market outlook - waterlea walloon...market outlook walloon walloon offers residents local access to...
TRANSCRIPT
02 Connectivity & Accessibility
04 Infrastructure & Employment
05 Population, Demographics and Education
06 Residential Analysis
06 Rental Analysis
Prepared exclusively for Waterlea Nominee Co.
March2019 Project concept of Waterlea Walloon. Source: RBG Services
MARKET OUTLOOKWALLOONWalloon offers residents local access to employment, education, recreation and retail amenity, and is currently benefiting from high levels of investment within Ipswich.
Logan Mtwy
Mount Gravatt Capalaba Rd
Cunn
ingh
am H
wy
Mai
n St
Brisbane Valley Hwy
Sout
hern
Cro
ss W
ay
Lutw
yche
Rd
Cent
enar
y Hw
y
Warrego Hwy
Ipsw
ich R
d
Milton Rd
Gateway M
twy
Kessels Rd
Paci�c Mtwy
Beau
dese
rt R
d
Ipswich Mtwy
Gympie Rd
Located approximately 8km from the Ipswich CBD, Walloon is an emerging community in the west of the Ipswich Local Government Area (LGA).The Ipswich LGA has been the focus of significant infrastructure investment in recent years, with the Ripley Priority Development Area (PDA) declared in 2014. Just 11km south-east of Walloon, the Ripley PDA covers 4,680 hectares and along with amenity and infrastructure investment and has resulted in a planned expansion of the rail corridor between Ipswich and Springfield.
Population forecasts indicate that the Ipswich LGA will be home to more than 500,000 residents by 2041, a significant increase from the 200,000 residents recorded in 2016. Children under the age of 9 will take up a large demographic of this population, supported by the current abundance of private and state school already established within the Ipswich LGA.
Walloon is approximately 38km from the Brisbane CBD and is conveniently accessible by the Ipswich/Rosewood train line via Walloon Station, as well as by motorway. Considerable investment into transport networks in the Ipswich region will support this growth, providing more efficient public transport connectivity to the Brisbane CBD and other key destinations.
Karrabin
Walloon
Rosewood
Ipswich CBD 15 mins20 21
10
11
12
18
5
6
22 2324
28
27
25 26
1
3 4
7
17
14
1516
8
29
Walloon
CONNECTIVITY & ACCESSIBILITY
Market Outlook Walloon2
Logan Mtwy
Mount Gravatt Capalaba Rd
Cunn
ingh
am H
wy
Mai
n St
Brisbane Valley Hwy
Sout
hern
Cro
ss W
ay
Lutw
yche
Rd
Cent
enar
y Hw
y
Warrego Hwy
Ipsw
ich R
d
Milton Rd
Gateway M
twy
Kessels Rd
Paci�c Mtwy
Beau
dese
rt R
d
Ipswich Mtwy
Gympie Rd
INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT01 Amberley RAAF Airbase
02 Swanbank Powerplant
03 Ipswich Hospital
04 St Andrews Ipswich Private Hospital
ENTERTAINMENT, SHOPPING & DINING 05 IGA Walloon
06 Walloon Saloon
07 Yamanto Village
08 Brassall Shopping Centre
09 Silkstone Village
RECREATION & GREENSPACE 10 Henry Lawson Bicentennial Park
11 Tall Gums Sports Centre
12 Rosewood Soccer Club
13 Briggs Road Sporting Complex
14 Ivor Marsden Sports Complex
15 Ipswich Indoor Sports Centre
16 Ipswich Golf Course
17 RAAF Amberley Golf Course
18 Rosewood Golf Course
19 Ipswich Nature Centre
EDUCATION20 Mount Marrow State School
21 Walloon State School
22 West Moreton Anglican College
23 The Ipswich State High School
24 Brassall State School
25 Ipswich Girls Grammar School
26 Ipswich Grammar School
27 Ipswich West State School
28 Leichardt State School
29 USQ Ipswich
30 Ipswich Central State School
31 TAFE QLD Ipswich
Train station
Dinmore
GoodnaIpswich
Booval
30
31
13
19
9
02
Brisbane CBD 45 mins
Airport 50 mins
Prepared exclusively for Waterlea Nominee Co. 3
EMPLOYMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE & EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT AT 2016
EMPLOYMENT AT 2036
INFRASTRUCTURE
01 MAJOR TRANSPORT PROJECTS PLANNED FOR IPSWICH $12 billion
47 projects valued at more than $12 billion are planned in and around the Ipswich LGA over 23 years to ease congestion and move people more efficiently.
