Mass Mass KillingKilling and the and the Oases of HumanityOases of Humanity

UnderstandingUnderstanding Rwandan Genocide and Rwandan Genocide and

Resistance Through Resistance Through

TimeTime and S p a c e and S p a c e

Christian Christian DavenportDavenport

““I never thought that I studied genocide”:I never thought that I studied genocide”:

Human Rights Violations/State Human Rights Violations/State Repression throughout the worldRepression throughout the world

Dissident ActivityDissident Activity

Political DemocracyPolitical Democracy

““Protest Policing” in the United States Protest Policing” in the United States

Black Panther Party-US governmentBlack Panther Party-US government Police and Court BehaviorPolice and Court Behavior

Republic of New Africa-US governmentRepublic of New Africa-US government Overt and Covert State ActivityOvert and Covert State Activity

Do You Want to go to Do You Want to go to Rwanda?Rwanda?

This led me to literature on genocide This led me to literature on genocide and the Rwandan case in particularand the Rwandan case in particular

Genocide is the (attempted) physical Genocide is the (attempted) physical elimination of a group with a cohesive elimination of a group with a cohesive non-political identity and where the non-political identity and where the perpetrators were members of or perpetrators were members of or affiliated with the stateaffiliated with the state

Once immersed in this literature, I could Once immersed in this literature, I could not believe that I had not read it beforenot believe that I had not read it before

According to Rummel (1994, 3):According to Rummel (1994, 3):

merely fifteen states “wiped out merely fifteen states “wiped out over 151 over 151 million people, almost four million people, almost four times the times the almost 38,500,000 battle almost 38,500,000 battle dead from all dead from all this century’s this century’s international and civil wars international and civil wars up to up to 1987”1987”

Despite the importance of the topic, there Despite the importance of the topic, there are few rigorous investigations of are few rigorous investigations of genocide: genocide:

In fact, only seven studies exist: Fein In fact, only seven studies exist: Fein (1979; 1993), Rummel (1994; 1997), (1979; 1993), Rummel (1994; 1997), Krain (1997), Harff (2003), and Valentino, Krain (1997), Harff (2003), and Valentino, Huth and Balch-Lindsay (2003/4)Huth and Balch-Lindsay (2003/4)

In all of this work, a structuralist In all of this work, a structuralist framework is applied and (using the framework is applied and (using the nation-year as the unit of analysis) nation-year as the unit of analysis) individuals try to ascertain why and when individuals try to ascertain why and when genocide takes place in some countries genocide takes place in some countries but not in others but not in others

The answers to this question have been The answers to this question have been fairly straightforward and uncontroversial fairly straightforward and uncontroversial

For example, across most of the For example, across most of the investigations, researchers have found investigations, researchers have found that the likelihood of a genocide is that the likelihood of a genocide is increased under increased under authoritarianism authoritarianism and and during domestic “during domestic “crisescrises””

crises include external and internal crises include external and internal guerilla threat (Valentino et al. 2003/4), guerilla threat (Valentino et al. 2003/4), regime change (Harff 2003), and civil regime change (Harff 2003), and civil war (Fein 1993, Krain 1997)war (Fein 1993, Krain 1997)

Additionally, the basic facts about the Additionally, the basic facts about the Rwandan genocide seemed clear enough:Rwandan genocide seemed clear enough:

In 1994, the genocide took place over In 1994, the genocide took place over one hundred days - from April to July - one hundred days - from April to July - when between 500,000 and 1,000,000 when between 500,000 and 1,000,000 people (largely Tutsi) were murdered people (largely Tutsi) were murdered with untold numbers suffering from with untold numbers suffering from other offenses (e.g., rape, torture, other offenses (e.g., rape, torture, intimidation)intimidation)

Then I went to

Initially, the literature appeared on track:Initially, the literature appeared on track:

As of 1994, the regime was clearly As of 1994, the regime was clearly autocraticautocratic – –

the country was divided into ten the country was divided into ten prefecturesprefectures, 143 , 143 communescommunes (of about (of about 30,000 persons). Each commune 30,000 persons). Each commune comprised eight comprised eight collinescollines (hills), with (hills), with each hill divided into each hill divided into secteurssecteurs, and , and each sector into two each sector into two cellulescellules (cells).” (cells).” Appointed leaders governed each Appointed leaders governed each level (Mamdani 2001, 144)level (Mamdani 2001, 144)

