market trends and expectations for the uk and …...hetal shah, senior project manager, go ultra low...
TRANSCRIPT
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED SMMT, the ‘S’ symbol and the ‘Driving the motor
industry’ brandline are trademarks of SMMT Ltd
New cars and their powertrains
Market trends and expectations for the UK and globally
24 September 2014
Mike Hawes, Chief Executive, SMMT
Robert Baker, Chief Economist, SMMT
Al Bedwell, Director, Global Powertrain, LMC Automotive
Hetal Shah, Senior Project Manager, Go Ultra Low
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 2
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SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED SMMT, the ‘S’ symbol and the ‘Driving the motor industry’ brandline are trademarks of SMMT Ltd
New cars and powertrains – where next
Robert Baker - SMMT
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SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 4
A chequered past Vehicle specifications, styles & status – real alternatives
Sinclair’s C5 (C10 & C15)
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SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 5
Recent legacy radical change challenging Convincing : needs, ability, willingness and confidence
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SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 6
Firmer footings for the future – at 2014 More car choice, improving connectivity and convenience
PURE ELECTRIC (PI) OTHER ELECTRIC HYBRID
AUDI (2)
BMW (2) BMW (3)
CHEVROLET (1)
CITROEN (1) CITROEN (1)
FERRARI (1)
FORD (1)
HONDA (3)
INFINITI (3)
MIA* (1) LEXUS (5)
MITSUBISHI (1) MITSUBISHI (1) MERCEDES (3)
NISSAN (1) LAND ROVER (2)
PEUGEOT (1) PEUGEOT (2)
PORSCHE* (1) PORSCHE (3)
RENAULT (2)
SMART (2)
TESLA (1)
TOYOTA (1) TOYOTA (4)
VAUXHALL (1)
VOLVO (1)
VolksWagen (1) VolksWagen (1) (= no. of ranges) Based on data to August 2014 = 58% of 2004 AFV volume
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 7
Key initiatives, events and policy (1) Transport, Environment, and vehicle-based taxes
1997 to early 2000’s – voluntary EU CO2 new car reduction agreement
Powershift Programme (EST); Cleaner Vehicles Task Force; Foresight Technology Programmes visions and road maps;
Coventry & Edinburgh trials and ‘dash for gas’ (LPG)
Graduating (CO2) VED and Company Car Tax begins
Fuel Duty escalator embedded . TfL and Congestion Zone
early 2000’s to 2009 – mandatory EC CO2 new car regulations
A new approach to Transport – integrated vision, local focus.
Reporting2006/07: Stern, Eddington and King (electrification)
Road pricing a missing link. Greener Driving campaigns.
Local Transport and Climate Change Acts (2008); DECC born.
Carbon Budgets. Green Economy decarbonising transport
Fuel Duty (on-off escalators); CO2 tax parameters adapt
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 8
Key initiatives, events and policy (2) Transport, Environment, and vehicle-based taxes
2010 to date – new car CO2 target 130gm/km 2015
NAIGT - Automotive Council refreshed technology road
maps. UK Governments Automotive Sector Strategy (2013)
OLEV (1) and ULEV support package(2)
Escalating motoring taxes values now on back-burner
Campaigning continues – go ultra-low 2014
UKH2Mobility. City Car share/hire – Renault/Bollore
2015 to 2020 – new car CO2 target 95gm/km 2021
OLEV (2) and market fermenting (switching converts)
CCT regime tightens further for ULEV
Broader reform(s) of motoring taxes likely
London ULEZ 2020; other local & city-based policies revisited
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 9
UK’s rear view mirror – diesel alternative
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UK new car registrations and fuel types - number of cars
Petrol
Disesel
AFV
AFV - numbers (rhs)
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 10
Current UK trends – work in progress
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35,000 UK Alternatively fuelled cars - number of new registrations
Petrol/gas Petrol/electric Diesel/electric
Petrol/alcohol Electric
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 11
UK trends 2000-2013 – Toyota’s early lead
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35,000 UK Alternatively fuelled cars - number of new registrations
Toyota Toyota Prius HB All
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 12
Trends post 2010 – consistent growth
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5,000
10,000
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20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
rolli
ng y
ear
regis
tratio
n tota
ls
Dec 2007 to date
UK car registrations, all cars, all AFV and Electric in AFV total: rolling year trends monthly from Dec 2007 to date
ALL CARS
AFV
PURE ELECTRIC
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 13
Uncertain road ahead – take-off possibly?