02 AMBERLEY RAAF BASE EXPANSION $1.2 billion - Completion Date 2020
Amberley RAAF Base expansion included new headquarters, hangar, maintenance and warehouse facilities as well as a new simulator and training facility.
03 ST ANDREW’S IPSWICH PRIVATE HOSPITAL EXPANSION $64 million - Completion Date 2020
An extension to the private hospital that will provide almost 8,000sqm of new space, as well as the first private Emergency Centre within the Ipswich region. Construction will also include two new buildings, a multi-level carpark and internal changes and refurbishments. In total, the expansion will increase the capacity of the hospital from 97 to 178 beds.
04 DEEBING HEIGHTS SHOPPING CENTRE $10 million - Completion Date 2018
A single storey shopping centre that includes a supermarket, ten specialty stores and a café.
05 IPSWICH-RIPLEY VALLEY TRANSPORT CORRIDOR $300 million - Completion Date 2018
Queensland State Government has planned and preserved land for a passenger rail line extension between Ipswich and Springfield, via Ripley. New stations are planned for Ripley, Ripley North and Ripley Town Centre.
06 RIPLEY TOWN CENTRE $1.5 billion
Stage 1 ($40 million) of the Town Centre was completed mid-2018 and is anchored by a Coles Supermarket, along with 20 specialty stores, medical centre and commercial office space. Future stages are planned as population growth creates demand.
07 GREATER SPRINGFIELD TOWN CENTREBuilding on the $154 million Orion Springfield Centre expansion in 2015, concept plans for the nearby Greater Springfield Town Centre include land uses such as residential, education, retirement and retail. The overall concept includes more than 2.6million sqm of CBD gross floor area. The $85 million Stage 1 of the Mater Private Hospital Springfield is open and provides 80-beds, four operating theatres, day surgery and cancer care centre.
Note: Springfield consists of the SA2's of Springfield and Springfield Lakes
148,399 13,521 4,935
Brisbane CBD Ipswich Central Spring�eld
209,242 25,142 7,907
Brisbane CBD Ipswich Central Spring�eld
AMBERLEY RAAF AIRBASEThe RAAF Airbase at Amberley is a major employment hub for the Ipswich LGA, employing around 4,200 residents as of 2015. Job opportunities within RAAF Amberley are estimated to grow to 7,000 by 2020 when the $1.2 billion expansion is complete, a creation of 2,800 jobs over four years.
AUSTRALIA TRADE COASTThe Australia TradeCoast (ATC), incorporates the Port of Brisbane, Brisbane Airport and surrounding industrial areas and is the largest and fastest-growing industrial and commercial precinct in Australia. Employment in the ATC is forecast to increase from 60,000 employees in 2016 to over 110,000 employees in 2026, equivalent to a 6.3% growth in jobs per annum.Sources: Australian Department of Defence and Brisbane City Council
Market Outlook Walloon4
POPULATION GROWTHEstimates from the Queensland Government Statisticians Office (QGSO) forecast significant increase in the population of the Ipswich LGA between 2016 and 2036.The population is projected to grow at a rate of 4.5% per annum over 20 years. This is equivalent to an additional 14,011 new residents residing within the Ipswich LGA every year. This will increase the population from 200,123 residents in 2016 to 480,339 in 2036.
The strongest level of population growth forecast within the LGA is between 2016 and 2026 when growth will peak at a rate of 5.0% per annum.
AGE DISTRIBUTIONBreaking down population growth in the Ipswich LGA by age brackets, the strongest demographic in 2016 was children up to 9 years (16.9%), followed by 30-34 year olds who made up 8% of the population.
Future forecasts for the Ipswich LGA up to 2036 show that children up to 9 years will still be the largest age demographic (at 14.7%), however the next largest age bracket will have shifted to 35-39 year olds and 40-45 years olds (both making up 7.1% of the population).
