market talk - asia-plusresearch.asiaplus.co.th/asps/web_research/doc/2018/06/mt... · 2018. 6....

8
Market Talk Investment Strategy Research Division English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities Company cannot be held responsible for translation inaccuracies. ASIA PLUS SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015 The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities. SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015" Investment Strategy Friday, June 29, 2018 While external risk has remained, internal risk erupted as the State Financial and Fiscal Discipline Act of 2018 requires that a subcommittee be established to filter government investments in one more process, which would delay state investments. We downgrade the contractor sector to UNDERWEIGHT. This is another factor to depress SET Index under 1,600 pts. We recommend domestic plays with low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, stocks that are safe amid the rate uptrend (BBL, KBANK), public utility plays (RATCH, TTW, EASTW), and food and export plays that have benefited from the weak THB (CPF, TU, GFPT). Top picks are RATCH(FV@B61), DTAC(FV@B68), and GFPT(FV@B14). SET Index 1,599.54 Change (pts) -19.12 Market Cap (Million B) 56,975 SET Index falls below 1,600 pts!! SET Index was still volatile yesterday, opening up 5 pts but finally closing at 1,599.54 pts, plummeting 19.12 pts or 1.18% with trading value of B57bn. Almost every sector went down, especially big-cap banking play SCB (-4.47%) and ICT plays TRUE and DTAC. BEAUTY plunged 12.32% and made a ten-month low of B12.10. PSH fell 4.93%. Energy plays PTT and PTTEP stood tall in the morning but fell and weakened the market in the afternoon. SET Index today is still expected to fall under 1,600 pts. In addition to trade war, SET Index would be hindered as government investment would be delayed by the new fiscal discipline act, which became effective in April but was just announced yesterday; fiscal policy committee has to be formed to deliberate projects. Indonesia's third policy rate hike likely. Thailand's June inflation rate to reach 1.72% Inflation rates worldwide have been rising as crude oil prices stood above US$70, thus forcing many countries to use stricter monetary policies. At the Bank Indonesia (BI) meeting today, Indonesia's interest rate is projected to be raised for the third time this year by 0.25% to 5% (probably the Asian country with biggest policy rate hike) after 1) IDR weakened 8.03% from the strongest point on January 25, 2018 (thus resulting in more expensive imported goods) and 2) May inflation rate was as high as 3.23%. Earlier, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hiked the interest rate two times (0.5% in total) to 3.5% after the inflation rate jumped to 4.5%yoy, exceeding the BSP's target of 2-4%. In January 2018, Malaysia already raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25% (first time in three years) after the inflation rate accelerated to 3.7%yoy In late May, India increased the interest rate by 0.25% to 6.25% (first time in four years) after the inflation rate jumped to 4.58% in April from 4.2% in March (higher than 4.0% targeted). As a result of rising crude oil price, Thailand's inflation rate is expected to rise from 1.49% in May to 1.72% in June (announced on July 2), 1.8% in July, 1.9% in August, 2% in September, and 2.35% in December, versus the benchmark interest rate of only 1.5%. At the four remaining MPC meetings this year, easing monetary policies that lasts for Net Buy and Sell by Investor Type (Million B) Foreign -2,123.28 Proprietary 1,837.00 Institutional -1,642.72 Retail 1,928.99 Porranee Thongyen License No: 004146 Therdsak Thaveeteeratham License No: 004132 Pobchai Phatrawit License No: 052647 Paradorn Tiaranapramote License No: 075365 Takit Chardcherdsak License No: 087636 Yothin Pukongnin Quantitative Analyst Assistant Jerdjaras Kaewkua Analyst Assistant Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn Economist Assistant

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Page 1: Market Talk - Asia-Plusresearch.asiaplus.co.th/asps/web_research/doc/2018/06/mt... · 2018. 6. 29. · Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division almost seven years is projected

Market Talk Investment Strategy Research Division

English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities Company cannot be held responsible for translation inaccuracies.

ASIA PLUS SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015

The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities.

