Martinique, March 27-29, 2012

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Dr. José RubieraDirector National Forecast CenterInstitute of Meteorology (INSMET),

CUBA

International Seminar “Caribbean Cluster on Natural Risks and Risks from the Sea¨

Hurricane Early Warnings Hurricane Early Warnings and Warnings: A Cuban and Warnings: A Cuban

Experience.Experience.

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CUBACUBACUBACUBA

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Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest risk for all Caribbean Countriesrisk for all Caribbean Countries

Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest risk for all Caribbean Countriesrisk for all Caribbean Countries

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Several Principles in the Cuban EWSSeveral Principles in the Cuban EWS

• Legal Basis

• Mission, Objectives and Functions clearly defined for each actor.

• All steps in TC Disaster Management are follow.

• Full coordination among main actors

• A complete observing system for the country.

• Operational manuals regulates all actions in the NFC. A QMS will be in force since Hurricane Season 2012

• The use of Media by specialists, with graphics and plain, simple words so that everybody understand the information.

There is a wide legal basis that There is a wide legal basis that regulates the functioning of regulates the functioning of

EWSEWS Law No. 75 of National Defense Decree-law No. 170 on the Civil Defense

system

Guideline No. 1 of the Vice President of the National Defense Council

Law No. 81 / 97 on the Environment

Resolution 106 /99 of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment

Ordinance Law No. 279 of 2007 "On General Principles, Organization, Preparation and Provisions of the Hydrometeorological System of Cuba for Exceptional Situations

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1. The National Forecast Center of INSMET and their territorial branches in charge of monitoring and forecasting Tropical Cyclones

2. Authorities at the different levels of Government, implementing protection measures, advised by officials and experts of the Civil Defense.

3. The Media and social organizations at National to local levels help disseminate information.

4. The citizens, who are well organized, educated and prepared.

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To constantly monitor weather To issue timely Early Warnings to the

Government, the Civil Defense, and the people on any hazardous weather system that could affect any part of the Country.

To transmit Early Warnings and warnings through the Media, mainly TV and radio, updating the information frequently.

To participate in awareness and educational activities

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PREVENTIÓNPREVENTIÓN

PREPARATIONPREPARATION

RESPONSERESPONSE

RECOVERYRECOVERY

RISK ASSESMENT AND PLANNINGRISK ASSESMENT AND PLANNING

PUBLIC EDUCATIONPUBLIC EDUCATION

FORECASTS, EARLY WARNING,WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

ACTIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE

FORECASTS, EARLY WARNING,WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

ACTIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE

RESTABLISH BASIC SERVICESFORECASTS AND WARNINGS

FOR THE AFFECTED AREA

RESTABLISH BASIC SERVICESFORECASTS AND WARNINGS

FOR THE AFFECTED AREA

PREVENTIONAND

MITIGATION

PREVENTIONAND

MITIGATION

CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS IN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENTIN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENT

CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS IN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENTIN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENT

8METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL

THESE STEPSTHESE STEPSMETEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL

THESE STEPSTHESE STEPS

CUBA

NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER (NFC)

CIVIL DEFENSE THE MEDIA

TO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATSTO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATSTO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATSTO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATS

MEDIA

CITIZENSCITIZENS

NATIONAL FORECASTCENTER

CIVIL DEFENSE/GOVERNMENT

MEDIA

The National Forecast Centre issues meteorological warnings on tropical cyclone in a simple way, with clear, concise and

comprehensible words for everybody

The National Civil Defense issues a warning note and advises the population at risk, from National to local levels, on the protection

measures they must take

THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER, AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER,

THE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIATHE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA

THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER, AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER,

THE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIATHE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA

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National TV and Radio Broadcast

the Warnings “Live” (with remote

units) from the NFC and the CD

THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS WELL PREPAREDSERVICE IS WELL PREPARED

THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS WELL PREPAREDSERVICE IS WELL PREPARED

1 National Forecast Centre

15 Provincial Forecast Departments

68 Meteorological Stations

8 Meteorological Radars

2 Meteorological Satellite Ground Stations

THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE HUMAN RESOURCES

THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE HUMAN RESOURCES

METEOROLOGICAL STATIONSMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONSMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONSMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS

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68 MWS + 60 New AWS68 MWS + 60 New AWS

8 Meteorological Radars covers the entire Country8 Meteorological Radars covers the entire Country

WEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBAWEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBAWEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBAWEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBA

RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBARADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBA

Range in each Radar: Qualitatively: 450 - 500 km.Quantitatively: 150 km.

RADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHERRADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHERRADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHERRADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHER

DATA INPUTDATA INPUT ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODELS

ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODELS

ISSUANCE OF FORECASTS

AND WARNINGS

ISSUANCE OF FORECASTS

AND WARNINGS

DIFUSISION OF

FORECASTS AND

WARNINGS

DIFUSISION OF

FORECASTS AND

WARNINGS

RESPONSE ACTIONS BY

GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE AND CITIZENS

RESPONSE ACTIONS BY

GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE AND CITIZENS

SATELILITES

RADARS

WEATHER STATIONS, SOUNDINGS, SHIPS, BUOYS, AIRCRAFS

FORECASTERS

TV

RADIO

TELF - FAX

INTERNET

NUMERICAL MODELS

NATIONAL NATIONAL FORECAST FORECAST

CENTERCENTER

4 daily Weather ReportsIn the main National TV and radio networks,

and to the World by satellite through Cubavision International

Weather information is followed every evening by a little over 6 millions Cubans. In cases of Hurricanes this figure greatly increaseWeather information is followed every evening by a little over 6

millions Cubans. In cases of Hurricanes this figure greatly increase

6 weather presenters, all of them professionals of the National Forecast Center

(3 Ph.D., 1 MSc and 2 meteorologists with university level)

6 weather presenters, all of them professionals of the National Forecast Center

(3 Ph.D., 1 MSc and 2 meteorologists with university level)

TRACK AND TRACK AND EXPECTED EXPECTED

WIND FIELDWIND FIELD

AREAS AREAS WITH WITH

INTENSE INTENSE AND HEAVY AND HEAVY RAINFALLRAINFALL

STORM STORM SURGE SURGE

FORECASTFORECAST

ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE

PUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDSPUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDS

ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE

PUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDSPUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDS

rrrr

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http://www.insmet.cuhttp://www.insmet.cu

NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITENATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITENATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITENATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITE

Free Weather Phone Service +53 7 866 6060

Free Weather Phone Service +53 7 866 6060

1. General Weather Report

2. Watches and Warnings

3. Weather Forecast for Cuba

4. Weather Forecast for Havana City

5. Weather forecast for Havana Province

6. Marine Forecast for Fishermen

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DIAL:

WEATHER PHONE FREE SERVICEWEATHER PHONE FREE SERVICE

WARNINGS

+ CONFIDENCE+ CONFIDENCE

METEOROLOGY

CIVIL DEFENSE

PEOPLE´SACTION

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LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES THAT AND HURRICANES THAT

HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE 19961996

LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES THAT AND HURRICANES THAT

HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE 19961996

LEYEND:LEYEND:

TROPICAL STORM

MINOS HURRICANE (Cat 1 and 2)

MAJOR HURRICANE (Cat 3, 4 or 5)

NAME YEAR CATEGORY DEATHS

Lili 1996 H2 0

Georges 1998 H1 6

Irene 1999 TT 2

Michelle 2001 H4 5

Isidore 2002 H1 0

Lili 2002 H2 1

Charley 2004 H3 4

Ivan 2004 H5 0

Dennis 2005 H4 16

Alberto 2006 TT 0

Ernesto 2006 TT 0

Noel 2007 TT 0

Fay 2008 TT 0

Hanna (Indir.) 2008 TT 0

Gustav 2008 H4 0

Ike 2008 H3 7

Paloma 2008 H4 0 23

ECONOMIC DAMAGES HAVE BEEN LARGE

2008

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COUNTRCOUNTRYY

MajorMajorHurricanHurrican

eses

ResidentResidents at Risk s at Risk (Millions(Millions

))

Number Number of of

DeathsDeaths

Death/ Death/ Million Million

ResidentResidentss

USA 9 35.7 1597 44.7344.73

CUBA 8 11.5 32 2.782.78

EFFECTIVENESS OF CUBAN EWS IN HURRICANESEFFECTIVENESS OF CUBAN EWS IN HURRICANES

RESIDENTS AT RISKRESIDENTS AT RISK

35.7 M35.7 M

11.5 M11.5 M

Sources: NHC (US), INSMET (Cuba)

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1. Cuba has an Early Warning System for Tropical Cyclones that covers all the legal, structural, institutional and public aspects.

2. The strong partnership and interaction among the National Forecast Center, the Civil Defense, the Media and the action of the people is a cornerstone of this system.

3. As a result of it, casualties in hurricanes are a minimum and the smallest amount recorded in the Americas, despite the intense tropical cyclone activity in the area since 1995.

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONSSCONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONSS

INSMET, CUBAINSMET, CUBA

Dr. José RubieraDirector National Forecast Center

Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)Havana, CUBA.

rubieraj@yahoo.com

Dr. José RubieraDirector National Forecast Center

Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)Havana, CUBA.

rubieraj@yahoo.com

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Questions? Comments?Questions? Comments?