1

MASON-DIXON FLORIDA POLL

APRIL 2015

RUBIO EVEN WITH BUSH AMONG STATE GOP VOTERS

ANALYSIS

By: J. Bradford Coker, Managing Director

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.

2015, All Rights Reserved

In the wake of his formal announcement as a candidate for

president, Senator Marco Rubio has leveled the playing field

in Florida with former governor Jeb Bush. Statewide, 31% of

registered Republican voters now say they would vote for Rubio

and 30% would back Bush.

All of the other candidates seeking the nomination in a high

profile manner only managed to register single digit support

Ted Cruz 8%, Ron Paul 7% and Scott Walker 2%. An additional

5% indicated they prefer one of the many other potential

candidates who have kept a lower profile so far. Finally, a

sizeable 17% said they were undecided.

2

With the polls margin for error at 5%, the race is a

statistical tie, but it is relatively clear that Florida will

be a battle among favorite sons. None of the other candidates

are likely to invest much time in the state absent a dramatic

turn of events.

While it is early, there are a few interesting findings. One

being that Rubio now has better favorability numbers among

Florida Republicans than Bush. Rubios favorable/unfavorable

numbers stand at 66%/7%, while Bushs are just 59%/17%.

And although the sub-sample is very small and has a high

margin for error, the role of Hispanic GOP voters will be of

huge importance. With Bush ahead among white Republicans,

Rubios thin lead is the result of his stronger support from

Hispanics. However, Hispanic voters are also more highly

conflicted, with 31% saying they are undecided. This is more

than twice the percentage of undecided white Republicans

(14%).

It is very possible that Rubios surge reflects a temporary

bump from his campaign rollout and that his numbers may slip

some if and when Bush makes his candidacy official too. The

race is on.

3

*** 400 REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS ****

STATEWIDE NAME RECOGNITION

QUESTION: Do you recognize the name ________?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion

of ________?

RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE

Marco Rubio 66% 7% 26% 1%

Jeb Bush 59% 17% 24% -

QUESTION: If the 2016 Florida Republican presidential primary

were held today, would you vote for: (ORDER ROTATED)

STATE WHITE HISP

Marco Rubio 31% 29% 42%

Jeb Bush 30% 32% 20%

Ted Cruz 8% 9% 5%

Rand Paul 7% 8% -

Scott Walker 2% 2% -

One of the other potential candidates 5% 6% 2%

Undecided (NOT READ) 17% 14% 31%

4

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

The Mason-Dixon Florida Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon

Polling & Research, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from April 14

through April 16, 2015. For this section of the poll 400

registered Republican voters were interviewed statewide by

telephone.

Those interviewed on land-lines were selected by the random

variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A

cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an

accurate reflection of the state. Those interviewed on cell

phones were selected from a list of working cell phone numbers.

Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by

statisticians, is no more than 5 percentage points. This means

that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure

would fall within that range if all GOP voters were surveyed.