SECURITIES CO.,LTD. Broker#8. Research Protection @Copyright 2015"

Investment Strategy

Friday, June 29, 2018

While external risk has remained, internal risk erupted as the State Financial and Fiscal Discipline Act of 2018 requires that a subcommittee be established to filter government investments in one more process, which would delay state investments. We downgrade the contractor sector to UNDERWEIGHT. This is another factor to depress SET Index under 1,600 pts. We recommend domestic plays with low P/E ratio and high dividend yield, stocks that are safe amid the rate uptrend (BBL, KBANK), public utility plays (RATCH, TTW, EASTW), and food and export plays that have benefited from the weak THB (CPF, TU, GFPT). Top picks are RATCH(FV@B61), DTAC(FV@B68), and GFPT(FV@B14).

SET Index 1,599.54 Change (pts) -19.12 Market Cap (Million B) 56,975

SET Index falls below 1,600 pts!!

SET Index was still volatile yesterday, opening up 5 pts but finally closing at 1,599.54 pts, plummeting 19.12 pts or 1.18% with trading value of B57bn. Almost every sector went down, especially big-cap banking play SCB (-4.47%) and ICT plays TRUE and DTAC. BEAUTY plunged 12.32% and made a ten-month low of B12.10. PSH fell 4.93%. Energy plays PTT and PTTEP stood tall in the morning but fell and weakened the market in the afternoon.

SET Index today is still expected to fall under 1,600 pts. In addition to trade war, SET Index would be hindered as government investment would be delayed by the new fiscal discipline act, which became effective in April but was just announced yesterday; fiscal policy committee has to be formed to deliberate projects.

Indonesia's third policy rate hike likely. Thailand's June inflation rate to reach 1.72%

Inflation rates worldwide have been rising as crude oil prices stood above US$70, thus forcing many countries to use stricter monetary policies.

At the Bank Indonesia (BI) meeting today, Indonesia's interest rate is projected to be raised for the third time this year by 0.25% to 5% (probably the Asian country with biggest policy rate hike) after 1) IDR weakened 8.03% from the strongest point on January 25, 2018 (thus resulting in more expensive imported goods) and 2) May inflation rate was as high as 3.23%.

Earlier, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hiked the interest rate two times (0.5% in total) to 3.5% after the inflation rate jumped to 4.5%yoy, exceeding the BSP's target of 2-4%.

In January 2018, Malaysia already raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.25% (first time in three years) after the inflation rate accelerated to 3.7%yoy

In late May, India increased the interest rate by 0.25% to 6.25% (first time in four years) after the inflation rate jumped to 4.58% in April from 4.2% in March (higher than 4.0% targeted).

As a result of rising crude oil price, Thailand's inflation rate is expected to rise from 1.49% in May to 1.72% in June (announced on July 2), 1.8% in July, 1.9% in August, 2% in September, and 2.35% in December, versus the benchmark interest rate of only 1.5%. At the four remaining MPC meetings this year, easing monetary policies that lasts for

Net Buy and Sell by Investor Type (Million B) Foreign -2,123.28 Proprietary 1,837.00 Institutional -1,642.72 Retail 1,928.99

Porranee Thongyen

License No: 004146 Therdsak Thaveeteeratham

License No: 004132 Pobchai Phatrawit License No: 052647

Paradorn Tiaranapramote License No: 075365

Takit Chardcherdsak License No: 087636 Yothin Pukongnin

Quantitative Analyst Assistant Jerdjaras Kaewkua

Analyst Assistant Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn

Economist Assistant

Page 2: Market Talk - Asia-Plusresearch.asiaplus.co.th/asps/web_research/doc/2018/06/mt... · 2018. 6. 29. · Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division almost seven years is projected

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

almost seven years is projected to come to an end. If Thailand's policy rate is raised too late, THB would weaken further, resulting in costlier imported goods and inflation.

US to limit Chinese investment in U.S. tech firms tomorrow

Worldwide markets are still concerned about trade war. The US will announce additional non-tariff protectionism policy tomorrow (June 30), restricting companies that are at least 25% held by Chinese people from investing in U.S. significant technology industries (auto, robotics, and aerospace), which are also China's targeted industries under its economic development plan (a.k.a. Made in China 2025), to stop China from acquiring U.S. tech. The US already imposed 25% import tariff on Chinese goods worth US$50bn (out of US$250bn announced), considering U.S. import from China of US$505bn in 2017. Meanwhile, China can only impose retaliatory import tariff hike worth only US$50bn, considering its import from the US of only US$105bn.

