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Dr. ing. Marco Lisi

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Summary • Over the past three decades, services have become the largest

part of the industrialized world economy • Service systems, i.e. systems meant to deliver value-added

services are network centric and computational systems • In these large and complex systems, requirements related to

operations, in addition to technical ones, assume relevance: guaranteed quality of service (QoS), reliability, security, maintainability and flexibility

• The definition of cost drivers and effective cost models for systems of systems is a new and interesting challenge

• Accurate trade-off's need to be performed to optimize the Total Cost of Ownership, in terms of "capex" and "opex" components.

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Presentation Outline • The Dawn of a Service Economy • Network-Centric Systems for Value-Added Services • What is a System of Systems? • Systems of Systems Complexity Factors • Systems of Systems Cost Model • Systems of Systems and Information Security • Systems of Systems CAPEX and OPEX Cost Factors • Systems of Systems Total Cost of Ownership Trade-off’s • Conclusion

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The Dawn of a Service Economy • Over the past three decades, services have become the largest

part of most industrialized nations’ economies • Service systems, that is systems meant to deliver value-added

services (capability-based rather than platform-based) are network centric and computational systems

• A knowledge centric society (and economy) leads to a network centric society (and economy). The main target of net-centric society is a seamless networking in the information domain

• Emerging scenario: integration of all communications networks (wireless nets, satellites, microwave and landline links) as well as a multi-layer convergence of networks, services and terminals

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Network-Centric Systems for Value-Added Services

• In today’s world the demand for safety, security and value-added services is increasing at a very fast pace

• This implies the development of complex, integrated, highly networked systems or “systems of systems”

• The provision of value-added services is increasingly derived from information easily accessed and being shared at high speed by highly networked systems

• The network-centric paradigm, originally conceived in a warfare environment, is quickly becoming applicable to future complex systems for the provision of value-added services.

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From Network-Centric Warfare Systems …

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…To Network-Centric “Welfare” Systems

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Network-Centric Architectures in Telecommunications

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What is a “System of Systems”? • A “system of systems” is the aggregation of normally

independent systems to achieve an emergent behaviour that is not evident in the individual systems (Nota Bene: emergent phenomena are typical of complex systems)

• The “systems of systems” paradigm: “the ensemble is greater than the sum of its parts”

• Systems of systems are highly networked or “network-centric” • Systems of systems are “open” (no clear boundaries) • Systems of systems are developed and deployed worldwide.

Extensive logistics and maintenance support capabilities are therefore required.

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Definitions of “System of Systems” • “… an integrated force package of interoperable systems acting

as a single system to achieve a mission capability. Typical characteristics include a high degree of collaboration and coordination, flexible addition or removal of component systems, and a net-centric architecture…” [Naval “Systems of Systems” Systems Engineering Guidebook, 2005]

• “Systems of systems exist when there is a presence of a majority of the following five characteristics: operational and managerial independence, geographical distribution, emergent behavior, and evolutionary development.” [Sage and Cuppan 2001]

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Network Centric System of Systems Architecture

System BSystem B

System A

System CSystem BSoS Network

System BSystem B

System A

System CSystem BSoS Network

System BSystem B

System A

System CSystem BSoS Network

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Network Complexity in Systems of Systems

• In a network constituted of 2 elements, A and B, there is one bi-directional link to be considered, with its associated interface:

AB • In a 3 elements network-centric system, links (and interfaces)

become 3: AB AC BC

• More generally, the number of links and associated interfaces to be considered in a network-centric system constituted of N elements (or a “system of systems” with N individual systems) is:

(N×(N-1))÷2 • (e.g.: a system with 10 elements implies 45 network

connections to be integrated and verified).

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Metcalfe’s Law (in reverse)

Robert Metcalfe began talking about his law around 1980, and George Gilder dubbed it a law in "Metcalfe's Law and Legacy," Forbes ASAP, 13 September 1993.

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Complexity Grows Faster than Scope • In a system constituted of 2 elements, there are 3 “objects”

(operational states) to be considered: the 2 elements plus their interaction

A B AB • In a 3 elements system, the objects to be considered become 7:

A B C AB AC BC ABC • More generally, the number of “objects” to be considered in a

system constituted of N elements (or a “system of systems” with N individual systems) is:

2N - 1 • (e.g.: a system with 10 elements implies 1023 “objects” to be

analized and verified)

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Complexity vs. Number of System Components

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How Much Does Complexity Cost? Effort to completion

0200000400000600000800000

1000000120000014000001600000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Number of Requirements

Effo

rt (m

an-h

ours

)

ModelObserved

The project cost in terms of man-hours is proportional to the cube of the number of requirements

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System of Systems Cost Model

CostSoS = CostSE&Integration+

+[Σ (individual systems costs) + (network cost)] × × Π (complexity factors)

Nota Bene: while for individual systems costs and for network cost presently available cost estimating tools may suffice, there is a dramatic lack of even semi-qualitative rules for estimating the complexity factors of a system of systems.

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Non-Recurring (CAPEX) Cost Factors in Systems of Systems

Factors affecting the non-recurring costs of systems of systems (mainly the integration effort) are: Number of stakeholder organizations involved Number of domains involved (business functions and solution

technology) Number and variegation of classified domains Number of geographical sites Number of users Number of unique architectural components Number of physical components Level of security certification (if any) required.

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Operating (OPEX) Cost Factors in Systems of Systems

Factors affecting the operating costs of systems of systems are: Cost of training Costs associated with failure or outage (planned or unplanned) Costs of safety Cost of disaster preparedness and recovery Real estate occupation Energy Maintenance (including spare parts inventory) Upgrading due to obsolescence of h/w and s/w Communications fees (e.g. lease line expenses) Quality assurance Decommissioning.

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Conclusion

• The definition of cost drivers, CER’s and of an effective cost model for network-centric systems and systems of systems is an interesting and urgent task

• Given the service-oriented nature of systems of systems, non-functional and operational requirements assume predominant importance. Their impacts on cost and schedule need to be carefully analyzed and modeled

• Customers are increasingly emphasizing the need for a reduced total cost of ownership of A&D systems

• “Best practices” of systems architecting and engineering must be applied to achieve the total cost of ownership reduction goal.

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Estimating Cost of SoS’s: Mission Impossible?