market situation and perspectives
DESCRIPTION
Market situation and perspectives. Carlos MARTÍN ÓVILO DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission Dairy Press Tour 2013 Charmey - 27 .10.2013. Milk quota system International competitiveness Internal market. Milk Quota system. Introduced in 1984, for 8 years. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Marketsituation and perspectives
Carlos MARTÍN ÓVILO
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission
Dairy Press Tour 2013Charmey - 27.10.2013
![Page 2: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
2
![Page 3: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
• Introduced in 1984, for 8 years.
• Extended in 1992 and 1999 reforms.
• CAP 2003 reform: Quota until 1 April 2015.
• Health Check 2008: soft landing (5 x 1% in 2009 – 2013).
3
Milk Quota system
![Page 4: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
4
![Page 5: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
EU competitiveness - Milk
5
![Page 6: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Increasing demand:The main driver in the dairy outlook
6
![Page 7: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
EU dairy exports(in 1 000 t)
7
![Page 8: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
EU world market share
8
![Page 9: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
7.7%
9.0%
9.5%
10.2% 10.1%10.3%
10.6% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.8% 10.8%11.0% 11.1%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
2 009 2 010 2 011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
EU exports of dairy products (in milk equivalent) in % of EU Milk production
Source : DG AGRI Medium Term Outlook, Eurostat (Comext)
![Page 10: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
10
![Page 11: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Milk production below quota
11
113
879
113
876
114
244
114
061
114
765
114
574
115
462
115
851
115
948
122
651 13
2 60
2
132
825
135
047
135
191
134
464
137
623
140
480
139
669
100 000
105 000
110 000
115 000
120 000
125 000
130 000
135 000
140 000
145 000
150 000
155 000
160 000
95-9
6
96-9
7
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
08-0
9
09-1
0
10-1
1
11-1
2
12-1
3
13-1
4
14-1
5
1000
Ton
nes
Evolution of EU Milk deliveries and Direct sales versus quota
Fat correction
Total EU Direct Sales
Total EU Deliveries (not incl. fat correction)
Total Quota (Deliveries + Direct Sales)
![Page 12: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Milk production versus quota in the various MS
12
+ 3
.6%
+ 0
.8%
+ 0
.4%
+ 0
.1%
+ 0
.1%
-0
.4%
-0
.4%
-2
.3%
-2
.9%
-3
.0%
-3
.6%
-3
.6%
-6
.5%
-7
.4%
-1
0.1
%
-1
1.7
%
-1
1.8
%
-1
3.8
%
-1
4.3
%
-1
7.5
%
-1
9.9
%
-2
1.0
%
-2
1.7
%
-2
3.7
%
-2
6.5
%
-4
7.3
%
-5
5.3
%
- 65%
- 60%
- 55%
- 50%
- 45%
- 40%
- 35%
- 30%
- 25%
- 20%
- 15%
- 10%
- 5%
- 0%
+ 5%
+ 10%AT CY DK PL DE NL IT LU ES IE BE LV EE FR SI CZ PT UK FI MT SK LT SE HU EL RO BG
in %
of A
vaila
ble
Qu
an
tity
EU Deliveries Overshoot/Under use (in % of quota)
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
![Page 13: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Milk production prospects versus quota
13
![Page 14: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
EU milk production
14
![Page 15: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Cheese prospects
15
![Page 16: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
SMP prospects
16
![Page 17: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Butter prospects
17
![Page 18: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
WMP prospects
18
![Page 19: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
CAP 2020 for milk political deal
1. Milk quota expiry on 31 March 2015 confirmed
2. Public intervention• for butter and SMP
• from 1 March until 31 September each year
• up to 50 000 t for butter at a fixed price of 221.75 €/100 kg
• up to 109 000 t for SMP at a fixed price of 169.80 €/100 kg
• Automatic tendering if and when ceilings reached
3. Private storage aid possible for butter, SMP and certain PDO/PGI cheeses, if necessary
4. Takeover of the Milk Package
5. Exceptional measures against market disturbance, animal diseases, loss of consumer confidence,
6. Minor unused schemes abolished (milk powder for feed and skimmed milk for casein)
7. Reformed direct payments (including possibility for coupled payments) & rural development policy
19
![Page 20: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
• No shocks expected in terms of production at the end of quotas in 2015
• Increasing share of EU milk exported
• Remain competitive at international level will be essential for internal market balance
20
Conclusions
![Page 21: Market situation and perspectives](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070403/56813a42550346895da23200/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Information on milk market:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/milk/index_en.htm
PAC 2020:http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-post-2013/index_en.htm
Conference "The EU dairy sector: developing beyond 2015":
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/events/dairy-conference-2013_en.htm
Thank you for your attention !