US-China trade war tension would remain as long as the US is still hostile. This would adversely impact both U.S. and Chinese manufacturers and consumers; goods will cost more, resulting in higher inflation rates. This will also indirectly pressure Asian exporters of raw material to China (supply chain), more severely in 2019. Otherwise, if the U.S. becomes less hostiles, all the situation would revert back.

New fiscal discipline act slows down government investment, hurting contractors

Biddings of government investment projects would be delayed. Under the new Fiscal Discipline Act B.E. 2561 (2018) effective on April 19, projects must be approved by fiscal policy committee (to deliberate their fiscal efficiency and potential risk) before they can be submitted for cabinet approval and biddings can start.

Some mega investment projects valued B470bn (out of B800bn planned) are projected to be available for bidding this years; they are already approved by the fiscal policy committee or the cabinet:

1. High-speed railway linking three airports worth B236,700m - Request for Proposal (RFP) envelopes are available for purchase until July 9. RFP submission is available until November 12. The bid winners will be announced on November 13.

2. Dao Khanong – Rama 3 highway worth B31,244m - The Expressway Authority of Thailand (EXAT) is making a conclusion before putting Request for Proposal (RFP) on sale.

3. Bang Pa-In – Nakhon Ratchasima and Bang Yai – Kanchanaburi motorways worth B13,000m - The Department of Highways are preparing for the bids.

4. Mass rapid transit Purple Line (Tao Poon - Rat Burana) worth B101,112m - Ready for bid in 4Q18

5. Thailand-China high-speed railway phase 2-3 worth B12,700m - Approved.

Although biddings of government projects are delayed, contractors' 2018-2019 earnings would not be affected severely. Big-cap contractors have as high as B480bn backlog to generate revenue for the next 2-4 years. Plus, they also have private projects, e.g. condominiums, power plants, and petrochemical plants.

We still estimate the contractor sector's 2018 net profit to grow 601%yoy (from a weak base in 2017). However, since the prices are mainly driven on progresses on biddings of

Page 3: Market Talk - Asia-Plusresearch.asiaplus.co.th/asps/web_research/doc/2018/06/mt... · 2018. 6. 29. · Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division almost seven years is projected

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

government projects, this issue would have negative sentiment on contractor stocks, making them less favorable.

We downgrade this sector from NEUTRAL to UNDERWEIGHT while revising fair value of each stock. Some stocks still have favorably solid fundamentals and backlog: STEC(FV@B25) and SEAFCO([email protected]).

Govt investment possibly get delayed, but private companies are increasing capacity

Although state investments (around 6% of GDP) would get delayed, private investments (around 17% of GDP) have signaled continuous recovery. Exercises of BOI privilege in 1Q18 increased 247% to B205bn, from only B59bn in 1Q17, making up 28.5% of BOI privilege exercise target in 2018 of around B720bn. At the same time, the industrial business has used increasing utilization rate for four quarters, over 80% of its total capacity, and further capacity expansion is possible in the future such as for the automotive, petroleum, motorcycle, computer, and electronic device industries. As government investments account for a smaller part to the country’s GDP than private investments, impact from the investment delay is insignificantly.

Source: ASPS

NBTC orders DTAC to temporarily turn off 2300 MHz service on BTS routes

SET-listed companies have been pressured by bad news. DTAC has plummeted for many days despite good news about 900 MHz and 1800 MHz bids, which would ensure DTAC's competitively efficient service. BTS faced signal problems due to frequency interference caused by the 2300 MHz bandwidth, which is recently utilized by DTAC. The company just signed a seven-year (2018-2025) lease contract with TOT at the cost of B4.5bn/year; after the contract ends, the bandwidth will be transferred back to the NBTC, the owner and the regulation of frequency in Thailand. DTAC's 2300 MHz frequency is close to the 2400 MHz frequency (near the upper edge of 2370 MHz frequency) used by BTS for free.

The NBTC ordered BTS to use 2400 MHz frequency (2480-2495 MHz) and install signal filters (to reduce interference) to solve signal problem, which would be complete in June

Business Capacity Expansion Plan of Listed Companies

Sugar Most sugar producers still do not have a plan to increase production capacity because they are able to conduct sugar crane crushing sooner (normally in early December – early April) in response to the sugar crane output in 2018 which has increased 45%yoy to 135 million tons.