EDUCATION - IPSWICH LGA
POPULATION, DEMOGRAPHICS & EDUCATION
Bremer State High School
Ipswich Grammar School
Ipswich Girls Grammar School
Ipswich Central State School
University of Southern Queensland (Ipswich Campus)
STUDENT ENROLMENTS
WHO LIVES IN WALLOON CATCHMENT?Walloon Catchment
Ipswich LGA
Average age 38.6 33.4Aged 40-59 37% 22%Gen Y resident 15.9% 22.8Families with children 37.3% 46.1%Family households 78% 76.2%Rented Dwellings 27.6% 40.6%
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS Census 2016Note: Catchment includes the suburbs of Walloon, Thagoona and Rosewood
0
200,000
100,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Resi
dent
pro
ject
ed p
opul
atio
n
Year
141,986
200,123
480,339
200
620
07
200
820
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
203
020
3120
3220
3320
34
2035
2036
Prepared by Urbis; Source: QGSO, 2017
0
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
5,000
40,000
Num
ber o
f Res
iden
ts
Age Brackets
0-4 5-9
10-1
4
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30
-34
2016 2026 2036
35-3
9
40
-44
45
-49
50-5
4
55-5
9
60
-64
65
-69
70-7
4
75-7
9
80-8
4
85+
Prepared by Urbis; Source: ABS and QGSO, 2017
Prepared by Urbis; Source: Dept. Education and TrainingNote: Student enrolments as of 2017
4.5% GROWTH IN POPULATION P.A
1,866683683
852715715
1,5521,552
Prepared exclusively for Waterlea Nominee Co. 5
This increasing population as well as Ipswich’s accessibility to major employment nodes bodes well for residential markets. As the charts on the right reflect, house and land sales volumes are consistently recording long term growth.
HOUSING MARKETHouses within the Ipswich LGA have recorded a consistent increase in sales volume and median price, in both the last 12 months as well as over the last 20 years. At the end of the September quarter in 2018, the Ipswich LGA recorded a peak median price of $349,900.
The Walloon Catchment has displayed a similar increase in median sale prices, with the median price at the end of September 2018 recorded at $345,000, closely comparable to that of the Ipswich LGA. The 12 months leading to September 2018 recorded an annual price growth of 3.0% for houses within the Walloon Catchment, higher than the Ipswich LGA which recorded growth of 2.6% over the same period. Sales volumes have also shown consistent growth in the catchment, with predictions anticipating that sales volumes will increase more significantly with higher investment in the area along with an increase in population.
In the long term, the Walloon Catchment has displayed significant growth figures, recording a 7.3% increase per annum over the last 20 years to September 2018. This is consistent with the Ipswich LGA’s growth of 7.3% growth over the same period.
LAND MARKETThe Ipswich LGA has followed a cyclical trajectory of land sales over the last two decades, with the large increases in sales volumes coinciding with the release of new land estates. While sales volumes have recorded ups and downs, the median price has remained stable across the LGA, recording a peak price of $195,000 at the end of September 2018.
The Walloon Catchment has largely tracked the movements of the Ipswich LGA, with the large peaks of sales volumes experienced in 2003 and 2007 attributed to the release of new land estates (a significant amount of new land releases coming from the suburbs of Ripley and South Ripley). Land sales over the 12 months leading to September 2018 recorded a small median price growth of 0.3% in the Catchment, while five and twenty-year figures present significant growth of 4.0% and 7.5% per annum respectively. The median price for land across the Catchment recorded a price of $193,000 at the end of the September quarter in 2018.
