markowitz model
TRANSCRIPT
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A. Single Index Model
The CAPM is a theory about expected returnsThe application of the CAPM, i.e., the empirical
version, is ex-post, or after the factThe empirical version is often referred to as the
Single Index ModelOne step removed from the theoretical CAPM and all
of its assumptions
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Single Index Model A broad stock market index is assumed to be the
single, common factor for all securities
i = expected return of stock i if market’s excess return is zero
i(rmt - rft) = component of return due to market movements
eit = component of return due to unexpected firm-specific events
ifmiifi errrr )()(
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Single Index ModelTextbook notation:Ri = ri – rf and Rm = rm - rf Therefore,
imiii eRR
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Early ApplicationTo simplify the Markowitz modelInputs of the Markowitz model: means, standard
deviations, and covariances (or correlation coefficients) of the assets
If you have 50 assets in the investment universe – how many covariances?
n(n-1) 21225
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Simplifying the Markowitz ModelAdopting the Single Index Model is a way to reduce
this number– By simplifying the covariance
According to the model,– All asset returns derive only from the common factor,
RM
– ei is firm-specific, and hence uncorrelated across assetsTherefore,
Cov(Ri, Rj) = Cov(iRM, jRM ) = ijM
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Implication for Security AnalysisThis setup allows security analysts to specialize
Provides rationale for why analysts do not have to research other industries
Model says there is no relationship, only the common factor (the market) matters
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Decomposing Total Risk
Single Index Model for a portfolio of stocks:
The variance of Rp is:
As the number of stocks increases, the last term becomes less important as a result of diversification
Total risk = systematic risk + diversifiable risk
pmppp eRR
)(2222pmpp e
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If Portfolios are equally weighted...
Pink curve: total risk. Can exclude proof on pp.276-7
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Estimating the Single Index ModelRegression analysis
Typically, use monthly returns over the past 5 years (i.e., 60 observations) to estimate
Y: excess return on individual security (or individual portfolio)
X: excess return on market indexIntercept is i, slope is i
itmtiiit eRR
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Security Characteristic Line
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Interpreting the Results
alpha
statistical significancebeta
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The Meaning of R2
2
2
2
222 )(
1i
i
i
mi eR
The goodness-of-fit measure, R2, from the Single Index Model regression (the SCL) is:
In words, the R2 = the percentage of total risk of asset i that can be explained by its systematic risk
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Industry VersionsBMO Nesbitt Burns, Merrill Lynch, Value Line
These (and several other) beta estimate providers use raw returns, not excess returns
That model is called the Market ModelSome firms forecast beta as a function of past betasSome firms forecast beta as a function of firm size,
growth, leverage,… etc.
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Industry VersionsMerrill Lynch
‘Adjusted ’: 2/3 sample beta and 1/3 beta of one Adjusted = 2/3 + 1/3
Tendency for to move toward one over time Hence, take this into account in forecasts
Beta booksMerrill Lynch: monthlyIbbotson Associates: semi-annual
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Market Neutral StrategiesAn application of the Single Index ModelConsider the following “market neutral” investment
strategySuppose the returns to the manager’s portfolio can be
characterized by (example on p.288):
You like the alpha, but do not want the market exposure
pTSXp eRR 4.104.0
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Market Neutral StrategiesFirst, create the following tracking portfolio, T:
T is a leveraged portfolio: 1.4 in the TSX, and -0.4 in risk-free asset (or use
derivative securities)(Typo in text: share in risk-free asset should be -0.4,
not 20.4)Buy P and sell T. End result:
TSXR4.1
pTpc eRRR 04.0