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American Association of Retirement Communities Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time Gregg Logan Managing Director RCLCO

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Page 1: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

American Association of Retirement Communities

Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time

Gregg LoganManaging Director

RCLCO

Page 2: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 2

BABY BOOMERS MARKET

45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+)

► Nearly double the households of 25 years ago

► The Leading-Edge Baby Boomers: 1946 -1955, aged 64 - 73

» Came of age during the Vietnam War era

» Slightly more than half of Boomers - 38,002,000 people

► Late Boomers 1956 -1964, aged 55 to 63

» 37,818,000 people

Comprise 25% of the U.S. population, control 70% of financial assets, wield 50% of discretionary spending power

Page 3: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 3

BABY BOOMERS MARKET

► Where

» Communities with people who share their interests

» Suburban or walkable urban

» Sedentary and isolated, or active, social, and fulfilling

► What sort of home

» Down-sizing

» Single family, townhouse, condo, apt

► How they'll spend their time

» Desire to live a more enriched lifestyle this

next phaseRetiring Boomers are considering:

Page 4: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 4

BABY BOOMERS MARKET

New home / community target market is that subset of Boomers – about 25% -that are well off and healthy► Some are retiring and value seeking

► Some continuing to work, enjoying encore careers

Some seek new community environments with…► Active and social amenities

► Opportunity to live a more social lifestyle, places providing meaningful connections

► Moving within the suburbs or to the exurbs

Page 5: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 5

NAME EARLY EMPTY NESTERS LATE EMPTY NESTERS EARLY SENIORS LATE SENIORS

Age 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74

Description Young, NOT retired, but considering simplification

50% - 60% retiring; thinking about “the last best house”

Target for retirement communities

Retirement communities and Senior Housing

Household Makeup

Married, some may still have children under 18 Married; Children over 18 Married couples, adult

children Married and singles

LocationMostly in suburbs where

families were raised, access to work and activities

Many in suburbs, some relocated or seasonally living

in warm weather states

Many retire to sunny locations; prefer bucolic setting but with services

Prefer warm climates, retirement community or

senior housing

Activities

Most are still employed, physically active skiing,

biking, exercising, active investors, sports

enthusiasts

Physically active, active social life, travel, cruises, boating

Exercise, active social life, travel, pursue hobbies, avid readers, support charitable

organizations

Least active of the segments, Avid readers, watch TV,

sociable in clubs and organizations

BABY BOOMERS MARKET

Source: RCLCO

Page 6: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

ECONOMIC CONTEXTMASTER PLANNED COMMUNITIES

Page 7: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 7

SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING MARKET

Source: RCLCO

New Home Sales Volume Sensitive to Rates and Prices

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

New Home Sales and Prices

New SFD Sales Avg Median Sales Price

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

2019

New Home Sales and Mortgage Rates

New SFD Sales Mortgage Rate

Page 8: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 8

2019 MID-YEAR RANKINGS: TOP 20 MPC’S

Source: RCLCO

Page 9: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 9

TOP SELLING MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITIES BY LOCATION

Source: RCLCO

29%20%

15%

13% 10%

3%3%

2%2%2%1%

FL TX CA AZ NV VANC UT SC CO WA

FLORIDATEXAS

CALIFORNIA

ARIZONA NEVADA

Page 10: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 10

MPC RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Source: U.S. Census Survey of Construction; RCLCO

Top 50 MPCs represent 4.6% of new home sales—down from their peak of 5.3% in 2012

