markets, he wrote - fama
TRANSCRIPT
By: Anirban BasuSage Policy Group, Inc.
October 5th, 2017
Markets, He WroteOn Behalf of
The FEMSA/FAMA 2017 Annual Conference
Macro P.I.(Just How Hairy is the
Global Situation?)
Photo: Flixter.com
0.3%1.9%
1.0%2.6%
7.2%6.7%
6.5%1.4%
3.5%2.7%
4.6%2.1%
3.1%2.5%
1.7%1.3%
3.1%1.3%
1.8%1.5%
1.9%2.0%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%Brazil
MexicoLatin America & the Caribbean
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & PakistanIndia (3)
ChinaEmerging & Developing Asia
RussiaEmerging & Developing Europe
Sub-Saharan AfricaEmerging Market & Developing Economies
United StatesAustralia
CanadaUnited Kingdom
JapanSpain
ItalyGermany
FranceEuro Area
Advanced Economies
Annual % Change
Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas2017 Projected
Source: International Monetary Fund: World Economic Outlook Update, July 2017
2017 Proj. Global Output Growth: 3.5%
2016 Growth (Estimate)World: 3.2% Euro Area: 1.8%United States: 1.6% Japan: 1.0%
International Population Dynamics, 16 Largest NationsNation Population (Millions) % Change2017 2050 Net Change
Nigeria 190.9 410.6 219.8 115.1% Ethiopia 105.0 190.9 85.9 81.9% Egypt 97.6 153.4 55.9 57.3% Pakistan 197.0 306.9 109.9 55.8% Philippines 104.9 151.3 46.4 44.2% Mexico 129.2 164.3 35.1 27.2% India 1,339.2 1,659.0 319.8 23.9% Bangladesh 164.7 201.9 37.3 22.6% Indonesia 264.0 321.6 57.6 21.8% United States 324.5 389.6 65.1 20.1% Vietnam 95.5 114.6 19.1 20.0% Brazil 209.3 232.7 23.4 11.2% China 1,409.5 1,364.5 ‐45.1 ‐3.2% Germany 82.1 79.2 ‐2.9 ‐3.5% Russian Federation 144.0 132.7 ‐11.3 ‐7.8% Japan 127.5 108.8 ‐18.7 ‐14.7% World 7.6 billion 9.8 billion 2.2 billion 29.4%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)/Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision.
*For statistical purposes, the data for China do not include Hong Kong and Macao, Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of China, and Taiwan Province of China.
Top 15 Bottom 15
Rank* Country Fertility Rate Rank* Country Fertility
Rate
1 Niger 7.29 187 Malta 1.422 Somalia 6.37 188 Italy 1.373 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 6.20 188 Slovak Republic 1.374 Mali 6.15 190 Mauritius 1.365 Chad 6.05 191 Cyprus 1.356 Burundi 5.78 192 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.357 Angola 5.77 193 Poland 1.328 Uganda 5.68 193 Spain 1.329 Timor-Leste 5.62 195 Greece 1.3010 Nigeria 5.59 196 Macao SAR, China 1.2811 Gambia, The 5.49 197 Moldova 1.2512 Burkina Faso 5.44 198 Singapore 1.2413 Mozambique 5.31 199 Korea, Rep. 1.2414 Tanzania 5.08 200 Portugal 1.2315 Benin 5.05 201 Hong Kong SAR, China 1.20
Niamey Vice(Fertility Rates by Country, 2015)
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
*Rank among 201 countries for which data are available for the most recent year (2015)**Total fertility rate represents the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years and bear children in accordance with age-specific fertility rates of the specified year.
Global Debt to Exacerbate Slow Growth?
Sources: 1. International Monetary Fund. October 2016. “World Economic Outlook: Subdued Demand: Symptoms and Remedies.” 2. International Monetary Fund (IMF). October 2016. “Fiscal Monitor: Debt—Use It Wisely.”