There was a situation of “crisis”:There was a situation of “crisis”: an ongoing an ongoing civil warcivil war with the Rwandan with the Rwandan

Patriotic Front (since 1990)Patriotic Front (since 1990)

an attempt at an attempt at democratizationdemocratization which which prompted a countermovement by “Hutu prompted a countermovement by “Hutu Power” (members of a Parmehutu Power” (members of a Parmehutu faction and the Interahamwe militia faction and the Interahamwe militia among others)among others)

There was an There was an underdeveloped economyunderdeveloped economy predominantly subsistence agriculturepredominantly subsistence agriculture

Additional Factors Arose:Additional Factors Arose:

Belgians and Germans were accused of Belgians and Germans were accused of establishing and “fanning” the flames of establishing and “fanning” the flames of ethnic hatredethnic hatred (framing and history) (framing and history)

Hate Radio was highlighted as an Hate Radio was highlighted as an instrument of instrument of propagandapropaganda (framing) (framing)

Extensive Extensive militiamilitia organization was used organization was used throughout society (resource throughout society (resource mobilization)mobilization)

Puzzling InformationPuzzling Information

Discussion of the “Preventable” Genocide:Discussion of the “Preventable” Genocide: ““If I had had (5,000 soldiers) in Rwanda, there would If I had had (5,000 soldiers) in Rwanda, there would

be hundreds of thousands of lives spared today” be hundreds of thousands of lives spared today”

– – Major General Romeo DallaireMajor General Romeo Dallaire

Discussion of the necessity for “Truth and Discussion of the necessity for “Truth and Reconciliation” in Rwanda and the uniformity of Reconciliation” in Rwanda and the uniformity of the Rwandan effort (called Gacaca)the Rwandan effort (called Gacaca)

Both presumed understanding of Both presumed understanding of

what occurred and made one reflect about what occurred and made one reflect about

““how” genocide occurred and not “why”how” genocide occurred and not “why”

But exactly what took place and how? But exactly what took place and how?

Numerous points of agreement: large-Numerous points of agreement: large-scale violence occurred (engineered by scale violence occurred (engineered by the incumbent regime), directed the incumbent regime), directed against: against:

moderate Hutu (Itsembasemba – the moderate Hutu (Itsembasemba – the genocide of those opposed to genocide of those opposed to genocide)genocide)

Tutsi (Itsembabwoko – genocide of Tutsi (Itsembabwoko – genocide of those targeted for elimination)those targeted for elimination)

Opinions differed, however, regarding Opinions differed, however, regarding “how”:“how”:

V1 - Violence was enacted by most V1 - Violence was enacted by most Hutu, everywhere and all the time – Hutu, everywhere and all the time – Rwanda’s Willing Executioners Rwanda’s Willing Executioners HypothesisHypothesis (Mamdani 2001, 218-115 ) (Mamdani 2001, 218-115 )

V2 - Violence was enacted by large V2 - Violence was enacted by large numbers of Hutu and it moved over numbers of Hutu and it moved over Rwanda in accordance to civil war Rwanda in accordance to civil war penetration – penetration – The Wave of Violence The Wave of Violence HypothesisHypothesis (Kuperman 2001) (Kuperman 2001)

V3 - Violence was initially enacted by V3 - Violence was initially enacted by bands of Hutu militia in Kigali, later bands of Hutu militia in Kigali, later spreading to the larger population and spreading to the larger population and away from the central government away from the central government stronghold – stronghold – The Radiation HypothesisThe Radiation Hypothesis (Human Rights Watch 1999, 201)(Human Rights Watch 1999, 201)

V4 - Violence was initially enacted by V4 - Violence was initially enacted by militia within “strategic” locations and militia within “strategic” locations and then moved inward – then moved inward – The Inversion The Inversion HypothesisHypothesis (African Rights 1995, xxi- (African Rights 1995, xxi-xxiii)xxiii)