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

U.S. New Home Sales and Share of Sales in Top MPCs

Total New Home Sales - US Top 10 MPCs Share Top 20 MPCs Share Top 50 MPCs Share

Page 11: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 11

WHERE ARE WE IN THE CYCLE?RCLCO SENTIMENT SURVEY

Source: RCLCO

Page 12: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 12

WHERE WILL WE BE IN THE CYCLE IN 2020?RCLCO SENTIMENT SURVEY

Source: RCLCO

Page 13: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 13

GAP BETWEEN SHORT-TERM, LONG-TERM YIELDS AS AN INVERSION SPREAD PRECEDED LAST NINE RECESSIONS

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; RCLCO

Yield Curve Inversions are one potential indicator

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

2014

-04-2

220

14-0

5-22

2014

-06-2

220

14-0

7-22

2014

-08-2

220

14-0

9-22

2014

-10-2

220

14-1

1-22

2014

-12-2

220

15-0

1-22

2015

-02-2

220

15-0

3-22

2015

-04-2

220

15-0

5-22

2015

-06-2

220

15-0

7-22

2015

-08-2

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15-0

9-22

2015

-10-2

220

15-1

1-22

2015

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220

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1-22

2016

-02-2

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3-22

2016

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5-22

2016

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7-22

2016

-08-2

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9-22

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220

16-1

1-22

2016

-12-2

220

17-0

1-22

2017

-02-2

220

17-0

3-22

2017

-04-2

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5-22

2017

-06-2

220

17-0

7-22

2017

-08-2

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17-0

9-22

2017

-10-2

220

17-1

1-22

2017

-12-2

220

18-0

1-22

2018

-02-2

220

18-0

3-22

2018

-04-2

220

18-0

5-22

2018

-06-2

220

18-0

7-22

2018

-08-2

220

18-0

9-22

2018

-10-2

220

18-1

1-22

2018

-12-2

220

19-0

1-22

2019

-02-2

220

19-0

3-22

2019

-04-2

220

19-0

5-22

2019

-06-2

220

19-0

7-22

2019

-08-2

220

19-0

9-22

2019

-10-2

2

Yield Curve Inversion 10-Year Treasury Yield 3-Month Treasury Yield

Page 14: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 14

HISTORICAL RECESSION DATA SUGGESTS MILDER EFFECTS UPCOMING VERSUS 2009

Source: RCLCO

RecessionChange in

GDP

Change in New Home

Median Sales Price [1]

Change in New Home Sales Volume [1]

Single-Family Permit

Issuance [1]

Multi-Family Permit

Issuance [1]

Change in Mortgage Interest

Rates Severity and Causes

1969-1970 -1.10% -6.00% -3.50% -5.00% -15.00% N/A Mild; coincided with fiscal tightening and Federal Reserve raising interest rates

1973-1975 -2.50% 7.50% -10.60% -24.90% -40.00% 1.10% Deep; Significant period of economic stagnation caused by oil crisis and fall of the Bretton Woods system

1980 -2.20% 4.40% -5.90% -4.20% -8.60% -0.70% Mild; Federal Reserve raised interest rates, seeking to thwart high inflation which had increased to 7.7%

1981-1983 -2.60% 1.30% -13.00% -11.00% -7.30% -3.80% Deep; Iranian revolution caused a spike in oil prices; Federal Reserve tight monetary policies

1990-1991 -1.40% -0.70% -11.60% -7.30% -17.30% -0.70% Mild; Inflation began to grow, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, weakening growth; high oil prices contributed

2001 -0.40% 3.00% -13.20% -3.50% -5.40% -0.80% Brief and shallow recession following the collapse of the Dot.Com bubble and September 11 attack

2008-2009 -4.00% -16.70% -66.20% -63.60% -61.10% -1.70% Worst since the 1930's; Subprime lending and housing speculation

Page 15: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 15

IF THERE IS RECESSION IT WON’T BE 2009

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; RCLCO

Market is not oversupplied: current months of supply is much lower than in 2009

Page 16: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 16

10 YEAR POPULATION PROJECTIONS

► We don’t hit ‘Peak Boomer’ until 2035:

Source: U.S. Census Population Projections

Population Projections

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 100+

2030 2020

Growth 2020 - 2030

Page 17: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 17

CONSUMER PREFERENCES SUGGEST GREATER MPC POTENTIAL

Price BandU.S. New Home

Sales(2018)

% New Home Buyers Would

Prefer MPC

Potential MPC Sales

(2018)

Top 50 MPC Sales*(2018)

Top 50 MPC Capture ofPotential

<$300K 259,000 52% 134,100 5,400 4%

$300-450K 198,000 58% 114,400 10,600 9%

$450-759K 123,000 57% 70,100 9,400 13%

$750K+ 36,000 53% 19,200 3,100 16%

Total 616,000 55% 337,800 28,500 8%

* Sales at top 50 MPCs, distributed across price bands using current price distribution at 39 of those communitiesSource: U.S. Census Survey of Construction; RCLCO

If the 300 MPCs RCLCO tracks sold as well as the top 50 MPCs, they’d still only capture half what consumer preference indicates

Page 18: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 18

HOUSING ATTAINABILITY CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE

Housing Affordability Ratio continues to rise with sales prices

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; RCLCO

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

20102012

20142016

2018Hous

ing

Affo

rdab

ility

Rat

io (H

ome

Pric

e to

Inco

me)