• According to the IMF, global debt reached an all-time highin 2015;
• At $152 trillion, global gross debt of the nonfinancial sector now represents 225% of global GDP;
• About 2/3 of this debt is in the private sector;• Current low nominal-growth environment is making
adjustment difficult, setting the stage for a “vicious feedback loop” in which lower growth hampers deleveraging and the debt overhang exacerbates the slowdown.2
Note: The nonfinancial sector comprises the general government, nonfinancial firms, and households. Gross debt represents the unconsolidated liabilities of the three.
Global Debt Reaches All Time Highs (IIF)
Sources: 1. Institute of International Finance (IFF), Global Debt Monitor. 2. Business Insider. 3. The Telegraph. 4. Reuters.
• According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), global debt has reached an all-time high in 2016;
• At $215 trillion, global debt—including household, government, and corporate—now represents 325% of global GDP;
• Last year the IMF warned of risks to the global economy:• “sheer size of debt could set the stage for an unprecedented
private deleveraging process that could thwart the fragile economic recovery”
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$/B
arre
l
September 2017:$49.88 /Barrel
NYMEX Crude Oil Future Prices in U.S. DollarsSeptember 2001 through September 2017
*Month of September = average of daily prices from 9/1-9/29Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
US$ NominalBase metals include aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc.Precious metals include gold, platinum, and silver.
Base Metals
Iron Ore
Precious Metals
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
165
Aug
-07
Dec
-07
Apr
-08
Aug
-08
Dec
-08
Apr
-09
Aug
-09
Dec
-09
Apr
-10
Aug
-10
Dec
-10
Apr
-11
Aug
-11
Dec
-11
Apr
-12
Aug
-12
Dec
-12
Apr
-13
Aug
-13
Dec
-13
Apr
-14
Aug
-14
Dec
-14
Apr
-15
Aug
-15
Dec
-15
Apr
-16
Aug
-16
Dec
-16
Apr
-17
Aug
-17
2010
=100
Metal Price IndicesAugust 2007 through August 2017
Source: The World Bank
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Oct
-09
Feb-
10
Jun-
10
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-10
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-13
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Jun-
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Feb-
16
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16
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-16
Feb-
17
Jun-
17
Oct
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Jan. 4, 1985: 1,000
October 2nd
1,328
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a measure of the price of shipping major raw materials such as metals, grains, and fossil fuels by sea. The BDI is a composite of 3 sub-indices, each covering a different carrier size: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax.
Baltic Dry IndexOctober 2009 through October 2017
Source: Quandl.com
USA CSI
Photo: AMCNetworks.com
(Commercial Situation Investigation)
Gross Domestic Product1990Q2 through 2017Q2*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%19
90Q
219
91Q
119
91Q
419
92Q
319
93Q
219
94Q
119
94Q
419
95Q
319
96Q
219
97Q
119
97Q
419
98Q
319
99Q
220
00Q
120
00Q
420
01Q
320
02Q
220
03Q
120
03Q
420
04Q
320
05Q
220
06Q
120
06Q
420
07Q
320
08Q
220
09Q
120
09Q
420
10Q
320
11Q2
2012
Q1
2012
Q4
2013
Q3
2014
Q2
2015
Q1
2015
Q4
2016
Q3
2017
Q2
% C
hang
e fr
om P
rece
ding
Per
iod
(SA
AR
) 2017Q2: +3.1%
*3rd(final) Estimate
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component2016Q3 – 2017Q2*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
PersonalConsumption
GovernmentSpending
Net Exports GrossInvestment
1.92
0.090.36 0.40
1.99
0.03
-1.61
1.341.32
-0.11
0.22
-0.20
2.24
-0.03
0.21
0.64
SAA
R (%
)
2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2
2.8
1.8
1.2
3.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
GDP
Per
cent
Cha
nge
from
Pre
cedi
ng P
erio
d (S
AA
R)
2017Q2: +3.1%
*3rd(final) Estimate
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSAugust 2002 through August 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Thou
sand
s
August 2017: +156K
National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry SectorAugust 2016 v. August 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-678
58
88
108
138
149
214
323
476
602
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Information
Government
Mining and Logging
Other Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 2,097K jobs gained
U.S. Employment to Population RatioAugust 2000 – August 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Note: Civilian employment-population ratio, population 16 years and over, seasonally adjusted (SA).