Meat processing CPF : CPF has a plan to expand its production capacity both locally and overseas with an investment budget of B25bn/year such as chicken slaughtering factory, ready-made food factory, and chicken farm.

GFPT : GFPT has a plan to expand its production capacity continuously via both GFPT and its subsidiary McKey (GFPT holding 49% stake) such as cooked-chicken factory, chicken slaughtering factory, and chicken farm.

TFG : TGF is opening a new cooked-chicken factory with a capacity of 30 million tons/year in July 2018, aiming to enter a cooked-chicken market as an addition to the current export of frozen chicken.

BR : BF plans to open a new duck slaughter factory with a capacity of 15 million birds/year in Sa Kaeo Province. A commercial run is projected in 2H19, which would mount its total capacity to 39 million birds/year.

Automotive Most automotive listed companies are part producers, which have not yet used their full capacity (SAT, AH, and IHL), except for STANLY, which has a plan to expand its Lamb 7 factory, with a LED production capacity of 16 million piece/year, to increase the production area from 6,000 sqm to 16,000 sqm and to have a new mold factory built, with an investment of around B1bn, by late 2018-2019.

Petrochemical TOP : TOP has a plan to expand its production capacity with an investment of US$382m between 2018-2020.

PTTGC : PTTGC has a plan to expand the production capacity of olefins (PO/Polyols) with an investment of US$2bn (still not including a maintenance budget of US$1bn for the next three years).

IRPC : IRPC has a plan to expand the production capacity of aromatics (MARS) with an investment of around US$1bn by 2022.

Electronic parts Most electronic parts operators in Thailand have already expanded its capacity over the past few years. Only SVI has just opened a new factory in Cambodia in June to produce simple products which focus on man labor such as cable.

Page 4: Market Talk - Asia-Plusresearch.asiaplus.co.th/asps/web_research/doc/2018/06/mt... · 2018. 6. 29. · Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division almost seven years is projected

Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

29, 2018. At the same time, DTAC must turn off 2300 MHz service on BTS routes for two days, affecting its 4G services in some specific areas; 4G service on other spectrum (1800 MHz and 2100 MHz) is still available.

We maintain DTAC's forecast and fair value, expecting it to win new licenses, which would help reduce risk of losing subscribers during a transition, and outperform peers again. We reiterate BUY.

Foreign net sell in all five Asian markets

Foreign funds still possessed a net selling position in Asian markets by US$589m yesterday (15th day). All five markets were sold net: South Korea at US$241m (after a day of net buying), Taiwan at US$228m (12th day), Indonesia at US$49m (tenth day), the Philippines at US$7m (second day), and Thailand at US$64m or B2.12bn (second day). Local institutions sold B1.65bn net, resulting in week-to-date (WTD) net selling of B412m.

For the bond market, foreigners reversed to sell B2.39bn net (eighth day). Thailand's ten-year bond yield stayed around 2.77%, versus U.S. ten-year bond yield of 2.84%.

Monthly Foreign Fund Flow in Asia Date Indonesia Philippines S. Korea Taiwan Thailand Total

2018 (YTD) -3,557 -1,224 -4,083 -8,974 -5,599 -23,438 January 2018 132 45 1,963 2,856 -177 4,819 February 2018 -760 -296 -2,598 -3,480 -1,310 -8,444 March 2018 -1,085 -371 -449 -2,089 -352 -4,345 April 2018 -750 -171 -1,213 -2,873 -684 -5,691 May 2018 -460 -174 -262 -1,064 -1,620 -3,580 June 2018 -634 -258 -1,525 -2,324 -1,456 -6,197 Unit: Million US$

Nine top defensive picks amid institutional selling pressure

Foreign fund flow were previous the main driving force, having more impact on SET Index more than institutional funds; around 2005 - mid-March 2013, the correlation between foreign trading value and SET Index was as high as 0.8 (the closer to 1, the closer correlation). However, foreign selling pressure has been seen since mid-March 2013, where it peaked at B560bn (market value), marking a YTD cumulative net selling of B180bn; institutional funds have become the main SET Index driver since then. Notably, the correlation between institutional trading value and SET Index has increased continuously for the past 1-2 years, from -0.82 (2005 - mid-March 2013) to 0.93 at present.

