37 19.8 19.91 0.11 19.5 -0.41 Imports 0.01 0 0 0.01 0.01 0 0.01 0 Total Supply 20.98 23.68 22.57 24.66 24.77 0.11 26.61 1.84

Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bales) Domestic 3.25 3.23 2.98 2.9 2.7 -0.2 2.9 0.2 Exports 14.92 16.28 14.76 15 15 0 16 1 Total Use 18.17 19.5 17.74 17.9 17.7 -0.2 18.9 1.2 U.S. Ending Stocks 2.75 4.2 4.85 6.7 7.1 0.4 7.7 0.6

Foreign Stocks 77.65 76.54 75.43 84.56 84.56 0 91.73 7.17 Chinese Stocks 45.92 37.99 35.67 35.25 36.25 1 34.12 -2.13

Price and Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/lb) $0.68 $0.686 $0.703 $0.59 $0.59 $0.00 $0.57 -$0.02

U.S. Stocks/Use 15% 22% 27% 37% 40% 2.7% 40.7% 0.6% Chinese Stocks/Use 119% 93% 90% 97% 107% 10.0% 89.8% -16.8%


World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales) 2020/21 Current Year



Use Exports Loss Ending Stocks

World 97.16 118.95 42.84 116.46 42.93 0.14 99.43

United States 7.1 19.5 0.01 2.9 16 0.01 7.7

Total Foreign 90.06 99.45 42.84 113.56 26.93 0.13 91.73

Central Asia 2.76 5.9 0 4.24 1.38 0 3.04

Afr. Fr. Zone 2.48 6.09 0 0.14 5.54 0 2.88

Australia 0.91 1.7 0 0.04 1 0 1.58

Brazil 13.78 12 0.03 3.2 9 0 13.61

India 18.11 28.5 1.1 23.5 4.5 0 19.71

Mexico 0.79 1.23 0.88 1.85 0.25 0.03 0.76

China 36.25 26.5 9.5 38 0.13 0 34.12

E.U. 0.47 1.95 0.61 0.66 1.77 0.03 0.58

Turkey 2.29 3.65 3.7 7 0.33 0 2.32

Pakistan 2.78 6.3 4.7 10.5 0.15 0.03 3.1

Indonesia 0.68 0 3.05 3 0.01 0 0.73

Thailand 0.1 0 0.93 0.85 0 0.03 0.16

Bangladesh 2.02 0.15 7 7 0 0.01 2.15

Vietnam 1.39 0 6.95 6.8 0 0 1.54

ROW 5.25 5.48 4.38 6.78 2.87 0.00 5.45 World Cotton Supply and Use (Million 480 lb Bales): Current(2020/21)-Previous (2019/20) Year



Use Exports Loss Ending Stocks

World 16.88 -2.76 2.16 5.88 2.29 -0.05 8.17 United States 2.25 -0.3 - - 1 -0.05 1 Total Foreign 14.63 -2.46 2.17 5.88 1.29 - 7.17 Central Asia 0.45 -0.06 - 0.11 -0.25 - 0.54 Afr. Fr. Zone 0.9 -0.01 - - 0.27 - 0.61 Australia -0.66 1.07 - - -0.2 - 0.62 Brazil 1.52 -1.2 - -0.1 0.4 - 0.03 India 8.8 -1 -0.9 1.5 1.2 - 4.2 Mexico 0.02 -0.34 0.18 - -0.13 - -0.03 China 0.58 -0.75 2 3 -0.05 - -1.13 E.U. 0.25 -0.05 -0.03 0.03 -0.01 - 0.16 Turkey 0.7 0.25 -0.3 0.2 -0.02 - 0.48 Pakistan 0.28 -0.3 1 0.4 0.05 - 0.52 Indonesia 0.15 - 0.15 0.2 - - 0.1 Thailand -0.08 - 0.05 - - - -0.02 Bangladesh 0.24 0.01 0.1 0.1 - - 0.24 Vietnam 0.2 - 0.55 0.5 - - 0.25 ROW 1.28 -0.08 -0.64 -0.06 0.03 - 0.6


Soybeans Futures Market Reaction: July 2020 soybean futures were down 3 cents for the day closing at $8.52 with a trading range for the day of $8.49 ½ to $8.58. November 2020 soybean futures closed down 1 ½ cents at $8.57 with a trading range for the day of $8.53 ¾ to $8.62 ¾. While the May WASDE provided bearish stock estimates for corn and wheat, soybean stocks were not as problematic potentialy adding a small glimmer of light that soybean prices could improve. However, any price improvements will be dictated by U.S. planted acres, yield, and the export relationship with China. Needless to say, all three factors come with a high degree of uncertainty at this point in time.