Variation calls into question existing Variation calls into question existing research about genocide (redirecting it in research about genocide (redirecting it in the tradition of Tilly, Fein, Kalyvas and the tradition of Tilly, Fein, Kalyvas and Ball toward disaggregation across events) Ball toward disaggregation across events)

It also calls into question claims about the It also calls into question claims about the preventability of the events and the preventability of the events and the appropriateness of Gacacaappropriateness of Gacaca

For exampleFor example::

Rwanda’s Willing Executioners Hypothesis (V1):Rwanda’s Willing Executioners Hypothesis (V1):

fits the fits the structuraliststructuralist orientation of the orientation of the literature and literature and aggregateaggregate data analysis, but it data analysis, but it renders the preventability argument suspectrenders the preventability argument suspect

The Wave of Violence Hypothesis (V2) as well The Wave of Violence Hypothesis (V2) as well as Radiation and Inversion Hypotheses (V3 and as Radiation and Inversion Hypotheses (V3 and V4):V4):

suggest that genocide was suggest that genocide was notnot all all encompassingencompassing, “oases of humanity” existed , “oases of humanity” existed (where little or no violence occurred), (where little or no violence occurred), aggregation was problematic, but that the aggregation was problematic, but that the claim of preventability was plausibleclaim of preventability was plausible

The Case Presents Numerous ChallengesThe Case Presents Numerous Challenges

First, First, the Rwandan civil war did not appear to the Rwandan civil war did not appear to involve all parts of the country involve all parts of the country – combat was – combat was in North and Central part of Rwandain North and Central part of Rwanda

Relevance: The influence of civil war on Relevance: The influence of civil war on genocidal activity (occurrence, frequency and genocidal activity (occurrence, frequency and severity of events) should thus vary across severity of events) should thus vary across time and spacetime and space

H1 - As the whole country was not involved with H1 - As the whole country was not involved with civil war, wherever combat was moving we should civil war, wherever combat was moving we should see genocidesee genocide

H1.1 - Oases are a function of distance from civil H1.1 - Oases are a function of distance from civil warwar

Second, Second, the Rwandan government did not the Rwandan government did not appear to evenly penetrate the countryappear to evenly penetrate the country

Relevance: The influence of authoritarianism Relevance: The influence of authoritarianism on genocidal activity should vary across on genocidal activity should vary across spacespace

H2 - As the whole country was not equally H2 - As the whole country was not equally well integrated into the polity, closeness to well integrated into the polity, closeness to Kigali, cities and roads should increase Kigali, cities and roads should increase genocide-related activitygenocide-related activity

H2.1 - Oases are a function of distance H2.1 - Oases are a function of distance from the statefrom the state

The influence of economic development on The influence of economic development on genocidal activity should vary across Rwanda genocidal activity should vary across Rwanda in accordance to exactly what was developedin accordance to exactly what was developed

H3 - collective farm underdevelopment H3 - collective farm underdevelopment likely decreases activity but individual farm likely decreases activity but individual farm underdevelopment likely increases activityunderdevelopment likely increases activity

H3.1 Oases are a function of the difference H3.1 Oases are a function of the difference between the two forms of developmentbetween the two forms of development

Finally, Finally, the extensive qualitative the extensive qualitative literature emphasized “resource literature emphasized “resource mobilization” mobilization” (e.g., Des Forges, (e.g., Des Forges, Gourevitch, Guichaoua, Kimonyo, Gourevitch, Guichaoua, Kimonyo, Mamdani, Newbury, Omaar, and Prunier) Mamdani, Newbury, Omaar, and Prunier) which requires considerationwhich requires consideration

H4: The existence of mobilizing structures H4: The existence of mobilizing structures within specific locales and at specific times within specific locales and at specific times should increase genocide activityshould increase genocide activity

H4.1: Oases are a function of weak H4.1: Oases are a function of weak mobilizing structuresmobilizing structures

www.genodynamics.comwww.genodynamics.com

For the 100-day period, discrete For the 100-day period, discrete events were identified (from each events were identified (from each source) and entered into a database source) and entered into a database collected by cell, secteur, commune collected by cell, secteur, commune and prefecture – and prefecture – partially completedpartially completed