58.0
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
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August 2017:60.1%
Firefighters: Occupational Outlook
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Employment for firefighters is projected to grow 5% from 2014-2024;
• Physically fit applicants with high test scores, some post-secondary firefighter education, and paramedic training have the best job prospects;
• 2/3 of situations that firefighters respond to are medical emergencies, not fires.
High Demand for Volunteer Firefighters
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Fire Rescue Magazine
• Volunteer firefighters share the same duties as paid firefighters and account for the majority of firefighters in many areas.
• According to the National Fire Protection Association, about 69 percent of fire departments were staffed entirely by volunteer firefighters in 2013.
Volunteers Tougher to Find
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Fire Rescue Magazine; National Fire Protection Association
• At the same time, the number of volunteer firefighters has declined significantly and volunteers continue to age;
• The number of firefighters that are strictly volunteers declined by more than 10 percent from 2000 to 2015;
• Departments are having trouble attracting younger volunteers:• Increased demands on people’s time and longer commutes;
• Growth of two-income households;
• Increased training requirements and costs
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %1 NEVADA 3.0 18 CALIFORNIA 1.6 35 INDIANA 1.02 GEORGIA 2.7 18 KENTUCKY 1.6 35 OHIO 1.03 FLORIDA 2.6 18 MASSACHUSETTS 1.6 35 PENNSYLVANIA 1.03 UTAH 2.6 18 MONTANA 1.6 38 NEW JERSEY 0.95 TEXAS 2.5 18 NORTH CAROLINA 1.6 39 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.86 MARYLAND 2.3 23 MINNESOTA 1.5 40 DELAWARE 0.66 OREGON 2.3 23 VIRGINIA 1.5 40 HAWAII 0.68 IDAHO 2.2 25 ALABAMA 1.4 40 MISSISSIPPI 0.69 NEW HAMPSHIRE 2.1 25 MICHIGAN 1.4 40 VERMONT 0.69 WASHINGTON 2.1 25 NEW YORK 1.4 40 WISCONSIN 0.611 ARKANSAS 1.9 28 ARIZONA 1.3 45 CONNECTICUT 0.411 RHODE ISLAND 1.9 28 NEBRASKA 1.3 45 ILLINOIS 0.413 COLORADO 1.8 28 NORTH DAKOTA 1.3 45 MAINE 0.413 MISSOURI 1.8 31 LOUISIANA 1.2 48 ALASKA 0.113 TENNESSEE 1.8 31 OKLAHOMA 1.2 48 WEST VIRGINIA 0.116 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.7 33 IOWA 1.1 50 KANSAS 0.616 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.7 33 NEW MEXICO 1.1 51 WYOMING 0.9
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) August 2016 v. August 2017 Percent Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: +1.4%
Rank MSA % Rank MSA %
1 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.3 13 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 2.1
2 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 3.2 14 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.0
3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 3.1 15 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 1.8
4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 2.8 15 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 1.8
5 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 2.7 15 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 1.8
6 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 2.6 18 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 1.7
7 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 2.5 19 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 1.5
7 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 2.5 20 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 1.4
9 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA 2.4 21 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 1.3
10 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA 2.3 22 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 1.1
10 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 2.3 23 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 0.6
10 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 2.3 24 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 0.5
Employment Growth, 24 Largest Metros (NSA)August 2016 v. August 2017 Percent Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) Survey
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR1 Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO MSA 2.2 10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 4.2
2 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 3.4 14 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA 4.3
3 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metro NECTA 3.5 15 Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA 4.4
4 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 3.7 16 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
MSA 4.5
5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA 3.8 17 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA 4.6
6 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 3.9 18 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA MSA 4.7
6 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA 3.9 19 New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA 4.8
8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 4.0 20 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA 5.1
9 St. Louis, MO-IL MSA (1) 4.1 20 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 5.1
10 Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD MSA 4.2 22 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA 5.2
10 Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA 4.2 23 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA 5.3
10 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA MSA 4.2 24 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 6.2
Unemployment Rates, 24 Largest Metros (NSA)August 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 1. Area boundaries do not reflect official OMB definitions.