HOUSE 20 YEAR SALES CYCLE
1-YEAR PRICE GROWTH 20-YEAR PRICE GROWTH
LAND 20 YEAR SALES CYCLE
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$150,000
$50,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
0
100
50
150
200
250
350
300
Med
ian
sale
pric
e
Num
ber o
f tra
nsac
tions
$345,000
1998
1999
200
020
01
200
220
03
200
420
05
200
620
07
200
820
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2018
2017
2016
number of transactions median sale price
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$150,000
$50,000
$250,000
0
100
50
150
200
250
300
Med
ian
sale
pric
e
Num
ber o
f tra
nsac
tions
$193,000
1998
1999
200
020
01
200
220
03
200
420
05
200
620
07
200
820
09
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2018
2017
2016
number of transactions median sale price
MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH - HOUSE
RESIDENTIAL ANALYSIS
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinderNote: Walloon Catchment includes Amberley, Brassall, Churchill, Deebing Heights, Ebenezer, Haigslea, Ironbark, Karrabin, Leichhardt, Marburg, One Mile, Purga, Ripley, Rosewood, South Ripley, Thagoona, Walloon, Willowbank, Wulkuraka, and Yamanto
Prepared by Urbis; Source: APM PriceFinderNote: Walloon Catchment includes Amberley, Brassall, Churchill, Deebing Heights, Ebenezer, Haigslea, Ironbark, Karrabin, Leichhardt, Marburg, One Mile, Purga, Ripley, Rosewood, South Ripley, Thagoona, Walloon, Willowbank, Wulkuraka, and Yamanto
1-YEAR GROWTH P.A 20-YEAR GROWTH P.A
2.6%P.A
7.3%P.A
P.A3.0%Ipswich
Walloon
7.3%P.A
1-YEAR GROWTH P.A 20-YEAR GROWTH P.A
2.6%P.A
7.3%P.A
P.A3.0%Ipswich
Walloon
7.3%P.A
1-YEAR GROWTH P.A 20-YEAR GROWTH P.A
2.6%P.A
7.3%P.A
P.A3.0%Ipswich
Walloon
7.3%P.A
1-YEAR GROWTH P.A 20-YEAR GROWTH P.A
2.6%P.A
7.3%P.A
P.A3.0%Ipswich
Walloon
7.3%P.A
Market Outlook Walloon6
HOUSES HAVE DISPLAYED STRONG MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTAL GROWTH IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS, WITH A 4.5% PER ANNUM INCREASE IN RENTS TO SEPTEMBER 2018.
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTAL GROWTH
Four-bedroom houses have experienced a significant amount of growth in weekly rental medians, with a 2.5% per annum increase in the last three years and a 2.0% per annum increase in the last seven years.As of September 2018, houses are receiving median weekly rents of $345 and $380 within the Walloon Catchment.
As displayed on the right, when comparing this rental growth against the larger Ipswich LGA it is apparent that the 4306 postcode has significantly outdone the wider LGA when considering rental houses. The wider Ipswich LGA recorded no growth in the 12 months prior to September 2018 for three-bedroom product, while four-bedroom houses experienced a consistent 1.4% over the last 12 months. Current weekly median rents for the Ipswich LGA are slightly lower than the Walloon postcode, recording $310 and $370 for three and four-bedroom houses respectively.
These rents highlight the recent strong demand for houses within the Walloon Catchment.
to September Quarter 2018
WALLOON CATCHMENT
RENTAL ANALYSIS
AN ANALYSIS OF NEW AND ESTABLISHED HOUSES WITHIN THE WALLOON POSTCODE OF 4306 HAS DEMONSTRATED STRONG GROWTH RETURNS FOR MEDIAN WEEKLY RENTS. Prepared by Urbis; Source: Residential Tenancies Authority (RTA) Sep Qtr 2018
Note: Data derived from three and four bed houses.
4.5%
2.5%2.5%
2.0%2.0%
2.0%2.0%
1.4%
0.9%0.9%
1.6%1.6%
1 year growth
3 year growth p.a
7 year growth p.a
4.5%
2.5%2.5%
2.0%2.0%
2.0%2.0%
1.4%
0.9%0.9%
1.6%1.6%
1 year growth
3 year growth p.a
7 year growth p.a
4.5%
2.5%2.5%
2.0%2.0%
2.0%2.0%
1.4%
0.9%0.9%
1.6%1.6%
1 year growth
3 year growth p.a
7 year growth p.a
4.5%
2.5%2.5%
2.0%2.0%
2.0%2.0%
1.4%
0.9%0.9%
1.6%1.6%
1 year growth
3 year growth p.a
7 year growth p.a
4.5%
2.5%2.5%
2.0%2.0%
2.0%2.0%
1.4%
0.9%0.9%
1.6%1.6%
1 year growth
3 year growth p.a
7 year growth p.a
IPSWICH LGA
Prepared exclusively for Waterlea Nominee Co. 7Prepared exclusively for Waterlea Nominee Co. 7
This publication is prepared on the instruction of Waterlea Nominee Co. and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by known, or unknown, risks and uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared for the sole use of Waterlea Nominee Co. and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers.
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