ViolationsViolations (e.g., abductions, (e.g., abductions, beating, rape, torture and killing)beating, rape, torture and killing)

ResistanceResistance (e.g., hiding, helping (e.g., hiding, helping individuals escape and interfering individuals escape and interfering with/hindering violations) with/hindering violations)

action typeaction type

perpetratorperpetrator

name, title/position, size of group, name, title/position, size of group, sex, age, weapon sex, age, weapon

victimvictim

same as perpetratorsame as perpetrator

locationlocation and and datedate

We have also We have also completedcompleted the collection the collection of information regarding of information regarding

employment type employment type

proximity to roads, Kigali and citiesproximity to roads, Kigali and cities

the percentage of population Tutsi, Hutu the percentage of population Tutsi, Hutu and and Twa Twa

birth prefecture birth prefecture

most recently lived prefecture most recently lived prefecture

by commune and/or prefecture by commune and/or prefecture source: Rwandan Census of 1991source: Rwandan Census of 1991

We are We are still collectingstill collecting information on: information on:

crop yields for individual and crop yields for individual and collective farms, collective farms,

pre-1994 Hutu Power mobilization pre-1994 Hutu Power mobilization (electoral and militia-oriented) (electoral and militia-oriented)

locales of police, army and securitylocales of police, army and security

pre-1994 anti-Tutsi violence and pre-1994 anti-Tutsi violence and

by commune and prefecture by commune and prefecture source: Ministries and NGOssource: Ministries and NGOs

Thus far, the genocide related data Thus far, the genocide related data includes information from diverse includes information from diverse government ministries, as well as local government ministries, as well as local and international NGOs: African Rights, and international NGOs: African Rights, Human Rights Watch, MYCS, MINALOC Human Rights Watch, MYCS, MINALOC and IBUKA. and IBUKA.

I will briefly discuss each source, some of I will briefly discuss each source, some of the data collected and then provide an the data collected and then provide an overview of the project.overview of the project.

Our first source is Our first source is African RightsAfrican Rights - a - a regional organization developed to bring regional organization developed to bring truth and justice to the victims of the truth and justice to the victims of the genocide. In their publication, they genocide. In their publication, they attempt to compile a large number of attempt to compile a large number of eyewitness accounts of the genocide eyewitness accounts of the genocide (through interviews in Rwanda, Burundi, (through interviews in Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Kenya and Europe) Tanzania, Kenya and Europe)

From this source, we identify 133,144 From this source, we identify 133,144 deathsdeaths

The second source The second source Human Rights Human Rights WatchWatch is an international NGO dedicated is an international NGO dedicated to monitor human rights violations all to monitor human rights violations all over the world. The purpose of this report over the world. The purpose of this report was to educate people and bolster public was to educate people and bolster public support for the prosecution of those who support for the prosecution of those who participated in the genocide participated in the genocide

Hundreds of interviews took place Hundreds of interviews took place beginning in 1995. Although a summary beginning in 1995. Although a summary figure of 500,000 victims was estimated figure of 500,000 victims was estimated in this book, our coding of the source in this book, our coding of the source yielded information on only 47,121 yielded information on only 47,121 deathsdeaths

The third source comes from a mass The third source comes from a mass grave identification project undertaken by grave identification project undertaken by the the Ministry of Youth, Culture, and Ministry of Youth, Culture, and SportSport with assistance from 3 other with assistance from 3 other ministries. ministries.

This identifies approximately 800,000 This identifies approximately 800,000 deaths. deaths.

Using contacts throughout the country to Using contacts throughout the country to identify all sites of mass killing, these identify all sites of mass killing, these ministries used forensic evidence to ministries used forensic evidence to ascertain the number of victims that ascertain the number of victims that existed in each locale. This was initiated existed in each locale. This was initiated and completed in 1995. and completed in 1995.

The Ministry of Local Administration and The Ministry of Local Administration and Department of Information and Social Department of Information and Social AffairsAffairs developed a report that was based on developed a report that was based on research which took place over a two week research which took place over a two week period in 2000. period in 2000.