U.S. Unemployment RateAugust: 4.4%
21 Jump Street
(And Other Addresses of Interest)
Photo: TheMoveDatabase.org
15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates September 1995 through September 2017*
Source: Freddie Mac
*Week ending 9/28/2017
3.13%
3.83%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
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Rate
15-yr 30-yr
*NSA: not seasonally adjusted
U.S. Homeownership (NSA)1980Q2-2017Q2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
1980
Q2
1981
Q2
1982
Q2
1983
Q2
1984
Q2
1985
Q2
1986
Q2
1987
Q2
1988
Q2
1989
Q2
1990
Q2
1991
Q2
1992
Q2
1993
Q2
1994
Q2
1995
Q2
1996
Q2
1997
Q2
1998
Q2
1999
Q2
2000
Q2
2001
Q2
2002
Q2
2003
Q2
2004
Q2
2005
Q2
2006
Q2
2007
Q2
2008
Q2
2009
Q2
2010
Q2
2011Q
220
12Q
220
13Q
220
14Q
220
15Q
220
16Q
220
17Q
2
2017Q2:63.7%
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$ B
illi
ons
(SA
AR
)U.S. Private New Multifamily ConstructionAugust 1993 through August 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select MetrosJuly 2017, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
3.3% 3.3%3.9%
5.1% 5.3%5.8% 6.1%
6.7% 6.8%7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4%
12-M
onth
% C
hang
e
U.S. Single-Family Housing StartsAugust 1999 through August 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
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400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
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Thou
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s, S
AA
R August 2017: 851K
Construction Spending on Public SafetyJanuary 2002 through August 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
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6,000
8,000
10,000
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14,000
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-17
SAA
R ($
mil
lion
s)
Dec-08$15.1B
Aug-17$8.3B
National Nonresidential Construction Spending by Subsector August 2014 v. August 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-23.7%-20.9%
-16.8%-10.3%
-8.4%-4.5%-3.3%
1.7%4.4%5.5%5.9%
32.1%36.7%37.9%
52.5%70.2%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Sewage and waste disposalConservation and development
Water supplyPublic safety
PowerReligious
Highway and streetTransportationManufacturing
Health careEducationalCommercial
CommunicationAmusement and recreation
OfficeLodging
3-year % Change
Total Nonresidential Construction:
+$57.16B; +9.0%
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Bil
lion
s of
$U
S
Foreign investment increases 85.1% in 2015
Cross-border investment remained elevated in 2016: Although down relative to a record 2015, offshore investment levels still exceeded the pre-2015 high in 2007.
Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million
Commercial/Multifamily Offshore Investment Sales Volumes Reach New Heights in 2015/16
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics
14.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD
Foreign Participation as a % of Total Office Volume
1.1%1.1%1.4%1.6%1.9%2.1%2.8%
4.8%4.8%5.6%6.8%7.1%8.4%
45.5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
San DiegoPhiladelphia
AustinAtlanta
ChicagoNorthern New Jersey
MiamiSeattle-Bellevue
Los AngelesDallas-Fort Worth
Washington, DCBoston
San FranciscoNew York
Foreign Office Investment by Destination Market (as a % of Total, 2016YTD)
Note: Among transactions larger than $5.0 million; includes all office markets which received > 1.0% of offshore capital.