USDA Summary: The 2020/21 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and lower ending stocks compared to 2019/20. The soybean crop is projected at 4.125 billion bushels, up 568 million from last year on increased harvested area and trend yields. Despite lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are projected up 5 percent from 2019/20 to 4.720 billion bushels. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is forecast up from 2019/20 mainly on higher soybean production. The U.S. soybean crush for 2020/21 is projected at 2.130 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2019/20 forecast with higher soybean meal disappearance partly offset by lower soybean meal exports. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 2.050 billion bushels, up 375 million from the revised forecast for 2019/20. With higher global soybean import demand for 2020/21 led by expected gains for China, U.S. export share is expected to rise to 34 percent from the 2019/20 record low of 30 percent. U.S. ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 405 million bushels, down 175 million from the revised 2019/20 forecast. The 2020/21 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $8.20 per bushel, down 30 cents from 2019/20. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $290 per short ton, down $10.00 from 2019/20. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 29.0 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents from 2019/20.

The global oilseed outlook for 2020/21 includes larger supplies with lower beginning stocks offset by record production; however, ending stocks are expected to decline modestly with rising use. Global oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at a record from 2019/20 mainly on higher soybean production. Global soybean production is forecast up 159 million bushels to 13.331 billion, with Brazil’s crop rising 257 million bushels to 4.813 billion, Argentina’s crop is up 92 million bushels to 1.966 billion, and U.S. production rising from last year’s decline. Partly offsetting are smaller soybean crops projected for China and Ukraine.

Global protein meal consumption outside of China is projected to increase 2 percent in 2020/21, down from the prior 5-year average of 3 percent due to the slowing global economy. Protein meal consumption in China at 6 percent is stronger than the prior few years, however, as China recovers from the August 2018 outbreak of African Swine Fever. With higher protein meal demand, soybean exports are expected to increase 294 million bushels to 5.949 billion. China accounts for most of the increase in shipments with imports rising 147 million bushels to 3.527 billion. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 3.616 million bushels, down 70 million from 2019/20. Lower year-over-year U.S. stocks offset higher stocks in China, Brazil, and Argentina.

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

2019/20 Projected

April 2019/20 Est May

2019/20 Change From

Previous Month

2020/21 Projected

May

Change 2019/20 to 20/21

Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield Planted (Million) 83.5 90.2 89.2 76.1 76.1 0.0 83.5 7.4 Harvested (Million) 82.7 89.5 87.6 75 75 0.0 82.8 7.8 U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) 51.9 49.3 50.6 47.4 47.4 0.0 49.8 2.4

Supply (Million Bushels) Beg. Stocks 197 302 438 909 909 0 580 -329 Production 4,296 4,412 4,428 3,558 3,557 -1 4125 568 Imports 22 22 14 15 15 0 15 0 Total Supply 4,516 4,735 4,880 4,482 4,481 -1 4720 239

Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) Crushing 1,901 2,055 2,092 2,125 2,125 0 2130 5 Exports 2,166 2,134 1,748 1,775 1,675 -100 2050 375 Seed and Residual 147 109 131 102 101 -1 135 34 Total Use 4,214 4,297 3,971 4,002 3,901 -101 4315 414 U.S. Ending Stocks 302 438 909 480 580 100 405 -175 Foreign Stocks 3,213 3,200 3,225 3,211 3,104 -107 3210 106

Price and Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Average Season Price ($/Bu) $9.47 $9.33 $8.48 $8.65 $8.50 -$0.15 $8.20 -$0.30

U.S. Stocks/Use 7.17% 10.19% 22.89% 11.99% 14.87% 2.87% 9.39% -5.48% Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2020

World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2020/2021 Current Year Country / Region

Beginning Stocks Production Imports

Domestic Crush

Domestic Total Exports

Ending Stocks

World 3,684 13,329 5,806 11,493 13,255 5,950 3,615 United States 580 4,125 15 2,130 2,265 2,050 405 Total Foreign 3,104 9,204 5,792 9,363 10,990 3,900 3,210 Argentina 992 1,966 132 1,580 1,845 239 1,007 Brazil 945 4,813 6 1,653 1,751 3,050 964 Paraguay 18 377 0 140 151 231 13 China 927 643 3,527 3,417 4,093 4 1,001 E.U. 60 96 547 577 638 7 58 S.E. Asia 28 22 328 144 348 1 29 Mexico 6 15 224 235 238 0 7 ROW 128 1,273 1,026 1,617 1,927 368 132