The objectives of this project were to: name the The objectives of this project were to: name the victims of the genocide, identify the numbers of victims of the genocide, identify the numbers of victims, and locate areas most affected by the victims, and locate areas most affected by the genocide as a guide for aid allocation.genocide as a guide for aid allocation. Differing Differing from the other compilations, event dates were from the other compilations, event dates were not provided (just summaries for locales) not provided (just summaries for locales)

1,825 enumerators were recruited to carry out 1,825 enumerators were recruited to carry out the survey. This source provides information on the survey. This source provides information on 900,000 deaths 900,000 deaths

Finally, we have Finally, we have IbukaIbuka - a Tutsi - a Tutsi organization of genocide survivors organization of genocide survivors developed to bring truth and justice to developed to bring truth and justice to the survivors. The purpose of the the survivors. The purpose of the “Kibuye Dictionary Project” was to “Kibuye Dictionary Project” was to identify all the victims in this prefecture identify all the victims in this prefecture to assist in prosecution and psychological to assist in prosecution and psychological recovery. recovery.

Ibuka is a highly organized association Ibuka is a highly organized association with members acting as enumerators all with members acting as enumerators all over the country down to the cell level. over the country down to the cell level. Conducting a household by household Conducting a household by household survey, the Kibuye Dictionary identifies survey, the Kibuye Dictionary identifies nearly 51,000 victims.nearly 51,000 victims.

Tim

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Graphs by PrefectureEvent Date

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Current Status of Current Status of GenoGenodynamicsdynamics

Source VariationSource Variation

Micro-FoundationsMicro-Foundations

Prefecture Publication Victims Number of Tutsi Dead Prefect Pop Tutsi Pop Hutu Pop 1992 Census Victims as % of Tutsi Victims as % of pop Tutsi as % of PopKigale-ville Mass Graves 17,564 235,664 39,703 150,550 221,806 44% 7%

Govt census1 98,131 0% 0%Africa Rights 820 2% 0%Human Rights 36 0% 0%

Kigale-rural Mass Graves 180,854 914,034 79,696 822,314 905,632 227% 20%Gov't census 136,359 171% 15%Africa Rights 20,247 25% 2%Human Rights 128 0% 0%

Byumba Mass Graves 0 782,427 11,639 761,968 775,935 0% 0%Govt census 6,550 56% 1%Africa Rights 26 0% 0%

Kibungo Mass Graves 71,383 652,941 49,966 596,999 648,912 143% 11%Govt census 82,431 165% 13%Africa Rights 12,126 24% 2%Human Rights 3,000 6% 0%

Butare Mass Graves 378,472 764,448 130,419 618,172 753,868 290% 50%Govt census 206,871 159% 27%Africa Rights 2,005 2% 0%Human Rights 33,568 26% 4%

Gitarama Mass Graves 57,946 851,451 78,019 764,920 848,027 74% 7%Govt census 113,261 145% 13%Africa Rights 3,500 4% 0%Human Rights 83 0% 0%

Gikongoro Mass Graves 20,900 467,332 59,624 401,998 465,814 35% 4%Govt census 96,372 162% 21%Africa Rights 26,006 44% 6%Human Rights 3,506 6% 1%

Ruhengeri Mass Graves 3,453 769,297 3,734 760,661 766,795 92% 0%Govt census 11,925 319% 2%

Gisenyi Mass Graves 9,840 734,658 21,228 708,572 731,996 46% 1%Govt census 35,130 165% 5%Africa Rights 3,394 16% 0%Human Rights 771 4% 0%

Kibuye Mass Graves 88,315 470,643 69,485 398,131 469,494 127% 19%Govt census 72,688 105% 15%Ibuka 50,878 73% 11%Africa Rights 57,212 82% 12%Human Rights 6,000 9% 1%

Cyangugu Mass Graves 5,556 514,656 57,914 498,238 551,565 10% 1%Gov't 55,271 95% 11%Africa Rights 27,953 48% 5%Human Rights 3 0% 0%

