1

Market Overview & OutlookLucian Cook

Frances Clacy

2

To what extent has momentum been maintained in the market?

What happens once the stamp duty holiday comes to an end?

And the vaccination programme allows life to get closer to normal?

Will central London price finally recover as international travel resumes?

Source: Savills Research using TwentyCi 3

Market activity over £1m (versus average for month 2017-19)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21prov

Newly Agreed Sales New Instruction

Where’s been hot in the market over £1m?

4

Big

ge

st in

cre

ase

in a

ctivity

5

Big

ge

st in

cre

ase

in a

ctivity

Hampshire

Kent

Oxfordshire

Surrey

Essex

Hertfordshire

Berkshire

Buckinghamshire

Dorset

East Sussex

Somerset

Devon

Worcestershire

Wiltshire

North Yorkshire

Leicestershire

Norfolk

Cornwall

Gloucestershire

Prime village & rural

+5.2%Annual growth

Prime towns & cities

+4.9%Annual growth

Source: Savills prime regional index, Q1 2021 6

Source: Savills prime regional index, Q1 2021 7

A prime regional property worth £1m in March 2007

£800,000

£900,000

£1,000,000

£1,100,000

£1,200,000

£1,300,000

Ma

r-07

Jun

-07

Sep-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun

-08

Sep-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun

-09

Sep-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun

-10

Sep-1

0D

ec-1

0M

ar-

11

Jun

-11

Sep-1

1D

ec-1

1M

ar-

12

Jun

-12

Sep-1

2D

ec-1

2M

ar-

13

Jun

-13

Sep-1

3D

ec-1

3M

ar-

14

Jun

-14

Sep-1

4D

ec-1

4M

ar-

15

Jun

-15

Sep-1

5D

ec-1

5M

ar-

16

Jun

-16

Sep-1

6D

ec-1

6M

ar-

17

Jun

-17

Sep-1

7D

ec-1

7M

ar-

18

Jun

-18

Sep-1

8D

ec-1

8M

ar-

19

Jun

-19

Sep-1

9D

ec-1

9M

ar-

20

Jun

-20

Sep-2

0D

ec-2

0M

ar-

21

City Town Village Rural

£1.29m

£1.20m

£1.06m

£964k

Source: Savills prime London and prime regional indices, Q1 2021 8

Prime house price movements in the year to March

-2.3%

-1.1%-0.7%

2.5%

5.1%

6.8%

8.8%

Outer primeLondon

flats

PrimecentralLondon

flats

PrimecentralLondonhouses

Outer primeLondonhouses

All primeregional

properties

Primecoastal

properties

£2m+ primecountryhouses

Source: Savills prime lettings indices, Q1 2021 9

Similar trends in the rental market

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Ma

r-14

Ju

n-1

4

Sep

-14

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-15

Ju

n-1

5

Sep

-15

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-16

Ju

n-1

6

Sep

-16

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-17

Ju

n-1

7

Sep

-17

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-18

Ju

n-1

8

Sep

-18

De

c-1

8

Ma

r-19

Ju

n-1

9

Sep

-19

De

c-1

9

Ma

r-20

Ju

n-2

0

Sep

-20

De

c-2

0

Ma

r-21

Annual Rental Growth

Prime London Prime commuter belt

Source: Savills prime London and prime regional indices, Q1 2021 10

Relative pricing

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jun

-79

Sep-8

0

De

c-8

1

Ma

r-83

Jun

-84

Sep-8

5

De

c-8

6

Ma

r-88

Jun

-89

Sep-9

0

De

c-9

1

Ma

r-93

Jun

-94

Sep-9

5

De

c-9

6

Ma

r-98

Jun

-99

Sep-0

0

De

c-0

1

Ma

r-03

Jun

-04

Sep-0

5

De

c-0

6

Ma

r-08

Jun

-09

Sep-1

0

De

c-1

1

Ma

r-13

Jun

-14

Sep-1

5

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-18

Jun

-19

Sep-2

0

£ p

er

sq

ftra

tio

Prime London v Prime Regional PricesFrom Our Prime

Indices

Average Prime London property

£1,140per sq ft

Average Prime Regional Property

£411 per sq ft

Ratio

2.78

Source: Savills prime London and prime regional indices, Q1 2021 11

Prime house price movements since June 2014

-6.7%

-22.1%

-18.3%

-3.7%

10.5%

15.7%

0.1%

Outer primeLondon

flats

PrimecentralLondon

flats

PrimecentralLondonhouses

Outer primeLondonhouses

All primeregional

properties

Primecoastal

properties

£2m+ primecountryhouses

Source: Savills Research 12

Transactional activity in the £5m+ London market

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

Num

ber

of sale

s

£5m - £10m £10m+ £5m+ average 2016-2019 (for the same month)

13

Market outlook

Stamp duty continues to

have the capacity to distort the

market Yet activity levels mean an

supply -demand

imbalance will persist into the Autumn market

Brexit risks have been

mitigated by a trade deal

despite uncertainty on

financial services

Even if we see a slight

rebalancing between town and country

marketsWith the prospect that some of the intensity will

ease after the end of June

A prolonged period of low interest rates underpins the capacity for price growth

over the medium term

The 3rd lockdown has

embedded some of the

changed lifestyle drivers

Tempered by the potential for

an increased tax

environment

Continued demand to upsize &

relocate over 2021

14

Price forecasts

Source: Savills Research Note: These forecasts apply to average values in the second hand market. New build values may not move at the same rate.

15

Rental forecasts

Source: Savills Research Note: These forecasts apply to average rents in the second hand market. New build rental values may not move at the same rate.

16

Thank you

© Savills 2021

17