marvin zonis, professor graduate school of business university of chicago [email protected] mza...
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Marvin Zonis + Associates, Inc., International Risk
ConsultantsMarvin Zonis, Professor Graduate School of Business
University of Chicago [email protected]
MZA
The reduction of strategic challenges
*
Failed States
*
Definition of Globalization - I
The “growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through the increasing volume and variety of crossborder transactions in goods and services and of international capital flows, and also through the more rapid and widespread diffusion of technology.”
-International Monetary Fund
Definition of Globalization - II
*
Sources: UN World Investment Report, Institute for International Finance,UNCTAD, UN High Commission on Refugees, IMF World Economic Outlook, Union of International Assoc.,World Health Org
Capital flows to emerging markets
$21 billion in 1970
$190 billion in 2000
Foreign direct investment flows
$44 billion in 1970
$865 billion in 1999
*
Source: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
1998
1999
Source: Deutsche Bank
Source: Leto Research
-0.0090039392
0.0256849315
0.0517836594
0.0523943662
0.0704145372
0.0851419032
0.1105032823
0.0888650964
0.1050397878
0.0794871795
0.081773399
0.0894788594
0.0912145943
0.0973871734
0.0678506375
0.0911552347
0.1020677519
0.1303030303
0.1219616205
0.1298593879
0.1177644711
0.0854078897
0.1056632459
0.0790629575
0.0964285714
0.1256175018
0.1533172912
0.1516282225
0.151465798
0.1376175549
0.1067064083
0.1245949926
0.1363507779
0.167263709
0.1998384056
0.2084861184
0.2330097087
0.2523607177
Sheet6
*
*
Kills transaction costs
*
Amazon.com apologizes
The Digital Economy
*
*
Source: Matrix information and Directory Services
The Digital Economy
(40,000)
(20,000)
Net Monthly Portfolio Inflows from Europe plus Japan to USA
April 1994-April 2000
Investment
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
MZA
The reduction of strategic challenges
*
Failed States
*
Definition of Globalization - I
The “growing economic interdependence of countries worldwide through the increasing volume and variety of crossborder transactions in goods and services and of international capital flows, and also through the more rapid and widespread diffusion of technology.”
-International Monetary Fund
Definition of Globalization - II
*
Sources: UN World Investment Report, Institute for International Finance,UNCTAD, UN High Commission on Refugees, IMF World Economic Outlook, Union of International Assoc.,World Health Org
Capital flows to emerging markets
$21 billion in 1970
$190 billion in 2000
Foreign direct investment flows
$44 billion in 1970
$865 billion in 1999
*
Source: US Dept of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
1998
1999
Source: Deutsche Bank
Source: Leto Research
-0.0090039392
0.0256849315
0.0517836594
0.0523943662
0.0704145372
0.0851419032
0.1105032823
0.0888650964
0.1050397878
0.0794871795
0.081773399
0.0894788594
0.0912145943
0.0973871734
0.0678506375
0.0911552347
0.1020677519
0.1303030303
0.1219616205
0.1298593879
0.1177644711
0.0854078897
0.1056632459
0.0790629575
0.0964285714
0.1256175018
0.1533172912
0.1516282225
0.151465798
0.1376175549
0.1067064083
0.1245949926
0.1363507779
0.167263709
0.1998384056
0.2084861184
0.2330097087
0.2523607177
Sheet6
*
*
Kills transaction costs
*
Amazon.com apologizes
The Digital Economy
*
*
Source: Matrix information and Directory Services
The Digital Economy
(40,000)
(20,000)
Net Monthly Portfolio Inflows from Europe plus Japan to USA
April 1994-April 2000
Investment
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%