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Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

Trading Value at Market Value of Local Funds, Foreign Funds vs SET Index

Source: ASPS, SET (as of June 26, 2018)

Meanwhile, negative sentiment worldwide have been pressuring global markets (including SET Index). Institutional funds' cash holding has increased from the normal level of 2-3% of portfolio to 4.4% at present (as of end-April 2018).

Many stocks that are popular among institutional funds already rallied and have high P/E ratio; if their earnings are not strong as expected, they are very likely to be sold to take profit. In one year and a half (2017 - YTD), while SET Index went up only 5.3% (as of June 26, 2018), popular stocks among funds (more than 4% held by institutional funds) rallied robustly: GPSC (+88.6%), ERW (+47.8%), ASAP (+47.1%), COM7 (+33.6%), M (+28.6%), and BEAUTY (+23.1%)

We recommend stocks with solid fundamentals that are less than 3% held by institutional funds and already fell more than SET Index this year (YTD): MINT, KBANK, TCAP, SIRI, ANAN, JWD, EPG, STEC, and TPIPL). We recommend buying contractor stocks on weakness; they would be pressured for the short term as fiscal discipline act would delay government projects: the fiscal policy committee has to be formed to deliberate government projects.

Laggard, less popular stocks among funds with solid fundamentals

Source : ASPS / SET (as of June 26, 2018) Note : Percentage held by funds is based on latest major shareholders as disclosed by the SET

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

-400

-200

-

200

400

600

800

01-2

005

07-2

005

01-2

006

07-2

006

01-2

007

07-2

007

01-2

008

07-2

008

01-2

009

07-2

009

01-2

010

07-2

010

01-2

011

07-2

011

01-2

012

07-2

012

01-2

013

07-2

013

01-2

014

07-2

014

01-2

015

07-2

015

01-2

016

07-2

016

01-2

017

07-2

017

01-2

018

Cumulative Foreign Net Buy (at Market Value) Cumulative Institutional Net Buy (at Market Value) SET Index (RHS)

Billion Baht Pts

Highest foreign net buy at

B46 bn (Mar 1 , 2013).

CorrelationForeign vs SET Index = 0.80Institutional vs SET Index = -0.82 Jan 2005 mid Mar 2013

CorrelationForeign vs SET = 0.45Institutional vs SET = -0.19Mid Mar 2013 Mid Oct 2016

CorrelationForeign vs SET = -0.62Institutional vs SET = 0.93 Mid Oct 2016 Mid Jun 2018

Local institution's cumulative

net buy of B4 0bn (mid Mar

2016 - mid Jun 2018)

2.7 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.00.0 0.0

-24.00

-14.22-8.97

-16.81 -17.29

-47.11

-31.42-27.52

-12.75-7.07

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

MINT TCAP STEC KBANK ANAN JWD EPG SIRI TPIPL SET

YTD (RHS)

% %

% Held by Funds YTD Return (rhs)

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Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

SET vs Sector Return 2017 SET vs Sector Return 2018 YTD

Source : ASPS Research Source : ASPS Research

42.4%

37.2%

33.2%

29.7%

22.2%

21.1%

19.3%

15.8%

15.3%

13.6%

11.4%

6.5%

-1.0%

-3.0%

-6.9%

-14.2%

-14.3%

-15.4%

-15.8%

-16.1%

-30% -10% 10% 30% 50%

PETRO

TRANS

TOURISM

AUTO

PROP

COMM

ENERG

MEDIA

BANK

SET

ICT

FIN

FOOD

CONMAT

HELTH

CONS

STEELS

ETRON

INSUR

AGRI

5.6%

-2.3%

-5.1%

-5.1%

-6.1%

-7.9%

-8.6%

-8.7%

-8.8%

-9.8%

-10.5%

-14.1%

-15.9%

-16.5%

-17.2%

-18.5%

-18.7%

-20.9%

-21.6%

-23.8%

-30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%

HELTH

ENERG

FIN

PETRO

AUTO

TRANS

PROP

COMM

SET

INSUR

ICT

BANK

CONMAT

AGRI

TOURISM

FOOD

STEELS

MEDIA

ETRON

CONS

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Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division

Market Talk Top Picks

Source: ASPS Research

StartDate Avg. Cost Last

194.5

193.5

0.00% 10.54 1.06 4.73

Safe haven amid SET fluctuation, with only 0.33x beta. Dividend

yield can be expected over 4.5%p.a. RATCH is still in SET50 and

SET100 lists in 2H18.

