Mary KiczaDeputy Assistant Administrator forSatellite and Information ServicesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Workshop on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration for Climate Change

National Conference CenterLansdowne, VA

May 16, 2006

Mary KiczaDeputy Assistant Administrator forSatellite and Information ServicesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration

Workshop on Achieving Satellite Instrument Calibration for Climate Change

National Conference CenterLansdowne, VA

May 16, 2006

Keynote Address: NOAA, GEOSS, and Cal/Val

Keynote Address: NOAA, GEOSS, and Cal/Val

NOAA and Its Satellite Program

NOAA’s Mission

• To describe and predict changes in the Earth’s environment.

• To conserve and manage the Nation’s coastal and marine resources to ensure sustainable economic opportunities.

NOAA’s Programs and Goals

NOAA Data and Information are Essential for…

Hazards, Severe Weather, Watches, Warnings

Hazards, Severe Weather, Watches, Warnings

AgricultureAgriculture

TransportationTransportation

DefenseDefense

ClimateClimate

CommerceCommerce

IndustryIndustry

OceanOcean

EnvironmentalMonitoringEnvironmentalMonitoring

Has Observing Instruments On Land, Ocean, Air, And Space

Has Observing Instruments On Land, Ocean, Air, And Space

Land-BasedLand-Based

Air-BasedAir-Based

Ocean-BasedOcean-Based

Space-BasedSpace-Based

Makes Nautical ChartsMakes Nautical Charts

Provides Aerial Surveys and Navigation Response to Survey Channels for DebrisProvides Aerial Surveys and Navigation Response to Survey Channels for Debris

Hurricane Katrina

Monitors the Population of Endangered Species and

Monitors the Population of Endangered Species and

Stellar Seal LionStellar Seal Lion

Provides Support to FAA for Volcanic Ash Alerts

Provides Support to FAA for Volcanic Ash Alerts

NOAA-15 color enhanced image

Localized Changes In Ocean Temperatures (El Niño) Have A Major Impact On Climate And Weather

Localized Changes In Ocean Temperatures (El Niño) Have A Major Impact On Climate And Weather

NOAA’s El Niño Forecast Resulted In Worldwide Agricultural Benefits Of At Least $450 Million

NOAA’s El Niño Forecast Resulted In Worldwide Agricultural Benefits Of At Least $450 Million

Improved El Niño Forecasts Benefit U.S. Agriculture An Estimated $265 - $300 Million AnnuallyImproved El Niño Forecasts Benefit U.S. Agriculture An Estimated $265 - $300 Million Annually

El Niño Forecasts

Hurricanes Cause an Average of $5.1 Billion In Damages, And 20 Deaths Per

Year

Hurricanes Cause an Average of $5.1 Billion In Damages, And 20 Deaths Per

Year

Floods Account For $5.2 Billion In Damages, And Average Over 80 Deaths Per

Year

Floods Account For $5.2 Billion In Damages, And Average Over 80 Deaths Per

Year

Hurricane Isabel Left 27 Dead In 7 States And 3.3 Million People Without Electrical

Power

Hurricane Isabel Left 27 Dead In 7 States And 3.3 Million People Without Electrical

Power

NOAA SatellitesView smoke plumes

From World Trade CenterSeptember 11, 2001

NOAA SatellitesView smoke plumes

From World Trade CenterSeptember 11, 2001

NOAA polar satellite imageAt 5 pm EDT 9/11 showing plume

NOAA polar satellite imageAt 5 pm EDT 9/11 showing plume

GOES captured the plumeWithin minutes of the incidentGOES captured the plumeWithin minutes of the incident

NOAA’s Operational Environmental Satellites

NOAA provides an OPERATIONAL remote sensing capability for

acquiring and disseminating GLOBAL and regional imagery and

measurements of the environment, including METEOROLOGICAL,

CLIMATIC, OCEANOGRAPHIC, SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL, and HAZARDS

data, in support of the NOAA mission and the benefit of the Nation.

AcquisitionAcquisition LaunchLaunch Command & Control

Command & Control

Real-Time Product Development

Real-Time Product Development

Archive & Access

Archive & Access Assessments

Requirements & Planning

Requirements & Planning

User Services

An End-to-End Responsibility

The U. S. has made and continues to make investments in civil operational satellites observing systems.

Such systems allow us to

describe

understand

forecast

assess

the earth and its environment

National Investment

• Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and GOES-R

• Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES)

• National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)

• Processing/distribution of non-NOAA satellite data– DMSP, International geostationary satellites, QuikSCAT,

TOPEX, ERS-2, EOS Terra and Aqua, SeaWIFS

• Environmental Data Management– National Climatic Data Center – National Oceanographic Data Center– National Geophysical Data Center

• Applications Research and Development

• Joint NOAA/NASA/DoD Satellite Data Assimilation Center

NOAA Programs that Support Monitoring the Earth-Climate System

Atmospheric Products: Examples

Winds Total Water Vapor Temperature 500 mb

Rain Rate OzoneAerosol Optical Thickness

Ocean Products: Examples

SST Anomalies Hot Spots: Potential Coral Bleaching

QuikSCAT Winds Sea WIFS Ocean Color

TOPEX Sea Level

Land Surface Products: Examples

Vegetation Health

Snow

Solar Radiation

QuebecFires/Smoke

Global Lights/Fires

Satellite Continuity CY 99 00 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1803 08 09 1001 02 0704 05 06

DMSP

POES

Aqua

C2 or C1

DMSPPOES

NPP

Terra

METOP

WindSat

19

GIFTS/IOMI ?