Median Sales Prices Housing Affordability Ratio

Page 19: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 19

CAPTURING UNMET POTENTIAL MPC DEMAND

Note: “Top MPCs” includes 39 of 2018’s top 50 MPCs; “Potential MPC Buyers” includes prospective buyers who would consider an MPCU.S. Census Survey of Construction; RCLCO

Attainability is a big challenge; many potential MPC buyers seek homes under $300,000; more MPC housing is $300,000+

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<$300K $300-450K $450-759K $750K+

Home Price Distribution of New Home Sales, Potential MPC Buyers, and Supply in Top MPCs

Actual New Home Sales Potential MPC Buyers Supply in Top MPCs

Page 20: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 20

CAPTURING UNMET POTENTIAL MPC DEMAND

Note: “Top MPCs” includes 39 of 2018’s top 50 MPCs; “Potential MPC Buyers” includes prospective buyers who would consider an MPCU.S. Census Survey of Construction; RCLCO

Consumers are finding new homes outside of MPCs under $300,000; product diversity could improve this for MPC’s

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<$300K $300-450K $450-759K $750K+

Home Price Distribution of New Home Sales, Potential MPC Buyers, and Supply in Top MPCs

Actual New Home Sales Potential MPC Buyers Supply in Top MPCs

Missed opportunity at MPCs

Page 21: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 21

CAPTURING UNMET POTENTIAL MPC DEMAND

Note: “Top MPCs” includes 39 of 2018’s top 50 MPCs; “Potential MPC Buyers” includes prospective buyers who would consider an MPCU.S. Census Survey of Construction; RCLCO

Nearly 40% of potential MPC buyers would like a home under 2,000 SF—only 25% of MPC supply falls in this range

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<2,000 SF 2,000-2,999 SF 3,000-3,999 SF 4,000+ SF

Home Size Distribution of New Home Completions, Potential MPC Buyers, and Supply in Top MPCs

New Home Completions Potential MPC Buyers Supply in Top MPCs

Page 22: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 22

CAPTURING UNMET POTENTIAL MPC DEMAND

Note: “Top MPCs” includes 39 of 2018’s top 50 MPCs; “Potential MPC Buyers” includes prospective buyers who would consider an MPCU.S. Census Survey of Construction; RCLCO

Nearly 40% of potential MPC buyers would like a home under 2,000 SF—only 25% of MPC supply falls in this range

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

<2,000 SF 2,000-2,999 SF 3,000-3,999 SF 4,000+ SF

Home Size Distribution of New Home Completions, Potential MPC Buyers, and Supply in Top MPCs

New Home Completions Potential MPC Buyers Supply in Top MPCs

Missed opportunity at MPCs

Page 23: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 23

BIG INFLUENCE ON HOUSING DEMAND: HOUSEHOLD GROWTH

The JCHS household projections call for 12.2 million additional households formed between2018 and 2028, a downward revision of the 2016 projection of 16.9 million estimated baseline demand for 2015-2025.

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

Under Age 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 and over

JCHS HH Growth Forecast 2018 - 2028

Page 24: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 24

RCLCO 2019 55+ CONSUMER RESEARCH

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Number one reason age 55+ say they’re likely to buy a new home is preparation of retirement

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Having a child or additional children

Recently married

Getting divorced/separating from partner

Adult (18+) family member moving in

Getting married

New job/move closer to work

Purchasing first home

Rent increases

Last child moved out (empty nest)

Preparing for retirement/Recently retired

Page 25: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 25

LOCATION ATTRIBUTES INFLUENCING THE DESIRE/NEED TO MOVE IN THE NEXT THREE YEARS

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Move into better school district or closer to schools

Move closer to job

More to a more suburban area

Move closer to entertainment/cultural attractions

Move to a more walkable urban area

More to more exclusive area

Move closer to recreational amenities

Move closer to family

Move to more affordable area

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Affordability and proximity to family are the biggest motivations for boomers looking to move

Page 26: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 26

RETIREMENT PREFERENCES OF 55+

Close to 60% prefer Suburbs

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Suburban residential Suburban mixed-use Small town Urban area residential Urban area mixed-use Rural area Resort area

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Page 27: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 27

RETIREMENT PREFERENCES

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%

Age-targeted within an all-ages community

Age-restricted (55+)

No restriction or targets on age

Many 55+ households prefer to live in a non-age restricted community

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Page 28: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 28

WHAT THEY’RE LOOKING FOR WITH NEXT HOME PURCHASE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Want lower maintenancehome

Want smaller home Want higher quality home Want larger house Want larger yard

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

55+ households want smaller homes and less maintenance but still want a quality home