Total Mass Graves 834,283 7,157,551 601,427 6,482,523 7,139,844 139% 12% 8.40%Govt census 914,989 855,148 152% 13%Africa Rights 133,144 22% 2%Human Rights 47,121 8% 1%Human Rights4 500,000 350,000 5 83% 7%

1. The Rwanda government conducted a new genocide victims census from July 17-27, 2000. The figures draw on that survey.2. If this figure is correct, the government survey implies 851,000 Tutsi dead, some 200,000 more than believed to reside in Rwanda at the time of the mass killings.3. William Selzter, a demographer, puts the 1994 Tutsi population at 647,000. De Forge, pg 15.4. De Forge estimates that roughly 500,000 died in the genocide. Leave None, pg 16.5. De Forge estimates that 150,000 Tutsi survived. Leave None, pg 24.

Table 1. The Demography of the 1994 Rwandan Mass killings

Assessing Source VariationAssessing Source VariationExplainExplain variation (Lustick) – Following variation (Lustick) – Following The The Rashomon Effect in the Social SciencesRashomon Effect in the Social Sciences

ObtainObtain raw data for country census from raw data for country census from Ministry of Local Affairs (not likely) and Ministry of Local Affairs (not likely) and perpetrator database from Public perpetrator database from Public Prosecutor’s office (likely)Prosecutor’s office (likely)

CompareCompare country-wide database against country-wide database against IBUKA and PHR Kibuye studies as well as IBUKA and PHR Kibuye studies as well as survey/testimony datasurvey/testimony data

ConductConduct our own country census utilizing our own country census utilizing IBUKA network (navigating through IBUKA network (navigating through human subjects and government human subjects and government cooptation of IBUKA)cooptation of IBUKA)

CollectCollect information from other information from other organizations for missed events (rape: organizations for missed events (rape: Avega)Avega)

More thoroughly More thoroughly investigateinvestigate ethnic ethnic identification (self vs. government identification (self vs. government affixed)affixed)

Micro-Foundations Micro-Foundations individuals as well as groups in Rwanda individuals as well as groups in Rwanda made choice to join killers, hide made choice to join killers, hide themselves, hide others, resist killers or themselves, hide others, resist killers or run away – this needs explicit run away – this needs explicit investigationinvestigation

Empirical question arises regarding Empirical question arises regarding behavior of groups as a function of size behavior of groups as a function of size (troubling film sequences)(troubling film sequences)

Micro-Macro link not really clear:Micro-Macro link not really clear: Maryland Geography (Catherine Dibble)Maryland Geography (Catherine Dibble) PS-I/Political Science-Identity (Ian Lustick) PS-I/Political Science-Identity (Ian Lustick) Brookings Institution (Robert Axtell)Brookings Institution (Robert Axtell)

SummarySummary

Although still underway, the research has Although still underway, the research has already challenged existing literature and policy already challenged existing literature and policy in different ways in different ways It prompts a call for disaggregation in analyses It prompts a call for disaggregation in analyses of large-scale conflict and integration of diverse of large-scale conflict and integration of diverse parts of domestic conflict literature: social parts of domestic conflict literature: social movement, repression, genocide and civil war – movement, repression, genocide and civil war – returning to the fields origins (e.g., Pitirim returning to the fields origins (e.g., Pitirim Sorokin and Harry Eckstein)Sorokin and Harry Eckstein)Casts doubt on preventability argument Casts doubt on preventability argument (without time and space conditions) and (without time and space conditions) and usefulness of uniform reconciliation effort usefulness of uniform reconciliation effort (same), (same), Also casts doubt on claim of genocide as Also casts doubt on claim of genocide as opposed to politicideopposed to politicide

Relationship to Larger Research Relationship to Larger Research AgendaAgenda

Research extends the Research extends the Radical Information Radical Information ProjectProject – an effort to disaggregate – an effort to disaggregate domestic conflict across levels of analysis domestic conflict across levels of analysis as well as sources as well as sources

Research has initiated Research has initiated Conflict and OrderConflict and Order – a systematic analysis of all forms of – a systematic analysis of all forms of domestic conflict from post World War II domestic conflict from post World War II to the present to the present