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UK new car registrations fuel types - number of cars in millions
Petrol Disesel AFV AFV - numbers (rhs)
SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 14
Switching and connected future; a slow
burner or major and rapid transformation?
Synthesis of recent studies – RAC Foundation (2013)
Market Shares of new car^ sales
(spatial bases vary, ‘Europe’ typical)
Source: RAC Foundation Report Powering Ahead tables 5.1.2 to 5.1.6: Chapter 5
^ predominantly cars, some light vehicles
EV type 2020
Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) 5% to 20%
Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) 1% to 5%
Range Extended electric vehicles (REEV) 1% to 2%
Battery electric vehicles (BE) 1% to 5%
All Advanced electric vehicles (PHEV + BE) 2% to 10%
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SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED PAGE 15
A chequered past – more varied future real alternatives – uncertain reception
the mix of stable technologies that will gain significant market shares is very circumspect; not just hinging on comparative total ownership costs
Engineering durable, manufacturable, commercially viable – sustainable, scalable supply advantages
Strategically marketed – sustainable differentiation
Campaigning – conviction on the need to change
On-going fiscal aid balancing firmer regulation; enhanced demand management on take-up, use and reuse
Favourable and stable macroeconomic setting with a strong driver from fuel (or carbon) prices
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved.
Hybrid & EV Market Assessment UK Prospects and Projections Oxford, September 2014
Al Bedwell, Director, Global Powertrain, LMC Automotive
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 17
Outline
• Hybrid & EV Definitions
• UK Hybrid & EV Market Development
• OEM Activity
• Drivers
• Outlook
• Powertrain Long-Term View
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 18
MHEV: Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle
• IC & electric motor(s) working in parallel. Not usually able to drive under electric power alone. Electric assistance greater than 5kW, but less than 30kW. Typical figure is 10kW to 15kW.
HAV: Hybrid Air Vehicle
• Similar to MHEV but rather than recovered energy being stored in a battery, it is stored as compressed air in a cylinder. It can be released as required to boost performance & efficiency
FHEV: Full Hybrid Electric Vehicle
• IC & electric motor(s) working in parallel. Can be driven for short distances under electric power alone. Electric assistance greater than 30kW. Typical electric assistance: 60kW- 165kW.
PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
• Full hybrid electric vehicle with larger battery pack which can be recharged from the electricity grid thereby enabling a longer electric-only driving range of 30m (50Km) or more.
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle
• There is no IC engine. Relies on energy stored in battery to provide propulsion via electric motor(s). Recharged from electricity grid or other source of electricity.
EREV: Extended Range Electric Vehicle
• A battery electric vehicle with an on-board charger (comprising IC engine + generator) for the battery pack to enable a longer range than BEV. The IC and electric motor(s) operate in series.
FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
• Similar to BEV but the battery is replaced by a fuel cell. The fuel (typically hydrogen) is processed on-board in a fuel cell stack to generate electricity for powering electric motor(s).
Hybrid
EV
Plug-in
Non Plug-in
Non Plug-in
Hybrid & EV Definitions
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 19
Outline
• Hybrid & EV Definitions
• UK Hybrid & EV Market Development
• OEM Activity
• Drivers
• Outlook
• Powertrain Long-Term View
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 20
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014H1
BEV EREV FHEV MHEV PHEV
UK Car Market: Hybrid & EV Share by Technology Type
• 2014 has seen a significant uptick in interest
• However it is the ‘traditional’ hybrid sector that is driving recent growth
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
UK: Hybrid & EV Demand Trend
23
,30
0 (
hal
f ye
ar)
16
,30
0 3
2,7
00
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 21
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
UK France Germany USA China Norway Japan
BEV EREV FHEV MHEV PHEV
Hybrid & EV Share of Car* Sales: Selected Global Markets
Some Global Context
Source: LMC Global Hybrid & EV Forecast; * US share is of LV market (cars and trucks)
• UK position is a result of incentives, OEM mix & alternatives to hybrid & EV
• Norway and Japan show what can happen!