Page 29: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 29

MASTER BEDROOM LOCATION PREFERENCE

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

<35

35-54

55+

Single story: master on first floor Two story or more story: master on first floorTwo story or more story: master upstairs Not important, could be on the main level or upstairs

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

The 55+ age group prefers the master bedroom on the first floor

Page 30: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 30

RETIREMENT PREFERENCES AMONG 55+

About a third of 55+ households say they will move out of state for retirement; most will move in-State

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Out of State New neighborhood incurrent city

New county, same state Don't plan to move New city, same county

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Page 31: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 31

IMPORTANCE IN CHOOSING RETIREMENT DESTINATION

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Affordability, house features, weather, taxes, community features

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Proximity to Friends

Community Features

Proximity to Family

Tax Benefits

Weather

House Features

Affordability

Very Important Important

Page 32: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 32

STATE PREFERENCE FOR RETIREMENT (55+)

Source: US Census Bureau

Florida, Arizona, South Carolina, and North Carolina are the most popular destinations

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Net Migration

Florida Arizona South Carolina North Carolina NevadaTennessee Texas Washington Idaho Delaware

Page 33: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 33

MOST POPULAR PRICE POINTS

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data, Census

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

<$150,000

$150,000-$250,000

$250,000-$350,000

$350,000-$450,000

$450,000-$750,000

$750,000-$1,000,000

$1,000,000+

Price Point Preference<35 Total 35-54 Total 55+ Total

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

<$150,000

$150,000-$199,999

$200,000-$299,999

$300,000-$399,999

$400,000-$499,999

$500,000-$749,999

$750,000+

2018 New Homes Sales

Page 34: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 34

CHARACTER OF LOCATION PREFERENCE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Suburbanresidential

Suburban mixed-use

Small town Urban arearesidential

Urban area mixed-use

Rural area Resort area

Households 55+

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Page 35: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 35

TRADE-OFFS FOR AFFORDABILITY

Most people purchasing homes in a suburban location would consider a smaller lot & homebefore sacrificing quality & location

Variation Across Respondents:

► Unsurprisingly, Childless Households & Mature Families most likely to trade space for quality

► While Young & Intermediate Families are still more likely to trade space for quality, fewer households would consider it given their large family sizes

Quality & Location > Lot & Home Size

9%

21%

37%

49%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Less desirable location

Lower qualityfinishes/appliances

Smaller home

Smaller lot

Percent of Respondents That Would Consider Trade-Off

Page 36: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 36

MOST POPULAR NUMBER OF BEDROOMS

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

One

Two

Three

Four

Five or more

55+ 35-54 <35

Page 37: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 37

SFA PREFERENCES – SUBURBAN PREFERENCE

► The share of Childless households are much more likely to consider SFA than currently demonstrated living environments suggest

► Young Professionals & Retirees/Seniors demonstrate the largest misalignment

Retirees, seniors households have a strong affinity to consider SFA housing options in suburban settings

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Young FamilyInt. Family

Mature FamilyMiddle Aged Prof.

Family w/ Mature KidsEmpty Nester

Young Prof.Mature Prof.

Retiree/Senior

Likelihood to Consider SFA Housing by Household Segment

Existing Housing Type% Who Would Consider Housing Type

Page 38: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households

#MPCU2019 | 38

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

< 1,500 1,500 - 1,999 2,000 - 2,999 3,000 - 3,999 4,000 +

Current & Desired Home Sizes for Move Down Buyers

Existing Desired

MOVE DOWN BUYERS (55+ ) – BUYER PREFERENCES

Move down buyers are seeking less square footage

Implied Average Current: 2,600 SFDesired: 2,250 SF

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BABY BOOMERS PRIORITIES AMONG TOP AMENITIES

Under 35 35-54 55+

1 Fitness centers, such as weights, yoga studio, trainers, and classes

Fitness centers, such as weights, yoga studio, trainers, and classes Guard/ secured gated entry

2 Guard/ secured gated entry Guard/ secured gated entry Fitness centers, such as weights, yoga studio, trainers, and classes

3 Trails Trails Maintenance free for an additional monthly fee

4 Resort pool (lounge) Resort pool (lounge) Trails

5 Package receiving location / service / Amazon locker Maintenance free for an additional monthly fee Resort pool (lounge)

6 Dog park Dog park Art and culture, such as concerts, food, wine, art, educational trips, etc.

7 Art and culture, such as concerts, food, wine, art, educational trips, etc. Pocket Parks Farmers market

8 Children's pool Art and culture, such as concerts, food, wine, art, educational trips, etc.

Virtual services, such as community intranet, virtual education, etc.