World Soybean Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current (2020/21)-Previous (2019/20) Year

Country / Region

Beginning Stocks Production Imports

Domestic Crush

Domestic Total Exports

Ending Stocks

World -387 907 241 366 453 383 -76 United States -329 567 - 5 37 275 -75 Total Foreign -58 340 241 361 415 108 -1 Argentina -69 55 -11 51 55 -62 -18 Brazil -175 239 - 28 28 165 -129 Paraguay - 13 - -4 4 15 -7 China 212 -22 257 257 283 -1 165 E.U. -3 - -7 -7 -7 -2 -1 S.E. Asia 3 -1 -7 -4 - - -5 Mexico -1 6 4 7 8 - 1 ROW -26 51 6 32 45 -6 -8


Wheat Futures Market Reaction: July 2020 wheat futures closed down 2 ¾ cents at $5.14 ½ with a trading range for the day of $5.07 ¾ to $5.18 ¼. September 2020 wheat futures closed down 3 ¼ cents at $5.17 ½ with a trading range for the day of $5.11 ¾ to $5.21 ¾. Wheat prices held up reasonably well at the start of the COVID-19 economic slowdown, however given the record global stocks and initial stockpiling of wheat by importing countries the prospects for price declines are very likely moving forward. USDA Summary: The initial outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, decreased domestic use, lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are decreased by 121 million bushels from 2019/20 on lower carry-in stocks and smaller production. The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866 million bushels, down 3 percent from last year on lower yields offsetting higher harvested acreage. The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from last year. The first 2020 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,255 million bushels is down 4 percent from 2019, on lower Hard Red Winter and White Winter production. Total 2020/21 domestic use is projected down nearly 3 percent on reduced feed and residual use as record-large 2020/21 corn supplies are expected to displace wheat for feeding. Higher food use is partially offsetting as 2020/21 is projected up 2 million bushels to 964 million, up from a revised 2019/20 estimate of 962 million, which was raised 7 million this month. The NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued on May 1, indicated an unusually large volume of wheat was ground for flour in the first quarter of 2020. Exports for 2020/21 are projected at 950 million bushels, down 20 million from the revised 2019/20 exports. Greater global 2020/21 export competition is expected for the United States with several major exporters projected having larger supplies. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are 69 million bushels lower than last year at 909 million. The projected season-average farm price is $4.60 per bushel, unchanged from last year as the outlook for low U.S. corn prices is expected to restrain 2020/21 U.S. wheat prices.

The initial outlook for 2020/21 international wheat is for larger supplies, increased trade, greater consumption, and higher ending stocks. Foreign supplies are projected to increase 852 million bushels to 36.097 billion as several major exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Russia) are projected to have higher production for 2020/21. Australia is projected with the largest increase from last year to 882 million bushels, up 323 million as it recovers from a multi-year drought. Conversely, the EU is projected to decline nearly 441 million bushels to 5.254 billion on lower harvested area and yields. Ukraine production is also projected lower at 1.029 billion bushels, but this would still be the second-largest production on record.

Projected 2020/21 global trade is 169 million bushels, or more than 2 percent higher, at a record-high 6.908 billion on greater exportable supplies. Imports are projected to rise, primarily on increased demand by China, Algeria, Morocco, the EU, Iraq, and Uzbekistan. Russia is projected as the 2020/21 leading world wheat exporter at 1.286 billion bushels with Argentina, Australia, and Canada also projected higher while the EU, Ukraine, and United States are lower.

Projected 2020/21 world consumption is increased 180 million bushels to a record-large 27.686 billion as higher food, seed, and industrial use more than offsets reduced feed use on greater global corn supplies. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks increased 5 percent to a record-large 11.394 billion bushels with China accounting for 52 percent of the total.