RATCH 20-Jun-18 61.00 10% 51.50 51.50

110.91 3.15

10.18 0.86

-3.40% 11.80 1.21 2.37KBANK 04-Jun-18 227.17 10% 196.17

26-Jun-18 68.00 10%

GFPT

BBL 30-May-18 220.00

27-Jun-18

11.07

14.00

12.56

10%

SPF 28-Feb-18

25-Jun-18 10% 11.20

12.40 12.70 1.13

StocksPER

2018F

Dividend

Yield Fair Value Weight

POPF 13.70 1.2313.60 8.09

Price Accumulated

ReturnStrategist CommentPBV 2018F

0.74%Its PF/REIT provides over 7% yield p.a., so they are safe haven amid

the market fluctuation.

Earnings have gradually improved thanks to a high season of chicken

exports since 2Q18 and chicken exports to China, boosting total

export volume. Weak THB would also lead to better net profit.

5.33 30.97 2.42%

-0.13% 14.50 1.99 6.65Its PF/REIT has over 6%p.a dividend yield. Earnings are projected to

remain strong thanks to robust tourism in Thailand.

192.7520% 194.50

23.2330% 23.20

Share price has moderately reflected bad news and there is still

benefit from the interest rate uptrend. Top pick of bank sector. 3.90

189.50

0.63

Share price already reflected a decline in fee income and there is still

benefit from the interest rate uptrend.

0.91%

DTAC

Accumulated returns Accumulated returns since beginning of the year

Accumulated returns since our recommendation Accumulated contribution returns since beginning of the year

38.75 36.00

NBTC revised spectrum bid conditions, good for DTAC the most. If it

gets the 900 MHz spectrum, it will ease the problem of having no

shortwave frequency after the concession terminates. DTAC also has

more chance to join a 1800 MHz spectrum bid, which will help

alleviate risk of losing subscribers.

-7.10%

2.4%

0.9%

0.7%

0.0%

-0.1%

-3.4%

-7.1%

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

GFPT

BBL

POPF

RATCH

SPF

KBANK

DTAC

2.3%2.0%

1.2%1.0%

0.7%0.6%

0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%

0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%

0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.1%

-0.2%-0.3%

-0.3%-0.6%

-0.9%-1.0%

-1.2%-1.2%

-1.8%-3.5%

-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

0.10%

-2.44%

-0.77%

-8.79%-7.38%

-1.18%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

YTD MTD -1D

Portfolio SET Index

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Ja

n-1

8

Fe

b-1

8

Ma

r-1

8

Ap

r-1

8

May-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Portfolio SET

Page 8: Market Talk - Asia-Plusresearch.asiaplus.co.th/asps/web_research/doc/2018/06/mt... · 2018. 6. 29. · Market Talk Investment Strategy | Research Division almost seven years is projected

Equity Calendar

Research DivisionJune 29, 2018

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday25 26 27 28 29

New listing - Derivatives Warrant New listing - Derivatives Warrant New listing - Warrant New listing - Derivatives Warrant Co's name changeCBG07C1812A 50m units @B1.01 BANP01C1812A 105.51m units @B1.00 PDI-W1 75.327m units B10.00 par AMAT13C1812A 120m units @B1.00 Sherwood Chemical (SWC) >

BANP01C1812B 106.02m units @B1.00 DTAC13C1812A 120m units @B1.00 Sherwood Corporation (SWC)XW BANP01P1812A 59.99m units @B1.00 New listing - Derivatives Warrant DTAC13P1812A 120m units @B1.00

SIMAT 12 existing : 1SIMAT-W4 @free BANP01P1812B 93.25m units @B1.00 IRPC07C1812A 50m units @B1.00 EA13C1812A 120m units @B1.00 ConversionBPP01P1811A 60m units @B1.00 PTT07C1812A 50m units @B1.00 SCB13C1812A 120m units @B1.00 7UP-W2 1.0568:1w @B1.1827