9Sports courts, such as pickleball, bocce, basketall, sports fields, tot lots, tennis

courts, etc.

Sports courts, such as pickleball, bocce, basketall, sports fields, tot lots, tennis courts, etc. Dog park

10 Maintenance free for an additional monthly fee

Package receiving location / service / Amazon locker Lap poolSources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

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Page 42: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households
Page 43: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households
Page 44: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households
Page 45: Marketing to the Baby Boomers One More Time · BABY BOOMERSMARKET 45 million households now or soon to be in the active adult target market (age 55+) Nearly double the households
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DOG PARKS ARE A TOP 10 AMENITY

Source: statista.com

Dog ownership is at an all time high

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2015 2017

Number of Dogs in the US (in millions)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Millenials Generation X Baby Boomers Seniors

Dog Ownership

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MONTHLY HOA FEE PREFERENCE AMONG MPC PREFERRED BUYERS

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

Potential MPC buyers prefer HOA fees to be between $50 and $149 per month.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Nothing Less than $50 $50 to $99 $100 to $149 $150 to $199 $200 to $249 $250 to $299 $300 to $349 $350 to $399 More than $400

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INFLUENCE OF SUSTAINABILITY AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY DESIGN

Source: RCLCO Community & Housing Sustainability

Yes, would be morelikely to purchase

there

Maybe, might bemore likely to

purchase there

No impact onpurchase decision

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

How important is sustainability and environmentally friendly design when thinking about a new home purchase? Would the fact that a community development implemented

sustainable development best practices impact your purchase decision?

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Very important Important Neutral Not Important

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ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS IMPACT ON BUYING A NEW HOME

Sources: RCLCO Consumer Research; 2019 Home Purchaser Data

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Not concerned about the environment

Want environmentally friendly home, and WOULD pay morebecause of the environmental benefits alone

Concerned, but will not affect home purchasing decisions

Want environmentally friendly home, but would NOT pay more

Want environmentally friendly home, and WOULD pay more ONLYIF the investment results in lower utility bills, tax deductions, or…

<35 35-54 55+

Environmental concerns are growing but most consumer would not pay more unless there were energy cost or other savings

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IMPORTANCE OF SUSTAINABILITY AND ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY DESIGN

Source: RCLCO Community & Housing Sustainability

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Very important Important Neutral Not Important

<35 35-54 55+

Sustainability and environmentally friendly designs are important to many 55+ New Home Buyers

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CONCEPT DESCRIPTION GEOGRAPHIC CONTEXT PROMINENT DEVELOPER EXAMPLES

Large StandaloneAAC

Suburban single-family homes for sale in an entirely age-restricted community of 1,000+ units.

Large AACs require a lot of land, often over 500 acres; therefore, these communities are often located in suburban areas with abundant land availability.

• Del Webb• Robson Ranch• Shea Homes

AAC Enclave within Larger MPC

Suburban single-family homes for sale in an age-restricted enclave within a larger MPC with no age restrictions, where the MPC as a whole consists of 1,000+ units.

Large MPC communities require a lot of land, often over 750 acres; therefore, these communities are often located in suburban areas with abundant land availability.

• DMB• Shea Homes • Blenheim• Taylor Morrison

Small AACs Standalone orWithin largerMPC

Single-family homes for sale in an entirely age-restricted AAC with less than 1,000 units in a suburban, urban, or small town setting.

Small AACs require less land and can therefore be located close to small cities, historic downtowns, or traditional suburban areas. A closer in location often serves as an amenity.

• David Weekley• Stephen Alexander Homes• Nathan Carlisle

Resort AACs Destination-oriented single-family homes for sale in age-restricted AACs, with an emphasis on regional recreational assets.

Resort AACs are co-located with recreational assets, such as mountains, beaches, or large lakes to enhance the amenity offerings and project a certain lifestyle image. Typically not located in metroareas.

• Del Webb• Shea Homes • Jones Homes

AACCondominiums

Single-family attached units, or multifamily units in an entirely age-restricted AAC of any size.

AAC Condominiums can locate in both urban and suburban settings. Denser development makes land planning more flexible.

• Beazer• Verona Building Co • Bill Sears

Rental Multifamily AACs

Age-restricted multifamily rental apartments that are often in an urban, or semi-urban setting.

Greystar was an early mover; currently, they have over 20 communities in vibrant urban neighborhoods in major cities.

• Overture

MANY DIFFERENT TYPES OF COMMUNITIES

Sources: RCLCO