Primary markets continue to capture the lion’s share of inbound capital, receiving 78.2% of this capital YTD.
Foreign Office Investment Activity, as of 2016Q3
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle; Real Capital Analytics
Down to “The Wire”
Photo: RecapGuide.com
Sales Growth by Type of Business August 2016 v. August 2017*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-3.5%-1.4%
0.5%
0.6%
1.5%2.1%
2.3%
2.5%
5.2%
5.4%6.4%
7.5%
8.4%
-5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10%
Electronics & Appliance Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music StoresHealth & Personal Care Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Food & Beverage Stores
Food Services & Drinking PlacesGeneral Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Gasoline Stations
Building Material & Garden Supplies DealersInternet, etc. Retailers
12-month % change*August 2017 advanced estimate
Total Retail Sales: +3.2% YOY
U.S. Saving Rate, August 2005 – August 2017 (Savings as Percentage of Personal Disposable Income)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0A
ug-0
5D
ec-0
5A
pr-0
6A
ug-0
6D
ec-0
6A
pr-0
7A
ug-0
7D
ec-0
7A
pr-0
8A
ug-0
8D
ec-0
8A
pr-0
9A
ug-0
9D
ec-0
9A
pr-1
0A
ug-1
0D
ec-1
0A
pr-1
1A
ug-1
1D
ec-1
1A
pr-1
2A
ug-1
2D
ec-1
2A
pr-1
3A
ug-1
3D
ec-1
3A
pr-1
4A
ug-1
4D
ec-1
4A
pr-1
5A
ug-1
5D
ec-1
5A
pr-1
6A
ug-1
6D
ec-1
6A
pr-1
7A
ug-1
7
Savi
ngs
Rat
e (%
)
August 2017:3.6%
U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment (SAAR)% Change from Previous Quarter, 2000Q2 – 2017Q2*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2000
Q2
2000
Q4
2001
Q2
2001
Q4
2002
Q2
2002
Q4
2003
Q2
2003
Q4
2004
Q2
2004
Q4
2005
Q2
2005
Q4
2006
Q2
2006
Q4
2007
Q2
2007
Q4
2008
Q2
2008
Q4
2009
Q2
2009
Q4
2010
Q2
2010
Q4
2011Q
220
11Q4
2012
Q2
2012
Q4
2013
Q2
2013
Q4
2014
Q2
2014
Q4
2015
Q2
2015
Q4
2016
Q2
2016
Q4
2017
Q2
2017Q2:+3.9%
*3rd(final) Estimate
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators IndexAugust 2007 through August 2017
Source: Conference Board
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%A
ug-0
7
Feb-
08
Aug
-08
Feb-
09
Aug
-09
Feb-
10
Aug
-10
Feb-
11
Aug
-11
Feb-
12
Aug
-12
Feb-
13
Aug
-13
Feb-
14
Aug
-14
Feb-
15
Aug
-15
Feb-
16
Aug
-16
Feb-
17
Aug
-17
On
e-m
onth
Per
cent
Cha
nge
August 2017: 128.8 where 2010: 100
The Closer
Photo: Google
• There are indications of mini-bubbles forming in commercial real estate, particularly in office, lodging and multifamily segments;
• There are also longer-term structural considerations, including the national debt and pending insolvencies of Medicare and Social Security – the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating even as the short-run improves;
• Momentum should see us through 2017, but tighter monetary policy combined with a heavy dose of political intrigue could render 2018 different. By this time in 2019/20, the economy could be in a far different place and likely will be.
*Kyra Sedgwick as Brenda Leigh Johnson
• Global economy remains weak, and correspondingly . . . ;
• Global money has continued to pour into America in search of yield and safety, including into commercial real estate – that was particularly true in 2015, only a bit less true in 2016;
• Inflationary pressures are on the rise – so, too, are interest rates – eventually -- that could begin to squeeze asset prices in 2017/18, triggering negative wealth effects and sentiment in the process;
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