Conversion CKP01C1812A 85.04m units @B1.00 SAWA07C1812A 50m units @B1.00 SCB13P1812A 120m units @B1.00 ACC-W1 1:1w @B1.25

AS-W1 1:1w @B2.00 CKP01C1812B 95.33m units @B1.00 SCC07C1812A 50m units @B1.00 SCC13C1901A 120m units @B1.00 AJA-W1 1.30972:1w @B1.527

STAR-W3 1:1w @B4.00 CPAL01C1901A 62.94m units @B1.00 TOP07C1812A 50m units @B1.00 TRUE13C1812A 120m units @B1.00 ATP30-W1 1:1w @B0.85

WHA-W1 10.2396:1w @B3.4181 CPAL01C1901B 54.25m units @B1.00 TPI07C1812A 50m units @B1.00 GPSC28C1811A 50m units @B1.00 BSM-W2 1.021:1w @B0.489

CPAL01P1901A 47.72m units @B1.12 BH24C1902A 50m units @B1.00 KCE28C1811A 118m units @B1.00 BTS-W3 1:1w @B12.00New shares trading CPAL01P1901B 44.19m units @B1.00 CENT24C1901A 50m units @B1.00 PTT28C1811A 100m units @B1.00 CEN-W4 1:1w @B2.00

S5013C1809C 100m units IVL01C1812A 83.84m units @B1.00 MC24C1812A 50m units @B1.00 PTT28P1811A 67m units @B1.00 CIG-W7 1:1w @B2.00

IVL01C1812B 67.59m units @B1.00 MINT24C1901A 50m units @B1.00 S5028C1809B 72m units @B1.00 CKP-W1 1:1w @B6.00

IVL01C1812A 57.13m units @B1.00 PTT24C1812A 50m units @B1.00 SCB28C1812A 72m units @B1.00 CSC-P 1:1

IVL01P1812B 73.52m units @B1.00 SCC24C1901A 50m units @B1.00 SCC28C1812A 98m units @B1.00 DIGI-W1 0.622:1w @B2.41

MINT01P1901A 80.29m units @B1.00 SGP24C1902A 50m units @B1.00 DIGI-W2 1:1w @B7.50QH01P1801A 79.47m units @B1.00 SPRC24C1903A 50m units @B1.00 XD EIC-W2 2.32054:1w @B1.00

SIRI01P1901A 58.98m units @B1.00 THAI24C1901A 50m units @B1.00 TTTM @B1.00 EIC-W3 2.32054:1w @B1.00

STA01C1812A 87.38m units @B1.00 EIC-W4 1:1w @B0.15STA01C1812B 89.18m units @B1.00 Conversion Conversion FOCUS-W2 1:1w @B1.80

TASC01P1810A 64.24m units @B1.00 TGPRO-W2 0.40:1w @B0.50 (final) TPOLY-W2 1:1w @B3.00 (final) FVC-W2 1.04545:1w @B0.957

THAI01C1901A 47.54m units @B1.00 TSI-W2 1:1w @B1.20 (final) GLAND-W4 1.004:1w @B1.00 (final)THAI01C1901B 31.37m units @B1.00 New shares trading GJS-W3 0.437:1w @B1.3722

THAI01P1901A 30.52m units @B1.00 GREEN 103.004m shrs (w) New shares trading GSTEL-W1 0.20:1w @B2.75

TMB01P1810A 112.21m units @B1.00 ASAP 128,417 shrs (w) GSTEL-W2 0.20:1w @B2.75

TPI01C1812A 179.99m units @B1.00 PL 16,951 shrs (w) IEC-W2 1:1w @B0.045

TPI01C1812B 163.25m units @B1.00 S5013C1809A 100m units JAS-W3 @tba

S5013C1809E 120m units @B3.00 JCK-W4 1.073:1w @B3.262 (final)

S5013P1809E 120m units @B1.00 JCK-W5 1:1w @B3.50

ADVA19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 JMART-W2 1:1w @B15.00

BBL19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 JMT-W1 1.01345:1w @B17.761 (final)