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 22
Outline
• Hybrid & EV Definitions
• UK Hybrid & EV Market Development
• OEM Activity
• Drivers
• Outlook
• Powertrain Long-Term View
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 23
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
BM
W
Da
imle
r
FCA
Ford
GM
Ho
nd
a
Hy
un
da
i
JLR
Mit
su
Oth
er
PS
A
R-N
Te
sla
To
yo
ta
Vo
lvo
VW
BEV EREV FHEV PHEV FCEV MHEV HAV
Nu
mb
er
of
Hyb
rid
s &
EV
s A
vaila
ble
Major OEMs: Hybrid & EV Model Assumptions by end 2014
• We currently see an even split between plug-in and non plug-in sectors
• The full-hybrid sector makes up the biggest component
UK: OEM Product Development, Strategy
Breakdown Total models: 60 BEV: 15 EREV: 1 FHEV: 23 PHEV: 14 FCEV: 1 MHEV: 6 HAV: 0 Plug-in: 30 Non Plug-in: 30
Source: LMC Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 24
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
2014 2015
FHEV PHEV BEV
Shar
e o
f V
W G
rou
p L
V A
sse
mb
ly (
%)
VW Group near-term PV Hybrid & EV Plans
• More than 65% of 2015 VW group hybrid & EV output will be PHEV
• There seems to be a cautious approach to the BEV sector
An OEM View on Electrification
Total: 66,000 units
Total: 33,000 units
0.7
% o
f g
rou
p o
utp
ut
Source: LMC Automotive European Engine & Transmission Forecast
1.3
% o
f g
rou
p o
utp
ut
Hybrid & EV models: BEV E-Up! E-Golf FHEV Q5 hybrid A6 hybrid A8 hybrid Cayenne hybrid Touareg hybrid PHEV A3 e-tron Q7 e-tron Panamera S e-hybrid 1-litre (XL1) Golf GTE
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
BM
W
Da
imle
r
FCA
Ford
GM
Ho
nd
a
Hy
un
da
i
JLR
Mit
su
Oth
er
PS
A
R-N
Te
sla
To
yo
ta
Vo
lvo
VW
BEV EREV FHEV PHEV FCEV MHEV HAV
Major OEMs: Hybrid & EV Model Assumptions by end 2017
• Plug-in grows faster than non plug-in (especially in the premium segments)
• Most OEMs will offer three or more technologies
UK: OEM Product Development, Strategy
Breakdown Total models: 137 BEV: 26 EREV: 1 FHEV: 36 PHEV: 58 FCEV: 5 MHEV: 7 HAV: 4 Plug-in: 85 Non Plug-in: 52
Source: LMC Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Nu
mb
er
of
Hyb
rid
s &
EV
s A
vaila
ble
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 26
Outline
• Hybrid & EV Definitions
• UK Hybrid & EV Market Development
• OEM Activity
• Drivers
• Outlook
• Powertrain Long-Term View
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 27
Drivers • Global warming - CO2 mandate
• Air quality concerns
• Desire for sustainable mobility
• Direct/indirect incentives
• Electric operation seen as luxury feature
• Opportunity to reconfigure car architecture
• Image
• Technology enablers (vehicle & charging)
• Political will
• Halo effect for vehicle maker
• Roadmap to future technology
• Possible lower operating costs
• Reduced fuel costs
• Better performance
• Autonomous driving
UK: Why Choose Hybrid & EV (or Why Not)?
Headwinds • Model choice
• Battery capacity, range (EV)
• Recharging time (EV)
• Battery cost (EV)
• Charging infrastructure (EV)
• Only partial solution to sustainability
• Well-to-wheel gain may only be 10% over IC
• EVs may raise emissions in some areas
• Possible reduced utility
• Industry is massively invested in IC
• Battery recycling?
• Lower residual values?