20 21F

utu

re System

s

GOES

Polar0530

0730

1030

1330

Geostationary

Loca

l Equ

ato

rial C

ross

ing

Tim

e NPOESSNPOESS

NPOESSNPOESS

NPOESSNPOESS

Meteosat Meteosat 2nd GenerationMeteosat 2nd Generation

GOES – R SeriesGOES – R Series

GEOSS: A System of Systems

Attributes of an Integrated Global Observing System

Attributes of an Integrated Global Observing System

SustainedSustained

IntegratedIntegratedComprehensiveComprehensive

India INSATIndia INSATU.S. GOESU.S. GOES

GlobalGlobal

President’s StatementPresident’s Statement

Our cooperation will enable us to develop the capability to predict droughts, prepare for weather emergencies, plan and protect crops, manage coastal areas and fisheries, and monitor air quality

Group on Earth Observations (GEO)

Group on Earth Observations (GEO)

• Membership open to all countries

– 60 countries (including the EC) are now represented

• International organizations are participants

– 43 organizations are now represented

• Organized into 5 subgroups

• Established GEO Secretariat

• Established Implementation Plan Task Team

• Membership open to all countries

– 60 countries (including the EC) are now represented

• International organizations are participants

– 43 organizations are now represented

• Organized into 5 subgroups

• Established GEO Secretariat

• Established Implementation Plan Task Team

GEO Moves ForwardWorking Towards Implementation of the Global Observation System of Systems

(GEOSS)Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year implementation plan

Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005

New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache

Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget

Formally created GEO Committees

GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS

US announced intention to move GOES satellite over South America to help offset lack of sounder data in that region

Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year implementation plan

Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005

New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache

Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget

Formally created GEO Committees

GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS

US announced intention to move GOES satellite over South America to help offset lack of sounder data in that region

Global Earth Observation System of Systems

Integrated Observations & Data Management

Global Earth Observation System of Systems

Integrated Observations & Data Management

Intercalibration of foreign and domestic satellites is fundamental to GEOSS

Societal Benefit AreasSocietal Benefit Areas1. Improve Weather Forecasting

2. Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters

3. Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources

4. Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change

5. Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation

6. Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health and Well-Being

7. Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts

8. Protect and Monitor Water Resources

9. Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

1. Improve Weather Forecasting

2. Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters

3. Protect and Monitor Our Ocean Resources

4. Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate, and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change

5. Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation

6. Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health and Well-Being

7. Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts

8. Protect and Monitor Water Resources

9. Monitor and Manage Energy Resources

Importance of Cal/Val and Next Steps

Satellite Observations Have Contributed to More Accurate

Weather Forecasts

• Southern Hemisphere forecasts are now as accurate as NH forecasts

• Today’s 5-day forecasts as accurate as 3-day forecasts 25 years ago

• BUT …..forecast centers remove satellite biases approximately and empirically

• Improved calibration and intercalibration can be expected to lead to further gains in forecast accuracy

ECMWF

Satellite Observations Have Contributed to Improved Monitoring of Global Climate

Change

One Example:

May 3, 2006Federal Study Finds Accord on Warming By ANDREW C. REVKINA scientific study commissioned by the Bush

administration concluded yesterday that the lower atmosphere was indeed growing warmer ……

Above conclusion based on careful analyses of NOAA’s MSU observations (one analysis is shown on right)

But enormous challenges remain in monitoring global climate change

MSU Tropospheric Temp Anomaly (C) (U. Alabama)

Challenges in Monitoring Global Climate Change from Space

• Need to construct time series by stitching together observations of many satellites

• Extremely small signals– Atmospheric temperature

trends as small as 0.1 C/decade

– Ozone changes as little as 1%/decade

– Variations in the sun’s output as tiny as -0.02%/decade

• Different analyses of observations vary from:

-0.023 to +0.25 W/m2

• Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial

(Wilson, 03) Total Solar Irradiance

(After Frohlich)

Is the Earth Greening?

• NOAA’s AVHRRs have been used to construct a time series of Vegetation Index that indicates a greening Earth – but we don’t know if this is really happening because of uncertainties in calibration and intercalibration of the different satellites

• Good calibration and intercalibration are crucial

Pinatuboeruption

Equ

ato

r C

ross

ing

Tim

e

(After Heidinger)

Next Steps: NOAA/NIST Initiative in Satellite Calibration and Intercalibration

• A Government program is needed to assure instruments meet specification and pre-launch tests are traceable to SI standards, and the on-orbit satellite instrument observations are well calibrated and validated by means of careful analysis of instrument performance, satellite intercalibration and validation with reference sites

• On-orbit validation is needed for foreign satellite instruments to meet GEOSS objectives

• Inadequate calibration can result in economic benefit losses in the billion dollar range.

– Degraded climate trends and projections– Degraded weather forecasts– Degraded ocean and coastal ecosystems assessments– Degraded hazard support information (fires, flash floods, droughts)

• Benefits of improved calibration/intercalibration– Independent confirmation to ensure instruments meet specifications.– Independent recommendations for corrective actions– Better calibrated satellite observations for ecosystems, climate and weather applications

• Resulting in improved information for society

• Fundamental prerequisite for an Integrated Global Earth Observing Systems of Systems (GEOSS)

– Need to properly characterize and minimize observational errors before information can be used in Earth System Models.

Next Steps: Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System (GSICS)

• GSICS: A new World Meteorological Organization (WMO) program

• Overarching Goal: Ensure the comparability of satellite measurements provided at different times, by different instruments under the responsibility of different satellite operators

• Participants: WMO, satellite agencies, national standards institutes, national data centers, major NWP centers, and national research laboratories

• NOAA is taking a leading role

Next Steps: ASIC3 National Roadmap

• By developing a National Roadmap for improving satellite instrument calibration and intercalibration, this workshop will advance the nation’s ability to monitor, understand and predict our natural environment

• Best wishes for a successful Workshop