CPF19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 MONO-W1 1.015:1w @B2.464

CPN19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 NCL-W2 1:1w @B1.50 (final)

INTU19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 NOK-W1 1.5695:1w @B3.18574

KBAN19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 PPS-W1 1.20:1w @B0.333

KTB19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 RWI-W1 1:1w @B1.60 (final)

LH19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 SMT-W1 1.072:1w @B7.46

TOP19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 SMT-W2 1:1w @B2.10

TRUE19C1901A 120m units @B1.00 SPORT-W5 1:1w @B1.20SPORT-W6 1:1w @B1.50

New shares trading STHAI-W2 1:1w @B1.00

CHUO 134.999m shrs (xr) SUSCO-W1 1:1w @B4.00

SMPC 3.519m shrs (w) TCC-W3 1.23886:1w @B0.807

PTT01C1810A 60m units TCC-W4 1.10801:1w @B0.903

PTTE01P1808A 40m units TCJ-W2 1.02:1w @B9.804

TFG-W1 1:1w @B2.50

TFG-W2 1:1w @B9.50

TH-W2 1:1w @B1.00

TMILL-W3 1.067:1w @B2.813

TMILL-W4 1.067:1w @B2.063

TNITY-W1 1:1w @B5.00

TTA-W5 1.0141:1w @B18.2439

TVD-W2 1:1w @B1.00

U-W1 1:1w @B0.06

VGI-W1 1:1w @B7.00

WAVE-W1 1:1w @B6.00

XO-W1 1:1w @B4.00

New listing - Derivatives WarrantBBL06C1902A 60m units @B1.02

ANAN13C1901A 200m units @B1.00

BEC13C1901A 200m units @B1.00

BIG13C1901A 200m units @B1.00

MONO13C1901A 200m units @B1.00

TTA13C1901A 200m units @B1.00

UNIQ13C1901A 200m units @B1.00

WORK08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

UNIQ08C1906A 80m units @B1.00

TTA08C1906A 80m units @B1.00

TMB08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

THCO08C1906A 80m units @B1.00

SGP08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

SCB08C1901A 80m units @B1.02

S5008P1809A 80m units @B1.00

S5008C1809A 80m units @B1.00

LPN08C1906A 80m units @B1.00

IVL08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

GGC08C1906A 80m units @B1.01

GFPT08C1906A 80m units @B1.00

CPF08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

ANAN23C1901A 25m units @B1.00

BANP23C1901A 100m units @B1.00

CK08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

BJC23C1901A 100m units @B1.00

BIG08C1906A 80m units @B1.00

BPP23C1901A 50m units @B1.00

BEAU08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

COM723C1901A 50m units @B1.00

EA23C1901A 100m units @B1.00

BDMS08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

GGC23C1901A 50m units @B1.00

LH23C1901A 100m units @B1.00

BCP08C1901A 80m units @B1.00

BCH08C1901A 80m units @B1.01

MONO23C1901A 50m units @B1.00

TTA23C1901A 50m units @B1.00

UNIQ23C1901A 50m units @B1.00

BANP08P1901A 80m units @B1.00

AOT08C1901A 80m units @B1.01

TRUE28C1812A 140m units @B1.00

THCO28C1901A 70m units @B1.00

S5028P1809B 63m units @B1.00

MONO28C1901A 125m units @B1.00

KBAN28P1811C 21m units @B1.00

HANA28C1812A 146m units @B1.00

ANAN08C1906A 80m units @B1.00

S5006P1812B 60m units @B1.00

S5006P1809D 60m units @B1.00

S5006C1812B 60m units @B1.02

S5006C1809D 60m units @B1.03

TU06C1902A 60m units @B1.00

TMB06C1902A 60m units @B1.02

SPRC06C1902A 60m units @B1.00

SCC06C1902A 60m units @B1.02

KTB06C1902A 60m units @B1.02

S5008P1809A 80m units @B1.00

S5008C1809A 80m units @B1.00

New shares tradingTWZ 8,010 shrs (W)

BOT : May-18 Trade

Jun 2018

C = conversion, CB = convertible bonds, PP = private placement, p = preferred shares, w = warrants, n = new, STD = stock dividend, NPG = Non-Performing Group Provided by Amika (ext 1229)