• Fear of change
• Compromised design to offset cost of PT
• Question mark over EV residual values
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 28
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
low base highIC Optimisation Hybrid & EV Vehicle Measures
Inputs to 95gm/km: Scenarios • Many factors will play a part in
meeting CO2 targets
• We can make assumptions regarding the contribution of the combustion engine and transmission, the vehicle itself and of electrification
• Vehicle measures include:
• Segment changes • Trends in vehicle mass • Aerodynamics • Rolling resistance • Ability to coast • …
Source: LMC Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
Closing the CO2 Gap: What Technology Mix?
127 gm/km
(2013)
95 gm/km
(2021)
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 29
Outline
• Hybrid & EV Definitions
• UK Hybrid & EV Market Development
• OEM Activity
• Drivers
• Outlook
• Powertrain Long-Term View
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2013 2024 low 2024 base 2024 high
BEV EREV FCEV FHEV MHEV PHEV HAV
Hyb
rid
& E
V C
ar S
ale
s (‘
00
0s)
Source: LMC Automotive Global Hybrid & EV Forecast
2024 UK Outlook by Technology Type
• If our assumptions are correct, this trend will suffice for 2021 FE targets
• Battery breakthrough, lack of IC progress will increase the hybrid & EV mix
UK: Hybrid & EV Forecast by Technology
210,000 sales 8.3% share 71% plug-in 377,000 sales
14.9% share 75% plug-in
260,000 sales 10.3% share 69% plug-in
33,000 sales 1.4% share 12% plug-in
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 31
Outline
• Hybrid & EV Definitions
• UK Hybrid & EV Market Development
• OEM Activity
• Drivers
• Outlook
• Powertrain Long-Term View
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 32
hybrid
1.3% cng/lpg/flex
0.02%plug-in
0.2%
pure diesel IC
49.8%pure gasoline IC
48.8%
UK Car Market by Fuel & Technology: 2.26mn units
• Pure IC (gasoline/diesel/other) has 98.5% of the new car market
• When will this dominance end?
UK: 2013 Technology/Fuel Mix
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 33
hybrid
3.2%
cng/lpg/flex
3.0%plug-in
7.1%fuel cell
0.4%
pure diesel IC
38.8%
pure gasoline IC
47.5%
UK Car Market by Fuel & Technology: 2.54mn units
• By 2024, pure IC still has around 85% of the UK car market
• But hybrid & EV is making significant inroads
UK: 2024 Technology/Fuel Mix – Base Case
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 34
hybrid
8.0%
cng/lpg/flex
5.0%
plug-in
25.0%
fuel cell
4.0%
pure diesel IC
23.0%
pure gasoline IC
35.0%
UK Car Market by Fuel & Technology: circa 3mn units
• Pure IC still the dominant sector, but down to below 60%
• Electrification is the big winner with 37% market share
UK: 2030 Technology/Fuel Mix – Food for Thought
www.lmc-auto.com © 2014 LMC Automotive Limited, All Rights Reserved. 35
Thank You
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Go Ultra Low 2015 Business Case
What is Go Ultra Low?
37
Normal not novel Campaign to raise awareness,
interest and understanding of
ULEVs, establishing ULEVs as
‘normal not novel’
One stop shop Creating a trusted, honest
gateway for ULEV information,
cutting through consumer
uncertainty and advice variability
Collaborative Pioneering a new joint govt and
multi manufacturer consortium
approach
Increased sales Widening the sales funnel for
VMs and increasing the number
of ULEVs sold, including fleets
• Increase in
campaign reach
• Increase in positive
engagement with
campaign
Campaign KPIs
38
Increase in
awareness
of Go Ultra Low
Increase in
acceptance
of ULEVs
Improvement in
perceptions
of ULEVs
Improvement in
campaign
performance
metrics
39
Highly Successful Campaign
40
75% of new car buyers have taken action as a result of
seeing the campaign – seeking out more information,
speaking to friends or visiting OEM website
50% of campaign recognisers are thinking about buying
an ULEV, compared to 20% of the sample of all new
car buyers
45% campaign recognition among those who consumed
relevant media - excellent for campaign level of spend
17% reduced barriers to purchase (around speed,
performance and cost)
Increased understanding of ULEVs within target audience
(e.g. 27% decrease in strongly disagrees that “there are
lots of chargepoints”)
PAGE 41 SOCIETY OF MOTOR MANUFACTURERS AND TRADERS LIMITED
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