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

2019/20 Projected

April 2019/20

Est. May

2019/20 Change From

Previous Month

2020/21 Projected

May

Change 2019/20

to 2020/21

Planted and Harvested Acres & Yield Planted (Million) 50.1 46.1 47.8 45.2 45.2 0 44.7 -0.5 Harvested (Million) 43.8 37.6 39.6 37.2 37.2 0 37.7 0.5 U.S. Avg. Yield (Bu/Acre) 52.7 46.4 47.6 51.7 51.7 0 49.5 -2.2

Supply (Million Bushels) Beg. Stocks 976 1,181 1,099 1,080 1,080 0 978 -102 Production 2,309 1,741 1,885 1,920 1,920 0 1,866 -54 Imports 118 158 135 105 105 0 140 35 Total Supply 3,402 3,080 3,119 3,105 3,105 0 2,984 -121

Use & Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) Food 949 964 955 955 962 7 964 2 Seed 61 63 59 60 60 0 61 1 Feed 160 47 90 135 135 0 100 -35 Exports 1,051 906 936 985 970 -15 950 -20 Total Use 2,222 1,981 2,039 2,135 2,127 -8 2,075 -52 U.S. Ending Stocks 1,181 1,099 1,080 970 978 8 909 -69 Foreign Stocks 8,457 9,325 9,185 9,788 9,866 78 10,486 620

Price and Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Avg. Season Price ($/Bu) $3.89 $4.72 $5.16 $4.60 $4.60 $0.00 $4.60 $0.00

U.S. Stocks/Use 53.15% 55.48% 52.97% 45.43% 45.98% 0.5% 43.8% -2.2% Source: USDA-WASDE May 12, 2020

World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels) 2020/21 Current Year



Feed Domestic


World 10,844 28,237 6,718 5,051 27,686 6,907 11,395 United States 978 1,866 140 100 1,125 950 909 Total Foreign 9,866 26,371 6,578 4,951 26,561 5,957 10,486 Argentina 53 772 0 2 228 533 64 Australia 136 882 7 147 277 551 197 Canada 204 1,249 17 169 360 900 209 E.U. 491 5,254 202 1,856 4,420 1,047 480 Russia 304 2,829 18 643 1,488 1,286 378 Ukraine 45 1,029 3 92 323 698 55 Bangladesh 65 46 243 11 276 0 78 Brazil 33 202 261 18 445 22 30 China 5,525 4,960 220 735 4,777 37 5,892 Japan 45 32 206 22 230 10 43 N. Africa 505 640 1,091 72 1,732 36 468 Nigeria 7 2 187 2 175 15 7 Sel. Mideast 439 821 624 126 1,425 25 435 S.E. Asia 198 0 968 259 915 39 212 India 882 3,785 1 220 3,638 37 993 Kazakhstan 42 496 4 55 231 261 49 ROW 892 3,371 2,525 523 5,621 460 895

World Wheat Supply and Use (Million Bushels): Current (2020/21)- Previous Year (2019/20)



Feed Domestic


World 625 148 96 -249 136 194 637 United States -102 -54 35 -35 -25 -35 -61 Total Foreign 728 202 61 -215 162 228 698 Argentina -11 55 - - 2 37 6 Australia -46 323 -13 -44 -42 250 57 Canada -18 61 -2 -11 -4 55 -11 E.U. 105 -404 26 -129 -191 -184 101 Russia 17 125 1 18 18 55 69 Ukraine -13 -43 - -11 -11 -55 10 Bangladesh 18 2 4 - 7 - 17 Brazil -6 11 -4 - - 4 -2 China 389 52 73 37 147 - 367 Japan 6 -3 - - - - 3 N. Africa -63 -36 90 -11 14 - -23 Nigeria - - - - - - - Sel. Mideast 7 -12 7 -4 5 -5 2 S.E. Asia -2 - -24 -29 -29 2 1 India 258 -22 - - 106 18 111 Kazakhstan -20 75 -9 -4 -4 40 9 ROW 107 19 -89 -27 143 11 -20


2020 Estimated Returns - Non-Irrigated

The profitability outlook has been updated after the release of the May 2020, USDA WASDE report. For the Table below, non- irrigated yields were estimated as the 5-year Tennessee state average: 165 bushels per acre for corn, 47 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, 1,072 pounds per acre cotton, and 69 bushels per acre for wheat. Prices used for grain sales are based on 2020 new crop cash bids as reported by the USDA AMS Market report dated May 12, 2020 for Tennessee country grain elevators. The price of $0.58 per lb. of cotton is based on a cotton loan price of $0.52, an assumed $0.03 cotton equity, and a gin rebate of $0.03. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, MFP etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2020 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: Cotton - $ 112, Soybeans - $41, Corn - $142 (includes 180 units of N), and Wheat/Soybeans - $95. These cost reflect a slight increase from 2019 to 2020 along with other nutrients where warranted. Land cost was estimated as a share arrangement: 25% of gross revenue less 25% of the crop insurance premium. Additional details on expenses can be found in the 2020 UT Crop Budgets.

Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses all crops are projected to have positive returns over variable expenses and land costs, but negative net returns over variable, land, and fixed costs. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved (or positive) net return over all costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist - Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm.

Cotton Soybeans Corn Wheat/Soybeans Yield 1072 lbs. 47 bu. 165 bu. 69 bu./35 bu.

Price (as of 5/12/2020) $0.58 lb. $8.46 bu. $3.15 bu. $5.16 bu./$8.46

Revenue $622 $397 $519 $652 Variable Expenses $470 $245 $384 $455

Returns Over Variable $152 $152 $135 $197

Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25% crop

insurance) $153 $98 $127 $160

Returns Over Variable and Land

Costs ($1) $55 $8 $37

Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and

Management Labor) $182 $118 $116 $114

Returns Over Specified Costs ($183) ($63) ($108) ($77)

Breakeven Price at Average Yield and

Specified Cost $0.81 $10.25 $4.02 $6.15/$9.60

2020 Estimated Returns - Irrigated

For the table below, irrigated yields were estimated as: 225 bushels per acre for corn, 65 bushels per acre for full-season soybeans, and 1,200 pounds per acre cotton. Prices used for grain sales are based on 2020 new crop cash bids as reported by the USDA AMS Market report dated May 12, 2020 for Tennessee country grain elevators. The price of $0.58 per lb. of cotton is based on a cotton loan price of $0.52, an assumed $0.03 cotton equity, and a gin rebate of $0.03. Revenue estimates do not consider any government payments (crop insurance, ARC or PLC, MFP etc.). Costs shown below are based on the 2020 UT Extension Row Crop budgets with adjustments made where warranted. For reference, in variable expenses below, fertilizer expense per acre is estimated as follows: cotton - $ 116/acre, soybeans - $51/acre, corn - $181/acre. These cost reflect a slight increase from 2019 to 2020 along with other nutrients where warranted. Land cost was estimated at 25% of gross revenue less 25% of the crop insurance premium. Irrigation fixed costs and energy costs will vary greatly among producers and systems. These projections include: variable expenses and energy costs for irrigation of $49 per acre for corn, $42 per acre for cotton, and $32 per acre for soybeans. Fixed irrigation costs of $96 per acre for irrigation equipment are used in the table below. A management expense of $36 per acre is included in Fixed Costs – Capital Recovery and Management Labor. This is $18 above the dryland crop management labor expense. Based on projected yields, prices, and expenses all crops are projected to have positive returns over variable expenses and land costs except cotton. A negative net return over variable, land, and fixed costs is projected for all four crop mixes at today’s current new crop price level. Producers with higher yields or lower cost structures may attain improved (or positive) net return over all costs. The table below should be used as a guide as yields, prices, and expenses will vary among producers and locations. Expenses will vary among producers and production systems. Please contact your local County Extension office or Area Specialist - Farm Management for assistance in developing a budget or financial plan for your farm. A whole farm financial plan can be completed for you for free by your Area Farm Management Specialist.

Cotton Soybeans Corn Wheat/Soybeans Yield 1200 lbs. 65 bu. 225 bu. 68 bu./45 bu.

Price (as of 5/12/2020) $0.58 lb. $8.46 bu. $3.15 bu. $5.16 bu./$8.46

Revenue $696 $550 $708 $731 Variable

Expenses(includes energy cost)

$476 $288 $475 $449

Fixed Irrigation Costs per Acre $96 $96 $96 $86

Returns Over Variable & Fixed IR

Costs $124 $166 $137 $196

Land Costs (25% of Revenue-25% crop

insurance-25% fixed irrigation costs)

$147 $112 $150 $155

Returns Over Variable, IR Fixed

Cost and Land Costs ($23) $54 ($13) $42

Fixed Costs (Capital Recovery and

Management Labor) $119 $120 $137 $216

Returns Over Specified Costs ($142) ($66) ($150) ($174)

Breakeven Price at Average Yield and

Specified Cost $0.74 $9.80 $4.04 $7.05/$10.75

may 12, 2020 - usda world supply and demand estimates€¦ · u.s. 2020/21 corn exports are...

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